~ The Wolf Matchup Center

[M.C. Pee-Pants]

i like how you gave 3 high tiers to pick from and falco somehow snuck his way in.

Maby cause I dont wanna take about those three characters

 

[Choice]

i do =/ everyone should leave falco alone. he's just trying to eat his bread.

 

[Deleted member]

Pikachu for High tier discussion.

 

[M.C. Pee-Pants]

i do =/ everyone should leave falco alone. he's just trying to eat his bread.

I dont got a problem with pika i just think falcos much harder to face or is it just me?

 

[Ishiey]

I don't find Falco to be that bad :o But you can vote for any high-tier lol, just trying to narrow it down so we can actually decide which ones to tackle next.

Lucas wins for low tier btw, so only suggest for high and mid tiers

 

[Choice]

noooooo, we should discuss the wolf mu. every knows they secretly want to.

 

[Gah777]

High: Diddy
Mid: Sheik

 

[Choice]

if we do use numbers i want to push for a number system out of 10. it'll allow for us to avoid situations like this:
personA:"oh i think its 60-40"
personB:"nah its more like 65-35"
*30 posts of debate*
to me, those numbers say the same thing just one of em allows for one side to feel better about themselves so then debating regarding which one is more accurate is simply a waste of time.

5-5 even
4-6 disadvantage
3-7 hard disadvantage
etc.
what we could do is discuss what each of those numbers mean exactly before we start discussing what the number for this mu is. possibly move that discussion to the main mu discussion thread? what disadvantage and hard disadvantage mean to me may not be the same as the next person. same with what my definition of even is.

imo this match up is 4/6 d3 favor.

 

[Ishiey]

Moved Choice's post, because even though I feel like the 5-point system works fine with the definitions in the OP (PLEASE READ THESE IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY) it'd be stupid of me not to poll everyone on it after two people brought it up

So. Question is: 5-point or 10-point matchup numbers?

Yes I know numbers suck, but it's the best thing for looking at-a-glance when you want to pick up another character for a matchup so it's pretty helpful to have out there :x My personal opinion is that the 5-point system mentioned in the OP is more effective, and that a fair amount of Wolf's matchups will fall in-between values of the 10-point system (ex. Snake... 5:5 might be a bit of a stretch, but 4:6 means he's as bad as D3... where's the middle ground ;___;).

 

[Deleted member]

I'm fine with the 5-point system.

 

[Choice]

5 point system inherently makes more discussion on the numbers though. also when do you ever realistically play out 100 matches? If a character really has advantage should it not be seen over the course of 10 matches?

 

[Deleted member]

Every...

Single...

Night!

 

[Ishiey]

Why do we play sets as best of 3? Shouldn't one game be enough to determine a winner?

:3

 

[Kinetic]

Why do we play sets as best of 3? Shouldn't one game be enough to determine a winner?

:3

I don't see why we don't. That sounds hardcore. One set is for real men imo. The japanese do it, and they are fierce as ****.


Also, JJ brought a good point up about matios (I just invented that) last night on xat. Does 4:6 mean D3 wins 6 out of 10 games, or 6 out of 10 sets? Like...If its 6 out of 10 games then 4:6 is actually a pretty bad disadvantage, you only have a 35% chance to win a set.

 

[Ishiey]

Sets due to counterpick stages, imo.

 

[Gah777]

I think we should be on the 1 point system, like the Pika boards.

 

[Juushichi]

Why not just use the big five? Heavy Advantage, Advantage, Even, Disadvantage, Heavy Disadvantage? Is a number system super necessary? (Hi Wolf mains!)

 

[Gah777]

Why not just use the big five? Heavy Advantage, Advantage, Even, Disadvantage, Heavy Disadvantage? Is a number system super necessary? (Hi Wolf mains!)

nononononono. This oversimplifies things. Things need to get way more complex. I am going to propose a .5 point system. Some matchups may be extremely close but give a slight percent to one character. For example: Pikachu Vs. Wolf. One could say it's a 55-45 match in Wolfs favor, when in reality it is a 56.5-43.5 match in Wolfs favor. You see what I mean?

Spoiler

Sarcasm btw. I totally agree with the "Big Five". Also, hi.

 

[castorpollux]

Sets due to counterpick stages, imo.

if it's sets then metaknight has an advantage over the entire cast

 

[Kinetic]

if it's sets then metaknight has an advantage over the entire cast

He doesn't already?

Well except fawks of course, amirite?

 

[castorpollux]

nobody can counterpick mk, mk can counterpick everyone

therefore mk has an advantage over every character in a game (set wise)

 

[Choice]

yea thats true. its so gay how mk's just ban neutrals. neutrals shouldnt be bannable =p

 

[Ishiey]

**** MK. But matchup ratios should take stage choices/CPs into account, they're pretty important :o Auto-win on a certain stage for a matchup that's 60-40 on every other legal stage seriously helps out the matchup by statistically making it 64-36 the other way :3

 

[Choice]

what does 64-36 even mean?

 

[Ishiey]

It means 40:60 on every stage but 100:0 on your counterpick.

One game is already an instant win. You only need to win one of the other two games. .4 + (.6*.4) gives you a 64% chance of winning the set, hence 64:36.

:3

 

[Choice]

you just made that up. but i like it, you'll do well in college.

 

[Ishiey]

Nah dude, trufax. Don't make me spell it out for you

Not that anyone has a 100:0 matchup on any stage (or at least not when Wolf is involved), but just for the sake of example. Counterpick stages are important :3

 

[Choice]

ok, lets see here. i've never taken statistics so i'm gonna be coming up with all this math from scratch so if anything is like "wtf?" its caz i didnt know what i was actually supposed to do.

let us calculate the probability for "you" to win a 2/3 set of super smash brothers brawl wii edition.

all the following is given as true:
-sets are won by being the first to win 2 games.
-you have a 60% chance of winning every game
-if you lost the previous match, you instead have a 100% chance of winning a game (i think this is what you're saying)

in 100 sets, game 1 you win 60 times and 40 times lose.

Now lets look at all the sets where you won game 1.
-Of the 60 sets you won game 1, game 2 you win 36 times and lose 24 times. (sets won so far 36/100)
-Of the 24 sets you lost game 2 after winning game 1, game 3 you win 24 times and lose 0 times. (sets won so far 60/100)

Now lets look at all the sets where you lost game 1.
-Of the 40 sets you lost game 1, game 2 you win 40 times and lose 0 times.
-Of the 40 sets you won game 2 after losing game 1, game 3 you win 24 times and lose 16 times. (sets won 84/100)

so then shouldn't that be a match up ratio of 84-16?

 

[Ishiey]

ok, lets see here. i've never taken statistics so i'm gonna be coming up with all this math from scratch so if anything is like "wtf?" its caz i didnt know what i was actually supposed to do.

let us calculate the probability for "you" to win a 2/3 set of super smash brothers brawl wii edition.

all the following is given as true:
-sets are won by being the first to win 2 games.
-you have a 60% chance of winning every game
-if you lost the previous match, you instead have a 100% chance of winning a game (i think this is what you're saying)

in 100 sets, game 1 you win 60 times and 40 times lose.

Now lets look at all the sets where you won game 1.
-Of the 60 sets you won game 1, game 2 you win 36 times and lose 24 times. (sets won so far 36/100)
-Of the 24 sets you lost game 2 after winning game 1, game 3 you win 24 times and lose 0 times. (sets won so far 60/100)

Now lets look at all the sets where you lost game 1.
-Of the 40 sets you lost game 1, game 2 you win 40 times and lose 0 times.
-Of the 40 sets you won game 2 after losing game 1, game 3 you win 24 times and lose 16 times. (sets won 84/100)

so then shouldn't that be a match up ratio of 84-16?

Wait... Only chance of losing the set is losing games 1 and 3, which is .6*.6, right?... so... what? @__@

If you win game 1 (.4 chance), you effectively won the set. If you lose, you automatically win game 2 so it's lose game 1 * win game 3, which is .6*.4, giving you a total win of .4 + .24 = .64

64:36

You messed up by starting with we win 60 of the 100 first games :x

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I think for the ratios it would be best to take the "out of ten" system because it has more practical application than any other ratio and it's the most useful one out there. The rest is too arbitrary to be useful and can be misleading, especially the distinction between stuff like 60/40 and 55/45.

Quoting for emphasis.

 

[Ishiey]

[collapse=Matchup ratio descriptions]50:50 - Even
Very even matchup. Definition should be fairly obvious.

55:45 – Slight Advantage
No character has a true solid advantage, but one has seemingly better/easier tools,
or one character profits more from winning a rock/paper/scissors guessing game.

60:40 – Advantage / Soft Counter
One character has clearly better tools in the matchup.
However, the other character does have responses him,
and the matchup is still winnable through outplaying the opponent
or out spacing his tools and countering with the weaker ones well placed.

65:35 - Counter
One character has options that shut down the other's options.
Counterpicking should be considered, but it's not completely unwinnable,
but rather simply requires one player to far outplay the other.

70:30 – Hard Counter
Something about the character in the advantage completely shuts down
the other character. Counterpicking is heavily recommended -
or rely on them not knowing the matchup and you knowing it incredibly well.

Anything past 70:30 – No. Just, no.
Pretty much unwinnable matchups like Dedede vs Donkey Kong.[/collapse]

Quoting for emphasis as well :x

It's not that I don't understand your point, and it definitely helps when you want a very clear-cut matchup definition, but... some things are in between, y'know? :x And I just really feel that Wolf has a lot of matchups that waver in the 55:45 range either way, but putting it as even or 6:4 would simply be wrong

Matchup numbers are stupid. In the collapse stuff I posted, want to just use even, slight advantage, advantage, counter, strong counter, and ****? If that helps out somehow, idk X_x

 

[~ Gheb ~]

And I just really feel that Wolf has a lot of matchups that waver in the 55:45 range either way, but putting it as even or 6:4 would simply be wrong

How is it "wrong" though? It's only wrong by your definitions, which I don't like because they are too arbitrary to be a helpful guideline imo.

 

[Choice]

oh wait so you're saying you have a 40% chance of winning on every stage but a 100% chance of winning on your counterpick.

 

[castorpollux]

Jonny Jenq 5:41 am
.4*.4+.4*.6
+
.6*.4
tahts the probability
of you winning
if u have a 100% on ur cp
if ur 40:60
so if u have a 100% win on a cp
but 40:60 everywhere else
u actualyl have an advantage
how ironic is that?

Attendre79 5:42 am
16+ 24?

Jonny Jenq 5:42 am
okay

Attendre79 5:42 am
+ another 25?

Jonny Jenq 5:42 am
this is how you do the probability

Attendre79 5:42 am
*24

Jonny Jenq 5:42 am
yes

Jonny Jenq 5:42 am
okay here ill explain

Attendre79 5:42 am
oh ok

Jonny Jenq 5:43 am
if you win a set
there are only a certain number of combinations to do that
win win

Attendre79 5:43 am
mhm

Jonny Jenq 5:43 am
win lose win
lose win win
right?

Attendre79 5:43 am
yea

Jonny Jenq 5:43 am
probability of win win
is .4*.4

Attendre79 5:43 am
mhm

Jonny Jenq 5:43 am
probability of lose win win
is
.6*1*.4
1 because its ur 100% cp

Attendre79 5:43 am
yea

Jonny Jenq 5:43 am
and lose win win
is
.6*1*.4
woops
win lose win
is
.4*.6*1
and you add them all together
to create the event that you win the set

Attendre79 5:44 am
ic ic ic

Jonny Jenq 5:44 am
so if you have a 100% win on a cp
but 40:60 everywhere else

Attendre79 5:45 am
so what he was trying to say then was like you can swap a 40-60 into your favor?

Jonny Jenq 5:45 am
u actually have a 64:36 advantage
yes
lol
to win the set

Attendre79 5:45 am
man ok so mk has pretty much a 100% on so many characters

Jonny Jenq 5:45 am
exactly
so HE HAS AN ADVANTAGE
OVER EVERY CHARACTER

 

[Choice]

we should come up with 3 numbers for our match ups then.

chance of winning on starter stage
chance of winning on their CP
chance of winning on our CP

it'd be more accurate and i'd actually be happy with what the mu ratio says. =p
i had forgotten why i really hated mu ratios but now i do. its cuz they only take into consideration neutral stages which isnt the entire set. i know no other boards do this, but that doesnt mean we shouldnt be the pioneers.

 

[castorpollux]

we should come up with 3 numbers for our match ups then.

chance of winning on starter stage
chance of winning on their CP
chance of winning on our CP

it'd be more accurate and i'd actually be happy with what the mu ratio says. =p
i had forgotten why i really hated mu ratios but now i do. its cuz they only take into consideration neutral stages which isnt the entire set. i know no other boards do this, but that doesnt mean we shouldnt be the pioneers.

wolf? pioneers?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[Deleted member]

We should go with what most of the other character boards use, so when they update the overall MU chart there will be less confusion.

And I think it would be dumb to have Wolf only with even or 60:40 MU's. We need that "5" in there.

 

[Ishiey]

How is it "wrong" though? It's only wrong by your definitions, which I don't like because they are too arbitrary to be a helpful guideline imo.

Hm. You win this one :x lol. I'll say something about this at the end of this post.

wolf? pioneers?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Hey :< lol

I actually like that idea. And then we could average it out for an "overall" matchup ratio? Which honestly, if we were doing that, I would be significantly more comfortable adopting a 10-point scale for each matchup (although I'd still want to mathematically calculate an overall average ). We could even break down the stages into groups for what the ratio will be around on a certain set :o Thoughts?

Like this kinda, except with common neutral stages bolded or something:

STAGE RATIOS

4/6 - Halberd, CS, FD
5/5 - SV, RC, Lylat
6/4 - Norfair, Japes, Brinstar
etc.

 

[castorpollux]

ishieymoro is 100% on japes and therefore had a 64% advantage against Doom

 

[Goldenadept]

that seems like a lot of work but if everyone is willing to consider all the factors that'd go into a wolf MU then it would probably help us create a much more detailed and therefore accurate ratio on how he matches up.

i think we should give it a try for sure, lazy as we are