The Ultimate Smash Bros. 4 Character Analysis Topic. (Retro Characters Analysis Is Up!)

[ChronoBound]

I finished my commentary on the confirmation of Mega Man. Should I post it, or should I wait until I have finished with my commentary and analysis on the confirmations of Villager and Wii Fit Trainer?

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I finished my commentary on the confirmation of Mega Man. Should I post it, or should I wait until I have finished with my commentary and analysis on the confirmations of Villager and Wii Fit Trainer?

For the megaman part did you finish sonic and snake and a random namco character

 

[ChronoBound]

For the megaman part did you finish sonic and snake and a random namco character

No, I did not do the analyses for Sonic, Snake, and Pac-Man (the generic "Namco character" category is simply going to become Pac-Man). What I completed was basically an analysis and assessment about Mega Man's confirmation, and what it means for other prospective newcomers for Smash 4.

 

[Jaedrik]

'Ey, yo, Chrono, I love what you're doing, while I've only discovered the thread recently (A week prior to this post), some good stuff here.
I am going to suggest you add Anna to the Fire Emblem section, I would love to see your thoughts on her in an in depth analysis.

 

[BKupa666]

I'd like to see the Mega Man analysis now, so as to give more focus to the impact of each individual newcomer. My takeaways from the Mega Man reveal are one, the bar for third parties is sky high, and two, Sakurai is aware of the same fan requests that we are, and is listening to them to at least some extent.

 

[TheDivineDeity]

The My Unit Avatar seems like a horrible choice, because if they choose the default route and give him the basic look (white hair, male). then it robs him of all his customization that a player can relate to.

Apparently, from what I know, you can greatly customize the My Unit Avatar to your own personal needs, including hair, facial features, and voice. This gives the Unit a form of customization that can relate to the player. Here, by having the Unit relegate itself to just a default male Avatar, like the Villager, it defeats the purpose of the entire Avatar - to connect with the player.

Yes, yes, I know - the Villager is the exact same example of a default male Avatar that's not customization. Here's the thing though - for the most part, with maybe some choices in hairstyles, all you can really do with it is change its shirts. That's almost it. Not that deep of customization. That's why he can fill the role of the default Avatar. But to have not only ANOTHER default Avatar, but also ANOTHER customization Avatar being unable to customize... it seems wrong. just wrong. I don't know if I would sit well with a hooded Avatar.

That's just my two cents, though.

 

[ThatPersonGuy]

I can't believe it... FANFICTION.NET AND DEVIANTART is used as a reference for popularity...

Popularity is popularity, no matter how you get it, sorry to say. If popularity only mattered in certain ways, then many things wouldn't be popular. Sad to say, but those inferior peasants who think their sloppy Link/Ike makeout session fantasies make for quality writing are human too, and their liking means something. The fact that there are so many people willing to support Ness/Lucas's inclusion and immense backlash at the idea of them being cut is proof as well.

 

[ThatPersonGuy]

You know what, scratch that. I'm a bit late to the party here.

 

[SmashChu]

No, I did not do the analyses for Sonic, Snake, and Pac-Man (the generic "Namco character" category is simply going to become Pac-Man). What I completed was basically an analysis and assessment about Mega Man's confirmation, and what it means for other prospective newcomers for Smash 4.

I'd either keep it generic Namco or add in Tales. One thing your analysis noted was Pac-Man doesn't come up very often and Tales characters are the ones that do. The Namco section (assuming we get any Namco character) is far more of a toss up and isn't in Pac-Man's favor.

 

[Alban712]

I think you should post Megaman's impact on roster first, so we can discuss it. Then, we can successively discuss the other two

 

[Robert of Normandy]

The My Unit Avatar seems like a horrible choice, because if they choose the default route and give him the basic look (white hair, male). then it robs him of all his customization that a player can relate to.

Apparently, from what I know, you can greatly customize the My Unit Avatar to your own personal needs, including hair, facial features, and voice. This gives the Unit a form of customization that can relate to the player. Here, by having the Unit relegate itself to just a default male Avatar, like the Villager, it defeats the purpose of the entire Avatar - to connect with the player.

Sure, Robin/The Avatar/My Unit has a customizable appearance. However, his backstory, character, and abilities are just as set in stone as any other FE character. Also, the previous My Unit(from FE12) was customizeable(even more than FE13's since you can change their default class and background), and yet IS had no problem creating a default version for both the Male and Female MU to use in official artwork. No reason Sakurai/IS could't do the same if they really wanted to.

 

[ChronoBound]

I just finished doing massive edits to my topic. I edited each series that I have already posted in light of the profound new information we now have, as well as the first post in the topic.

I also added an entirely new section to this topic, Newcomer/Veteran Commentary. Its basically commentary on each Necomer/Veteran that got confirmed since the unveil (aside from the nine veterans we got for the unveil), its going to become a regular feature now. However, I do think some confirmations (such as Yoshi, Peach, Diddy Kong, etc.) won't give us anything much to add to speculation in regards to other characters, so they may not get their own entries if they do end up being confirmed down the line.

Also, I have even better good news. Starting next week, I will begin posting a new series analysis each week again.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Very mild tidbit, but when you were going on that tangent on series that don't have a character when talking about Wii Fit Trainer, you seem to have skipped out on stuff like Shulk and Takamaru for no particular reason.

Also, watch out for the Chrom Quality Control, they're going to be mad at your statements.

 

[ChronoBound]

Very mild tidbit, but when you were going on that tangent on series that don't have a character when talking about Wii Fit Trainer, you seem to have skipped out on stuff like Shulk and Takamaru for no particular reason.

Also, watch out for the Chrom Quality Control, they're going to be mad at your statements.

I must have forgotten about Shulk when writing it. I will edit it to include him.

Takamaru is not a part of it, since I consider him a retro character as opposed to a character that is a part of an active series.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Takamaru is not a part of it, since I consider him a retro character as opposed to a character that is a part of an active series.

Yet you consider Lip on par with those other characters...

It's either bundle them together or separate them, don't pull double standard crap. Personally I would go with the former considering that anything not established on the roster would be considered "new" by technicality standards. Never did like that "retro" double standard anyway. But whatever, this is your analyses, not mine.

 

[Autumn ♫]

I think Vaati deserves to be with the other big name Zelda characters you have, as he seems like he would be more likely than characters like Young Link and Ghirihim and is about as important as Tingle and Impa.

 

[ChronoBound]

I think Vaati deserves to be with the other big name Zelda characters you have, as he seems like he would be more likely than characters like Young Link and Ghirihim and is about as important as Tingle and Impa.

Vaati will be lucky to show up as even a sticker in Smash 4. Ghirahim is basically Vaati with a personality anyway. He is definitely not on the same level as Tingle (who has spinoff games) or Impa (who has been a re-occurring character since the very beginning of the series and had a major role in the latest Zelda game).

He will get his own analysis in the non-contender section for the Zelda series though.

 

[Opossum]

Also, watch out for the Chrom Quality Control, they're going to be mad at your statements.

Not mad, per say. I just happen to respectfully disagree. I mean, he said it in a more calm and unbiased way, after all.

Overall, a really nice set of analysis, Chrono. It's really nice to see something this in-depth, and for these to finally make their long-awaited comeback.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Vaati will be lucky to show up as even a sticker in Smash 4. Ghirahim is basically Vaati with a personality anyway. He is definitely not on the same level as Tingle (who has spinoff games) or Impa (who has been a re-occurring character since the very beginning of the series and had a major role in the latest Zelda game).

He will get his own analysis in the non-contender section for the Zelda series though.

Vaati is the 2nd most important and reoccuring villain in Zelda, can have a very unique moveset, gives Toon Link a villain for the Toon series,has a fairly large chance of reappearing again, and is the 3rd most wanted Zelda newcomer.

Tingle's not too important in the main Zelda games though. Only in his spin-off's so wouldn't it just be better for him to represent his own franchise?

As for Impa, she's only majorly important in OoT, which Sheik is a more important character in, and SS.

As for Ghirahim, he's only appeared in one game so far and wasn't even the main villain of that game. I also don't see how Ghirihim is basicly Vaati with a personality.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Not mad, per say. I just happen to respectfully disagree. I mean, he said it in a more calm and unbiased way, after all.

Well it wasn't pointing at you in particular, it was more like pointing at the... how do I put this... less bright people. You know the ones.

 

[---]

Nice to see an update. Was getting sick of reading/watching all the crap analyses from various gaming websites and Youtube since the original trailer.

 

[Opossum]

Well it wasn't pointing at you in particular, it was more like pointing at the... how do I put this... less bright people. You know the ones.

Ah, okay. And thanks for the compliment?

 

[ChronoBound]

Vaati is the 2nd most important and reoccuring villain in Zelda, can have a very unique moveset, gives Toon Link a villain for the Toon series,has a fairly large chance of reappearing again, and is the 3rd most wanted Zelda newcomer.

The problem is that is has been close to nine years since Vaati's last appearance in a Zelda game, and despite two "Toon Link" games having been made since then, he did not make any appearance. He was not even referenced in Brawl despite that game having been released only a few years after his three game appearances. There is a very good chance that Vaati may never be revisited in the series again.

Moveset potential is not argument in regards to character inclusion, and nor is him being the third most wanted Zelda newcomer (giving him the benefit of the doubt) means little considering even Ghirahim probably does not even break the Top 15 most wanted characters. There frankly is little interest in a Zelda newcomer, and unlike Mario, there is no re-occurring major popular characters left to add.

The picture does not look good for a Zelda newcomer in general though.

 

[TumblrFamous]

The problem is that is has been close to nine years since Vaati's last appearance in a Zelda game, and despite two "Toon Link" games having been made since then, he did not make any appearance. He was not even referenced in Brawl despite that game having been released only a few years after his three game appearances. There is a very good chance that Vaati may never be revisited in the series again.

Moveset potential is not argument in regards to character inclusion, and nor is him being the third most wanted Zelda newcomer (giving him the benefit of the doubt) means little considering even Ghirahim probably does not even break the Top 15 most wanted characters. There frankly is little interest in a Zelda newcomer, and unlike Mario, there is no re-occurring major popular characters left to add.

The picture does not look good for a Zelda newcomer in general though.

That's pretty sad, being that I want Zelda to have a great next Rep. But I will be fine if they just add the 4 Brawl characters back.

Nice Confirmation review, Chronobound! But if I may, when you said the likes of Palutena and Shulk are hurt because they weren't pre-Brawl, I don't think that necessarily hurts them. It may just mean that Sakurai is looking back on previous polls to see who was popular back then.

Other than that, I agree with everything you said!

 

[Motor Bug2005]

Nice Confirmation review, Chronobound! But if I may, when you said the likes of Palutena and Shulk are hurt because they weren't pre-Brawl, I don't think that necessarily hurts them. It may just mean that Sakurai is looking back on previous polls to see who was popular back then.

Other than that, I agree with everything you said!

I think what Chronobound meant is that their chances might be hurt because they weren't popular pre-Brawl and the fact that Sakurai might've used pre-Brawl popularity data to determine SSB4's roster.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Honestly, the veteran analysis was probably my favorite part on reading that. I agreed with most of it and thought it was pretty insightful.

 

[Alban712]

Honestly, after that statement in which 3rd parties needed to be legendary, I don't see Geno (a one-time side character from 15 years ago) as a contender anymore. Furthermore, Square-Enix is one of the most difficult companies to "lend" characters and they don't seem to give a damn about Geno or Mallow (as you can see in recent Mario Games produced by Square-Enix which didn't have him as a playable character). Moreover, I actually don't view Geno as the next Mario newcomer, because he has a heavy competition and is a very unimportant and obscure character to the casual audience

What is wierder is the fact that Geno is a contender and Vaati and Lucina aren't. I simply don't picture him as more likely

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Edit: Wait, nevermind. I'm ********. I thought this was another thread.

edit2: Yeah, pretty much. Geno has some nice advantages and all and whatnot, but at this point they're better off picking Paper Mario. I wish Geno and Mallow at least would come back in more games though. The Mario RPG characters are some of the better characters in all of gaming and lol, they show up how many times

 

[ChronoBound]

Edit: Wait, nevermind. I'm ********. I thought this was another thread.

edit2: Yeah, pretty much. Geno has some nice advantages and all and whatnot, but at this point they're better off picking Paper Mario. I wish Geno and Mallow at least would come back in more games though. The Mario RPG characters are some of the better characters in all of gaming and lol, they show up how many times

Pretty much all that Geno has going for him is the very loud and vocal fanbase he had during pre-Brawl and Sakurai somehow thinking that everyone wanted him. That's it.

Geno is pretty much a character that lives and dies on popularity alone. He has no other merits to getting in. He is basically the same as Waluigi, except at least casual Nintendo know who Waluigi is.

 

[Starcutter]

I would like to say (if I haven't already) that I feel a yoshi rep is entirely possible,with 2 new games and such.


but whatever, this is your thread and I can believe something you don't. not a big deal.

 

[Autumn ♫]

The problem is that is has been close to nine years since Vaati's last appearance in a Zelda game, and despite two "Toon Link" games having been made since then, he did not make any appearance. He was not even referenced in Brawl despite that game having been released only a few years after his three game appearances. There is a very good chance that Vaati may never be revisited in the series again.

Moveset potential is not argument in regards to character inclusion, and nor is him being the third most wanted Zelda newcomer (giving him the benefit of the doubt) means little considering even Ghirahim probably does not even break the Top 15 most wanted characters. There frankly is little interest in a Zelda newcomer, and unlike Mario, there is no re-occurring major popular characters left to add.
The picture does not look good for a Zelda newcomer in general though.

Sorry, for the long wait, Smashboards wasn't giving me an update on this thread for some reason, either that or I completely passed it by accident, which happens alot.

While Vaati hasn't had any new games for a while, he did get a rerelease of one of his games not too long ago. I don't believe Wolf was refrenced any in Melee, besides a very short clip in the opening. Vaati is one of the few Zelda characters that seems to have a good amount of staying power, Vaati as with the Four Sword and Ganondorf with the Master Sword. As long as they want to bring multiplayer to Zelda, they will probably keep returning Vaati. Heck, even Tingle has been absent for severeal games due supposedly to his hate in America, with the exception of WWHD. I believe Vaati has the most staying power over other Zelda characters besides the big 4, that being Link, Zelda, Impa, and Ganondorf.

 

[IniuriaTalis]

This is a really great analysis! I can't wait to see your thoughts on Pokemon. There's just one part where things seemed kind of contradictory. In your Mario analysis, you mention that 3D World could possibly help Toad because Sakurai might have learned about his role in it early from the developers. However, in your DK bits you repeatedly emphasize that Tropical Freeze changes nothing because it was announced too late. Couldn't he have gotten early info on Dixie like he might have on Toad?

 

[ChronoBound]

. Couldn't he have gotten early info on Dixie like he might have on Toad?

The developers for 3D World are in Japan, while Tropical Freeze's are not.

 

[@tomic]

Ray from Custom Robo might warrant a mention both as a character from a series that lacks a playable representative as well as a character that had substantial demand pre-Brawl (enough to get him in as an AT).

 

[ChronoBound]

Ray from Custom Robo might warrant a mention both as a character from a series that lacks a playable representative as well as a character that had substantial demand pre-Brawl (enough to get him in as an AT).

There was never substantial demand for Ray during pre-Brawl. At best he was within the Top 20 most wanted characters during that period. There will definitely be a section dedicated to Custom Robo for the non-contender section under the the "New Series" analysis though.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Not mad, per say. I just happen to respectfully disagree. I mean, he said it in a more calm and unbiased way, after all.

Overall, a really nice set of analysis, Chrono. It's really nice to see something this in-depth, and for these to finally make their long-awaited comeback.

This. Opossum and I didn't get mad that somebody didn't like Chrom. We didn't appreciate the immature insults that came from people who didn't like Chrom.

 

[TheDivineDeity]

Hey Crono, what do you think of this equation I made concerning character priority on Sakurai's roster?​

"In order for us to easier understand PRIORITY, in terms of roster predictions, I have created 2 equations concerning priority.

A+B+C+D / Sakurai = PRC

P = R1/R2

Let me explain.

Let's say, in terms of character uniqueness (A), moveset potential (B), roster balance (C), and deservingness (D), the equation goes as A+B+C+D = Potential Roster Choice (PRC). Now, let's say [a character] fits the criteria of this equation as A+B+C+D = PRC. One would think [a character] would be deserving... right? Well then, there is another factor to consider - the division of the addition, otherwise known as Sakurai's Consideration (Sakurai). With the factor known as Sakurai, he would not only consider all of the above, but also Priority (P). Which means, with [a character], the equation is now A+B+C+D / Sakurai = PRC. By doing this, [a character] chances now turn out to be better than most other picks. Therefore, you have A+B+C+D / Sakurai = PRC, whereas the Sakurai factor is much more lenient.

Consider another equation in terms of [another character] priority, P = R1/R2. P = Priority, which is equal to Recency (R1) and Relevancy (R2). The closer P = R1/R2, the greater the chance is for [another character] priority. Consider R1 and R2, where [another character] is actually effective with in this equation, consider he is BOTH recent and relevant. Now the equation of P = R1/R2 favors [another character] in this sense. It also favors [a character], but not as much, because his R2 is not as high as [another character]. Therefore, the previous equation A+B+C+D / Sakurai = PRC makes sense in light of this.

I hope that helps!"​

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

I swear, the forums will go to DEFCON 1 once the Fire Emblem and Pokemon analyses are released!

Anyways, Chrono, I really liked the Veteran/Newcomer analysis and I should totally get cracking on the previous ones if I can. Many of your points we're articulate and well-presented, although there were some exaggerations here and there (e.g., 3rd parties), but I totally see the gist of it. Really interesting read that stays close to reality and Sakurai, even if I can't absolutely welcome everything.

I have a neat suggestion. How about you do an analysis for darkhorse characters such as Anna, Muddy Mole, or even Jack Frost? I'm not sure if you would want to separate each character you exemplify from their own series though. Maybe find some way to demonstrate their unique, almost niche popularity while highlighting their relevance and recency to their respective franchises. You should give this some thought and try to find a way to make it 'stand' to the more rudimentary series.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Amazing job as always Chrono.

Though I'm curious. What do you think about the stages revealed and what they may or may not mean?

 

[YoshiandToad]

I really enjoy reading the analysis written up so far, and it seems as a whole Smashboards tends to agree on which characters are likely for Mario, DK, Zelda and Metroid. They may not agree on the individual one, but everyone agrees Paper Mario, Toad, Bowser Jr, Doc and Waluigi are the only ones with a real shot from Mario, DK only really has two choices in King K. Rool and Dixie(and they might get both), Zelda has Tingle, Vaati and Ghirinham(I butchered this name), Toon Zelda with Tetra/Toon Sheik as chance characters and Metroid really only has one chance with Ridley. There's small support for other characters (Geno, Groose, Donkey Kong Jr, Anthony Higgins) but very few seem to see them as having a good shot.

But then we get to the hot mess that is Pokemon and Fire Emblem.

This. Opossum and I didn't get mad that somebody didn't like Chrom. We didn't appreciate the immature insults that came from people who didn't like Chrom.

^ This. Exactly this.

Honestly I think there's a lot of muck slinging from every Fire Emblem character fanbase and unfortunately the vocal minority ruin fanbases on all sides. If I was doing something like this I'd honestly be dreading doing Fire Emblem's analysis when there's Ike, Roy, Chrom, Lucina, Anna, My Unit , Lyn, etc fans all bashing one anothers chances.

That said; good luck Chrono!