The Ultimate Smash Bros. 4 Character Analysis Topic. (Retro Characters Analysis Is Up!)

[Autumn ♫]

It's a good thing you're making this because I don't know why everybody is so hyped for Palutina and thinks that she must be in the game.

 

[ChronoBound]

It's a good thing you're making this because I don't know why everybody is so hyped for Palutina and thinks that she must be in the game.

To be fair Palutena is probably the most important female Nintendo character that is not yet playable in Smash Bros., and in general the most wanted one for Smash 4. Palutena is intricately important to the Kid Icarus series, to the point where the series even has Palutena's name in the Japanese name to the series (Light Myth: Palutena's Mirror). She is so important to the series that she received a re-design alongside Pit in Brawl, and is the only non-antagonistic NPC to have made an appearance in the SSE, so Sakurai probably regards her as integral to the series. The objections of her not being "combat orientated" were cleared up with Uprising's release.

I think the only other female character that may have a resume as impressive as Palutena's that is not yet playable is Dixie Kong.

I think Palutena's only obstacle is perhaps Sakurai's humbleness from giving Kid Icarus a newcomer. Palutena stands a good chance at being among the first newcomers unveiled.

 

[FlareHabanero]

I think if Smash 4 were to have 12 newcomers this time (not including Mewtwo and Roy), they would be better off including reps for new series entirely than scrapping the bottom of the barrel for veteran franchises. Really, in terms of important actors, you really only have Ridley, K. Rool, Palutena, and one of Toad/Bowser Jr./Paper Mario to put in. I would like to think of Dixie Kong as pretty important too, but unfortunately, there is not as much interest in her as a lot of other characters (even Toad has more interest than Dixie). I do think Dixie Kong has a 50/50 shot at getting in though.

But focusing more on series without a playable character, would be for the best this time. Little Mac, Takamaru, Shulk, Isaac, Mega Man, and possibly Dillon or Starfy or Saki could bring a lot more to the table than something like Waluigi could. Ray and Lip could also potentially work as great new reps too, though I am very doubtful on their chances for the actual Smash 4.

People are not aware of it, but that regard to the lack of veteran franchises having feasible characters ironically is contributed to Brawl pretty much introducing the rest of them. In other words, the trump card might of been introduced a little too early. This does have it's pros and cons, on one hand with the existing franchises being complete a focus on introducing new stuff would be a bigger priority, but at the same time the existing franchises will have to compensate with trying to improve the veterans in someway to stay fresh. However, do keep in mind that it doesn't mean that the veteran franchises won't have anything new, but it would be more forced this time around that avoiding it would generally be the wiser choice in the long run.

Luckily, the timing seems to be perfect to introduce new stuff. Punch-Out!! got revived in recent years with great acclaim, The Mysterious Murasame Castle is suddenly springing up out of the blue, two new IP's are introduced that would introduce some fresh blood in the form of Xenoblade and Dillon's Rolling Western, and Mega Man and some sort of Namco character are among the more notable third-party choices at the moment. Of course if there's a desire, oddballs like Mach Rider, Saki, and Lip would be welcomed too. Doubtful towards Starfy and Issac, though that's kind of a different topic.

Generally speaking, introducing new content would be the better option in the long run. Staying fresh should be an important factor, and playing too safe with what is already there might not be the best option considering what can be provided in that way is too limited to rely on.

As for the analyses you listed, the Kirby series analysis is completely finished. Surprisingly, there was quite a bit written for it (a lot of it talked about Bandanna Dee) and it did have an extensive non-contender section.

Perfect. The lovable pink psychopath and his witnesses deserve the best.

It's a good thing you're making this because I don't know why everybody is so hyped for Palutina and thinks that she must be in the game.

>Palutina

 

[Autumn ♫]

I think Palutena's only obstacle is perhaps Sakurai's humbleness from giving Kid Icarus a newcomer. Palutena stands a good chance at being among the first newcomers unveiled.

I think that may have been why I didn't understand her support. Thanks for clearing it up for me.

 

[Deleted member]

Not sure why people consider Dillon a possibility. I mean, I included him in my pool, but I'd like to hear why he's being entertained becuase I just don't see him happening.

Yeah I actually agree with this. I think the only series that absolutely do need newcomers this time are Metroid, DK, and Kid Icarus.

I don't think any newcomers are necessary. Of course excluding King K. Rool, Ridley and Palutena would be bad as it would detract from the roster's overall quality, but if characters are going to sell the game, it's going to take a group of newcomers that are great choices rather than just individuals newcomer like the past game (only arguable characters are Mewtwo and Mega Man due to being above everyone else in requests and even they probably won't have much effect on the sales by themselves). It's why Sakurai is decreasing focus on newcomer additions (at the very least we will not get as many newcomers as Brawl did).

I think if Smash 4 were to have 12 newcomers this time (not including Mewtwo and Roy), they would be better off including reps for new series entirely than scrapping the bottom of the barrel for veteran franchises. Really, in terms of important actors, you really only have Ridley, K. Rool, Palutena, and one of Toad/Bowser Jr./Paper Mario to put in. I would like to think of Dixie Kong as pretty important too, but unfortunately, there is not as much interest in her as a lot of other characters (even Toad has more interest than Dixie). I do think Dixie Kong has a 50/50 shot at getting in though.

But focusing more on series without a playable character, would be for the best this time. Little Mac, Takamaru, Shulk, Isaac, Mega Man, and possibly Dillon or Starfy or Saki could bring a lot more to the table than something like Waluigi could. Ray and Lip could also potentially work as great new reps too, though I am very doubtful on their chances for the actual Smash 4.

Like I said, we'll probably be receiving more focus on new series (including retro, misc. and third-parties) when taking into account relative values. However, I don't think we will receive more than Brawl did in regards to new series quantity-wise. Not only has the pool of existing newcomers have decreased, but so has the pool of new series newcomers as well. Retro newcomers is pretty much down to Takamaru and Mach Rider. We could get one or both, but can you honestly say that the likes of Duck Hunt Dog are a realistic possibility to get in?

As for misc. series, the pool has slimmed down considerably ever since Brawl. Due to Ray and Lip going on hiatus, their chance as you stated are pretty much shot. I would also argue Starfy on the same boat despite his increased importance due to Sakurai essentially rejecting him in Brawl. Dillon I also have a very hard time seeing happening since I think he'll be a victim of prioritization. Really, when it comes to misc. newcomers, the only ones that have a realistic chance of getting in are Little Mac, Shulk, Isaac and Saki and it's highly unlikely all of them are getting in (two or three is the most we can realistically expect).

Third-parties are a very difficult subject as there are so many questions to ask. Even if we do end up getting third-party newcomers, it's not going to be more than one or two . Like with retro and misc., the pool has also depleted from what it could have been. Granted, when we look back at pre-Brawl, Sonic was the only real possibility, but the situation regarding third-parties have made the pool less than it could have been. Only six third-party characters have even the remotest of shot of getting into the next game (Mega Man, Professor Layton, Geno, Pac-Man, Lloyd Irving and Cress Albane) and of those possible candidates, I find Pac-Man, Geno and Cress Albane to be doubtful at best.

There's only around thirty characters that have any shot of getting in and even less that I would be unsurprised to see. It's a much smaller pool than it was pre-Brawl

 

[Chromanin]

Cubone
Bring Mewtwo back.
New trainer (new pokemon trainer system, all pokemon have down+b moves and use taunt directionals to switch pokemon)

and... of course. BANJO KAZOOIE

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Not sure why people consider Dillon a possibility.

He's being paid attention to for sure, that's the least, but the fact that it's digital release even makes me go what.

I don't think any newcomers are necessary.

You hit right on the target with what I was trying to say in my post and failed at saying and I actually agree with both you and ChronoBound on it even if Sakurai didn't say "Expect less newcomers". It's a much less bigger pool than pre-brawl, and to be frank, a lot less characters being talked about, Ninty no longer has a true official forum, no poll, probably further in done, busy teaching Namco-Bandai stuff about the frame system, and so on.

 

[FlareHabanero]

I find it weird how people think Issac has a strong chance, despite being seen as nothing but Assist Trophy fodder at the height of his popularity during that time. Don't see how it would be much better this time around, but I digress. Saki however is a possibility, remember that the only reason he was an Assist Trophy was because it was a form of compensation due to the requests for the character coming in too late into development.

As for Dillon, it's simply a case of liking the character. I mean, the same could be said for pretty much every character that gets support, but in the case of Dillon it's probably virtue of his design having that coolness factor and people would really like the idea of playing as a cool looking character. It's pretty straight forward, nothing exactly special but at the same time it does work. However, I will say that wanting a character is better then expecting a character. True passion is the strongest support out there, not harboring on shallow words.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I find it weird how people think Issac has a strong chance, despite being seen as nothing but Assist Trophy fodder at the height of his popularity during that time. Don't see how it would be much better this time around, but I digress.

1. Popularly requested.
2. Less competition this time.
3. His Series continuing on after Brawl (unlike Ray for example).
4. Does being an AT actually harm a character's chances? Little Mac and Waluigi have good shots and they were ATs.

 

[ChronoBound]

4. Does being an AT actually harm a character's chances? Little Mac and Waluigi have good shots and they were ATs.

I would not call Waluigi as having a "good shot", he is plausible, though Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Dr. Mario are all more likely to show up than him.

If we were to even get two Mario newcomers in Smash 4 they will most likely be one of Toad, Bowser Jr., or Paper Mario, with Dr. Mario as either an EX character, DLC, character, or costume.

 

[FlareHabanero]

1. Popularly requested.

Because that worked last time. Popularity is a factor, but is not the factor.

2. Less competition this time.

Competition is still competition, even if it's smaller this time around.

3. His Series continuing on after Brawl (unlike Ray for example).

Pretty much every retro choice makes this a moot point.

4. Does being an AT actually harm a character's chances? Little Mac and Waluigi have good shots and they were ATs.

As much as I like Waluigi, you ****ed up by saying he has a good chance. Also no, nothing has been stated that being an Asisst Trophy automatically ruins all hope for inclusion. For example, the Saki thing was again a compromise due to inappropriate timing of his support in 2007.

 

[---]

Honestly I just think Issac lost his chance with Brawl. Yeah he had a new game but it went under the radar, and his previous niches now have a lot of competition.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

By good shot, I meant feasible, gentlemen... I mean he's possible. I guess I used the wrong word there.

Because that worked last time. Popularity is a factor, but is not the factor. It's still a big factor. I never said it was the de facto factor. Do not put words into my mouth.

Competition is still competition, even if it's smaller this time around. Yes, but he has less of it to deal with this time. I think you're nitpicking here.

Pretty much every retro choice makes this a moot point. Really? You and I both know retros are another thing entirely. Why do we consider Ray unlikely? His series is on hiatus. Golden Sun isn't at this point.

As much as I like Waluigi, you ****ed up by saying he has a good chance. Responded to this above.

Also no, nothing has been stated that being an Asisst Trophy automatically ruins all hope for inclusion. For example, the Saki thing was again a compromise due to inappropriate timing of his support in 2007. Alright. I apologize for misinterpreting the post.

Responses in red.

 

[N3ON]

Because that worked last time. Popularity is a factor, but is not the factor.

That did work last time. Most of characters more popular than Isaac got included, and now Isaac is in a position of higher comparative popularity.

Competition is still competition, even if it's smaller this time around.

But now that there is less of it, characters who remain from last time do not face such fierce obstacles, therefore now some of them have higher chances.

Pretty much every retro choice makes this a moot point.

Maybe if retro characters and unrepresented "current" series characters had the same prerequisites for inclusion, but they don't.

As much as I like Waluigi, you ****ed up by saying he has a good chance. Also no, nothing has been stated that being an Asisst Trophy automatically ruins all hope for inclusion. For example, the Saki thing was again a compromise due to inappropriate timing of his support in 2007.

Waluigi's chances have nothing to do with Isaac's chances, they aren't related. No, being an AT doesn't harm a character's chances in the least, but I wouldn't say they were a huge boon either. Also, there is no proof Saki was seriously considered to be playable. His support was never as much as characters who actually were made playable, even in 2007. All Sakurai said was he did what he could to include him in the game, attributing anything more to that comment, especially considering how little we have of the full story, is assuming too much.

 

[Shorts]

The Third Koopa is here *swoons*

:3

 

[Bowserlick]

Charizard was a pokeball item attack before being a playable character. I do not think previously being an AT necessarily effects the chances of being a playable character. This is the fourth edition of Smash, so there are less characters to pick.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

The Third Koopa is here *swoons*

:3

:3

Also another thing about Golden Sun is it's likely to still get a fourth game, and he did make it as an AT, and he did have his third game come out. All three games sold at least decently well. His competition for new series isn't as big as you'd think it is. I mean, I guess there's Shulk and Little Mac. I'd go as far to say to shake things up, he could even be included with another rep, but that's treading into unlikely/improbable.

...the only problem is if that new game will even come out before smash 4 or even around that which i honestly doubt

 

[N3ON]

:3

Also another thing about Golden Sun is it's likely to still get a fourth game, and he did make it as an AT, and he did have his third game come out. All three games sold at least decently well. His competition for new series isn't as big as you'd think it is. I mean, I guess there's Shulk and Little Mac. I'd go as far to say to shake things up, he could even be included with another rep, but that's treading into unlikely/improbable.

...the only problem is if that new game will even come out before smash 4 or even around that which i honestly doubt

I wouldn't say a fourth GS is likely, but it's possible. And Dark Dawn didn't bomb (well, maybe it did in Japan - I forget the exact sales numbers), but it also didn't do so hot either, definitely not on par with the first two. And yeah, I'd say it's pretty darn unlikely we get GS4 before SSB4, considering Camelot is currently making the Mario Golf 3DS game. Ofc to really have effected the roster, they would've needed to be developing it last year, when Sakurai was likely picking characters... but oh well.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Isaac has a decent shot, IMO he's one of the most likely candidates from an unrepresented series, and I'd LOVE to see him included, but if he does get included, it will be because of what GS already is, not what it might be in the future.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Don't get me wrong, I still think Isaac has a decent shot, IMO he's one of the most likely candidates from an unrepresented series, and I'd LOVE to see him included, but if he does get included, it will be because of what GS already is, not what it might be in the future.

Oh of course. Though, another point is Olimar. While we did know there would be a Pikmin 3, it still hasn't came out to this day (Though we have a release date) - Of course it'll be more on the three games than the possible fourth game, especially since he probably won't even be playable in that either.

 

[N3ON]

Oh of course. Though, another point is Olimar. While we did know there would be a Pikmin 3, it still hasn't came out to this day (Though we have a release date) - Of course it'll be more on the three games than the possible fourth game, especially since he probably won't even be playable in that either.

At least with Pikmin the third game was confirmed to be in development when Sakurai was compiling the roster, and it's very likely he had access to it in some form, even if it's still not out yet. Games that come out... I'd say starting next year, will probably have a minimal effect on the content of the game.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

At least with Pikmin the third game was confirmed to be in development when Sakurai was compiling the roster, and it's very likely he had access to it in some form, even if it's still not out yet. Games that come out... I'd say starting next year, will probably have a minimal effect on the content of the game.

Access to a game that got shafted for five-seven years when they were only starting development? I guess it's a bit more probable than seeing anything on Golden Sun 4 considering it was originally suppose to be on Wii.

Point still stands.

 

[N3ON]

Access to a game that got shafted for five-seven years when they were only starting development? I guess it's a bit more probable than seeing anything on Golden Sun 4 considering it was originally suppose to be on Wii.

Point still stands.

Well when Sakurai was gathering content for the different series and he came to the Pikmin series, it's likely he approached Nintendo (or vice versa) so he could include Pikmin 3 content. I don't see why he would be turned down, it's win-win for both of them. It's not like he's some rival company trying to steal the secrets of the game's development. We know Sakurai is given content from games before they actually release to put in Smash, like he has previously with the Zelda, FE, and Pokemon series (and likely other ones we weren't told about).

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Well when Sakurai was gathering content for the different series and he came to the Pikmin series, it's likely he approached Nintendo (or vice versa) so he could include Pikmin 3 content. I don't see why he would be turned down, it's win-win for both of them. It's not like he's some rival company trying to steal the secrets of the game's development. We know Sakurai is given content from games before they actually release to put in Smash, like he has previously with the Zelda, FE, and Pokemon series (and likely other ones we weren't told about).

Yeah, but the question is how much he had. Though, the more I think about it, there probably was at least a bit more with Pikmin 3 than there is right now in Golden Sun 4, but we don't know for sure.

Regardless, like Olimar, it'll be more because of the previous games. I still think Isaac holds a pretty good chance, but after playing some Xenoblade, I certainly wouldn't mind Shulk if we were to only have one new series.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah, but the question is how much he had. Though, the more I think about it, there probably was at least a bit more with Pikmin 3 than there is right now in Golden Sun 4, but we don't know for sure.

Regardless, like Olimar, it'll be more because of the previous games. I still think Isaac holds a pretty good chance, but after playing some Xenoblade, I certainly wouldn't mind Shulk if we were to only have one new series.

I'm confident that we will get at least two new series characters and I think a third spot is likely as well. Little Mac and Shulk will likely take priority, but if there's a third spot, I'd say that Isaac would be the most likely contender.

 

[N3ON]

Yeah, but the question is how much he had. Though, the more I think about it, there probably was at least a bit more with Pikmin 3 than there is right now in Golden Sun 4, but we don't know for sure.

Well considering Pikmin 3 is close to launch and GS4 likely doesn't exist or is in extremely early development, I'd say he definitely had more access to a game finishing development than one that probably doesn't exist. There's enough to take from the first three GSs anyway.

Regardless, like Olimar, it'll be more because of the previous games. I still think Isaac holds a pretty good chance, but after playing some Xenoblade, I certainly wouldn't mind Shulk if we were to only have one new series.

Well, it's kind of a different situation considering Pikmin 3 didn't exist during Brawl's development, so Sakurai really only had the first two to take things from, while this time the majority of the Pikmin content will probably come from the third. Now if Sakurai includes GS content, he'll have all three to work with and he can pick and choose how he wants, with multiple protagonists and everything.

And yeah, Isaac and Shulk are both good choices.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Well considering Pikmin 3 is close to launch and GS4 likely doesn't exist or is in extremely early development, I'd say he definitely had more access to a game finishing development than one that probably doesn't exist. There's enough to take from the first three GSs anyway.

Back when Brawl was in development, there is no way they were even close to Beta.

Well, it's kind of a different situation considering Pikmin 3 didn't exist during Brawl's development, so Sakurai really only had the first two to take things from, while this time the majority of the Pikmin content will probably come from the third. Now if Sakurai includes GS content, he'll have all three to work with and he can pick and choose how he wants, with multiple protagonists and everything.

For this game you took the words right out of my month. I was more-or-less just saying the fourth game that may happen still shows that he's relevant and honestly a more likely chance to this roster than the Brawl roster. Hell, if the Brawl roster had at least two more series, he would have probably made it in Brawl.

And yeah, Isaac and Shulk are both good choices.

Let's just agree on that and hope. Cross your fingers Nintendo fans of great RPG's. Let us who are fans of Xenoblade, Last Story, Golden Sun, Mother, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Mario RPG's, and Advance Wars hope to see as much representation from Ninetndo's fantastic history of RPG's, especially being a fantastic innovator from the past, present, and soon the future of RPG's!

(no i don't just mean characters)

 

[ChronoBound]

I am probably going to post a new series analysis on Sunday. I hope you are all enjoy it as much you did the Mario series analysis.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Donkey Kong's time I'd presume. That will be a pretty straight forward discussion.

 

[N3ON]

Back when Brawl was in development, there is no way they were even close to Beta.

I meant for SSB4's development, not Brawl's. Sorry if I didn't make it clearer. Embarrass

 

[loganhogan]

What about King Boo? He's in the Luigi's Mansion games. I think he would either be a boss like Petey Piranha or a trophy.

 

[ChronoBound]

What about King Boo? He's in the Luigi's Mansion games. I think he would either be a boss like Petey Piranha or a trophy.

If you want I will write up a small analysis for King Boo under the non-contender section for the Mario series analysis.

 

[loganhogan]

I would like to hear your analysis, sure i'll accept, thank you.

 

[ChronoBound]

I would like to hear your analysis, sure i'll accept, thank you.

Okay, I just finished my King Boo analysis, and edited my Mario series analysis post and included it. Its about as long as the other non-contender Mario character analyses I made. I hope you like it.

 

[loganhogan]

Hey I learned something new! I had no idea he was in some Mario Parties, Super Mario 64 DS, or Super Peach. I didn't play those games but it's nice to know. I've always liked King Boo and your analysis for him is spot on. Thank you for accepting my request.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

King Boo would actually be a pretty awesome boss, loganhogan.

...I should go check if there's a boss thread.

 

[Opossum]

King Boo was always a top-seed boss pick, in my opinion. He's a cool character.

I never understood why Super Sluggers and Mario Kart didn't use his Luigi's Mansion design.

 

[loganhogan]

King Boo was always a top-seed boss pick, in my opinion. He's a cool character.

I never understood why Super Sluggers and Mario Kart didn't use his Luigi's Mansion design.

His Luigi's Mansion design is the best.

 

[Evilpenguin]

OP thanks for doing something like this. What you've posted so far really consolidates a lot of opinions floating about. I have one character suggestion and a few format suggestion:

- Discuss Dark Samus in the Metroid non-contender section. That's a character I've heard some support for that wasn't in your contender list.
- Put the expected post date in the reserved post for each series. For example the third post could read
- Combine analysis for smaller series instead of going every 2 weeks (DK and Metroid for example, but keep Zelda or Pokemon on its own).

Donkey Kong series:

This post is dedicated to the DK series. (posting 5/31/13)

Thanks again for you hard work!

 

[stan423321]

A question to the OP.
Recently, we got the "Sonic Lost World is published by Nintendo" announcement, which obviously boosts Sonic's chances to return (although they were relatively high anyway). Supposing something similar happens with a character from an already analysed pool (for example: you put out Zelda series analysis, then suddenly and unexpectably it turns out that Ghirahim is a major villain in aLttP2), what will you do? Edit the post, put some kind of update disclaimer, or just ignore the thing as the analysis represents your knowledge at some past moment?

 

[Shorts]

Geno psycho over analysis time:

So, we know Sakurai considers Geno a Mario character, evidence is where he stood in the Super Mario part of the poll.

Super Mario series
(1) Koopa: 169 (Bowser)
(2) Princess Peach: 66
(3) Wario: 65
(4) Kinopio: 27 (Toad)
(5) Nokonoko: 9 (Koopa Troopa)
(6) Kamec: 8 (Magikoopa)
(7) Kuribou: 7 (Goomba)
(8) Mallow (Mario RPG): 5
(8) Geno (Mario RPG): 5
(10) Baby Mario: 3

Then, we have this article from GDC 2008

The focus of the session was to talk about the character design of SSBB so Sakurai was eager to point out that in terms of character selection, the project was blessed with being able utilize characters from many other famous games. The lineup of characters was almost completely finalized in the initial planning stages which began in 2004. The team developed an oversized plan and created as much as they could, but there were always exceptions and Sega's Sonic was not part of the roster until 2007.

It was noted that the characters had to stand out and have unique move sets of their own. There needed to be a good balance of characters and even some of Nintendo's own characters could not appear due to licensing issues. Sakurai stated that in order to make the most of a character he was required to think long and hard early on in the design process as to what that specific character brought to the table.

If this is true, who does Sakurai think is a NINTENDO character, who would ave liscensing issues, who did not appear at all in Brawl, and who also would be playable material?

Think hard. It's possible it was Geno. Not really any other character fits the description well.