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The Ultimate Smash Bros. 4 Character Analysis Topic. (Retro Characters Analysis Is Up!)

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Robert of Normandy

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Rosalina:
Rosalina was a new princess added for Super Mario Galaxy, and she had an important role within that game. She returned again for Super Mario Galaxy 2. She has also made a playable appearance in Mario Kart Wii, Mario Super Sluggers, and Mario Kart 7. Despite actually having a role in the Super Mario series (unlike Waluigi), she is less requested than even Daisy. Despite Super Mario Galaxy being released before Brawl, she did not appear in Brawl in any form, most likely due to the fact that Brawl was in debug testing by the time Super Mario Galaxy was released. Rosalina at best will be an Assist Trophy. However, its more likely she will be another palette swap for Peach (most likely Peach having a light blue dress and having the same shade of blonde hair as Rosalina), a trophy, and a sticker.
Minor correction here: Rosalina wasn't in Mario Sluggers. Some trolls on Gamefaqs are using this to try and discredit you btw, so see if you can fix it there too.
 

ChronoBound

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Minor correction here: Rosalina wasn't in Mario Sluggers. Some trolls on Gamefaqs are using this to try and discredit you btw, so see if oyu can fix it there too.
Okay, I must have overlooked that. I will go back and edit it.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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For New series, I would be sure to include Shulk. Quite honestly, I know the other two aren't likely at all, but you COULD include Zael and Aeron.

The last two likely won't get in. BUT I CAN DREAM SOMETIMES.

...sometimes
 

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Kid Icarus characters aside from Palutena are not likely in my opinion, but that may change based on details that get mentioned at E3. However, I will talk about every Kid Icarus character. I think the low demand for a character aside from Palutena and Sakurai's own humbleness are the two biggest obstacles here.

Also, as previously mentioned, I am contemplating adding Dillon to the contender list.

As to why I don't separate each of the child versions of Link and Mewtwo's two forms, I figured that there would be more people who would me to talk about each of them separately than not.
Alright then. Definitely mention Dark Pit being an alternate color and Magnus begging to be an AT.

I still think you'd be better off grouping them together, not that shouldn't talk about each of them, it's just the act of separating them could lead into some dumb Gamefaqs-like arguments IMO. I would group Young/Toon/Classic Link & Mewtwo/New Form together and give each of them their own paragraph about the chances of each while reminding everyone at the same time that we're talking designs not the character itself (which should have it's own paragraph to begin with).

Also, who is Dillion?
A typo that spell check didn't pick up on.
 

SmashChu

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I like you Chrono, but you have to be a damn fool to think Bowser Jr or Paper Mario have any chance over other Mario characters. There fanbases are niche as the Smasboards and Shortie's poll show. Not sure how Paper Mario would get in over
 

ChronoBound

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I like you Chrono, but you have to be a damn fool to think Bowser Jr or Paper Mario have any chance over other Mario characters. There fanbases are niche as the Smasboards and Shortie's poll show.


6.Waluigi [Super Mario] 560
8.Bowser Junior [Super Mario] 519

The Smashboards poll shows similar results.
Currently on Shortie's poll:

Bowser Jr.: 543
Waluigi: 577

They are only separated by 35 votes, which means Bowser Jr. is at least a competitive choice with Waluigi.

Secondly, on the SmashBoards exclusive poll:
Waluigi: 177
Paper Mario: 178

On Mario series polls I hold on GameFAQs, Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Waluigi are all usually very close together in votes.
 

SmashChu

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Currently on Shortie's poll:

Bowser Jr.: 543
Waluigi: 577

They are only separated by 35 votes, which means Bowser Jr. is at least a competitive choice with Waluigi.

Secondly, on the SmashBoards exclusive poll:
Waluigi: 177
Paper Mario: 178

On Mario series polls I hold on GameFAQs, Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Waluigi are all usually very close together in votes.
Most of which is due to Smashboard and Gamefaq which have more younger kids. They are not liked outside of this place. Plus, not sure why Sakurai would chose Paper Mario over Doc.

The running now is Waluigi, Toad, and Doc.
 

ChronoBound

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Most of which is due to Smashboard and Gamefaq which have more younger kids. They are not liked outside of this place. Plus, not sure why Sakurai would chose Paper Mario over Doc.

The running now is Waluigi, Toad, and Doc.
Playing devil's advocate, even if you were to give Waluigi the point for "most popularity", the thing is that Toad, Paper Mario, and Bowser Jr. are all popular too (just not to the extent as Waluigi). Secondly, all of those characters have merits to them aside from popularity (which are outlined in their respective analyses).
 

N3ON

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The running is Toad, Junior, Waluigi, Paper Mario, and Doc, as it always was. Jr has a much larger fanbase than you seem to acknowledge Chu, he's got fair to good popularity on most places, and even if it does derive from younger audiences, popularity is still popularity, just because it comes from one demographic more than others doesn't mean it counts any less, it's still legitimate demand. Waluigi's popularity mostly comes from trolls, at least Jr's fanbase is serious when voting for him.

Also, Toad has one of the nichest fanbases around for Smash. Sure, he's deserving, and iconic, and has overall popularity, but he's not too popular for Smash, especially in Japan. Those that actually seriously support him are comparatively few and far between when compared to the other Mario characters. His popularity is much more minor outside of Smashboards, not Jr.

Plus Sakurai could choose Paper Mario over Doc because Paper Mario's sub-series is both current and more popular than Doc's, as well as him likely being a unique character while Doc would probably be a semi-clone at best (not that he couldn't be unique, just that he probably wouldn't be, unlike PM).
 

SmashChu

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Playing devil's advocate, even if you were to give Waluigi the point for "most popularity", the thing is that Toad, Paper Mario, and Bowser Jr. are all popular too (just not to the extent as Waluigi). Secondly, all of those characters have merits to them aside from popularity (which are outlined in their respective analyses).
The problem is choosing the best one. These characters are going to be more popular than most because Mario has more games and more sales per game than most series. The problem is that Junior and Paper add nothing. Junior has never really cached on and he performs poorly compared to other Mario characters. Paper Mario is just Mario and, as a result, adds very little to the game. Why not just chose Doc who is more prominent, more liked, and has been in Smash before. There isn't much that Junior or Paper bring that the rest of the Mario characters don't bring already.

Doc has been in Smash
Toad is the most prominent Mario character not in
Waluigi is the most liked.

This leaves Junior and Paper out in the cold as they do not bring anymore than the three I listed. (Oh, sorry I called you a fool though I still strongly disagree).

The running is Toad, Junior, Waluigi, Paper Mario, and Doc, as it always was. Jr has a much larger fanbase than you seem to acknowledge Chu, he's got fair to good popularity on most places, and even if it does derive from younger audiences, popularity is still popularity, just because it comes from one demographic more than others doesn't mean it counts any less, it's still legitimate demand. Waluigi's popularity mostly comes from trolls, at least Jr's fanbase is serious when voting for him.

Also, Toad has one of the nichest fanbases around for Smash. Sure, he's deserving, and iconic, and has overall popularity, but he's not too popular for Smash, especially in Japan. Those that actually seriously support him are comparatively few and far between when compared to the other Mario characters. His popularity is much more minor outside of Smashboards, not Jr.

Plus Sakurai could choose Paper Mario over Doc because Paper Mario's sub-series is both current and more popular than Doc's, as well as him likely being a unique character while Doc would probably be a semi-clone at best (not that he couldn't be unique, just that he probably wouldn't be, unlike PM).
Junior and Paper are Nsider characters which means they never had a chance but a bunch of people though they did. Tom Nook is the same way, but a better example of what I call the Nsider effect. When Nsiders closed, Nsider fan bases moved to Smashboards and Gamefaq. What I'm saying is they aren't popular, it's more of who you ask.
I say Toad because he has the most longevity and he is only lacking popularity. And while paper Mario is current, Dr. Mario is still a bigger series and has more games. There is also the fact Doc has been in Smash before and was chosen for Brawl over other Mario characters. Junior and Paper were around during Brawl so the fact Doc got picked over them tells us that Sakurai wants Doc.
If you ask me, Doc is the one getting in. Waluigi has the popularity and Toad has the recognition and the other two are stragglers. There isn't enough going for them to warrent an inclusion. Heck, Waluigi got the AT spot over them.
 

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Always enjoy reading your little essays, Chrono, so I was happy to see this thread. That being said, my opinion doesn't differ much from what you already said, though I think Waluigi's chances are still a little bit overestimated. Also, as you made clear, I think Dr. Mario has more of a chance than people give him credit for.
 

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I want to say something about Geno:
Geno could be the better representative for Mario RPGs than Paper Mario, being the most popularly requested and being in one of the critically acclaimed RPGs of all time.
 

Neanderthal

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Great stuff Chrono.

Doc Mario: I hope you're right about him being unlikely.
I'd like him as a costume change or else not at all. I feel as though It cheapens the status of the real Mario by having different versions of him.

Toad: Also hope you're right about Toad possibly having the highest chance.
I was initially against his inclusion due to usually being a support character rather than a fighter but various movesets relying on his use of items to compensate have convinced me that he could make a good playable fighter. He's by far the most iconic character that's missing from the roster so he easily deserves it as long as they can justify why he is able to compete with Mario and Bowser (emphasis on his reliance on items as he was always the item guy in the Super Mario series).
Basically the only Mario newcomer I want.

Bowser Jr: Popular but I hate the idea of his inclusion and would rather have one less character than have him on the roster. Somehow it makes me feel like Boswer is less threatening when he has a baby version of himself lurking around. But that's just personal bias.

Paper Mario: Popular but I hate the idea of his inclusion and would rather have one less character than have him on the roster. I feel he would cheapen the status of the real Mario.

Geno: I'm a huge supporter and would love it, however I agree with you and feel it's so unlikely that it's hardly worth discussing.
I don't understand why a non-appearance at E3 suddenly cuts his chances though?
If he was in the game he would be an unlockable anyway and therefore probably not revealed till after release.

Walugi: Wouldn't mind too much if he was included except that it's a bit of a waste of a spot since he's very bland and unpopular.
 

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No one compares Geno and Paper Mario as RPG characters, and the fact Geno is better to fit for that category than Paper Mario in popularity.
At least Paper Mario is owned by Nintendo.

Doc has been in Smash
Toad is the most prominent Mario character not in
Waluigi is the most liked.

This leaves Junior and Paper out in the cold as they do not bring anymore than the three I listed. (Oh, sorry I called you a fool though I still strongly disagree).
.
You're leaving out some things.

Doc has a hatebase.
Toad has little to no requests.
Waluigi has a HUGE hatebase.

Jr. and Paper don't have very big hatebases and DO bring something new to the table in the form of movesets, different fanbases, etc.

They each have their advantages and disadvantages. All of them have a good shot.



Anyways, amazing post as always Chrono. I can't wait to see your next analysis.
 
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I would have to say that Jr. not having a big hatebase is kind of inaccurate.
Jr. for a long while has been the Replacement Scrappy because he kept showing up instead of the Koopalings. Ever since the Koopalings came back and Jr. is with them most of the time as the unofficial 8th member, his hate lessened, though.
 

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I would have to say that Jr. not having a big hatebase is kind of inaccurate.
Jr. for a long while has been the Replacement Scrappy because he kept showing up instead of the Koopalings. Ever since the Koopalings came back and Jr. is with them most of the time as the unofficial 8th member, his hate lessened, though.
I know, but I was mainly talking about now.

His hatebase is much smaller than Doc's or Waluigi's at this point.
 
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Great analysis there ChronoBound. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the rest of the series.
ChronoBound said:
There is also the possibility that Dr. Mario may be added in as a costume for Mario, however, as mentioned earlier Sakurai was sour on that idea (though that opinion was over a decade ago, and its probable that Sakurai’s opinions have changed since then).
Sakurai is known for not changing his opinions on characters very well unless there's a very good reason why that's the case. As much as I would love to see Dr. Mario as Mario's alternate costume, it's unfortunately unlikely to happen.

For Toad, I think it'd be a good idea if you were to bring up his Brawl's Trophy description as it gives a mixed description of him. It mentions his peaceful status but also his superhuman strength, so I'm not sure whenever or not it would indicate that Sakurai considers Toad too peaceful to be playable or that Sakurai sees Toad as a potential fighter. Smash 4 should be able to tell us that once and for all.

Bowser Jr. will probably emerge as a definite Mario newcomer for Smash 5 if the Mario franchise fails to get a newcomer this game (or doesn't opt for Dr. Mario). I see Bowser Jr. continuing to develop his role and with Smash 4 being Toad and Paper Mario's likely last shot of getting in, he'll stand out as a choice.
ChronoBound said:
His first hope is that Super Mario RPG had strong sales on the Virtual Console, which may provide an impetus to include at least some content from that game in Smash 4 (which would be a challenge due Square-Enix’s rights pertaining to the game).
I don't think that sales plays a role in who gets in. Looking at Toise's sale theory should show how little sales matters (and Sakurai has even went on the record that Pit was included despite bad sales of the GBA game).

I think the main issue with Mario is that no one can agree on who the rep should be. In a franchise that could very well not get a newcomer, banding together to support a newcomer would have put a Mario character in a much better light to get in.
 

Bowserlick

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Paper Mario not only could add something to the game (the ability to switch partners and thus rotate through different special B movesets), but could also introduce more elements of the Mushroom Kingdom such as a Goomba and Koopa.

Not to mention unique animations of folding into various forms and contortions.
 

FlareHabanero

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Don't claim a character is going to be unique until it actually happens, unless you want to look foolhardy. Unless I need to remind you as to what happened to Ganon.
 

Bowserlick

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Don't claim a character is going to be unique until it actually happens, unless you want to look foolhardy. Unless I need to remind you as to what happened to Ganon.
I said "could add something." Don't act like an idiot unless you want to look like an idiot.
 

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You have Geno, yet no Masked Man? (I love both but...)

Other then that, it's nice so far. I remember you from the Brawl predictions and out of all the whackjobs I was seeing from there, you were easily one of the more respectful roster posters. Good luck filling the rest of this out.

Edit: And how about Dillon from Dillon's Rolling Western?

The only thing Geno has going for him is his abnormally high support full of morons.
Even I don't think he has a guns shot in hell but have you even heard about Fatmanonice? People at least put up quite an interest. I wouldn't call them all morons even if some of them are a bit unrealistic. Hell, when I was a kid playing Smash 64 I Wanted Wolf and well two games later...

Granted I guess I also hold less hate since I've seen how his cycle has gone.
 

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I'm pretty sure Mario will get a new rep and Dr. Mario will return as an alternate costume.
I'll guess it will be Paper Mario or Bowser Jr.
 

Bowserlick

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I wouldn't mind Rosalina if she borrowed most of her moves from the premise of Mario Galaxy. Shooting Star bits, perhaps creating a floating meteor she could walk around the perimeter of, ect.

But I feel she is a long shot.
 

Thirdkoopa

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After freaking Luma in Mario Tennis Open, I'd be fine with everything else for Galaxy representation (Stage, Music, maybe even Assist Trophy) but character? Meh. I'd feel the same way as I would with Waluigi. Not much care placed either way.
 

BKupa666

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I remember reading and rereading your Brawl Ultimate Analyses during my lurking phases on SWF, and am ecstatic to see them return. Major kudos for pointing out that, contrary to deluded belief, characters with clone potential are helped, not hurt by the similarities they bear.

Looking forward to the DK series analysis whenever it comes.
 

ChronoBound

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For New series, I would be sure to include Shulk. Quite honestly, I know the other two aren't likely at all, but you COULD include Zael and Aeron.

The last two likely won't get in. BUT I CAN DREAM SOMETIMES.

...sometimes
Shulk is definitely in the contender list.

Zael and Aeron will have their own entries on the non-contender section for the "New series" analysis.

Always enjoy reading your little essays, Chrono, so I was happy to see this thread. That being said, my opinion doesn't differ much from what you already said, though I think Waluigi's chances are still a little bit overestimated. Also, as you made clear, I think Dr. Mario has more of a chance than people give him credit for.
Thanks. I really appreciate every complement I get on this. I really do.

As for Waluigi, I am doubting him personally, but his very high level of popularity, as well as being among the few recognizable Nintendo characters left not yet playable in Smash Bros., does give him a window to possibly become playable. However, as I mentioned in the analysis I think his chances are only better than Geno's of all the Mario characters I talked about.


I want to say something about Geno:
Geno could be the better representative for Mario RPGs than Paper Mario, being the most popularly requested and being in one of the critically acclaimed RPGs of all time.
Paper Mario is actually much more requested than Geno is nowadays. Also, I feel a side character that appeared in only one game would be as good as a character that was the main protagonist of four in terms of representing the Mario RPGs.

The only thing Geno has going for him is his abnormally high support full of morons.
Well that is a less polite way of putting it. :laugh:

However, you are right absolute ONLY reason Geno is up here is the absurd amount of requests he received during pre-Brawl, and how much noise his supporters made. Nowadays, he still has requests, but they are certainly much less than what he was seeing during pre-Brawl.

You're leaving out some things.

Doc has a hatebase.
Toad has little to no requests.
Waluigi has a HUGE hatebase.

Jr. and Paper don't have very big hatebases and DO bring something new to the table in the form of movesets, different fanbases, etc.

They each have their advantages and disadvantages. All of them have a good shot.



Anyways, amazing post as always Chrono. I can't wait to see your next analysis.
Dr. Mario's "hate base" is pretty much "I don't want him to come back and stink up a spot on the character selection screen". Most people are cool with the idea of him becoming an alternate costume or EX character, but would much rather see some other Mario character get in first.

Waluigi's "hate base" pretty much only exists within the confines of the Smash Bros. fanbase, who think that other Mario characters (notably Toad, Bowser Jr., or Paper Mario) deserve to become playable over a character whose only role in the series as been within spinoffs. In actuality, the only thing separating him from the likes of Daisy or Koopa Troopa, is his very high popularity. I think if Sakurai were inclined to pick a Mario newcomer that Toad, Bowser Jr., or Paper Mario would be better choices than Waluigi.

Toad does not have little or no requests. He is certainly requested, just not to the extent that Paper Mario, Bowser Jr., and Waluigi are.

You are correct that each of the Mario characters each has their own advantages and disadvantages.

Also, I appreciate that you liked my analysis. I will probably have a new one posted this coming Sunday since there has been such a positive reception.

I would have to say that Jr. not having a big hatebase is kind of inaccurate.
Jr. for a long while has been the Replacement Scrappy because he kept showing up instead of the Koopalings. Ever since the Koopalings came back and Jr. is with them most of the time as the unofficial 8th member, his hate lessened, though.
Yes, Bowser Jr. used to have a large hatebase that extended outside the Smash Bros. fanbase (Mario fans themselves). Aside from the reason you mentioned, they also did not like Bowser Jr. because he felt he was just Baby Bowser with a name swap. He was also "tainted" with Super Mario Sunshine not living up to Super Mario 64, and New Super Mario Bros. not living up to Super Mario Bros. 3 or Super Mario World.

When Mario Galaxy 1, NSBWii, and Galaxy 2, were released, a lot of his hate base dissipated, not only due to the Koopalings returning, but also due how great those games were relative to the rest of the Mario series, so Bowser Jr. no longer had the association of the "slump" the Mario series was in.

Great stuff Chrono.
Thank you. I am glad you liked my work. I did put a lot of time and effort into it. So I appreciate every good word it gets. :)

Neat stuff. I'm looking forward to more.
Thanks for compliment. Yeah, there is a lot more on the way. You just are going to have to be patient. ;)

You have Geno, yet no Masked Man? (I love both but...)

Other then that, it's nice so far. I remember you from the Brawl predictions and out of all the whackjobs I was seeing from there, you were easily one of the more respectful roster posters. Good luck filling the rest of this out.

Hell, when I was a kid playing Smash 64 I Wanted Wolf and well two games later...
I doubt Mother will be receiving any newcomer at all in Smash 4, and perhaps ever again in Smash Bros. The series creator, Itoi, has said that the Mother series is "complete". I think the only things in the future to that franchise are localizations of the two Japan-only titles to the series, a compilation, or possibly remakes.

Also, I don't think its fair to compare Geno to Wolf. Wolf is actually a significant re-occurring character in his series, where Geno's only appearance outside of Super Mario RPG was a cameo in a game released a decade ago.

Also, hahaha, I did not think there was anybody left that remembered my works during the pre-Brawl days. I appreciate that you not only loved what I wrote then, but you still continue to enjoy my writings today. It really meant a lot for you to say that. :)

Stickied for easier access.
Thanks. Personally, I did not request for this to be stickied, so thank you to all of those who requested and believed that this thread is a valuable enough resource for it to be stickied. I think that this thread's utility will be particularly shown after we get a formal unveil after E3, and many new guys to the Smash Bros. scene will have little understanding about what the situation is like for various series at this point as well as well as background and analysis for a lot of characters they probably have not even heard of.

I remember reading and rereading your Brawl Ultimate Analyses during my lurking phases on SWF, and am ecstatic to see them return. Major kudos for pointing out that, contrary to deluded belief, characters with clone potential are helped, not hurt by the similarities they bear.

Looking forward to the DK series analysis whenever it comes.
Hahaha, looks like another customer from the past. :) I am glad you enjoyed my pre-Brawl analyses too.

I am sure you will like what I have to say in my DK analysis. ;)
 

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Kinda surprised this was stickied given that this is an opinion thread (no offense), that definitely says a lot so you should be proud Chrono. ;)

Forgot to ask but out of curiosity when can we expect the next one (DK?) and are you planning on finishing this before E3?
 

Thirdkoopa

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I doubt Mother will be receiving any newcomer at all in Smash 4, and perhaps ever again in Smash Bros. The series creator, Itoi, has said that the Mother series is "complete". I think the only things in the future to that franchise are localizations of the two Japan-only titles to the series, a compilation, or possibly remakes.

Also, I don't think its fair to compare Geno to Wolf. Wolf is actually a significant re-occurring character in his series, where Geno's only appearance outside of Super Mario RPG was a cameo in a game released a decade ago.

Also, hahaha, I did not think there was anybody left that remembered my works during the pre-Brawl days. I appreciate that you not only loved what I wrote then, but you still continue to enjoy my writings today. It really meant a lot for you to say that. :)
It's possible in a Smash 5 or DLC at least, at minimal face value. I said this in the Mother thread and I'll say it here: I don't mind a series that has a fair representation. Fair representation =/= Overrepresentation. It wouldn't feel filler. Sure, it'd feel a bit odd, but Fire Emblem getting two Representatives in Melee was surely not normal. I would like to see your commentary on Masked Man nonetheless so it's not just "mother is boring moving on"

I'm more-or-less saying for people to keep their hopes and just not shoot to the moon. People were calling me crazy when I said Wolf had higher priority than Falco and Krystal last Smash; then again, I don't hold popular opinions. When Smash 64 came out, Wolf was only in Star Fox 64. I know what you're trying to get at, but I was just more-or-less mentioning it. I hate wild-ball comparisons or stupid arguments.

Your work pre-brawl days was actually good. Hell, I looked back at my past work, and it's honestly better than that. I do hope you keep going at it and maybe try some new writings in the future. You're doing a great job when it comes to Smash 4 already. I plan to bring "The Probable Character Roster" over once we get actual details of Smash 4

Actually wait, who would want to see it brought back now? I can give it a shot with all I know.

Edit: Actually, one more thing. I honestly don't think we'll see that many franchises get added characters but maybe that's just me being nitpicky. The only franchises that really had any additions in Brawl were DK, SF, Mother, and Kirby, but meh the future is out.
 

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Actually, one more thing. I honestly don't think we'll see that many franchises get added characters but maybe that's just me being nitpicky. The only franchises that really had any additions in Brawl were DK, SF, Mother, and Kirby, but meh the future is out.
Well, the franchises that could arguably warrant a new character this time around is Metroid with Ridley, Kid Icarus with Palutena, and Donkey Kong with King K. Rool. Keep in mind that other choices that get thrown around have a lot of problems with competition, in other words nobody can exactly agree on stuff related to things like Fire Emblem, Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda. Another problem is that a lot of choices suffer from a very shaky basis, ether due to a broken "love it or hate it" type deal, not being deserving enough, or just generally unenthusiastic endeavors.

Also in other news, I'm waiting for the analyse for Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Kirby, retro franchises, and new franchises.
 
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thethirdkoopa said:
Even I don't think he has a guns shot in hell but have you even heard about Fatmanonice? People at least put up quite an interest. I wouldn't call them all morons even if some of them are a bit unrealistic. Hell, when I was a kid playing Smash 64 I Wanted Wolf and well two games later...

Granted I guess I also hold less hate since I've seen how his cycle has gone.
My interest in Geno came straight from his pre-Brawl hype. I was curious about why he gained such hype despite being such an obscure character. When Super Mario RPG came out on the Virtual Console, I decided to check the game out along with Geno and loved both. I would be very pleasantly surprised to see Geno in the next game.
thethirdkoopa said:
I plan to bring "The Probable Character Roster" over once we get actual details of Smash 4

Actually wait, who would want to see it brought back now? I can give it a shot with all I know.

Edit: Actually, one more thing. I honestly don't think we'll see that many franchises get added characters but maybe that's just me being nitpicky. The only franchises that really had any additions in Brawl were DK, SF, Mother, and Kirby, but meh the future is out.
I'd be excited to see it. I myself want to create a spiritual successor version of Wiseguy's prediction thread and see how close I get to guessing the final roster (I already have made a prediction roster already).

As for existing franchise, Pokémon, Zelda and Fire Emblem also got newcomers in Brawl. We got a lot of existing franchise additions in Brawl. That said, the ratio of existing franchise (not including Melee veterans) and new franchise (including retro, misc. and third-parties) getting newcomers will probably be closer than it was in Brawl.
 

Thirdkoopa

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ChronoBound

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On dark horse candidates, I'd suggest adding this guy: Nintendouji.
The game that the Nintendouji is from is really obscure. I believe he was only in one Japan-only game that was only available as a Club Nintendo exclusive. If you really want I will make an entry for him under the non-contender section for the "new series" analysis, but realistic I think he is only going to be a sticker at best.

Alright then. Definitely mention Dark Pit being an alternate color and Magnus begging to be an AT.

I still think you'd be better off grouping them together, not that shouldn't talk about each of them, it's just the act of separating them could lead into some dumb Gamefaqs-like arguments IMO. I would group Young/Toon/Classic Link & Mewtwo/New Form together and give each of them their own paragraph about the chances of each while reminding everyone at the same time that we're talking designs not the character itself (which should have it's own paragraph to begin with).
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I already have those assessments regarding Dark Pit and Magnus in my notes for the Kid Icarus analysis.

Perhaps I will re-group them together, at least for Mewtwo. The Zelda analysis is already completely finished though. I will probably have to do a lot of re-work for Zelda after E3 2013 comes though,

Kinda surprised this was stickied given that this is an opinion thread (no offense), that definitely says a lot so you should be proud Chrono. ;)

Forgot to ask but out of curiosity when can we expect the next one (DK?) and are you planning on finishing this before E3?
Yeah, I was a bit surprised myself, but think its for the greater good overall. A lot of what I am saying although its basically common sense is not really known by those outside Smash Bros. speculation circles. So its definitely going to be a big help once we have more traffic as we approach E3 and when we formally get an E3 unveil.

It's possible in a Smash 5 or DLC at least, at minimal face value. I said this in the Mother thread and I'll say it here: I don't mind a series that has a fair representation. Fair representation =/= Overrepresentation. It wouldn't feel filler. Sure, it'd feel a bit odd, but Fire Emblem getting two Representatives in Melee was surely not normal. I would like to see your commentary on Masked Man nonetheless so it's not just "mother is boring moving on"

I'm more-or-less saying for people to keep their hopes and just not shoot to the moon. People were calling me crazy when I said Wolf had higher priority than Falco and Krystal last Smash; then again, I don't hold popular opinions. When Smash 64 came out, Wolf was only in Star Fox 64. I know what you're trying to get at, but I was just more-or-less mentioning it. I hate wild-ball comparisons or stupid arguments.

Your work pre-brawl days was actually good. Hell, I looked back at my past work, and it's honestly better than that. I do hope you keep going at it and maybe try some new writings in the future. You're doing a great job when it comes to Smash 4 already. I plan to bring "The Probable Character Roster" over once we get actual details of Smash 4

Actually wait, who would want to see it brought back now? I can give it a shot with all I know.

Edit: Actually, one more thing. I honestly don't think we'll see that many franchises get added characters but maybe that's just me being nitpicky. The only franchises that really had any additions in Brawl were DK, SF, Mother, and Kirby, but meh the future is out.
Okay, there was actually quite a bit on this post I feel is wrong.

I strongly doubt Mother will ever get a third slot in Smash Bros. The demand is simply not there, both in the West and Japan.

As for DLC for Smash 4, I think if we did get character DLC for Smash, it would largely consist of Smash Bros. veterans that were cut or newcomers that Sakurai could not implement due to time constraints (think Toon Zelda and possibly Dixie Kong).

As for people yelling about you in regards to Wolf being a higher priority than Krystal, the thing is (I write about this extensively in my Wolf assessment) is that Wolf was always among the most wanted characters for Smash Bros. He got a massive boost in requests from showing up in the E3 2001 trailer, and many people were expecting him for the second Star Fox in Melee.

After Melee's release Wolf was by far the most wanted character for a Star Fox newcomer, and it stayed that way until mid-2006. Really, what made Krystal competitive with Wolf in terms of requests was Sakurai's statement about Zero Suit Samus, which was grossly misinterpreted by female character supporters.

However, even after that event, Wolf was pretty much even with Krystal in terms of requests, in Japan (who hate the post-64 Star Fox games), Wolf had far more requests than Krystal did.

Really I don't know why you say:
People were calling me crazy when I said Wolf had higher priority than Falco and Krystal last Smash; then again, I don't hold popular opinions. When Smash 64 came out, Wolf was only in Star Fox 64.

Considering that Wolf during pre-Brawl, had appearances in Assault, Command, and of course 64 (as well as the scrapped Star Fox 2). Really the lack of game appearances argument could just as much applied to Krystal (who missed the two most acclaimed games to the series), and only appeared in Adventures, Assault, and Comman, as it did to Wolf.

I think you just spent too much time around Krystal fanboys during pre-Brawl. There was plenty of people that felt Wolf was next in line before Krystal. It was really the revelation of "Dark Fox" and the Krystal voice actress leak that Krystal supporters got insufferably arrogant to say stuff like that.

As for FE getting two characters in Melee:
1. Sakurai is a very big fan of FE.
2. Almost every main character to the FE series at that point was feasible as a clone to Marth.

By comparison, there could not have been a DK clone (except possibly DK Jr.) or Kirby clone newcomer made.

As for this statement:
The only franchises that really had any additions in Brawl were DK, SF, Mother, and Kirby, but meh the future is out

Nearly every non-retro veteran franchise (franchises that already had a playable character in Melee) received a newcomer in Brawl except Mario, F-Zero, and Yoshi. Brawl was pretty much almost about beefing up Nintendo's franchise aside from Mario/Zelda for newcomers (which was the focus for Melee).

I am sorry if I sounded critical in this post, but I just wanted to correct a few things you said, so please don't take it personally.

I do appreciate that you have a high thought of my works, and I hope you like the next analysis that I will post at the beginning of next week.

Well, the franchises that could arguably warrant a new character this time around is Metroid with Ridley, Kid Icarus with Palutena, and Donkey Kong with King K. Rool. Keep in mind that other choices that get thrown around have a lot of problems with competition, in other words nobody can exactly agree on stuff related to things like Fire Emblem, Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda. Another problem is that a lot of choices suffer from a very shaky basis, ether due to a broken "love it or hate it" type deal, not being deserving enough, or just generally unenthusiastic endeavors.

Also in other news, I'm waiting for the analyse for Kid Icarus, Fire Emblem, Kirby, retro franchises, and new franchises.
Yeah I actually agree with this. I think the only series that absolutely do need newcomers this time are Metroid, DK, and Kid Icarus. Mario could also use one too, however, the problem is that there is absolutely no consensus on who it should be. Mewtwo and Roy may be the only "new" characters added for Pokemon and FE, so technically they may not count as "newcomers" per se. And for all the other true newcomers for Pokemon and FE there is a lot division and disagreement (people cannot even agree on which FE13 character or female FE character it should be).

As for the analyses you listed, the Kirby series analysis is completely finished. Surprisingly, there was quite a bit written for it (a lot of it talked about Bandanna Dee) and it did have an extensive non-contender section.

As for existing franchise, Pokémon, Zelda and Fire Emblem also got newcomers in Brawl. We got a lot of existing franchise additions in Brawl. That said, the ratio of existing franchise (not including Melee veterans) and new franchise (including retro, misc. and third-parties) getting newcomers will probably be closer than it was in Brawl.
I think if Smash 4 were to have 12 newcomers this time (not including Mewtwo and Roy), they would be better off including reps for new series entirely than scrapping the bottom of the barrel for veteran franchises. Really, in terms of important actors, you really only have Ridley, K. Rool, Palutena, and one of Toad/Bowser Jr./Paper Mario to put in. I would like to think of Dixie Kong as pretty important too, but unfortunately, there is not as much interest in her as a lot of other characters (even Toad has more interest than Dixie). I do think Dixie Kong has a 50/50 shot at getting in though.

But focusing more on series without a playable character, would be for the best this time. Little Mac, Takamaru, Shulk, Isaac, Mega Man, and possibly Dillon or Starfy or Saki could bring a lot more to the table than something like Waluigi could. Ray and Lip could also potentially work as great new reps too, though I am very doubtful on their chances for the actual Smash 4.
 

FalKoopa

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Nintendouji isn't really necessary for me. Your choice on that.

Btw, what are the Mother series characters you are considering to do an analysis on, even if they are non-contenders?

I believe this is the minimum list: Ninten, Ness, Porky, Lucas, Jeff, Kumatora
 

Arcadenik

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Curious about your thoughts on Duck Hunt Dog, Muddy Mole, Medusa, King Hippo, Meowth, Captain N, Villager (Animal Crossing), and other non-contenders. :)
 

Thirdkoopa

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Okay, there was actually quite a bit on this post I feel is wrong.
Sure cool here we go

I strongly doubt Mother will ever get a third slot in Smash Bros. The demand is simply not there, both in the West and Japan.
It's still worth covering. Also, it's there in Japan. Wouldn't be too sure about now (Though to be frank, the only stuff that really DOES have it's popularity there is Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter) and as for West, how the hell do you even poll it? Sonic made it in (Though feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) on a poll at NSider. Nintendo no longer has this. Unless a message board for Smash that Nintendo officially looks at, it's all on the Art/Programming team (Blending can take mixes if you know anything about developing a fighting game), Sakurai, a bit on Namco Bandai, and anyone else leading with him.

West... Honestly, I'm going to come across as a **** here, but a lot of first-party characters don't have a lot of support. That word kind-of gathers from places to places on where you go to. Granted, I'm not trying to say he's on the same level scale or even close as say, Ridley or King K. Rool, but...

As a sidenote, ever in Smash Bros? Never say never. We didn't get Fire Emblem over to the states for a while. Granted, I hold my hopes higher on ports than on remakes, but you, nor I, never truly know.

As for DLC for Smash 4, I think if we did get character DLC for Smash, it would largely consist of Smash Bros. veterans that were cut or newcomers that Sakurai could not implement due to time constraints (think Toon Zelda and possibly Dixie Kong).
Well, you know, some fighting games have gone pretty heavy on DLC, but others tend to avoid it. It's really a matter of what Smash Bros does rather than "Let's speculate what Sakurai/All the others lead developing with him/Namco Bandai" want. Games like MvC3 only received two, yet SFxT or Mortal Kombat we've seen twelve.

Hell, we don't even know if the next Smash won't have it. It's a mute point for now.

Blah blah blah Wolf
The point I was making is that Smash has gone a long way. When it was Smash 64, we didn't even know if there would be a next Smash (though it seemed kinda obvious) so for me to see him in Brawl was honestly happy. I wanted to make people who have had support for a long time in a character feel better.

As for who prioritizes who it's honestly a whole different argument. I personally have a theory that maybe we were to see Wolf in Melee what with the intro trailer and we got Falco instead due to time constraints, but that's all for a rainy day.

As for FE getting two characters in Melee:
1. Sakurai is a very big fan of FE.
2. Almost every main character to the FE series at that point was feasible as a clone to Marth.
I'll agree with that, but I'm more-or-less saying it's possible to go out.

As for this statement:
The only franchises that really had any additions in Brawl were DK, SF, Mother, and Kirby, but meh the future is out

Nearly every non-retro veteran franchise (franchises that already had a playable character in Melee) received a newcomer in Brawl except Mario, F-Zero, and Yoshi. Brawl was pretty much almost about beefing up Nintendo's franchise aside from Mario/Zelda for newcomers (which was the focus for Melee).
I mean as in received a new number as well as a new newcomer. I guess if you want to count the other stuff, sure, but whether the direction is on more new franchises or beefing up the roster is the true debate with... a lot of characters. I'll just keep my thoughts at that. We really don't have any insight considering we've never got commentary one way or the other.

I am sorry if I sounded critical in this post, but I just wanted to correct a few things you said, so please don't take it personally.
I never take this stuff personally unless the person is a douchebag. As a huge game player, a podcast host, and a future game producer? I like talking with other gamers. You did just fine at saying your disagreements.

I do appreciate that you have a high thought of my works, and I hope you like the next analysis that I will post at the beginning of next week.
Honestly, keep it coming. My only two suggestions is that I really do want to see more on what you think of Claus/Dillon. Other then that? You've got quite the player list that will be interesting for me to see.

You've even encouraged me to start Probable Character Roster up, so you've ignited me for sure. What's nice is you have a lot to actually say as well, even if abit rehashed.
 

ChronoBound

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Nintendouji isn't really necessary for me. Your choice on that.

Btw, what are the Mother series characters you are considering to do an analysis on, even if they are non-contenders?

I believe this is the minimum list: Ninten, Ness, Porky, Lucas, Jeff, Kumatora
All of those characters will be talked about in the Mother section so don't worry.


Curious about your thoughts on Duck Hunt Dog, Muddy Mole, Medusa, King Hippo, Meowth, Captain N, Villager (Animal Crossing), and other non-contenders. :)
King Hippo and Captain N are the only two in that list that won't get their own entries. King Hippo is simply another Punch-Out adversary, while Captain N is a non-video game character.
It's still worth covering. Also, it's there in Japan. Wouldn't be too sure about now (Though to be frank, the only stuff that really DOES have it's popularity there is Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter) and as for West, how the hell do you even poll it? Sonic made it in (Though feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) on a poll at NSider. Nintendo no longer has this. Unless a message board for Smash that Nintendo officially looks at, it's all on the Art/Programming team (Blending can take mixes if you know anything about developing a fighting game), Sakurai, a bit on Namco Bandai, and anyone else leading with him.
The problem is that no one is really asking for a Mother newcomer in Japan either. Heck, since Claus is the character you are banging on the drum for most, I think its important to point out that Mother 3 is the most weakly received game in the trilogy in Japan.

As for the West, just from what I have seen on forums since Brawl's release, there has been very little demand for a Mother newcomer.

There is also the fact that Mother has basically been totally inactive since Brawl's release, with the only thing the franchise has had was a Virtual Console re-release for Mother 2/EarthBound. Itoi just a few weeks ago also re-iterated that the Mother series is "finished", and that to be able to convince him to make a Mother 4 would be "impossible".

West... Honestly, I'm going to come across as a **** here, but a lot of first-party characters don't have a lot of support. That word kind-of gathers from places to places on where you go to. Granted, I'm not trying to say he's on the same level scale or even close as say, Ridley or King K. Rool, but...
There are plenty of characters with strong demand this time. Ridley, K. Rool, Mega Man, and Mewtwo are the only ones with legions of highly active supporters though. Characters like Little Mac, Isaac, Roy, and Palutena do have lots of support though.

In Japan there is even less characters they care about than even the West, which is part of the reason why I think Sakurai will probably going into a less character driven direction with Smash 4.

As a sidenote, ever in Smash Bros? Never say never. We didn't get Fire Emblem over to the states for a while. Granted, I hold my hopes higher on ports than on remakes, but you, nor I, never truly know.
Its look very grim for the future of the Mother series when the series creator has repeatedly stated that he is done with the series, and that Mother 3 was the conclusion to it. If you knew what Itoi went through to finish/make Mother 3 (and even Mother 2), you would understand why. Itoi is very closely involved with the Mother series, to the point where the game's entire script is written by him.


Well, you know, some fighting games have gone pretty heavy on DLC, but others tend to avoid it. It's really a matter of what Smash Bros does rather than "Let's speculate what Sakurai/All the others lead developing with him/Namco Bandai" want. Games like MvC3 only received two, yet SFxT or Mortal Kombat we've seen twelve.

Hell, we don't even know if the next Smash won't have it. It's a mute point for now
You are the one who brought up DLC in the first place. Secondly, if character DLC were to happen for Smash 4, I would imagine it would be reserved to veterans who got bumped out due to time constraints as well as possibly newcomers he originally intended (such as Toon Zelda and Dixie Kong in Brawl).

The point I was making is that Smash has gone a long way. When it was Smash 64, we didn't even know if there would be a next Smash (though it seemed kinda obvious) so for me to see him in Brawl was honestly happy. I wanted to make people who have had support for a long time in a character feel better.
There was an announcement that a new Smash Bros. was announced in 1999/2000, and the game sold extremely well. There was little doubt in anyone's mind that the would be a new installment.


As for who prioritizes who it's honestly a whole different argument. I personally have a theory that maybe we were to see Wolf in Melee what with the intro trailer and we got Falco instead due to time constraints, but that's all for a rainy day.
We likely got Falco over Wolf for two reasons, none of which have to deal with time constraints:
1. Falco did better than Wolf on Sakurai's pre-Melee poll.
2. Supposedly, Sakurai was contemplating having either Falco or Wolf as Fox's clone, but felt Falco aesthetically stood out more.



I mean as in received a new number as well as a new newcomer. I guess if you want to count the other stuff, sure, but whether the direction is on more new franchises or beefing up the roster is the true debate with... a lot of characters. I'll just keep my thoughts at that. We really don't have any insight considering we've never got commentary one way or the other.
I don't know what you are trying to say here. We did end up getting newcomers for practically every franchise. If you are saying that FE and Zelda technically did not receive any newcomers since the number of playable characters compared to Melee remained flat, that still does not mean they did not receive newcomers.

DK, Kirby, Metroid, Mother, and Pokemon all had more playable characters than they did in Melee.

I never take this stuff personally unless the person is a douchebag. As a huge game player, a podcast host, and a future game producer? I like talking with other gamers. You did just fine at saying your disagreements.

Honestly, keep it coming. My only two suggestions is that I really do want to see more on what you think of Claus/Dillon. Other then that? You've got quite the player list that will be interesting for me to see.
This is not a list of who I would like to see, but rather who has a realistic shot at showing up (at least the characters with their own pictures). Claus is definitely a non-contender (really any character from Mother is). If Mother were to ever somehow get a third playable character, it would most likely be Porky, whom has an important role in Mother 2 and Mother 3, and is what connects Ness's struggles with that of Lucas's.

Realistically, the only two Mother characters you can expect for Smash 4 is Ness and Lucas.

As for Dillon, I am contemplating adding him to the contender list. Even if he does not make it as a playable character, I am fully expecting him to be an Assist Trophy.

What's nice is you have a lot to actually say as well, even if abit rehashed.
The target audience for this is not people like you. Its for people who have little understanding of Smash Bros. in general. The kind of people who don't know who Takamaru or Shulk is. Also, I don't think "rehashed" is a kind word to describe this work.
 
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