The Ultimate Smash Bros. 4 Character Analysis Topic. (Retro Characters Analysis Is Up!)

[Deleted member]

You forgot to include Giegue in your mother analysis.

It could happen.

I've also asked this question before, here's what he answered on the previous page :

Sorry, your question got buried at the bottom of the last page.

I will post a non-contender analysis for him when I have the time. However, even in Mother 1, he had a rather noodle-like form (and it seemed as though he was in a water tank of some sort). He does not really seem to have the form to become playable. Giygas from Mother 2/EarthBound does not even have a body.

While its possible a trophy could be based off Giygas from Mother 1, looking at how:
1. In Melee, all Mother trophies were based off of either artwork or ingame content.
2. In Brawl, all Mother trophies were based off of ingame content.

It does not seem like there will be a trophy of Giygas in Smash 4. As for the sticker side of things, there was never official artwork made for Giygas in Mother 1 or Mother 2. While the stickers for Mother 3, consisted of sprite rips, due to the age of Mother 1, I don't think a sprite rip sticker for Giygas will happen.

I am generally expecting another Mother ally to become a new Assist Trophy in Smash 4 (I am guessing on Kumatora assuming Lucas comes back).

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

Can I disagree on this part?

Medusa’s only chance for playable status is if Sakurai likes Palutena’s moveset so much he decides to make Medusa into a luigi-fied clone based off of her.

She clearly have the materials to not be Palutena's Luigi. Ability to turn foes into stone, poison, that famous "spoiler uppercut", claw attack, no shield, the snake hair, teleportation (not sure if Palutena's is able to do so), her monster form...
She may be the goddess who was the closest to Palutena (basically her nemesis, being the goddess of Darkness and the Godess of Light), but she clearly is more violent and nasty.

 

[ToothiestAura]

I finally completed my Kid Icarus series analysis. Its around 1,700 words, its not too long, but I think its covers all the bases for that series. As always, I hope those who read it enjoy it as much as the other analyses I have posted.

Small error in your Kid Icarus analysis. You said the March anniversary for Uprising has come and gone, but it's only the 19th. Uprising released March 22nd, 2012 in Japan, March 23rd in North America/Europe, and March 29th in Australia.

As usual it was a very good analysis. It's unlikely she will be unveiled any of those dates anyway, the 22nd and 23rd are a Saturday and a Sunday and the 29th is the following Saturday.

 

[Kapus]

I'm really happy to see these analysis being pumped out again! These essays were my favorite things to read during breakfast time in the morning and during free time at college. Even if some analysis end on rather obvious conclusions that anyone could figure out on a whim, they are extremely enjoyable reads anyway due to how thorough and detailed they are, looking at every aspect, positive and negative. They fascinate me. I never get tired of them. I'm really looking forward to the Retro/New Series analysis in the future, and I'm looking forward to reading your Kid Icarus analysis during my break time. Thank you for providing these and good luck on the rest!

Also, don't feel so bad about going on a little hiatus with these. Everyone has times when they are busy or demotivated. It's good to take a break, actually.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

@ ChronoBound

I'm really surprised that you didn't mention the Palutena leak at all.

Do you know about it?

Regardless, nice analysis as always.

 

[ChronoBound]

I was actually able to keep my promise this time around and looks like I was able to fully complete yet another analysis in time for the first week of April. This time it is for third-party characters. Its one of the most lengthy analyses I have done to date, so it might take a bit of time for people to read through it. Hopefully, it was worth the time and effort that I put into it. As always, I hope those who read this topic enjoy this analysis as much as my previous ones.

Small error in your Kid Icarus analysis. You said the March anniversary for Uprising has come and gone, but it's only the 19th. Uprising released March 22nd, 2012 in Japan, March 23rd in North America/Europe, and March 29th in Australia.

As usual it was a very good analysis. It's unlikely she will be unveiled any of those dates anyway, the 22nd and 23rd are a Saturday and a Sunday and the 29th is the following Saturday.

I was not anticipating on completing my Kid Icarus analysis prior to those dates, and I was personally expecting nothing to be shown pertaining to Palutena for those dates, so that explains the language in my analysis.

Can I disagree on this part?
She clearly have the materials to not be Palutena's Luigi. Ability to turn foes into stone, poison, that famous "spoiler uppercut", claw attack, no shield, the snake hair, teleportation (not sure if Palutena's is able to do so), her monster form...
She may be the goddess who was the closest to Palutena (basically her nemesis, being the goddess of Darkness and the Godess of Light), but she clearly is more violent and nasty.

Sakurai is not making two completely new newcomers for a niche franchise. Kid Icarus fans should be happy that we are most likely getting Palutena and the amount of items announced so far. Medusa's saving grace for inclusion would be being able to be derived based off of Palutena.

I'm really happy to see these analysis being pumped out again! These essays were my favorite things to read during breakfast time in the morning and during free time at college. Even if some analysis end on rather obvious conclusions that anyone could figure out on a whim, they are extremely enjoyable reads anyway due to how thorough and detailed they are, looking at every aspect, positive and negative. They fascinate me. I never get tired of them. I'm really looking forward to the Retro/New Series analysis in the future, and I'm looking forward to reading your Kid Icarus analysis during my break time. Thank you for providing these and good luck on the rest!

Also, don't feel so bad about going on a little hiatus with these. Everyone has times when they are busy or demotivated. It's good to take a break, actually.

It warms my heart to hear this. I am honestly a bit surprised that this topic still has a bit of a following despite the lengthy hiatus I went into with it.

I got three new analyses posted within the last month. However, at this point (starting with the third-party analysis I just posted), there are nothing but massive analyses left to be done. The four last remaining unfinished analyses, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, New Series, and Retro Series, will be larger than most other analyses posted so far.

@ ChronoBound

I'm really surprised that you didn't mention the Palutena leak at all.

Do you know about it?

Regardless, nice analysis as always.

I do know about it, but I did not comment on it because I am unsure as to the legitimacy of the "leak". Regardless, Palutena (alongside Takamaru) is probably the most likely newcomer for Smash 4 outside of those mentioned in that pre-E3 2013 leak.

As to when my next analysis will be posted, I am going to try and set a goal of before the end of April. Key word again folks is try.

Once again, I am thankful for all the feedback and praise.

 

[Dinoman96]

Anthony Higgs is a supporting character in the latest Metroid game, Other M. He is the only member of Adam’s team to have survived the events of Other M. He has a few people who support his inclusion for Smash Bros., although its less than even Dark Samus. Due to his “assist” role in Other M, he is probably the most likely new Assist Trophy to be added for the Metroid series.

Whoops.

 

[ChronoBound]

Whoops.

You win some, you lose some. There is nothing stopping Metroid from receiving an additional new Assist Trophy, though it probably is not likely.

I got Ashley and Waluigi right though in terms of showing up as Assist Trophies.

 

[Erotic&Heretic]

Sakurai is not making two completely new newcomers for a niche franchise. Kid Icarus fans should be happy that we are most likely getting Palutena and the amount of items announced so far. Medusa's saving grace for inclusion would be being able to be derived based off of Palutena.

Hm... I'm not saying Medusa WILL happen (but I hope so), she just is very different from Palutena. It would be saying that Samurai Goroh could only be in by being a Falcon clone.

Although she is a staff weilding goddess like Palutena, she has a lot of things that would be stupid not to use.
Plus, Sakurai is aiming to put original newcommers, I doubt we'll see new clones.

 

[smashkirby]

Wow! Great analysis as always, Chrono! Say, when do you think you'll be able to do a Retro analysis? (Not to rush you, or anything.)

 

[Autumn ♫]

Very well done analysis, Chrono. If I may ask, could you add Wonder Red to the non-contenders?

 

[andimidna]

This thread is discussing 3rd party characters?

 

[---]

Good analysis, though my main critique would be the lack of mentioning Ryu Hayabusa.

With Temco Koei's relationship with Nintendo in recent years (Samurai Warriors/Murasame Castle, Metroid: Other M, DoA 3DS/Metroid, Pokemon Conquest, Ninja Gaiden 3 port, Hyrule Warriors), and history on previous Nintendo platforms, I do think they're at least worth a mention in comparison to many of the 3rd parties you listed (such as Banzo Kazooie/Sora).

 

[ChronoBound]

Wow! Great analysis as always, Chrono! Say, when do you think you'll be able to do a Retro analysis? (Not to rush you, or anything.)

Thanks. I appreciate it. I think the Retro analysis may be the next one that is posted, that or "new" franchises. I am going to try and have another analysis finished and posted before the end of April. At this point only four analyses need to be posted.

Very well done analysis, Chrono. If I may ask, could you add Wonder Red to the non-contenders?

Thanks again. Wonder Red's analysis will be under the New series analysis since Nintendo partially holds the rights to The Wonderful 101.

This thread is discussing 3rd party characters?

Yes, that is the latest analysis that was posted, and I would appreciate discussion on that topic.

Good analysis, though my main critique would be the lack of mentioning Ryu Hayabusa.

With Temco Koei's relationship with Nintendo in recent years (Samurai Warriors/Murasame Castle, Metroid: Other M, DoA 3DS/Metroid, Pokemon Conquest, Ninja Gaiden 3 port, Hyrule Warriors), and history on previous Nintendo platforms, I do think they're at least worth a mention in comparison to many of the 3rd parties you listed (such as Banzo Kazooie/Sora).

I knew I was forgetting someone under the non-contender section. When I have the time I will add in a Ryu Hayabusa analysis.

There does not seem to be as much interest in this analysis as much as other previous larger ones. I think it is partially because there seems to be much less contention other who the guests will be this time than there was during the pre-Brawl era. The other is that maybe people don't take track of new updates that happen with this topic since it is not pinned. The lack of a character confirmation during the month of March has also probably contributed to less interest in Smash 4.

Once again, I appreciate the interest that was shown in my latest analysis.

 

[andimidna]

"However, on the whole, if there is any third-party newcomer that has the possibility of getting into Smash 4 that is not named Pac-Man, its Bayonetta."

Agreed.
0. Sonic and Megaman
1. Snake returning
2. Pac-Man added
3. Bayonetta added
4. A 6th choice added

This is the list of likelihood IMO.
Sakurai's interest in returning characters and Kojima's interest in seeing Snake return should be enough to at least add him this late if they weren't already planning on it.
Pac-Man is definitely the next most iconic.
Bayonetta has the most uniqueness potential, and her game may need it. The typical Wii U user is not one of her series fanbase.
Smash attention I could only see as being positive and the more 3rd party, the better IMO.

That was a lot of text, liked the analysis.

 

[woopyfrood]

Once again, Chronobound's skillful postponing of the Pokemon entry has saved him from looking like a fool, save for the fact that Greninja was not listed in his OP.

A year ago, and perhaps still today, the Pokemon series was the most problematic for the Smash series. Rather than make the largely futile effort of predicting how its representation will be handled this game, ChronoBound wisely opted to do all the other, much easier analysis first, biding for time to let the Pokemon issue reveal as much of itself before he must inevitably start answering the hard questions. Sure enough, Sakurai has made his job easier.

 

[ChronoBound]

Once again, Chronobound's skillful postponing of the Pokemon entry has saved him from looking like a fool, save for the fact that Greninja was not listed in his OP.

A year ago, and perhaps still today, the Pokemon series was the most problematic for the Smash series. Rather than make the largely futile effort of predicting how its representation will be handled this game, ChronoBound wisely opted to do all the other, much easier analysis first, biding for time to let the Pokemon issue reveal as much of itself before he must inevitably start answering the hard questions. Sure enough, Sakurai has made his job easier.

Every other analysis is done at this point with the exceptions of Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Retro, and New Series. The thing is that series like Pokemon and FE not only have a lot of contenders, but also many of the contenders need incredibly detailed analyses.

And to be fair, I did put "new trainer" as a contender (and one of the options explored would be the X/Y trainer). That Sakurai is getting rid of transformations entirely de-confirms Pokemon Trainer entirely, and I think things look dire for Squirtle and Ivysaur.

Edit: Just found out Dark Samus is an Assist Trophy. Hmm, I said that was the best that character could have hoped for.

 

[woopyfrood]

Incredibly detailed is right. I won't lie, I just want to see you write the comprehensive essay on every single little thing Mewtwo has going for him.

 

[ChronoBound]

Incredibly detailed is right. I won't lie, I just want to see you write the comprehensive essay on every single little thing Mewtwo has going for him.

Mewtwo has a lot going for him. He is the single most wanted character in Japan for one (and likely the rest of the world).

The only thing going against Mewtwo is that if Pokemon is locked to only five slots (and that is a big if), he is going to have to fight it out with Jigglypuff for that last slot. It will be a battle between massive requests and present relevancy versus perfect attendance seniority.

However, I can't see Sakurai being dumb enough wanting to throw out one or the other due to wanting to keep the character selection screen "clean".

The ones I would really be worried about are Squirtle and Ivysaur.

Also, in light of all the confirmations and de-confirmations that happened this week, there are going to be quite a few edits and changes made to the already posted analyses, the contender list, as well as added in analyses for the veteran/newcomer confirmation section. These will happen next week.

I am going to try and be ambitious and get two more series analyses done before the end of April. My goal will be to one out as soon as possible. That will leave only two more analyses left to be completed by the time May rolls around.

Considering that we will probably know the entire roster some time in either August or September, I need to step things up. I was originally anticipating a November release.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

You're going to need a lot of dedication and time in order to update your analysis considering the mass amount of disconfirmations.

 

[ChronoBound]

You're going to need a lot of dedication and time in order to update your analysis considering the mass amount of disconfirmations.

I think these are all of the de-confirmations:
- Dark Samus
- Saki
- Lyn
- Samurai Goroh (probably the biggest one)
- Waluigi (need to edit him out)
- Midna

Analyses that need updating:
- Ridley (I would not even say his chances are 50/50 now, its below it)
- Waddle Dee (King Dedede now only throws Gordos, though Waddle Dee's now show up as enemies in Smash Run)
- K. Rool (Kritters showing up in Smash Run is good news for him)
- Black Shadow (Goroh being de-confirmed boosts his chances a tiny bit, still not expecting a second playable F-Zero character)
- Palutena (Pit getting a new Final Smash practically confirms her, probably now the most likely newcomer outside of Mii and Pac-Man).
- Pac-Man (there is both an item based off a Namco arcade classic and an Assist Trophy based off a Namco arcade classic).

The whole Pokemon contender section needs to be revamped entirely.

Are there any other de-confirmations that I am forgetting?

 

[Tepig2000]

Meowth is deconfirmed too.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Impa's chances are significantly lower... She still has a chance to be a semi-clone of Sheik now that she's a separate character however.

 

[---]

I think these are all of the de-confirmations:
- Dark Samus
- Saki
- Lyn
- Samurai Goroh (probably the biggest one)
- Waluigi (need to edit him out)
- Midna

Analyses that need updating:
- Ridley (I would not even say his chances are 50/50 now, its below it)
- Waddle Dee (King Dedede now only throws Gordos, though Waddle Dee's now show up as enemies in Smash Run)
- K. Rool (Kritters showing up in Smash Run is good news for him)
- Black Shadow (Goroh being de-confirmed boosts his chances a tiny bit, still not expecting a second playable F-Zero character)
- Palutena (Pit getting a new Final Smash practically confirms her, probably now the most likely newcomer outside of Mii and Pac-Man).
- Pac-Man (there is both an item based off a Namco arcade classic and an Assist Trophy based off a Namco arcade classic).

The whole Pokemon contender section needs to be revamped entirely.

Are there any other de-confirmations that I am forgetting?

I'm in the boat that Ridley was de-confirmed, but I will admit that we could be looking at another Toon Link/Punch Out Stage situation.

It should be noted that Zoroark appeared in the crowd of Pokeball Pokemon in Greninja's trailer.

You may want to change Miis, as they appeared in the Find Mii stage and were simply used by Sakurai for online demonstrations in the Direct.

There was also another recent "leak" from the E3 guy saying that Palutena, Chrom, Shulk, Chorus Men (Rhythm Heaven), and a Pokemon from XY (which is confirmed) would be playable.

 

[stan423321]

I am now absolutely torn up regarding Ridley's chances (note: I'm currently neither supporter or opponent of the dragon for various reasons). On one hand, Sakurai could be just oblivious to Ridley's popularity. On the other hand, him being a great troll (Pseudo-Palutena got me literally off the chair) he could be trolling. On the third hand, he could be trying his chances at meta-trolling. On the fourth hand, he could be meta-meta-trolling. On the infinite-th hand we realize that this string of metas could just go on forever, and Sakurai is most probably trolling us on this level. I just give up.

 

[FalKoopa]

Kamek was (kind of) disconfirmed. Magikoopas did appear in Smash Run.

 

[woopyfrood]

Personally, I'd keep a record of your analyses before the edits. Goes to show how our perceptions change when new information is introduced.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

@ ChronoBound You might want to take note that waluigi was for some reason moved to Wario's franchise. I don't know if that means anything to your analysis, but.....

 

[Swamp Sensei]

So @ ChronoBound

What do you think of Sal's new leak?

 

[ChronoBound]

@ ChronoBound You might want to take note that waluigi was for some reason moved to Wario's franchise. I don't know if that means anything to your analysis, but.....

I don't think it means anything. Probably a small mistake.

So @ ChronoBound

What do you think of Sal's new leak?

I think Palutena is likely going to happen regardless. As for Shulk, I do see him as more like than a Golden Sun character at this point (the trend seems to be for Sakurai to pull most of his newcomers that had prominent new software during the interim between Brawl and Smash 4). Chrom is interesting as I was not expecting him as a stand alone fighter in the event Ike returns. Chrom getting in might be bad news for Ike (especially considering if Sakurai has no qualm with axing Squirtle and Ivysaur).

Chorus Men (from Rhythm Heaven) seems to fit the pattern of Sakurai wanting to add newcomers to Nintendo franchises that sell extremely well (see Animal Crossing, Wii Fit, and Mii), but yet have a very low amount of requests from the actual Smash Bros. fanbase.

The leak also mentioned a "Pokemon from X/Y", we later ended up getting Greninja.

If this really is from the same person that leaked Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, Mega Man, Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man last year, I would definitely believe it. However, there is no way of verifying it as so.

Also, unlike last time, Palutena, Shulk, and Chrom are pretty safe choices. If this guy had been specific with his X/Y Pokemon, I would say Chorus Men would be good as confirmed. However, for now I will keep it in mind, though I am not going to treat Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men as "confirmed" like I have with Mii and Pac-Man (there are so many strong hints going on now for those two).

I made a multitude of changes to the various analyses I have made so far:

- Mario series: I edited out the Waluigi analysis in the non-contender section due to his confirmation as an Assist Trophy.
- DK series: I updated K. Rool's analysis talking about the Kremlings appearing in Smash Run, as well as the rise in requests for Dixie Kong.
- Zelda series: I edited out Sheik's analysis due to her confirmation. I edited out Impa's analysis, and made a condensed version of it under the non-contender section. I also edited a bit of Toon Zelda's analysis talking about how Zelda's new Phantom move might help her, and editted out talk about how she might have to compete with Impa. I also edited out Midna's analysis in the non-contender section due her confirmation as an Assist Trophy.
- Metroid series: I edited out Zero Suit Samus's analysis due to her confirmation. I edited Ridley's analysis talking about Sakurai again making strong hints that Ridley is a stage hazard. I also edited out Dark Samus's analysis in the non-contender section due to her confirmation as an Assist Trophy, and edited Anthony Higgs's analysis under the non-contender section.
- Yoshi series: I edited out Yoshi's analysis due to his confirmation. I also talked a bit about the confirmation of Magikoopas in Smash Run in Kamek's analysis under the non-contender section.
- Kirby series: I edited Waddle Dee's analysis to talk about the confirmation that King Dedede now exclusively throws Gordos, and how Waddle Dee's appear as enemies in Smash Run. I also edited out Knuckle Joe's analysis in the non-contender section due to his confirmation as an Assist Trophy.
- Star Fox series: I edited out Andross's analysis in the non-contender section due to his confirmation as an Assist Trophy.
- F-Zero series: I edited out Samurai Goroh's analysis due to his confirmation as an Assist Trophy.
- Wario series: I edited out Ashley's analysis under the non-contender section due to her confirmation as an Assist Trophy.
- Kid Icarus series: I edited Palutena's analysis talking about Pit receiving a new Final Smash.
- Third-Party: I editted Pac-Man's analysis talking about the Namco item and Assist Trophy, and added in a Ryu Hayabusa analysis under the non-contender section.

Most notably I added in a whole bunch of analyses under the Newcomer/Veteran Confirmation section:
- Greninja
- Yoshi (nothing to say)
- Zero Suit Samus (nothing to say)
- Sheik (only hurts Impa)
- Charizard

Also, added some small de-confirmation analyses for these characters:
- Waluigi
- Ashley
- Lyn
- Saki
- Midna
- Dark Samus

Also, I probably will only be able to get out one more analysis (out of my remaining four) before the end of April. I originally said I wanted to be ambitious and get out two, but it looks like only one will be complete in time before May begins.

 

[Dinoman96]

If this really is from the same person that leaked Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, Mega Man, Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man last year, I would definitely believe it. However, there is no way of verifying it as so.

Salromano did say it was from the same source in his article.

http://gematsu.com/2014/04/rumor-shulk-palutena-set-super-smash-bros

Today, we received a new e-mail from the same tipster, who claims Pac-Man and Mii are still on the way

I believe it's been said that Sal doesn't want the leaker to be exposed, so he's trying to keep him anonymous.

He also made a big point recently about not doing this just for hits:

http://smashboards.com/threads/ssb4-rumours-and-leaks.338842/page-791#post-16627481

So I'll take his word for it. I think it now mostly boils down to whether Sal's tipper is messing with us or not. I think the second list is likely to be real, but some would argue he just wants to trick people after getting WFT correct.

 

[ChronoBound]

According to another leaker named RosalinaX (supposedly someone that has been reliable with Mario Kart 8 leaks), the roster will have 48 characters, and four characters from Brawl have been cut.

Combining this with the Gematsu leaks, here is what the final roster may be if both people are reliable:

- Everyone from Brawl sans Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Ike.
- One out of Mewtwo, Takamaru, or a DK newcomer (heavily leaning towards Mewtwo)
- The 11 newcomers leaked by Gematsu + Rosalina

My question to those reading this topic is to find out whether this RosalinaX guy has really been reliable with his Mario Kart 8 leaks, and what exactly he has been proven right on in regards to it.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

According to another leaker named RosalinaX (supposedly someone that has been reliable with Mario Kart 8 leaks), the roster will have 48 characters, and four characters from Brawl have been cut.

Combining this with the Gematsu leaks, here is what the final roster may be if both people are reliable:

- Everyone from Brawl sans Snake, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Ike.
- One out of Mewtwo, Takamaru, or a DK newcomer (heavily leaning towards Mewtwo)
- The 11 newcomers leaked by Gematsu + Rosalina

My question to those reading this topic is to find out whether this RosalinaX guy has really been reliable with his Mario Kart 8 leaks, and what exactly he has been proven right on in regards to it.

I doubt Rosalina X is legit, considering he said that the roster size may change, which would contradict the idea that 4 cuts are "inevitable"

 

[ChronoBound]

I doubt Rosalina X is legit, considering he said that the roster size may change, which would contradict the idea that 4 cuts are "inevitable"

Yeah, however, for those four (Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Ike), it may be they can't be added back in for various reasons.

Snake: Because Konami owns the rights to him, and it is probably too late at this point to do all the legal wrangling to not only add in Snake but add in all the Metal Gear content.
Ivysaur: Sakurai has said that the Pokemon Company determines content in Smash Bros., and working with them is difficult. They may not greenlighted Ivysaur.
Squirtle: Same as Ivysaur
Ike: Chrom may end up being Ike with a few tweaks. If that is the case, he may feel having both of them is kind of redundant (kind of like having both Toon Link and Young Link though not as extreme).

More characters being added at the last minute may go to Lucas/Wolf style possible clones such as Bowser Jr. or Dixie Kong.

 

[Kon]

Nice update ^^

I think Greninja's playable appearance means even more for the roster:
1) Newer games can still get a rep (there were people expecting a Pokémon from gen5 because gen6 wasn't released until October 2013 and therefore probably not taken into account which was proven wrong by Greninja making an appearance)
2) every game announced before Pokémon X/Y release could stand a chance being taken into account by Sakurai (DKC:TF, SM3DW, Pikmin 3,...)

Oh btw: Even the moves from the Direct have shown one thing: There are moves based on Pikmin 3 (Olimar's recovery move!) and therefore movesets can be changed even for pretty new games. This is another proof new games are taken into account (and by new I mean much closer to when SSB4 will be released)

Kid Icarus:Uprising was released in 2012 and we had many games released in 2013 or at least announced. I also think Dillon from DRW got a small boost as for now, there is a good chance of Dillon being at least known by Sakurai as both DRW games were released in 2012 and 2013. Mallo from Pullblox/Fallblox gets also a push by this while I don't think Mallo has enough moveset potential(and therefore I expect a Pullblox/Fallblox stage perhaps)

Oh and while I support King K.Rool, I can't say Dixie's chances are exactly the same as before the Smash Direct because this would be wrong. Dixie as a playable character was at least known since E3 2013. Therefore she could have gotten a boost. And as you mentioned in your DK series analysis, @ ChronoBound , Dixie isn't that hard to implement. So there is a chance Dixie got a spot in the roster because of the final boost of DKC:TF.

I also wanted to say you should update the overall analysis of the Legend of Zelda analysis and the Metroid analysis too as these are a bit, well, strange. (as you are still talking in the overall analysis of Sheik being likely and Zero Suit Samus being likely while both have been confirmed^^)

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Yeah, however, for those four (Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Ike), it may be they can't be added back in for various reasons.

Snake: Because Konami owns the rights to him, and it is probably too late at this point to do all the legal wrangling to not only add in Snake but add in all the Metal Gear content.
Ivysaur: Sakurai has said that the Pokemon Company determines content in Smash Bros., and working with them is difficult. They may not greenlighted Ivysaur.
Squirtle: Same as Ivysaur
Ike: Chrom may end up being Ike with a few tweaks. If that is the case, he may feel having both of them is kind of redundant (kind of like having both Toon Link and Young Link though not as extreme).

More characters being added at the last minute may go to Lucas/Wolf style possible clones such as Bowser Jr. or Dixie Kong.

Chrom being in would have the biggest ramification in general, considering him being in would go against the whole uniqueness thing Sakurai was stressing about. It also would show that he has no problem representing FE with newcomer characters that don't truly represent something new, conceptually speaking, as Robin is also a main character and wasn't chosen.

 

[Deleted member]

I think Palutena is likely going to happen regardless. As for Shulk, I do see him as more like than a Golden Sun character at this point (the trend seems to be for Sakurai to pull most of his newcomers that had prominent new software during the interim between Brawl and Smash 4). Chrom is interesting as I was not expecting him as a stand alone fighter in the event Ike returns. Chrom getting in might be bad news for Ike (especially considering if Sakurai has no qualm with axing Squirtle and Ivysaur).

Chorus Men (from Rhythm Heaven) seems to fit the pattern of Sakurai wanting to add newcomers to Nintendo franchises that sell extremely well (see Animal Crossing, Wii Fit, and Mii), but yet have a very low amount of requests from the actual Smash Bros. fanbase.

The leak also mentioned a "Pokemon from X/Y", we later ended up getting Greninja.

If this really is from the same person that leaked Wii Fit Trainer, Villager, Mega Man, Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man last year, I would definitely believe it. However, there is no way of verifying it as so.

Also, unlike last time, Palutena, Shulk, and Chrom are pretty safe choices. If this guy had been specific with his X/Y Pokemon, I would say Chorus Men would be good as confirmed. However, for now I will keep it in mind, though I am not going to treat Shulk, Chrom, and Chorus Men as "confirmed" like I have with Mii and Pac-Man (there are so many strong hints going on now for those two).

Considering that the Pokemon Trainer was a heavily flawed concept; Squirtle and Ivysaur were probably cut (unless we hear otherwise) due to gameplay reason and not because of "recency" or time constraints. I don't think their cut has any bearing on Ike getting in (I still believe that Ike is very likely returning even after Chrom being leaked).

I also am doubting the RosalinaX leak if only because Sakurai has hinted a retro newcomer and Mewtwo; which would give us fourteen newcomers (and in turn, at least forty-nine characters as I can't see us getting more than four cuts and less than fourteen additions at this point).

 

[Aurora Jenny]

@ ChronoBound

@ Kon is correct about The Overall analysis for Zelda and Metroid. Also the last paragraph for Metroid's introduction needs attention as well. I spotted 4 other things as well you overlooked (may not have considered.)

Wario:

Overall Analysis should be edited to reflect that you were correct in another Assist Trophy coming from this franchise in Ashley.

Kid Icarus:

Other Kid Icarus Uprising Characters: You were dead on about Phospora being a trophy.

Pacman Analysis

Might want to edit the paragraph about opportunities to reveal him since the 3DS version is coming out in the summer.

Saki Analysis

One thing to point out as noted by several other Smashers on the board is that Saki still doesn't have a personal franchise symbol. This heavily indicates that there will be no playable characters from his series.

 

[Arcadenik]

More characters being added at the last minute may go to Lucas/Wolf style possible clones such as Bowser Jr. or Dixie Kong.

Really wish we could add Toad to this group...

 

[ChronoBound]

I finally completed another analysis. This time it is for Retro Characters. It is a very lengthy analysis too, coming at over 6,500 words. I put a lot of time into it, so hopefully it gets a little more attention than my last several analyses have been getting.

At this point, there are only three more analyses I have yet to complete (Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and New Series). It has been nearly a year since I first started this topic. My how time flies.

My goal will be to get yet another analysis completed before the year anniversary hits for this topic.

I am personally hoping to have all of the analyses done and completed by the time E3 2014 rolls around, however, it may end up that I will only have one analysis left to post by the time we get the E3 Nintendo Direct.

I thank all of you for continuing to follow this topic. As always, I hope you all enjoy reading this latest analysis as much as my previous ones. This one was among the more anticipated ones, so hopefully the wait was worth it.