The Riddle That Drove H1roshi Mad.

[EternalCrusade]

Eternal has made me think another thing

People dont actually understand this
they just have people explain it to them sooooooooo many times that they have to say they get it
I get it too i just dont agree with your reasonings. Hiroshi had hungrybox and cpt crunch explain it to him like literally 15 times and he didnt agree every time finally he gave up and said he understood it.
I think you give up too easy theres no way im going to believe one out of the two has more chances of being melee.

Why is it that no matter what I say, people question my intelligence? I understand all sides of this argument so I may be presenting my views a little awkwardly, but after reading the post by Everalsting, I now see the math behind it and I now see why switching would be succesful 66.66~ percent of the time.

You're thinking that when you choose a door and then one of the two losing doors is eliminated, the odds increase to 1/2 because it can't still be 1/3, right? There's no way that it's 1/3, because if it's 1/3, then how would you split up the fractions? 1/3 is the car, 1/3 is the goat that wasn't eliminated...so what's the other 1/3? This would mean that the door you chose has a 1/3 chance of being the car and the door that has been left alone thus far has a 2/3 chance of being the car, which doesn't make any sense since you're splitting 2 things among 2 doors.

But other people are thinking that since at the beginning of the game, the odds were 1/3, those same odds will stay with you forever until the game is won or lost, no matter how many losing doors are shown. So if we have the exact same situation, except with 1000 doors, and it comes down to the last 2, then by staying with your door, your odds are still a very terrible 1/1000, but by switching, you are almost gauranteed to win with a 999/1000 chance. What Everlasting said makes sense when you just sit down and think about it logically, but like I said, I understand all sides to this riddle so I'm contradicting myself, confusing myself, and presenting my arguments awkwardly...

 

[MusicalMike]

It's okay EC, we love you :D.

 

[Finch]

Ok I thought about it and read Eternal Crusade's 1000 door example and I get it.


Edit: I'll post my explaination of it in case it helps.

So you have 1000 doors. There is no way in hell you are going to pick the right answer, so you pick a random door. The nice host shows you 998 wrong doors and leaves you with the door you picked and the other door. One of these remaining doors is the right one, and since you know there's no way in hell you picked the right one, you switch to the other one. So basically the host told you which door was the correct one. There is a 1/1000 chance you picked the right door in the beginning, so why the hell wouldn't you switch?

This still applies to the 3 door situation, but it's harder to understand that way.

 

[Gerbil]

*repost*

The probability you select the correct door (before the host opens a door and asks you whether you want to change) is 1/3, because the three doors are equally likely to be the correct door. The probability this is the correct door does not change once the game show host opens one of the other doors, because he will always open a door that the prize is not behind.
The probability that you selected incorrectly is the probability the prize is behind one of the two doors you did not select. Consequently, the probability that you selected incorrectly is 2/3. If you selected incorrectly, when the game show host opens a door to show you that the prize is not behind it, the prize is behind the other door. So, by changing doors, the probability you win is 2/3. In other words, you should always change doors when given the chance to do so by the game show host. This doubles the probability that you will win.

 

[Zoro]

Why is it that no matter what I say, people question my intelligence? I understand all sides of this argument so I may be presenting my views a little awkwardly, but after reading the post by Everalsting, I now see the math behind it and I now see why switching would be succesful 66.66~ percent of the time.

You're thinking that when you choose a door and then one of the two losing doors is eliminated, the odds increase to 1/2 because it can't still be 1/3, right? There's no way that it's 1/3, because if it's 1/3, then how would you split up the fractions? 1/3 is the car, 1/3 is the goat that wasn't eliminated...so what's the other 1/3? This would mean that the door you chose has a 1/3 chance of being the car and the door that has been left alone thus far has a 2/3 chance of being the car, which doesn't make any sense since you're splitting 2 things among 2 doors.

But other people are thinking that since at the beginning of the game, the odds were 1/3, those same odds will stay with you forever until the game is won or lost, no matter how many losing doors are shown. So if we have the exact same situation, except with 1000 doors, and it comes down to the last 2, then by staying with your door, your odds are still a very terrible 1/1000, but by switching, you are almost gauranteed to win with a 999/1000 chance. What Everlasting said makes sense when you just sit down and think about it logically, but like I said, I understand all sides to this riddle so I'm contradicting myself, confusing myself, and presenting my arguments awkwardly...

I never insulted your intelligence

im saying that you were easily convinced only because they brainwashed you !

LOL

 

[JackHouser]

Try considering it like this

You entered a contest where you pick one out of a million cards, one card gets you a 100,000 dollars.....

they take away all the cards you didnt pick and leave you with one, and ask you if ur going to rechoose......of course you are , cause unless you picked the right one you ( 1 out of a million) you re going to choose the one they leave you................ its the same thing for a car and 3 doors

 

[Rx-]

Zoro is right, this riddle sucks.




I have 52 goats if anyone is interested. They are purebred.

 

[Zoro]

Why is it that no matter what I say, people question my intelligence? I understand all sides of this argument so I may be presenting my views a little awkwardly, but after reading the post by Everalsting, I now see the math behind it and I now see why switching would be succesful 66.66~ percent of the time.

You're thinking that when you choose a door and then one of the two losing doors is eliminated, the odds increase to 1/2 because it can't still be 1/3, right? There's no way that it's 1/3, because if it's 1/3, then how would you split up the fractions? 1/3 is the car, 1/3 is the goat that wasn't eliminated...so what's the other 1/3? This would mean that the door you chose has a 1/3 chance of being the car and the door that has been left alone thus far has a 2/3 chance of being the car, which doesn't make any sense since you're splitting 2 things among 2 doors.

But other people are thinking that since at the beginning of the game, the odds were 1/3, those same odds will stay with you forever until the game is won or lost, no matter how many losing doors are shown. So if we have the exact same situation, except with 1000 doors, and it comes down to the last 2, then by staying with your door, your odds are still a very terrible 1/1000, but by switching, you are almost gauranteed to win with a 999/1000 chance. What Everlasting said makes sense when you just sit down and think about it logically, but like I said, I understand all sides to this riddle so I'm contradicting myself, confusing myself, and presenting my arguments awkwardly...

The riddle was for 3 doors not 1000

of course switching would be better if the amount of goats increases but when it comes down to 3 doors like the riddle says theres no difference.Switching or staying between two doors is 50 50

 

[Zoro]

Try considering it like this

You entered a contest where you pick one out of a million cards, one card gets you a 100,000 dollars.....

they take away all the cards you didnt pick and leave you with one, and ask you if ur going to rechoose......of course you are , cause unless you picked the right one you ( 1 out of a million) you re going to choose the one they leave you................ its the same thing for a car and 3 doors

Thats a ****in million jack!
we are talking about 3 ****in doors! lol

and they take away one
so there is only 2

there is absolutely no difference at that point between switching or staying.

 

[Vijin]

I dont think im wrong

your just looking at it differently than me

for me its 50 50 because its either ONE of TWO doors 1 of two is one half, one half is fifty fifty chance.

That's the point of the trick. Most people will look at it that way. I was also wondering how it couldn't be 50/50 until Gerbil posted how it works. It makes more sense as to why changing would increase your chances of picking the right door.

 

[Fenrir VII]

Yeah...I'ma try to explain this. ...it's a hard concept, though.


Yes, if it's a decision between two doors, one with a prize, one with nothing, the odds are a fifty-fifty split...pick one and go. 50%


The deal with this problem is not the possibility of the prize being behind one of two doors...it's the probability of you picking the right door from the start.

I'm trying to explain this in a way other people haven't, but I'll repeat some...


From the start, there are three doors, one containing the prize. Therefore, you have a 33.3% chance of choosing the right one. You make your decision, and boom, one door is eliminated, and you can choose to switch.

This gives the feeling of a one-to-one problem with a 50% chance, but it's not. The problem you have at this point is that from the start, there were three doors. Of course, one has been eliminated, but it doesn't change the fact that there were three.

When you chose, you had a 33.3% chance of being right....a 66.7% chance of being wrong. It really doesn't matter how many options there were/are now...that percentage doesn't change. If it were ten doors, and it dropped to two, you would have had a 10% chance of being right with the first guess. With each dropped door, the percentage that you were wrong from the start stays the same.

Therefore, in the case with three doors, when the number of doors drops to two, you still have a 66.7% chance of being wrong initially. And since there are only two doors left, switching your vote means you now have the same chance of success that you initially had for failure. You now have a 66.7% chance of being right.

If the problem started with two doors, yes, it is a fifty-fifty... but the addition of the third door effects the probability that you were right with your first guess...and that's what factors into the 2 door scenario. It's not about what the possibility of the prize being behind one of the two, now...it's the probability of you being right initially.

 

[Zoro]

I agree with the post above this one

if you say to me
it's the probability of you being right initially.

then yeah its better to switch of course
thats why i understand that this is the text book answer

I just dont think in a realistic situation if this happened in real life i would switch.
I feel like at that point it would be a 50 50 i would completely disregard the fact that at one point it was 3 and think about it as a completely new situation which is instead of being able to choose from three i can choose from 2. I would think that the probability would reset.

I guess its just how people word the riddle / question
fenrir does a nice job tho

this is just how it makes sense to me

 

[theONEjanitor]

EC i wasn't insulting anyone's intelligence, but obviously people don't get it, because if you disagree that switching is the better choice, you are wrong, mathematically, logically, in every way. And a few people are wrong, which means the explanations given, they did not understand, so I attempted to make it simpler, but I think i failed.

my post was pretty much exactly the same as fenrir's though.

 

[h1roshi]

Lemme explain this in a simpler way to people.

Since there are three doors, the probability that you selected wrong is double the probability that you selected the right one. Meaning it is twice more likely that the door you chose was WRONG. Meaning you PROBABLY chose the wrong door.

This remains true, even after you are shown the other door that is incorrect. It still remains true that you PROBABLY selected incorrectly from the beginning. Because there was a 2/3 chance of you doing so. That doesn't change. Given that you PROBABLY selected incorrectly, it makes sense probability wise that you should switch, because if you selected incorrectly, which you PROBABLY did according to your odds, that means the other door IS the correct door.

if you end up having selected the right door from the very beginning, you will have simply done the improbable.

its more likely you have the wrong door, because it WAS from the very beginning. That doesn't change.

Yeah...I'ma try to explain this. ...it's a hard concept, though.


Yes, if it's a decision between two doors, one with a prize, one with nothing, the odds are a fifty-fifty split...pick one and go. 50%


The deal with this problem is not the possibility of the prize being behind one of two doors...it's the probability of you picking the right door from the start.

I'm trying to explain this in a way other people haven't, but I'll repeat some...


From the start, there are three doors, one containing the prize. Therefore, you have a 33.3% chance of choosing the right one. You make your decision, and boom, one door is eliminated, and you can choose to switch.

This gives the feeling of a one-to-one problem with a 50% chance, but it's not. The problem you have at this point is that from the start, there were three doors. Of course, one has been eliminated, but it doesn't change the fact that there were three.

When you chose, you had a 33.3% chance of being right....a 66.7% chance of being wrong. It really doesn't matter how many options there were/are now...that percentage doesn't change. If it were ten doors, and it dropped to two, you would have had a 10% chance of being right with the first guess. With each dropped door, the percentage that you were wrong from the start stays the same.

Therefore, in the case with three doors, when the number of doors drops to two, you still have a 66.7% chance of being wrong initially. And since there are only two doors left, switching your vote means you now have the same chance of success that you initially had for failure. You now have a 66.7% chance of being right.

If the problem started with two doors, yes, it is a fifty-fifty... but the addition of the third door effects the probability that you were right with your first guess...and that's what factors into the 2 door scenario. It's not about what the possibility of the prize being behind one of the two, now...it's the probability of you being right initially.

these two do the best as far as explaining it. i understand the riddle exactly. and if it happened in real life, i would switch. but being a one of the people, who were stumped, i finally realized what the problem is.

from the perspective we are looking at, its 50/50. the problem is, our perspective is WRONG! regardless of what we see in front of us now(which is only two doors) there was still 3 to begin with. you cant overlook the 3rd door since when you 1st picked a door there were 3.

-hiro

 

[anomaly]

This is pretty simple.

Just imagine it like you chose 1 of the 3 prizes and the host chose the other 2 prizes. At this point, the probability the host has the prize is 2/3, since he has 2 out of the 3 prizes. Now, no matter if the host has the car or you have the car, the host has at least 1 goat. So he shows you a goat. Since you knew he had one goat anyway, NOTHING HAS CHANGED. The probability is still 2/3 that he will win, still 2/3 for his 1 prize left.

You guys are just thinking of it as HEY TWO CHOICES, so 50/50 amirite?? But each choice isn't the same, they are both weighted (like a weighted side of a di).

If you don't get it, try an exaggerated version where you have 100000 choices to choose from. You choose yours. Now there is 99999 left. Of those left, you know there are at least 99998 goats left, possibly one more if you are right. He tells you which 99998 are goats, so there are two left, yours and the one he has which you don't know either. NOW, does it make sense :?

I'm sure this has been said about a hundred times though, but oh well

 

[Frames]

Ok so I was confused about this earlier, but it's all good, here's something that helped me reach the final conclusion.

Soo, yea, switching is better...whatever fvck this riddle i'm goin to bed.

 

[XIF]

imagine if instead of just revealing a goat, the host told you that you could stick with your choice, or you could choose the other two doors SIMULTANEOUSLY and if EITHER had a car you would win.

2 doors vs 1 door

go with 2 doors.

its the same idea. No matter what, the host will open a goat door, so in reality, he's asking you not to choose between 1 single door and another single door, but rather 1 single door and a choice of the other two, and he's already removed a faulty door.

The question should be rephrased as:

Is your initial selection wrong? yes or no.

the probability of it being no is higher than yes.

 

[derf]

frames picture is money.

man, when the IQ ***** first came out wiht this riddle, she had like 100 PhD's email her arguing it was 50/50. and then she posted some reponse like frames' picture and everyone was like "oh...my bad yo"

 

[hungrybox]

*repost*

The probability you select the correct door (before the host opens a door and asks you whether you want to change) is 1/3, because the three doors are equally likely to be the correct door. The probability this is the correct door does not change once the game show host opens one of the other doors, because he will always open a door that the prize is not behind.
The probability that you selected incorrectly is the probability the prize is behind one of the two doors you did not select. Consequently, the probability that you selected incorrectly is 2/3. If you selected incorrectly, when the game show host opens a door to show you that the prize is not behind it, the prize is behind the other door. So, by changing doors, the probability you win is 2/3. In other words, you should always change doors when given the chance to do so by the game show host. This doubles the probability that you will win.

yaaaaaaaaay

 

[hungrybox]

Go Frames!!!

 

[EternalCrusade]

The riddle was for 3 doors not 1000

of course switching would be better if the amount of goats increases but when it comes down to 3 doors like the riddle says theres no difference.Switching or staying between two doors is 50 50

The same math applies to any number of doors, whether it's 1000, 50, 12, or 3. It's just easier to see with a higher number of doors.

 

[Zoro]

Nothing to do with 1/3 or 50/50 but if this happened in real
I would stay

I think i would go with the 33%

i rather like pick the wrong one the first time than have it right and switch

that would suck

i

 

[Finch]

Nothing to do with 1/3 or 50/50 but if this happened in real
I would stay

I think i would go with the 33%

i rather like pick the wrong one the first time than have it right and switch

that would suck

i

lol

That's why you would lose the game show. They would love you.

 

[Zoro]

I would win

 

[everlasting yayuhzz]

Nothing to do with 1/3 or 50/50 but if this happened in real
I would stay

I think i would go with the 33%

i rather like pick the wrong one the first time than have it right and switch

that would suck

i

datz cuz u scurrrrddddd *****!

 

[CaptainCrunch]

Holy **** this has 64 posts. Wow. switching is better nubs.

 

[Samus_ABe]

rofl this is from the beginning of the movie 21..........

but your chances are 66.6% if you switch your choice rather than the 33.3% you would have had if you stayed. it does not come down to 50/50 in the end

 

[hungrybox]

i never seen 21!!!

 

[h1roshi]

wow, hbox thought he was going to stump everyone with this, but he got pwned. everyone knew the answer.

-hiro

 

[hungrybox]

wow, hbox thought he was going to stump everyone with this, but he got pwned. everyone knew the answer.

-hiro

stfu nub

it took like an hour or two before you actually proccessed it in your head

 

[Vilt]

You stay. The odds at you getting a car when all three doors were closed was 33%. Since the host opened one up. Your odds have actually increase to 66% because you didn't choose that door in the first place.