Yes 5 million is 1/4 of 20 million. Except FE hasn't sold 5 million (I can't find any official source on the number, but it doesn't appear on the list of video game franchises with over 5 million copies sold) , and Pokemon Red/Blue sold 23.64 million.
Number of characters in a franchise is a moot point. We're talking specifically about star power. And the starter pokemon from the most well known and successful Pokemon game Squirtle and Ivysaur aren't just "random" pokemon, they're Pokemon icons, EVERYONE knows who they are.
Would Tombi have more star power than Squirtle because he appeared in a couple games as the one and only main character? Of course not, because hardly anyone knows what Tombi is.
The fact that they aren't as popular or Iconic as other Pokemon is irrelevant. Toad is not as popular or relevant as Mario, but he's still an A-list Nintendo character, and has more star power than basically every non-Mario series' character on the game.
Your original point was that Squirtle and Ivysaur didn't have the star power to pull off their own individual slots (which is wrong within itself as they were considered 3 separate characters by the man himself in Brawl but I digress), they're more popular and well known than those other characters. It's concrete fact. So yes, that IS what this is about, star power. Squirtle and Ivysaur have it in spades.
I don't see where the evidence is that we won't get more than 2 more. We had 6 in Brawl, with 2 more planned. That's 8, why is seven so hard to comprehend now?
And by the logic that they're cut because they weren't shown with Charizard, I present you Sheik and ZSS.
And by the logic that they're cut because they weren't shown with the transformation characters, I present you Charizard.
I think we've diverged into two separate arguments that are hindering each other
things that I agree that you are saying: Squirtle and Ivysaur are well known, moreso than probably any fire emblem character.
But here's where I think our opinions differ. First of all, number of characters in a franchise is most definitely not a moot point, and I think you're over-estimating how many characters are going to hail from a single series. I think this is where our largest difference in opinions comes from.
Yes, Brawl had 6 pokemon. I don't think Smash 4 will have more than 6. I don't think any franchise in smash 4 will have more than 6. Therefore, when we have so many Pokemon with decent star power (pichu just as much as squirtle and ivysaur, seeing as pichu was in 1 smash game, like both of them, and has had a majro appearance in at least 1 movie). On top of that, we have Zoroark, the face of Geb 5 as Lucario was the face of Gen 4. We have Deoxys, a humanoid legendary from gen 3 with a lot of popularity. We have Sceptile, The grass starter from gen 3 that recently got a mega, is one of the starters of the newest pokemon game, and would round out the starter types already on the roster. We have Mewtwo, who was playable in melee, has had a recent surge in popularity, been the front of many plots in the series, and got two mega evolutions. and we have jigglypuff, who used to be a major face in the tv show, but has been in the games since mash 64.
Maybe Squirtle/Ivysaur beat out Pichu here, in terms of getting a spot. And yes, I know, many of those were already deconfimed. it was for arguments sake. But I'd argue that every other pokemon on that list would probably get into smash before the squirtle ivy combo. Ivysaur and Squirtle can't take advantage of the megas their lines of evolution got, and weren't revealed with charizard.
That's another thing. You're skewing the logic of character reveals.
Samus and Zelda were both revealed very early, way before the character transform mechanics were given away. Once those character transform mechanics were shown off, Shiek, ZSS, and Charizard were all shown, because there was nothing left to hide.
When it comes down to it, neither of us have hard proof to back up our arguments, we're just both relying on our own separate interpretations of the same data. I understand where you're coming from a little better now, but I still don't think your reasoning is correct. I, personally, would love to see ivysaur and squirtle return. I would also like to see Mewtwo back in the game, and I also don't want to see jigglypuff cut. I also don't think Pokemon deserves more than 6 reps. It's a tough situation, one that I personally is best remedied by including mewtwo and jigglypuff over squirtle and ivysaur. But I guess we'll find out in the next few months. While I (and from what I've seen, a lot of the boards) think that my hypothesis of squirtle and ivysaur being cut is most likely, I'll agree that it still is only a hypothesis, as none of us are actually Sakurai.