An example that I analysed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2MEHOxEWWo#t=48m15s
Razer vs. Ally in the Genesis 2 Crew Battle. IMO these guys probably play the matchup the best; it's a pity there aren't any more matches like this. Ally spends a lot of time, even when he is losing, camping Razer. There are multiple times where long periods of time pass where no damage is taken by either party. And this, is how I think think, the matchup is best played.
Watching the match, I took note of the respective punishes of the two parties. I calculated the damage taken before a neutral position is restored. This is documented below:
Ally
1.40%
2.13%
3.11%
4.9%
5.37%
6.12%
7.37%
- Killed Razer @ 159%
8.74%
9.13%
10.9%
11.13%
12.12%
13.20% (Grenade Trade)
14.20%
15.17%
- Killed Razer @ 179%
16.21%
17.10%
18.61%
- Killed Razer @ 92%
Razer
1.28%
2.23%
3.11%
4.14%
5.11%
6.11%
7.16% (Grabx1)
8.10%
- Killed Ally @ 136%
9.14% (Grabx2)
10.38% (Grabx1)
11.13% (Grenade Trade)
12.13% (Grenade)
13.15% (Grenade)
14.13% (Grenade)
15.13%
- Killed Ally @ 133%
16.4%
First, notice how high the damage output on some of Ally's punishes are. Once he put the pressure on at low percents, Razer ate a truckload of damage. Razer needed to generate a lot more punishes to cause the same effect, even though Wario was generally dying earlier (one could probably attribute this to Wario's ability to reset bad situations easily). If you look at the numbers, 16 punishes generated 2 stocks and 4% for Razer, but with just two more, Ally took the match. This is pretty significant. Especially considering that Razer could potentially die earlier (on the first two stocks), while Ally basically died as early as possible. If Razer did not hit with his kill moves at the right time, or if Ally hit with his earlier, this number slides even further into Wario's favour, although it could not favour Razer any more.
Second, notice how few grenades hit Ally (I did not count incedental collisions with the grenade hurtboxes). 4 times, one of which was a beneficial trade. None in the first stock. Grenades aren't especially handy.
Third, Razer netted 4 grabs total; one came from a tech chase, two of which resulted to nothing, and the other comboed into a grenade (which all could have been, shielded). Note that Ally was never grabbed at kill percent; the grab is avoidable when the player is careful enough.
Fourth, I can't properly explain why Razer lived so long on the first two stocks. Nor can I explain why Ally died so early. This video doesn't directly support my status here. But the last stock definitely highlighted that Wario can kill much earlier than Snake can.
Fifth, there was no timer, since it was a crew battle. This halted the timeout option. But given the large periods without damage, a timeout would not be out of the question if it was aimed for.
Sixth, the one FH Nair that was used got punished by a slightly charged Fsmash.
That's more or less all I have to say about the match at this time. I would be interested in performing a similar analysis of one of Gluttony's matches too, when I get the time. Although he is notoriously aggressive across all mus, which is not how the character has to be played here.
Even if you don't agree that it's Wario's favour, you have to concede that Wario can really mess Snake up, and that Wario has the required tools to get around Snake.
