On a gameshow, there a three doors. Behind one is a car, behind the other two are goats. The contestant, who doesn't know which one the car is behind, is asked by the host (Monty Hall, who knows where the car is) to chose a door. The contestant chooses a door (let's say door 1 for the sake of the example). MH then opens another door which he knows hides a goat (let's say door 3). He then gives the contestant the opportunity to stay with his original choice (1), or switch to the other remaining door (2). Which is more probable, staying or switching?
The answer provided to the puzzle was switching, despite there only being two choices. The reasoning is that because the only time you shouldn't switch is if you originally chose the car, but because there's only one car and two goats, there was a 2/3 chance you chose a goat, so it is supposedly more probable to switch.
What do you guys think? Do you think the probablity is 50/50, or do you think it is more probable to switch? I did a presentation on this, and I've got a lot more material (both for and against the switching solution) which I'll reveal as/if the debate progresses.
The answer provided to the puzzle was switching, despite there only being two choices. The reasoning is that because the only time you shouldn't switch is if you originally chose the car, but because there's only one car and two goats, there was a 2/3 chance you chose a goat, so it is supposedly more probable to switch.
What do you guys think? Do you think the probablity is 50/50, or do you think it is more probable to switch? I did a presentation on this, and I've got a lot more material (both for and against the switching solution) which I'll reveal as/if the debate progresses.