I think I will offer a little history lesson about how Fire Emblem support was like for pre-Brawl and much of the pre-Smash 4 period.
Prior to the Brawl announcement (2004-the first half of 2006), there was a really divided opinion on who the FE newcomer for Smash Bros. should be (nearly every international lord except Eliwood who was seen as redundant due to Roy already being in, had an almost even amount of support). You had various lords competing with each other for various reasons.
The Lyn and Eirika fanbases argued that their characters should be in since they were "female" and that since Smash Bros. had so few female playable characters they should be the ones to be prioritized. Lyn fans argued that she should be chosen over Eirika because she was the "first international lord" (which is really stretching the truth). Eirika fans countered this by saying Lyn was not even the true main character of her game (Eliwood and Hector were), and not only was Eirika more recent, you were also able to make her the main character throughout FE8, unlike Lyn whose lord role ended after FE7's tutorial. Lyn fans challenged this by saying Eirika's super short skirt meant she would be unfeasible due to people being able to easily look up her skirt, and would make her very inappropriate for Smash Bros. Eirika fans countered this by saying the same could apply to Lyn too (though Lyn fans said this would be harder), and that the area under Eirika's skirt could be "blacked out".
Hector enjoyed a lot of support too due to him being a very powerful unit in FE7 as well as for his brash personality. Hector fans argued that he would bring something different from Ike, Lyn, and Eirika, due to being an axe-wielder. They also argued that unlike Lyn, Hector could be argued to be the main hero of FE7 (since his campaign was basically part of the same storyline as Eliwood's, and Armads was part of the logo for FE7), and would thus be much more appropriate to be a playable character to represent that game.
Ephraim too enjoyed a lot of support due to him being a very powerful unit in FE8. Ephraim argued that he would be an even better choice than Hector because his game was more recent, and like Hector, he would be able to bring a new weapon type to Smash Bros., a lance. They argued that Ephraim should be a priority over Eirika due to this reason, as well as using the "short skirt" detraction that Lyn fans used.
Ike also enjoyed a lot of support due to him being a very powerful unit in FE9 and his personality in the game. Although he used a male sword user like Marth and Roy, they argued that he deserved a place in Smash Bros. due to being the most recent lord in the series and for his installment having been the first 3D installment in the series, the first internationally released home console FE, and the first home console FE since FE5. Most of Ike's support was driven more by people who liked him as a character (and an unit) than anything else, and it was the quality of FE9 that built his fanbase. Surprisingly, unlike Lyn and Eirika (both of whom are also sword-users), Ike fans were given a harder time due to the other fanbases saying their characters could bring "more" (whether it be boobs or a new weapon type) than Ike ever could hope.
Sigurd, despite being a Japan-only lord, also have a devoted and loud fanbase for his inclusion. Due to being yet another sword-wielding lord from a game released a decade ago, you would think they would have a harder time. They spent a lot of their time attacking Roy (and sometimes Ike), and say that Sigurd was planned for Smash 64 and Melee, and that it was originally going to be Sigurd in Melee until IS forced Sakurai to include Roy instead. They also said that Sigurd was Sakurai's favorite FE character and that he was popularly requested for Melee in Japan. His fanbase was nearly all driven by people who loved FE4 and the much darker tone and themes it had relative to nearly other game in the series.
None of these fanbases had a leg up over the other one. While there were a few people that asked for either one of Marth or Roy to be cut (to possibly make room for one of the above characters), most people wanted both characters to stay, and generally disdained the idea of cuts in general (the only two characters in which there existed a modest amount of support to cut were Pichu and Dr. Mario, with Young Link being in third place).
None of these characters really had an advantage other the other one, and it was generally very chaotic and fanboy wars were furious.
After the Brawl unveil, the dynamics to the field changed. Two statements from Sakurai's mouth would change the landscape for the FE character battlefield.
1. His statement about why he chose Zero Suit Samus:
Sakurai mentioned one of the reasons why he chose Zero Suit Samus was because of how few female characters Smash Bros. had. Every potential female newcomer fanbase misinterpreted and twisted this into meaning that if there were two characters competing for a spot, one male and one female, the female one would get in because of the lack of female characters in Smsh Bros.
2. Sakurai's announcement that there would be cuts:
This was a boon to the fanbases of Sigurd, Ike, Lyn, and Eirika, since it meant that the "would be just another sword-wielder" argument could have much less punch if either Marth or Roy (some even said both) would be removed. Among hardcore FE and Smash fans, they were inclined to have Marth be the one to stay, while more casual Smash Bros. fans wanted Roy to stay. There was also a vocal minority that wanted both gone because they were both "Japan only". The plurality though wanted both Marth and Roy to return though. Prior to this statement, there was a bitter debates about whether ANY cuts would happen (and among those that said they would that it would only be the "unpopular" clones like Pichu, Dr. Mario, and Young Link). Now that Sakurai went out and said that there definitely would be, people were even saying the likes of Ice Climbers, Jigglypuff, Mr. Game & Watch, Mewtwo, Ness, and Sheik were on the cutting block.
The FE newcomer wars become even more ferocious, as the fans of Marth and Roy now were drawn into them to support the return of the characters they loved in Melee against the supporters of the potential FE newcomers.
Note:
Sakurai's journal, in which he published the requests/statements of various Japanese FE fans in regards to characters, music, stages, gameplay ideas, and various personal stories pertaining to Smash Bros., was mistinterpreted as a "poll".
Although the Sigurd, Ike, Lyn, and Eirika fanbases saw an opening with the announcement that the spots for Marth and/or Roy could be up for grabs, the Ike and Eirika fanbases were struck hard by another announcement at E3 2006. It was the announcement of FE10.
The announcement of FE10 was as a bludgeon by the Lyn fanbase against the Ike and Eirika fanbases. As mentioned earlier, one of the arguments used by the Eirika fanbase was that she was much more likely than Lyn in part due to her being "more recent". They argued that by now, Eirika was no less relevant than Lyn was. They continued to pound on Eirika continuously, until they gradually peeled away a sizable number of her supporters towards Lyn, and the remaining fanbase became demoralized and dissipated entirely. Thus became the collapse of the first potential FE newcomer fanbase.
The Lyn fanbase tried the same efforts on the Ike fanbase. They argued that Ike was no longer the most recent lord, and that he would be upstaged in his own universe by Sothe and the silver-haired mage. They argued that Ike brought nothing to Smash Bros., and that virtually any other potential FE newcomer (except Sigurd) was a better choice overall. The Ike fanbase was becoming heavily demoralized, and some were considering jumping ship to either Hector or Ephraim. However, unlike Eirika's fanbase, Ike's fanbase survived the onslaught due to a rock that helped them whether the storm. That rock was Japanese popularity. They pointed to the results of Sakurai's "poll" (the pre-Brawl journal), that showed that Ike was the most wanted FE newcomer by the Japanese fanbase. If it were not for the misinterpretation that Ike's name coming up three or four times in that journal meant that Ike was the most wanted FE newcomer in Japan, they could very well have collapsed. The Ike fanbase also was still devoted to Ike because they loved him as a character in FE9, and how much they loved FE9 overall. Ike's fanbase also had some of the most intelligent supporters of all the FE fanbases (even I was among them). From May 2006 to around October 2006, the Ike fanbase was definitely depreciated though.
Sigurd's fanbase, like Ike's, survived due the rock of Japanese popularity (though there was much less proper standing for it unlike Ike), and due to the loudness and aggressiveness of their supporters. They continued to beat the same drums they said about Sigurd (and Roy) only much louder and with more confidence.
During this time, the Lyn fanbase launched an assault on the Hector and Ephraim fanbases too. The Hector fanbase in particular was a much tougher nut to crack, but it was definitely a higher priority for the Lyn fanbase to defeat and demoralize (since they saw Hector and Lyn competing for the same spot for representing FE7).
The assault on the Ephraim fanbase was accomplished and successful due to two primary things. The first was like with Eirika and Ike, the announcement of FE10. Ephraim's fans, like Eirika and Ike's, could no longer claim the mantra of being the more "recent" or "relevant", since it was now a game that two games behind. They also aggressively attacked the notion that Ephraim would be an unique newcomer addition for FE since they argued that Krystal (who was being increasingly seen as among the most likely female additions) could take the mantra of a lance-like moveset. Increasingly, it was seen that with Krystal and the announcement of FE10, Ephraim could not bring much. Like the fans of his sister, Ephraim's fans became demoralized and it collapsed. Some joined the fanbases of Hector and Ike.
The Hector fanbase grinned in the face of possible defeat. Unlike the fanbases of Ike, Eirika, and Ephraim, Hector's fanbase never used "recent-ness" as an argument or "most relevant". They continued to say that Hector was the only one that could bring an axe-wielder to Smash Bros., and that his level of power would clearly distinguish him among the rest of the cast, and that unlike Lyn was much more the main character of his game. They refused to back down at all.
The Lyn fanbase's aggression and ferocity was rendered the most unfettered upon the Hector fanbase, whom it saw as the primary competition for being included in Smash Bros. Their most important prong for their attack was the inclusion of Zero Suit Samus and the reason Sakurai gave for including her. They kept pounding that although Ridley was arguably much more important than a suitless form of Samus and that he was definitely far more wanted than any other Metroid character (he was among the Top 5 most wanted newcomers overall in the West prior to the unveil), that somehow ZSS got in over Ridley, and that was because Sakurai now valued, above all else, resolving the hugely imbalanced gender ratio in Smash Bros. They said that the difference in important between Hector and Lyn was far less than that of Ridley and ZSS, and the difference of popularity even smaller.
The Hector fanbase tried their best to counter this, but due to the influx of so many new fans and posters due to the Brawl unveil, and the influx of "sooooo hawwwwt" types, the Hector fanbase was like the other fanbases, standing on the precipice of defeat and demoralization. In a few months time (by the end of 2006), it was deemed that Lyn was the most likely FE7 newcomer and she had far more support than Hector did. The Hector fanbase, collapsed to a big degree, however, unlike the fanbases for Eirika and Ephraim, their still existed a much smaller Hector fanbase that still fervently supported Hector and that he would be the one to get in over the "tutorial lord".
The Lyn fanbase for the second half of 2006 (particularly the last four months of 2006), sat as the most wanted newcomer for Brawl. They argued that she, like Krystal (and later Midna when Twilight Princess was released), would be part of a new wave of female newcomers that would help close the gender-gap that Sakurai was "worried" about. They also argued she was the face of international FE, since she was the "first international lord" she was far more deserving than any other international lord and she was "the West's Marth".
At the beginning of 2007, there only existed noticeable fanbases for three potential FE newcomers. Ike, Lyn, and Sigurd were all that was left. Sigurd's fanbase was the smallest of the three, but that made up for this by how loud they were and how much they insisted Sigurd was robbed of a spot in Melee by Roy. The Ike fanbase was slowly regaining their strength due to the information that Ike was set to return in FE10.
By the end of February 2007 (the Japanese release of FE10), the Ike fanbase was rapidly regaining their strength and was ready to mount a serious assault of the notion that Lyn was the default FE newcomer for Brawl.
Like before they could claim that Ike was the most recent lord, and unlike every other lord that was being requested as newcomer, Ike was the only one to have starred in two FE games as the hero. The new appearance of Ike in FE10 also offered the Ike fanbase a new way to approach the "he was just be another male swordsmen" angle. His easily defined and discernible muscles made the Ike fanbase want to sell him as a power character, a power sword-user. The relevation that he could use axes as well in FE10 also helped create a punch in the gut to his detractors, since he was a character who could now use more than one weapon type. Although there were clearly some Ike supporters that hated Ike's FE10 design, the rest of the Ike fanbase tried to quell this by saying that even FE9 Ike could have some of FE10 Ike's properties, and that all that mattered was Ike getting in, not what he looked like.
The Lyn fanbase was startled by the much more aggressive Ike fanbase. The Ike fanbase said that Lyn was irrelevant, and that Tellius NEEDED a playable character since the last two games were based in that universe. They continued to pound that Ike being a main character in TWO games, while Lyn arguably was not even the main character in even one, was what would make Ike the FE newcomer (in addition to Ike doing very well on Sakurai's "poll).
They said that if any female FE newcomer was going to happen it would be Micaiah, due to the fact that she was more recent. They also said Micaiah, unlike Lyn, had a much better claim to being the main character of her game than Lyn, and unlike Lyn, was guaranteed to be unlike any other FE character due to being a mage. The Ike fanbase was not saying all of this because they supported Micaiah, but rather they surmised that a very large portion of Lyn's fanbase did not back Lyn because she was Lyn, but rather she was an attractive female, and that if another viable female newcomer choice were to manifest, many of them would jump ship and thus be divided. This hypothesis later turned out to be correct.
The Lyn fanbase for the first time since the Brawl announcement and Sakurai's ZSS statement, had found itself on the defensive. Like the Ike fanbase, they had a few knives and bombs of their own. It was the Sigurd fanbase (which was made up of more hardcore FE fanbases), that made the Lyn fanbase privvy to one argument to use against Ike.
The argument that Sigurd fanbase used against Ike was that there was already another lord aside from Marth who had starred in more than one game in the series yet did not get in as a playable character. That character was Leaf. The Lyn fanbase shoved this argument in the face of Ike fans.
However, Ike fans soon found a way to counter this. They argued that Ike was not an analogue to Leaf, but rather Sothe was (at this point people were unsure whether Sothe was a lord or not in FE10, and although the game had already been released, there were several people arguing that Sothe was on par with Micaiah and Ike in that game). Sothe, like Leaf, was a non-lord in the first game he appeared in, and only became a "lord" in his second game.
Lyn fans then used the same play they used to destroy the Ephraim fanbase, which was to say another more important character from another series would have the same moveset utility as that particular FE character. When Ike fans said that Ike could be a "power sword character", Lyn fans said that such a role would better fit Ganondorf (whom had a very large movement to become a completely unique character and use a sword). They argued that the power-sword character fit Ganondorf better, and that Ganondorf was a priority to get it since he was a Nintendo icon whereas Ike was not.
This argument was much more debilitating than the previous one used. There were some Ike fans that felt the same way. Some of the Ike fanbase felt that the best way to counter this was to boot Marth and/or Roy from Smash Bros. while Ike became the typical sword-user (while bringing a few unique things such as axes, Aether, and the Ragnell's shock wave). Many Ike fans (including myself) were furious about this because we wanted Marth and/or Roy to stay. Nevertheless, a significant contingent of the Ike fanbase at this point felt that either one of Marth or Roy needed to leave in order for Ike to get in.
Micaiah started to develop her own fanbase, however, the aggressive Lyn fans tried their best to harass and bully the Micaiah fanbase from growing support by saying that they were backing a character they knew nothing about and for "shallow reasons" (which would prove to be very ironic considering most of the Lyn fanbase jumped ship to Micaiah later on when she was de-confirmed, despite FE10 still not having had an international release). The Micaiah fanbase was basically a non-player in the West for much of 2007 due to the Lyn fanbase's efforts.
After the release of FE10 in Japan, another Tellius character developed a notable amount of support. This was the Black Knight. Black Knight supporters argued that he should be in due to have been in two games, and that Smash Bros. needed more villain representation. A lot of the Black Knight's supporters were also Ike supporters, and when they also happened to be Ike supporters they argued for Ike to be more well-rounded while the Black Knight to be the slow, powerful character. In terms of overall support, I would say they were a bit behind the Sigurd fanbase, and definitely behind the Ike and Lyn fanbases. Also, very few people thought the Black Knight would get in while Ike would not.
As 2007 marched on, despite little information to change the sway of the battlefield, the Ike fanbase gradually garnered more and more support (mostly due to more people having played FE9 since it went on clearance, and again due to the Ike fans seeming to be articulate and motivated by a love of the series, while the Lyn fanbase to more casual lookers seemed to suffer from the same thing that put off some people from Krystal, which was a lot of visible "perverts" making up a large portion of their fanbase, though this did not hurt Lyn as much as Krystal since much more people found furries disturbing in general).
The Ike fanbase certainly had the edge in popularity by June 2007. Lyn supporters continued to thump that she was "the first international lord", that "Sakurai wanted to corrrect the gender ratio", "look at what happened with Ridley compared to ZSS", and "lol another male swordsman".
The Ike fanbase felt confident that Japanese popularity and the international release of FE10 would mean that not only would Ike be confirmed, but that Ike would have far more support than any other potential FE newcomer before the release of Brawl.
During this time, the Roy fanbase had become heavily demoralized due the onslaught by the Lyn and Sigurd fanbases. The Marth fanbase was suffering attack from the Lyn, Sigurd, and Ike fanbases too (Ike fans attacked Marth because they were worried only one blue-haired character would end up in Smash Bros.), but managed to hold their own better since he had the support of hardcore Smash Bros. fans, knew Marth was the main hero of two games, and was the "original".
The second half of 2007 proved to be very chaotic and war-like much like it had been a year before when Brawl was unveiled. There were a bunch of profound developments that would unfold that would drastically change the landscape for the FE character representation wars.
July 2007 with more hype and interest for FE10 due to the confirmed international release proved to bring even more interest to Ike. There also began even more of a slow trickle of support to Micaiah as well. The Lyn fans continued to mock Ike as a character and that their belief that he would get in due to being the most recent lord was misguided, as it would probably be Micaiah instead, and that it would be Lyn and Micaiah possibly.
At the beginning of August 2007, the first newcomer since the unveil in May 2006 had finally been confirmed, IT WAS IKE! The Ike fans were ecstatic and after a long fought and bitter batter for nearly two years, they were finally vindicated, and for the the supporters of other male characters in competition with a female character (Wolf vs. Krystal, Toon Link vs. Midna), it meant that perhaps Sakurai would look at other qualifications for a character besides whether they had boobs or not.
The Lyn fanbase was shocked, stunned, and very, very angry. It was from then on that the Lyn fanbase sharpened their blades of war, and raised them towards Marth's fanbase. The Lyn fanbase developed a new narrative. This new narrative is that Marth (and Roy) were old news (especially Marth), and that Marth being a blue-haired swordsmen would be redundant to include since Ike was already in. They argued that Marth being the first lord was irrelevant because he was only the first lord for only one part of the world, while Lyn was the first lord for the entire world as a whole. They also argued that Lyn could take Marth's properties (being quick) and possibly even moveset. They mocked Marth and his femininty, and said if people wanted a real feminine FE character, they would back Lyn. The Sigurd fanbase too tried to get in on the Marth bashing (because they felt there was no way that three blue-haired lords would get in) and said that Sigurd and his game were more popular than Marth's in Japan. The Marth fanbase desperately tried to hold their own in the face of this onslaught and a number of Ike supporters (including myself) helped defend Marth against these statements.
In less than 1.5 months after the confirmation of Ike, the Lyn fanbase too would have a confirmation of their own, only for Lyn, it was the confirmation of being an Assist Trophy. The Lyn fanbase hollered and gnashed their teeth, and had lots of meltdowns and bitter anger and vitriol towards the developers. Some even said that it was "the worst day of their life", and that they were seriously depressed. Some Ike and Marth fans reveled in the fanboy temper tantrums that the Lyn fanbase was doing having vividly remembered their aggression and their flimsy arguments against their characters and in support of their own.
It was a week later that the hypothesis that myself (and other Ike supporters) had, would be verified. That much of Lyn's fanbase were not supporters of her as a character, but rather support of her as an attractive female. At least 2/3 of the Lyn fanbase became supporters of Micaiah in less than two weeks after the de-confirmation of Lyn.
Although it was a different ***, they still made the same ****. The Micaiah fanbase, now made up of a lot of former Lyn fans, made the same arguments they did against Marth as they did when the Lyn fanbase still existed. Only this time they additionally argued that there would only be Tellius characters in Brawl, and that Micaiah would get in on the grounds that she was the most current lord (again keep in mind a week or two earlier, these people were backing Lyn). They argued that Micaiah would be like Roy and help promote the release of FE10 in the West (with some even thinking she would be confirmed at the same time as FE10's release), or that Brawl would be released close to FE10.
One flimsy argument they used that was also new to the table, was that in the Castle Siege update, they argued that the red flags were Daein's, and thus it was a Tellius stage, which ruled out Marth. Marth fans countered this by saying the flags also looked similar to that of an enemy nation in Marth's games (they used pictures from the FE3 OVA to verify this).
The Sigurd fanbase, during all this time was being depreciated, they were not being attacked by other supporters, but for most people, if a Japan-only blue-haired swordsmen were to be in, it would be Marth. Nevertheless, the Sigurd fanbase continued to use the same arguments that he was planned since Smash 64, and that he and his game were more popular than Marth in Japan.
In October, two profound developments happened. One was the announcement of FE11, a remake of FE1 which had Marth as the lord. It was here that most Smash Bros. fans felt that Marth's return was now likely. The argument that Marth was "no longer relevant" or "Japan only" now no longer applied. Heck, Marth fans now rubbed into Micaiah fans that Marth would soon become the "most recent lord".
Most Smash Bros. fans now had Marth on their rosters.
Micaiah fans vainly tried to create doubt about the return of Marth saying that his game being made was "too late", however, such an argument fell on deaf ears. They continued to argue that she would be a far more unique addition. However, at this point more and more Micaiah fans had to shift themselves as the "third FE character" since continuing to attack Marth was making them look bad.
The other develop was the massive resurgence of the Roy fanbase. Many Roy fans started to feel that with Marth being a guarantee, that Roy could ride on his coattails and return as a clone or luigi-fied clone (basically return in Brawl with the amount of changes that Luigi had from Smash 64 to Melee). October was the time myself started to really push for Roy's return. After Brawl's unveil, I put most of my effort into supporting Ridley (who was reeling a bit from the ZSS announcement), King Dedede (who was reeling about Sakurai's statement about humbleness pertaining to including Kirby characters in Smash Bros.), Sonic (although he was the most wanted character overall, he had a lot of haters and doubters, and a lot of people hated him due to his bad recent games and scary fanbase, my presence offered a more tempered outlook to the Sonic fanbase as the lapsed Sonic fan that loved him from his Genesis days), Ike (who was one of the only two international lords that I actually liked, and absolutely needed my efforts in order for his fanbase to survive), and Olimar.
With the confirmation Sonic, King Dedede, and Ike, I now could dedicate myself to supporting Roy (I still supported Ridley a ton though).
Myself, along with several other Roy supporters, helped rebuild Roy's fanbase. LOTS of Roy supporters came from out of the woodwork, and it soon became apparent Roy had more support for the third FE character than any other character.
This really infuriated the Micaiah fanbase. They could not believe that so many people would back a clone and an "advertisement" (which is ironic considering one of the arguments they had to support Micaiah was that she would help "advertise" FE10 in the West since Brawl and FE10 were being released nearly at the same time) would get much more support than a "female" and a "non-sword-user".
They bared their fangs at the newly revived and invigorated Roy fanbase. However, by now the Roy fanbase was made up of a slew of veterans from the Ike vs. Lyn and Marth vs. Lyn/Micaiah wars, and these fellow Ike/Marth supporters knew the only way to deal with these types was to never back down and challenge them on whatever argument they used against Roy. When they said Roy would be a clone, we challenged them and said it would be easy to de-clone Roy. When they said "females", we said "yeah just like Lyn was a priority over Ike.
" When they said he was Japan-only, we said "look at Marth and Lucas, especially Lucas".
The Roy fanbase was not only challenging the arguments against him by the Micaiah fanbase, but also the long-standing arguments made against him by the Sigurd fanbase.
By now the Sigurd fanbase was weakening heavily, the confirmation of FE11 and many people believing Marth was likely to return, gave people no taste for three blue-haired swordsmen. Sigurd fans tried to beat the same drums as they had all along, however, like Lyn, they too would be de-confirmed, only this time by the hands of a fan, not Sakurai.
A Smash Bros. fan translated Sakurai's pre-Melee poll, and some of the statements that Sakurai made in his pre-Melee journal.
His findings were:
1. That the only characters planned for Smash 64 that did not get in were King Dedede, Bowser, and Mewtwo.
2. That according to the pre-Melee poll, Sigurd only received a measly two votes (the same amount as Leaf), while Celice had four, and non-lord Ogma/Oguma received eight votes. Marth by far stomped every other FE character in terms of votes.
3. Sakurai brought up who his favorite FE character was. It was Nabarl/Navarre, a mercenary from Marth's games.
The publication also of sales data from Japan that showed FE3 having sold more than FE4 (as well as FE6 being the third highest selling game in the series overall), further disproved the "Sigurd is incredibly popular in Japan" argument.
Roy and Micaiah fans paraded this information around whenever Sigurd was brought up, and this permanently ended the Sigurd fanbase. Many Smash Bros. fans were disgusted how much of Sigurd's support was based around lies.
From November to the end of January, it was pretty much Roy vs. Micaiah for the third FE spot. There did exist Black Knight support, but the Micaiah fanbase fervently made it clear that it was Micaiah who was next in line for a Tellius spot.
Myself being at the fore-front of the Brawl leaks (and even the first one to post the Brawl roster in its entirety), I had doubts about whether Roy (and Ridley especially) would in Brawl, but although I held private doubts, I continued to fight fervently for those characters. In January, when various things started to back what some of the leakers were saying, people started to doubt whether we would get any third FE character. Nevertheless, we continued to support Roy.
Both Roy and Micaiah fans shifted to a new talking point to get around the leaked roster details. While the leaker's information could very well all be true, some fans argued that the delay offered Sakurai an opportunity to implement last-minute clones. Roy fans felt that if Sakurai decided to use the delay to add clones in, that this boded well for Roy. Micaiah fans too felt that adding clones in were good for her because she could feasibly be made into a Zelda clone (while Sothe would be a Sheik clone).
However, it would turn out that the Brawl roster I posted from combining the statements of various leakers turned out to be the real deal.
The Micaiah fanbase was disappointed, as was the Roy fanbase.
Nevertheless, after the Brawl roster was confirmed to be true, I made a promise to Ridley and Roy supporters that I would continue to support those characters for Smash 4 (I was absolutely shocked Mewtwo had been cut too). I vowed that I would fight all the misconceptions that Roy was given about him throught the pre-Brawl period after Brawl's unveil.
With the discovery of the Forbidden 7 (a term coined by me), Roy fans (along with Mewtwo fans) felt much more optimistic about his return for Smash 4.
The Lyn fanbase never recovered after her de-confirmation in September 2007. After the release of Brawl, Miciaiah was still by far the most wanted female FE character for Smash Bros., and many Micaiah fans ironically treated Lyn fans the same way they been treated by the Lyn fanbase just a year earlier. The Micaiah fanbase believed she would be picked for Smash 4 due to not being a sword-user, and for being the last "new" lord.
However, after Brawl's release, it was clear that Roy was by far the most supported character for a third playable Fire Emblem character. Many of the misconceptions about Roy were disproven, and many people had no problem with semi-clones (even Melee-style clone Toon Link enjoyed a much warmed reception than his predescessor Young Link had).
Roy and Micaiah remained the only two choices with a notable level of support for a FE newcomers for Smash 4 for all of 2008. In 2009, it remained much the same. Roy had by far the most support for a FE newcomer, while Micaiah tagged along at second place. However, during the second half of 2009, Caeda/Sheeda started to develop a fanbase.
Caeda/Sheeda fans argued that she was just as important as Marth was in FE11 (or at the very least was the second most important character in the game, or a lord in everything but name). They argued she would bring a lance-wielder moveset to Smash Bros.
At around late 2009, they began to eclipse the Micaiah fanbase in support. In 2010, Caeda/Sheeda became the most wanted female FE character, although Micaiah still had some noticeable levels of support (Lyn was nearly non-existant at this point). Like 2008 and 2009, Roy was by far the most wanted FE newcomer for Smash 4 in 2010.
Caeda/Sheeda support was further buoyed by the announcement of FE12 (which was a remake of Book 2 to FE3), however, at this point there were a lot of people cynical about female FE character due to how much support bounced from character to character.
For much of 2011, there existed much of the same story as 2010 (with Roy being the most wanted FE character, with Caeda/Sheeda in a distant second). However, in September 2011, a new challenged appeared: Chrom!
For some people, being the first new lord in nearly five years, some people felt Chrom was a shoe-in from the get-go despite not displaying anything new or different.
Chrom's similarity to Ike scorned him to many casual Smash Bros. fans. Instead, there was a minority that took a liking to the only other character to get art on the teaser site, Lissa. Due to FE13's similarities to FE8 and FE2, there were people who though Lissa was going to be a lord in the game. As from Lyn to Micaiah, and Micaiah to Caeda/Sheeda, some supporters started to back Lissa, and say she had a good chance at getting in due to being the most recent lord. When more information was revealed that she was just a staff-wielder, supporters of her tried to pair her up with Chrom, in order to continue to make her a viable choice.
In 2012, Roy still had the most support for a FE character, and Caeda/Sheeda had lost a lot of her fans to Lissa, Anna (who for the first time was confirmed as a playable character in FE), Micaiah (FE13 re-design), Lyn (FE13 re-design), and later Lucina. Chrom in 2012 cemented himself as the second-most wanted FE character. However, the problem was that for many people he seemed "bland" or not "interesting". Roy was particularly helped in 2012 by his very well-received re-design in FE13.
In 2013, Roy has been the most wanted FE newcomer for Smash 4. The acclaim and praise for FE13, helped cement Chrom as the second-most wanted FE character, although skepticism about Chrom being an interesting addition still persisted. Many people who played FE13, gave their support to Anna, Lucina, and My Unit instead as the the characters to represent FE13. Lyn and Micaiah are not as wanted as Anna and Lucina, yet have a small core of supporters due in part to their FE13 re-designs helping to re-ignite some interest in them.
As can be seen, the FE newcomer battle this time, has not been as interesting (or chaotic) as what went on during pre-Brawl. As it stands, Roy and Chrom are the only two characters with a significant level of support, and among those who want a female FE character their support is divided amongst Anna, Lucina, My Unit (female), Lyn, and Miaiah, with Anna and Lucina having more support in places like GameFAQs and NeoGAF, while Lucina and Lyn have more support at SmashBoards.
Nevertheless, I hope this chronicle offers a fascinating read to those out there who want to know what it was like during pre-Brawl.
It will probably take a long while to read, but I hope that the few that do will enjoy it, or at the very least find it a bit interesting.
And also the reason why I brought that up.
It just caught my attention somehow.
