The Little Witch of Diamond City - Ashley - The Witch retreats. For now.

[Samcrumpit]

Well, this is the last time I join the speculation scene. After it was confirmed that Sakurai is using the ballot + we get a new pokemon every time, I am becoming incredibly optimistic about a certain reptile’s chances! Come on Sakurai, don’t let me down this time!

While we're talking about Pokemans, what do you think about that supposed Gardevoir leak that guessed Richter would be in?

 

[Red Dead Redeemed]

Well guys, it took me some days but I finally made my Ashley twitter account!!

https://twitter.com/AshleyForSmash

If you click on it you will realize that it's empty right now... but I will think up what avatar/banner to use and figure out what content to get, make, and share. I think I will be kinda busy this week but by the weekend I expect to have things more figured out lol. In the meantime you could follow it and/or give ideas about what to share.

This is exciting.

Well ****, I guess I'm gonna bite the bullet and make that Twitter account then.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

While we're talking about Pokemans, what do you think about that supposed Gardevoir leak that guessed Richter would be in?

I’m feeling a bit skeptical about that. If you looked at my thread for Sceptile, you’d see the point that gamefreak/the pokemon company generally want the mons they’ve heavily marketed in smash as opposed to the lesser marketed. Sceptile has been seen time and time again in the anime, as well as receiving a very relevant tcg theme deck not too long ago. Besides, that leak implied that Simon would not be in the game, yet here we are. It also says gothitelle is an echo, which sounds like complete bogus, seeing as that may actually be the least marketed pokemon there is, as well as being one of the least popular. That’s why I think the only real competition for Sceptile is Lycanroc, gen 7’s most heavily marketed mon.

 

[Teeb147]

While we're talking about Pokemans, what do you think about that supposed Gardevoir leak that guessed Richter would be in?

There's a few possible flaws, but nothing that would turn it down. Gardevoir is a popular mon, and no one else guessed at Richter. Gothitelle would just be added for the easy echo. (No one else could fit gardevoir.)
Delta wants sceptile in so he's going to go against it lol.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

There's a few possible flaws, but nothing that would turn it down. Gardevoir is a popular mon, and no one else guessed at Richter.
Delta wants sceptile in so he's going to go against it lol.

You better believe I am. The only mons I could take getting put in are Sceptile, Lycanroc, or Krookodile (who despite being not very likely at all, still ten times more popular than Gothitelle.)
Sure that leak guesses Richter, but it completely left out Simon basically saying he wouldn’t be in, and says GOTHITELLE, of all mons. That leaks has more than enough flaws to be proven fake. Something else I forgot: Gardevoir isn’t even as marketed as Sceptile, even if by a small margin. They both have their fan bases, and if you wanna know why Sceptile’s seems to have died, it’s probably because they decided to stop being vocal about it after smash 4.

 

[Cabbagehead]

Well guys, it took me some days but I finally made my Ashley twitter account!!

https://twitter.com/AshleyForSmash

If you click on it you will realize that it's empty right now... but I will think up what avatar/banner to use and figure out what content to get, make, and share. I think I will be kinda busy this week but by the weekend I expect to have things more figured out lol. In the meantime you could follow it and/or give ideas about what to share.

This is exciting.

Once I get logged back in to my Twitter account, I'll be sure to follow it.

As far as Sceptile goes, I'd be down with him being in. I'm not expecting it (sorry Delta) but if it happens, I'd be cool with it. It's hard to make me mad with a new Pokemon, haha. The only Pokemon-related character that would make me happier is an Ultra Beast, namely Necrozma or Pheromosa.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Well guys, it took me some days but I finally made my Ashley twitter account!!

https://twitter.com/AshleyForSmash

If you click on it you will realize that it's empty right now... but I will think up what avatar/banner to use and figure out what content to get, make, and share. I think I will be kinda busy this week but by the weekend I expect to have things more figured out lol. In the meantime you could follow it and/or give ideas about what to share.

This is exciting.

I followed it and I hope it does well <3

 

[Abiyahuw]

From what I understand, there is a recent One Piece game that is in the process of adding DLC characters that were assists, so it is possible.

It's tough to know how DLC will shake out this time around, though, especially if we don't get another ballot.

What is happening to the assist forms of those characters in the OP game then?

 

[StormC]

What is happening to the assist forms of those characters in the OP game then?

Can't recall, I only heard it secondhand. They might be left untouched? I'd have to look into it some more.

 

[Samcrumpit]

Okay so here's the popular propaganda list which Ashley sadly couldn't be a part of . I'm guessing that she'd be above Captain Toad if she wasn't deconfirmed. Atleast above Jibabyan for sure.

I think this only raises my hopes for Ashley as DLC, since it's very likely that a lot characters above her are getting into the base roster (Isaac, Bandana Dee, Geno, Dixie).

 

[EarlTamm]

Okay so here's the popular propaganda list which Ashley sadly couldn't be a part of . I'm guessing that she'd be above Captain Toad if she wasn't deconfirmed. Atleast above Jibabyan for sure.

I think this only raises my hopes for Ashley as DLC, since it's very likely that a lot characters above her are getting into the base roster (Isaac, Bandana Dee, Geno, Dixie).

That is based off the Smash Poll Consolidation spreadsheet. Also, this wheel exempts any character who had been truly disconfirmed(Captain Toad was kept in case of an Alfonzo situation, but I doubt it). When it came to where Ashley placed, she was just under Bomberman and just above Daisy. Here's the doc.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...pw5m-b4JHJ0_cGRKU15KYlTe1E/edit#gid=729442469

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if she was even higher than that.

If it's a current day poll then I'd say she'd have a shot at being even higher than Shantae or Paper Mario. Her fanbase has massively increased since the last Smash cycle.

Edit: Oof... Nevermind.~

I guess that's an older poll then. xD

Edit 2: I love seeing Shantae so high up. <3

 

[EarlTamm]

To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if she was even higher than that.

If it's a current day poll then I'd say she'd have a shot at being even higher than Shantae or Paper Mario. Her fanbase has massively increased since the last Smash cycle.

Edit: Oof... Nevermind.~

I guess that's an older poll then. xD

Edit 2: I love seeing Shantae so high up. <3

If I recall, its a consolidation of a ton of polls from back in the ballot days. It was not one single poll. But yeah, Ashley certainly became much more popular over time, especially since a lot of her promotion was after the ballot.

 

[Samcrumpit]

That is based off the Smash Poll Consolidation spreadsheet. Also, this wheel exempts any character who had been truly disconfirmed(Captain Toad was kept in case of an Alfonzo situation, but I doubt it). When it came to where Ashley placed, she was just under Bomberman and just above Daisy. Here's the doc.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...pw5m-b4JHJ0_cGRKU15KYlTe1E/edit#gid=729442469

I see, so if we put all the assist trophies back and assume no one on here gets added in (unlikely) then it looks like this.

1. Isaac
2. Banjo
3. Bandana
4. Shovel Knight
5. Paper Mario
6. Shantae
7. Geno
8. Krystal
9. Waluigi
10. Magalor
11. Dixie
12. Wonder Red
13. Rayman
14, Captain Toad
15. Sora
16. Custom Robo
17. Bomberman
18. Ashley

Oof. Remember that there are a few characters who have sprung up since then like Celica, Rex, Springman, and Gen 7 Pokemon. There's also characters who probably fell off in popularity like Wonder Red and Custom Robo. So after taking that into account, characters who will be delisted due to being confirmed, and Ashley's surge in popularity, Ashley jumping up to top 10 feels very possible.

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

Frankly, it's already incredible that she was at #18 back then considering she was AT'd and not as popular in the West at the time.

I wouldn't doubt her being a Top 5 pick going forward.

 

[EarlTamm]

Really, after this Smash there is gonna be a new era of Smash speculation, especially if other long requested characters Geno and Issac get in. It will almost be like a fresh start, with none of the old top picks there to take up space and speculation, as well as the next Smash likely being very different from Ultimate.

 

[Samcrumpit]

Frankly, it's already incredible that she was at #18 back then considering she was AT'd and not as popular in the West at the time.

I wouldn't doubt her being a Top 5 pick going forward.

Yeah that honestly surprised me. That was before a lot of the signs to support her cropped up like her Badge Arcade mascotting and costumes in Mario Maker and Smash.

I guess she had Game and Wario as a recent game, but that was pretty poorly recieved and didn't sell well. Now she has Gold which will definitely do better than that game both critically and sales wise.

Still, I'm hesitant to say she's top 5 when I can already think of the top 5 after release: Rex, Springman, Waluigi, Shovel Knight, and Rayman.

Really, after this Smash there is gonna be a new era of Smash speculation, especially if other long requested characters Geno and Issac get in. It will almost be like a fresh start, with none of the old top picks there to take up space and speculation, as well as the next Smash likely being very different from Ultimate.

Storm said something similar. It'll be interesting to see who Isaac, Geno, and Bandana Dee fans will flock towards next if they make it in.

 

[EarlTamm]

Storm said something similar. It'll be interesting to see who Isaac, Geno, and Bandana Dee fans will flock towards next if they make it in.

Geno is my number 1, so if he were to be confirmed that would lead to me dedicating more time to Shantae.

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

Still, I'm hesitant to say she's top 5 when I can already think of the top 5 after release: Rex, Springman, Waluigi, Shovel Knight, and Rayman.

If we're referring to DLC then maybe but if we're talking about Smash 6 then here are my thoughts:

1. Rex is likely DLC so he'd be out of the running.

2. Springman is unproven and I doubt ARMS will blow up the same way Splatoon did. Though I could be wrong.

3. Waluigi is a competitor.

4. Shovel Knight hasn't proven that he'll stand the test of time yet. He's still riding high off of his first game (even now) and his several cross-over appearances but only time will tell where the character will go and how loyal the fanbase will remain.

5. Rayman could be a competitor. Though I don't think he's as high up on people's wish list. And though it's seemingly not a factor, being a Western character could hurt him. The roster is still overwhelmingly Japanese (with the Western characters being 1st parties).

---

I think the competition is pretty weak outside of Waluigi. There's nothing suggesting her popularity won't grow as well, especially if WarioWare Switch comes out and is commercially successful. At minimum, I expect Sakurai to know about her current popularity and for this to reach Nintendo execs' ears and I expect her to continue her breakout and receive merchandising. Nintendo would be leaving money on the table by not capitalizing on her popularity.

He's already alerted them as to King K. Rool's popularity, which they were (ridiculously) unaware of.

 

[EarlTamm]

If we're referring to DLC then maybe but if we're talking about Smash 6 then here are my thoughts:

1. Rex is likely DLC so he'd be out of the running.

2. Springman is unproven and I doubt ARMS will blow up the same way Splatoon did. Though I could be wrong.

3. Waluigi is a competitor.

4. Shovel Knight hasn't proven that he'll stand the test of time yet. He's still riding high off of his first game (even now) and his several cross-over appearances but only time will tell where the character will go and how loyal the fanbase will remain.

5. Rayman could be a competitor. Though I don't think he's as high up on people's wish list. And though it's seemingly not a factor, being a Western character could hurt him. The roster is still overwhelmingly Japanese (with the Western characters being 1st parties).

---

I think the competition is pretty weak outside of Waluigi. There's nothing suggesting her popularity won't grow as well, especially if WarioWare Switch comes out and is commercially successful. At minimum, I expect Sakurai to know about her current popularity and for this to reach Nintendo execs' ears and I expect her to continue her breakout and receive merchandising. Nintendo would be leaving money on the table by not capitalizing on her popularity.

He's already alerted them as to King K. Rool's popularity, which they were (ridiculously) unaware of.

I pretty much agree with all that is said. I would be shocked if Rex was not in(It was successful and Sakurai gushed about it a lot), the Arms series future is unsure, Waluigi is the only real threat, Shovel Knight has only proven itself as a game, not a series, and Rayman's potential really lies in his future as a game series. I do think we should try to sniff out more potential power houses that could be popular in the future when it comes to speculation and votes.

 

[Samcrumpit]

If we're referring to DLC then maybe but if we're talking about Smash 6 then here are my thoughts:

1. Rex is likely DLC so he'd be out of the running.

2. Springman is unproven and I doubt ARMS will blow up the same way Splatoon did. Though I could be wrong.

3. Waluigi is a competitor.

4. Shovel Knight hasn't proven that he'll stand the test of time yet. He's still riding high off of his first game (even now) and his several cross-over appearances but only time will tell where the character will go and how loyal the fanbase will remain.

5. Rayman could be a competitor. Though I don't think he's as high up on people's wish list. And though it's seemingly not a factor, being a Western character could hurt him. The roster is still overwhelmingly Japanese (with the Western characters being 1st parties).

---

I think the competition is pretty weak outside of Waluigi. There's nothing suggesting her popularity won't grow as well, especially if WarioWare Switch comes out and is commercially successful. At minimum, I expect Sakurai to know about her current popularity and for this to reach Nintendo execs' ears and I expect her to continue her breakout and receive merchandising. Nintendo would be leaving money on the table by not capitalizing on her popularity.

He's already alerted them as to King K. Rool's popularity, which they were (ridiculously) unaware of.

My heart tells me that she's a shoo in for Smash 6. Tho I feel like that hinges on her performance on the ballot more than anything else. If she can manage to get into top 10 of the ballot for Ultimate, that would probably give Sakurai the same pause that K. Rool did.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

Can this game just get a five year DLC life-span? There’s nothing against that happening as of now and I hope it does, as a dlc span that long could get us triple the fighters that smash 4 got, which would most likely fill out the dream rosters we all had back in the day.

 

[Cabbagehead]

Can this game just get a five year DLC life-span? There’s nothing against that happening as of now and I hope it does, as a dlc span that long could get us triple the fighters that smash 4 got, which would most likely fill out the dream rosters we all had back in the day.

My thoughts exactly. If the Switch is supposed to have a decade-long lifespan, and Sakurai is already worried about the future of Smash going forward, then you might as well go all out with Ultimate.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Bear in mind, that Ashley's placement on that list is almost exclusively thanks to Japan. Her western popularity has essentially exploded since the ballot. If Japan still has their eyes on Ashley (And there's no reason to assume they don't) then newly formed Ashley base in the west is probably her best shot at getting in (Hopefully as DLC rather than Smash 6) and the biggest weapon she has in any potential Ultimate Smash Ballot

 

[Diem]

Can this game just get a five year DLC life-span? There’s nothing against that happening as of now and I hope it does, as a dlc span that long could get us triple the fighters that smash 4 got, which would most likely fill out the dream rosters we all had back in the day.

That's what a lot of people suggested when it was thought that the Switch game would just be a port like MK8 Deluxe, the idea being that Smash 4 could just serve as the platform to keep introducing new characters indefinitely, rather than release a new game and cut a bunch of favorites, which is likely what the next Smash game will be.

Smash Ultimate could easily serve as a platform to just keep adding DLC characters to for years to come. I'm sure we'll get quite a few, and they'll all be new and interesting, because 3 out of the 7 we got for Smash 4 were returning veterans. I'd be totally fine with that, but Sakurai probably wouldn't want to work on tiny pieces of the same game for so long.

 

[Gameguy1996]

Can this game just get a five year DLC life-span? There’s nothing against that happening as of now and I hope it does, as a dlc span that long could get us triple the fighters that smash 4 got, which would most likely fill out the dream rosters we all had back in the day.

I feel like the Smash For DLC would have lasted longer if the Wii U was not on it's way out. I think there will be 80 characters in the base game and knowing Sakurai I'm sure he would like to push the number to 100. At first I think DLC will focus on some Switch era characters and a few 3rd party characters like Rex, Spring Man, Edepgard, a Gen 8 Pokemon, Monster Hunter and a second Bandai Namco character. After that Sakurai might promote some popular assist trophies such as Ashley, Waluigi, Shovel Knight and Bomberman due to there being strong demand for them in the ballot.

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

On the upside, they don't have to create characters for the 3DS anymore either. They just need to create a single version of the character for the Switch. At this point as well, they have tons of characters to use as a base to build off of too.

Hopefully that means more potential for the DLC characters.

 

[Teeb147]

I feel like the Smash For DLC would have lasted longer if the Wii U was not on it's way out. I think there will be 80 characters in the base game and knowing Sakurai I'm sure he would like to push the number to 100. At first I think DLC will focus on some Switch era characters and a few 3rd party characters like Rex, Spring Man, Edepgard, a Gen 8 Pokemon, Monster Hunter and a second Bandai Namco character. After that Sakurai might promote some popular assist trophies such as Ashley, Waluigi, Shovel Knight and Bomberman due to there being strong demand for them in the ballot.

100 is high of an expectation. It still takes a while to make fighters, and they won't have everyone on smash like they do now. Not saying it's impossible, but I think it makes more sense to think 8 to 12 dlc characters over time. 100 would be amazing tho ;p

 

[Mgl]

You either get disconfirmed as an assist trophy or live long enough for you to not get any representation at all.

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

I hope they go the extra mile and include Palutena's Guidance and Snake's Codecs for the DLC characters. If I recall, they didn't do it last time because they no longer had the VAs (for Kid Icarus) on retainer. Hopefully they just call them back in and do it if they can.

 

[Mgl]

I hope they go the extra mile and include Palutena's Guidance and Snake's Codecs for the DLC characters. If I recall, they didn't do it last time because they no longer had the VAs (for Kid Icarus) on retainer. Hopefully they just call them back in and do it if they can.

Im sure they will, I mean they had alot more prep time rather than with the dlc characters

 

[EarlTamm]

I hope they go the extra mile and include Palutena's Guidance and Snake's Codecs for the DLC characters. If I recall, they didn't do it last time because they no longer had the VAs (for Kid Icarus) on retainer. Hopefully they just call them back in and do it if they can.

I would not be surprised if they redid all of them. Some of the old codec's and guidance's don't fit that much anymore, and with Sakurai being the kind of developer he is, once he starts redoing a few of them, that will eventually lead to all of them.

 

[Jazzy Jinx]

Im sure they will, I mean they had alot more prep time rather than with the dlc characters

I would not be surprised if they redid all of them. Some of the old codec's and guidance's don't fit that much anymore, and with Sakurai being the kind of developer he is, once he starts redoing a few of them, that will eventually lead to all of them.

Ah, well I am expecting the Codecs and Guidances to get updates (as well as for Sm4sh's DLC characters to receive actual ones this time). I was referring specifically to Ultimate's Codecs and Guidances for its DLC characters.

If we're going to have more DLC characters this time around (which isn't too unlikely), it would be cool if they don't miss out on their own Codecs and Guidances. (Does "Guidance" even have a plural form? I'm probably butchering this.)

 

[perfectchaos83]

DLC for Ultimate has the potential to last a really long time, and I hope it does since that gives Ashley more of a chance. I really want Nintendo to know that the Ashley fan base is dedicated to the character and that more Ashley will always be appreciated.

 

[Cabbagehead]

DLC for Ultimate has the potential to last a really long time, and I hope it does since that gives Ashley more of a chance. I really want Nintendo to know that the Ashley fan base is dedicated to the character and that more Ashley will always be appreciated.

And once we manage to get her over the Smash threshold, I'm sure her popularity will continue to take off. Maybe then we'll get that spinoff, haha.

Speaking of which, if Ashley got a spinoff game, what would you want to see? I think an updated and expanded version of Pumpkin Panic would be pretty cool, myself.

 

[AngrySun88]

There's no way that Ultimate isn't going to have DLC. They would be printing money at that point.

Sakruai would know which characters are popular or not and he could keep going down the list. So I could see Ashley as future DLC, especially if Ultimate has a long lifetime due to the Switch's success.

 

[Samcrumpit]

Ah, well I am expecting the Codecs and Guidances to get updates (as well as for Sm4sh's DLC characters to receive actual ones this time). I was referring specifically to Ultimate's Codecs and Guidances for its DLC characters.

If we're going to have more DLC characters this time around (which isn't too unlikely), it would be cool if they don't miss out on their own Codecs and Guidances. (Does "Guidance" even have a plural form? I'm probably butchering this.)

You didn't seem to flinch when I said Geno waa getting into base, Jazzy.

At this point after the Enix guess from Vergeban, are you feeling confident on his odds?

 

[FreshlyBakedCookies]

And once we manage to get her over the Smash threshold, I'm sure her popularity will continue to take off. Maybe then we'll get that spinoff, haha.

Speaking of which, if Ashley got a spinoff game, what would you want to see? I think an updated and expanded version of Pumpkin Panic would be pretty cool, myself.

Nintendo should make their own digital card game sort of like Hearthstone and have Ashley as the "host".

 

[Cabbagehead]

Nintendo should make their own digital card game sort of like Hearthstone and have Ashley as the "host".

That's a pretty interesting idea, I've got to say! It'd be new territory for Nintendo, so you know they'd feel the need to do their own spin on it, haha. I'd be curious to see how it would turn out.

 

[Mgl]

That's a pretty interesting idea, I've got to say! It'd be new territory for Nintendo, so you know they'd feel the need to do their own spin on it, haha. I'd be curious to see how it would turn out.

Close enough

Spoiler