The 2GGC: Civil War Discussion Thread

[Seagull Joe]

I was referring to Luthie by "Unknown", not you (Although that might have been an exaggeration too since Luthie had done other things recently too iirc. I know he beat Fuwa for one....)

Luhtie beat Elegant, Vash, and Tyrant a week ago at Rise 2017. Pay attention to results.

 

[MarioManTAW]

Analysis on top 32 (winners side):

Earth - Not entirely a surprise. 25th on the PGR and since Xzax upset ZeRo, the only PGR ranked player standing in his way of Winners Top 32 was dyr (37th).
CaptainZack - Definitely expected in top 32 (20th on the PGR), but Winners Side may have been a bit of a stretch. In terms of PGR players, he notably upset Kameme (11th) for the Winners Side spot.
Mr. R - At 10th on the PGR, this should surprise no one. Only PGR player in his way was Mew2King (26th).
Nietono - Similarly to Earth, a strong contender (36th on the PGR) whose odds were improved by an upset in pools (though Nietono's pool had 2 upsets). Sonido (unranked) beat Zinoto (16th) and FOW (unranked) beat Larry Lurr (5th), thus Nietono did not need to defeat any ranked players to advance to Winners Top 32.
Locus - At 45th on the PGR, another potential candidate for Top 32 who made it to Winners Side due to an upset. In his pool, Mr. E (18th) was upset by DJ Fliphop (unranked), then Locus himself upset Ally (2nd) for the Winners Side seat.
Kirihara - Only 48th on the PGR, but after his impressive victory at FPS 2 last week, he was a safe pick for Top 32. He beat ESAM (27th) 3-0 for the Winners Side spot, but after FPS 2 (in which he also defeated ESAM 3-0), it's hard to truly call this victory an upset. He also has notably not dropped a single game yet.
Dabuz - 4th on the PGR and the 2nd highest in Winners Side. Definitely expected to go far, and even more so with some of the best competition now eliminated. Since Aarvark (unranked) upset False (41st), the only PGR player in his way was MVD (47th).
Shuton - Although not ranked on the current PGR due to his first US tournament being Frostbite, he was a notable pick for top 32 due to strong showings in Japan (3rd on their PR) and at Frostbite (5th place). He notably upset Salem (13th) with a 3-0 victory. Like Kirihara, he has also not dropped a game.
T - Like Shuton, not currently ranked on the PGR due to not coming to US until Frostbite (16th on Japan PR). Similarly to Earth and Nietono, upsets in pools likely improved his chances. Meteor (unranked) beat MkLeo (8th), and due to 6WX (31st) being upset by Felix (unranked), T fought NAKAT (unranked) for the spot in Winners Top 32, securing the spot without defeating a ranked player (like Nietono).
Tsu - Again, like Shuton and T, he did not come to the US until Frostbite and is thus currently unranked, but is 13th on the Japanese PR. After his strong showing at Frostbite, though, he was a popular pick for Top 32. Standing in his way were falln (33rd) and Nicko (unranked), who had just upset ANTi (9th).
HIKARU - With this only his 2nd showing in the US, after a 33rd place defeat at EVO 2016, he was not only absent from the PGR, but was also an unlikely candidate for top 32 (although he is 10th on Japan's PR). After Konga (unranked) upset Ned (50th) in pools, the only ranked player in his way was VoiD (6th), whom he upset 3-1 (worth noting that VoiD did not use his main, instead opting to use Fox, who is considered to have a better matchup against Donkey Kong).
Abadango - Highest ranked Japanese player on the PGR (7th), so was expected to do well. What was unexpected was the lack of PGR matches in his pool. He had been predicted to face off against Wrath (43rd) and Pugwest (39th), but both were upset by unranked players (Wrath by Zion and Pugwest by Elegant). Thus, Abadango instead faced AC (who defeated Zion) and Elegant, defeating them both and making it to top 32 without any victories over PGR players.
Nairo - 3rd on the PGR, so naturally expected to do well, but with ZeRo (1st) and MkLeo (8th, 3rd with X-Factor) eliminated and Ally (2nd) in Losers, he is a strong contender to win the tournament. Like Abadango, upsets prevented Nairo from ever meeting the expected PGR opponents. saj (40th) was upset by Shaky (unranked) and Rich Brown (23rd) by TonySherbert (unranked), thus Nairo fought Shaky and Javi (who defeated TonySherbert and is also unranked) in their places. Like Kirihara and Shuton, he has not dropped a game.
Ranai - 14th on the PGR, and despite occasional bracket setbacks, typically expected to do well. He notably had one of the least stacked pools, with the only other ranked player being Marss (15th), whom he defeated 3-0 for the spot in Winners Top 32. Like Kirihara, Shuton, and Nairo, he has not dropped a game.
komorikiri - 12th on the PGR and an almost guaranteed pick for Top 32. As expected, he defeated Pink Fresh (24th) in pools, but due to Lycan (unranked) upsetting both Samsora (29th) and Dath (32nd), komorikiri and Lycan would face off for the Top 32 Winners Side spot. komorikiri won 3-0, becoming the 5th player to enter Top 32 with no game losses.
Fatality - Perhaps unlikely, but not surprising, due to his 28th PGR placement. His bracket also had several major upsets. Kome (unranked) defeated Ryo (46tth) and Tweek (17th), thus Fatality would face off against Kome after defeating Trela (42nd) and ended up winning 3-2.

 

[ARISTOS]

Samsora 3-2 ANTi

I think it's very unlikely that ANTi goes Mario this set

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

MKLeo is yet again proving how such an inconsistent player he is. Now now I know Civil War is already infamous for it's upsets... but getting... what did he get... top 96? Nothing to be proud of. You can all continue preaching that he's a top 3 player over either Zero Nairo or Ally, but he's super inconsistent. Time will tell until we really know how good he is.

"Oh well he won two majors in a row..." But is second place any more than just one set away from first? Aren't we giving Tsu just as much credit after Frostbite than we're giving ZeRo? Point is that consistency is valued more highly than placing one spot higher. MKleo made huge waves and caught everyone's attention and I feel that a lot of people are simplly reluctant to see him for what he is: inconsistent and arguably top 5.

Maybe after he overcomes his Ryu problem; maybe then he'll beat Trela in Texas and not get upset by wait-who-the-hell-is-this in Civil War.

This is not a good tournament to try and judge consistency with. Smash 4 is known for its upsets and this is the most stacked Smash 4 tournament that has ever existed. Making it out of pools was an achievement for the majority of the community. Reminder that Ally is in losers top 32 and ZeRo is out entirely. Is ZeRo not still the best in the world? Of course he is! It's one tournament with such a low placing, hardly a trend.

 

[Ark of Silence101]

This is not a good tournament to try and judge consistency with. Smash 4 is known for its upsets and this is the most stacked Smash 4 tournament that has ever existed. Making it out of pools was an achievement for the majority of the community. Reminder that Ally is in losers top 32 and ZeRo is out entirely. Is ZeRo not still the best in the world? Of course he is! It's one tournament with such a low placing, hardly a trend.

Which I agree. Btw, little reminder that Fuwa and False drowned in pools, Pugwest and MKLeo out at 65th and Mr. E, who is clinging onto losers bracket, has been using more this time around, let that sink in for a moment, this tournament has not been kind to .

 

[ShadowGuy1]

I would like to note an upset that we seemed to missed in pools

Skorpio2-1 Tyrant and knocked him out before top 96

 

[Das Koopa]

Also, stop johning for other players. Having an off day doesn't mean ****. You choose to enter. Accept the ramifications of your choice. Every player that has beaten Zero has done it because they outplayed him that set.

I mean, it does. To the players, to their fans, and to their opponents. They did choose to enter, but we can agree that players have to have off days sometimes because they're human. The point is that it doesn't really represent their overall tournament record. You don't look at ZeRo's 49th and say "That's representative of his general record." He's never placed that low in any Smash game.

When he loses to two players well below his skill level - who both go on to place 33rd - you can extrapolate that he wasn't playing his best. The fact that he got outplayed by people well below his level is the point: It shouldn't happening, and if it is, the player obviously has something wrong going on when you compare it to an otherwise clean tournament record. Tournament nerves? Mentality issues? Illness? Etc. The game's skill ceiling isn't so low that this happens to this extent based on a couple of bad decisions in gameplay.

Calling anything that might be an issue for a player "johns" is a pretty bad mentality that I don't see most other E-sports communities apply so liberally. You can to accept and recognize that players might have off days without blaming every one of their losses on that. I wouldn't have called ZeRo's losses to Kirihara, tsu, Ally, etc. "off days" because those are losses to players with solid international results.

This isn't about making excuses, which the issue with real "johns", it's about explaining an otherwise baffling tournament performance from the most consistent player in the world. That's something Pierce is certainly going to be doing/has done already over this issue.

This is basically about how people interpret results/gameplay/etc. People sometimes use entire tournaments to simply say X player is overrated, when sometimes a player has a bad tourney that doesn't represent their typical performances. This is also a terrible mentality, and the point of saying "X player had an off day" is just to point out that you shouldn't expect those poor performances to be the norm.

 

[Das Koopa]

Larry Lurr 3-1 Mr. E

 

[OverTime]

Why's Mr. E going so much Lucina?

He's using her against Larry too.

 

[TDK]

Larry 3-1 Mr. E

 

[ShadowGuy1]

Larry 3-1 Mr.E(WasRecorded)

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Thus ends Marth/Lucina at Civil War. This had been the poorest showing for Marth / Lucina in a while

Well unless Komo and Nario decide to use thier Marth and Lucina respectively

 

[TDK]

https://clips.twitch.tv/LitigiousCarelessWeaselNotATK

Dark Pit does something for once: Part 3!

 

[Ziodyne 21]

https://clips.twitch.tv/LitigiousCarelessWeaselNotATK

Dark Pit does something for once: Part 3!

 

[TDK]

Captain Zack 3-1 Earth

Rage Electroshock Arm is actually crazy.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Captain Zack 3-1 Earth

Rage Electroshock Arm is actually crazy.

Is that the reason we have seen both Earth and Kameme use over in the MU?

Because I cannot really see how Dark pit would have the edge otherwise

Either way Bayo at this weeks WNF and Civil War has been doing what she does in her own game. Taking down angels with style, lol

 

[TDK]

Is that the reason we have seen both Earth and Kameme use over in the MU?

Because I cannot really see how Dark pit would have the edge otherwise

Either way Bayo at this weeks WNF and Civil War has been doing what she does in her own game. Taking down angels with style, lol

Side-B is the only reason to use Dark Pit in any matchup ever.

Marss 3-2 Tweek

 

[Ziodyne 21]

So does that mean Komo is now the only main left?


Wow..this tournament is a breath of fresh air

 

[NotLiquid]

That set was a testament to Mr R's inability to do anything beyond winning neutral

 

[TDK]

Mr. Infinite Neutral 3-2 Nietono

 

[JB333]

Mr. R 3-2 > Nietono

These sets...

Kirahara 3-0 Locus

That was nasty, Kirahara's edgeguarding is unreal... he has a good chance to win Civil War.

 

[Das Koopa]

Mr. R vs. Nietono was way closer than I ever could've imagined

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Kirahara reks Locus 3-0


Locus is a great player . But man that MU seems almost impossible against a really good Rosa. Kirahara made it look like the new Ness MU .

 

[TDK]

Falln 3-1 Shope

 

[Heracr055]

Kirahara destroys Locus 3-0


Locus is a great player . But man that MU seems almost impossible for Ryu , Kirihara made it look like the new Ness MU .

Absolutely a difficult MU for Ryu. I was very impressed how he dealt with Luma, but it clearly wasn't enough when Rosalina can hit you in the process. Kirahara also had excellent edgeguards for Tatsumaki

 

[Wintermelon43]

T 3-1 Tsu

Link confirmed top 12 in one of the biggest smash tournaments.

 

[TDK]

T 3-1 Tsu-

Yes!

 

[|RK|]

T 3-1 Tsu

Link confirmed top 12 in one of the biggest smash tournaments.

Haha, T got his runback!

 

[HoSmash4]

Is that the reason we have seen both Earth and Kameme use over in the MU?

Because I cannot really see how Dark pit would have the edge otherwise

Either way Bayo at this weeks WNF and Civil War has been doing what she does in her own game. Taking down angels with style, lol

Side b Bayo landing lag

 

[MarioManTAW]

all over this top 32! Kirihara, Dabuz, falln in top 32, and Abadango pulling out his pocket vs HIKARU, I think if there was ever any doubt if was still relevant, this just banishes the doubt.

 

[MarioManTAW]

9B 3-1 > FOW

 

[TDK]

DK would be bottom 5 if it wasn't for the Ding Dong

 

[MarioManTAW]

Dabuz 3-0 > Shuton

 

[HiNiTe]

Rosalina still as much of a threat as ever guys

 

[Yonder]

DK would be bottom 5 if it wasn't for the Ding Dong

That "Bair", is a really bold statement.

Rosa is just one of the biggest lower tier invalidators on the roster.

 

[Lord Dio]

The last of the ness players it out.
wonder how trela's gonna fare against ac.

 

[TDK]

Random observation: Rosa has only dropped 1 game in four sets this top 32

 

[MarioManTAW]

Abadango 3-0 > HIKARU

 

[TDK]

https://clips.twitch.tv/AmericanCuteDunlinBCWarrior

um...

 

[MarioManTAW]

LET's GO RANAI! Takes the first game vs Nairo including a 53% shieldbreak punish. Wow.