Social Swamp's Social Thread 3 - And now, the end is near, and so I face the final curtain...

[Rosalinatehplumber]

- I knew Mewtwo would return in Smash 4 thanks to the fact him and Charizard were the only two Pokemon to receive Mega Evolutions, and Mewtwo just had another movie at the time. I honestly thought Mewtwo was going to be revealed during that April 8, 2014 Direct, but boy was I wrong. And it was thanks to the surprise that it was the first time I got hyped for a newcomer. That aside, I still had a feeling that something special with Mewtwo considering all that he had going for him (there was even that statement back in 2013 when Sakurai spoke during an X/Y E3 conference saying that he was thinking about bringing back Mewtwo), and before long, we returned!

The Sakurai statement makes a lot of sense since the roster was finalized in 2012 and the fact that Mewtwo was the first DLC character and the choice to get him for free or paid.

 

[Luigi The President]

Hold up a sec.

http://smashboards.com/threads/nintenzones-nintendo-direct-hosting-party.423166/page-7#post-20435545

BUSTED BOYS

 

[LIQUID12A]

Eh, I joined very late in pre-release speculah, so nothing there. Though DLC-wise...

I cynically stood by the possibility of Wolf not making it in an environment that mostly treated him with questionably high optimism in regards to chances of making it, and over time went on to predict that he wouldn't make it. I was right. Morbid prediction to make and revel in, but it happened.

Hold up a sec.

http://smashboards.com/threads/nintenzones-nintendo-direct-hosting-party.423166/page-7#post-20435545

The irony.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I predicted Wii Fit trainer, Robin, Duck Hunt Dog, Cloud, and Bayonetta

 

[Z25]

*Turns on the Tv

First thing that comes on,

a Rick Roll....

Damn it Tv, it's just like South Park Predicted.

I'm honestly surprised this just happened.

 

[ChikoLad]

The first few of my predictions you won't find any evidence of on Smasboards or anywhere really. I didn't join until after Rosalina was confirmed. It was all just what I thought to myself or talked about IRL.

 

[Deleted member]

From what I remember, the predictions I got right were and maybe . I didn't expect prior to his reveal due to his third party status (at least is the mascot of the co-developer of Smash 4).

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I got my Geno in Smash

I predicted that

Sorta

Not really

 

[DoodleDuck97]

I predicted:

But to be quite Honest.
I am quite happy with all the newcomers and it gave me part of my childhood too.

 

[PushDustIn]

I said Cloud was the most likely FF character. So...do I get an Internet cookie?

I wasn't very active pre-release speculation so I can't claim to have predicted anything before they were revealed.

I did think Black Pit was a boss on Palutena's Temple though. That was actually my first posts on SmashBoards since 2007.

I did predict, and told you guys that we wouldn't get a lot of DLC. I also correctly stated that Wolf wasn't a shoo-in, and not coming back...against all odds.

Also, my Ultimate Smash Poll ended the day before Smash DLC was announced. I'm essentially a prophet. It's confirmed guys.

 

[FalKoopa]

Hold up a sec.

http://smashboards.com/threads/nintenzones-nintendo-direct-hosting-party.423166/page-7#post-20435545

lol.

-----------------------------------------------

I predicted one of and (I knew a Mario character was going to be in, just not sure who), (Who didn't?), ,, ,.

I had on my roster before revealed.

 

[Champ Gold]

Things I was right about:

• & being in the game
  
• DLC was happening and wasn't the sole fighter.
• would all come back
  
• Chorus Kids weren't gonna be in the game
• Shovel Knight wasn't gonna be in the game
• If got in she would be a Marth clone
• Tower of Smash was fake (my proudest moment)
• Rayman was fake (that was easy due to Mewtwo and no gameplay footage)
• wouldn't be back

Things I was wrong about

• ESRB leak
• would be DLC
  
• 3DS stages on Wii U
• A DK rep
• was the last third party character.
  
• Would be in the game
  
• Takamaru and/or Mach Rider as the retro reps
• A new Zelda character
• couldn't get in due to risqué character (something I'm proud of being wrong)

However there was this: was a straight up pipedream especially during the worst of the Gemastu hype to where I thought we could never have him in the game.....Well Sakurai had the same thought process I did as well

 

[Burb]

I actually can't find Corrin on any of his prediction lists, either.

Just support and a prediction that he'd be in SSB5. Supporting and predicting are not the same thing.

 

[PushDustIn]

I actually can't find Corrin on any of his prediction lists, either.

Just support and a prediction that he'd be in SSB5. Supporting and predicting are not the same thing.

Guess @Fumi Got SSB4 DLC Right! needs to change his name.

 

[Rosalinatehplumber]

I did predict, and told you guys that we wouldn't get a lot of DLC. I also correctly stated that Wolf wasn't a shoo-in, and not coming back...against all odds.

I knew we weren't getting a lot of DLC, people were way too optimistic about that. Sadly, I was wrong about Wolf I thought he was still likely, but it does make sense why he's not in. Oh well. I could always go back to brawl or use my custom Wolf Mii. If it weren't for the translations that PushDustIn did and the files the hackers found, I would've been really confused.

 

[Opossum]

Who I predicted?
and 's return.

Who I thought could happen, but didn't fully predict since there was more than one option?
(I thought it was possible but thought Chrom would get first pick), (I thought he was in the retro running), (I thought she stood an outside shot, but behind Toad and Junior).

Who blindsided me?
(Sakurai's statement pre-Brawl, man...), (Enough said), ("Brawl+Mewtwo"), and (still feels bad, man...), and 's return (thought they'd be alts at best), and all four DLC newcomers for varying reasons (too much FE, not enough Nintendo relation, already have Mega Man, not iconic).


Who I predicted that DIDN'T get in?
K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom. Add in Inkling for DLC. Sure there were others like Goroh and Starfy, but I wasn't nearly as confident in them.


Over all, fully predicted eight newcomers/returning Melee vets (ten if Miis are counted for three), and thought three more stood decent odds but didn't put too much stock in them. I ended up missing seven from the base game entirely (three of which being the last-minute clones) and four more or the DLC, and got three prediction outright wrong, plus my DLC prediction.


Over all, not too bad.

 

[Burb]

I did predict, and told you guys that we wouldn't get a lot of DLC. I also correctly stated that Wolf wasn't a shoo-in, and not coming back...against all odds.

I guessed all of that, too.

In fact, I'm pretty sure I was actually the first person here who mentioned that the New Content Approaching stream felt like it was closing the book on veterans.

 

[PushDustIn]

I guessed all of that, too.

In fact, I'm pretty sure I was actually the first person here who mentioned that the New Content Approaching stream felt like it was closing the book on veterans.

I think you were!

 

[FalKoopa]

I actually can't find Corrin on any of his prediction lists, either.

Just support and a prediction that he'd be in SSB5. Supporting and predicting are not the same thing.

Well, his title reads "I thought these two were possible Smash newcomers!"

Then again, I don't remember him dismissing the chances of any character at all.

 

[Oasis Dealer]

Considering I didn't know of the Gematsu rumor until around March, my predictions were a bit different (As time went on my list was influenced by Gematsu). Even so, here were characters I predicted and got right based on what I thought and also hearing from other people.



Rosalina was one I didn't really expect, though I thought she had a good chance to appear (My reaction to learning she got in was being surprised a character was announced, then thinking she was a cool choice ). Shulk was another character I had no idea about, though I thought he was a character who could make it in due to seeing him on multiple want lists.

Other than that, my expectations were off. Never expected Greninja, but thought he would have been a cool choice. Bowser Jr. Seemed less likely to me due to Rosalina. Villager never had crossed my mind as a fighter. Never predicted Wii Fit Trainer (What a surprise). Didn't know much about Fire Emblem, so I just rode the Chrom bandwagon. Didn't like the idea of miis, so I just wasn't expecting them (I do like how they turned out however). Wanted Takamaru then Mach Rider after his deconfirmation, so Duck Hunt was not a character I expected. Then there's DLC, which was just a wild ride I don't want to discuss lol.

I feel like next game my guesses will be more spot on due to the events of this games speculation (Plus I'll be more involved in it). Speculation is in a love-hate relationship with me. I love discussing what could get in the game and also seeing if my expectations are met, yet I also hate the heated arguments and insults that will be thrown at people (Ignorance or just unneeded hatred over a video game).

 

[Chrono.]

Oh yeah, I always will and still stand by Snake being a one-time favor. I never thought he was coming back (even more so with the Ballot since it came in the advent of #****onami.)

On the flip side, I thought Roy was an "out there" choice and look how that one turned out.

 

[Gunla]

I honestly only really remember making some serious predictions about WFT, Villager and Mewtwo (the first two being before I was even on the site), but the rest is a bit of a blur; probably guessed a few of them, but it doesn't really matter to me at this point. I was really supportive of the Gematsu and ESRB leaks, however.

Regardless, we've gotten a ton of surprises this time around and I am very happy with all of it; Greninja and Mii Brawler feel like characters that suit me best.

 

[Coricus]

Anyone remember when Agnus was the Kid Icarus shoo-in?

Yes. I enjoyed the sight of him being an Assist instead of playable a little TOO much, methinks.

Also it's Magnus, unless that was a typo in which case carry on.

 

[Rosalinatehplumber]

I guessed all of that, too.

In fact, I'm pretty sure I was actually the first person here who mentioned that the New Content Approaching stream felt like it was closing the book on veterans.

I thought all that didn't mean anything, but I guess it did since Mewtwo is listed as a newcomer and Lucas and Roy are the only veterans as DLC. It makes sense at least because I guess Sakurai didn't want to have a lot of cut fighters as DLC.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I didn't make a prediction list

At most there were just a couple people I expected to be in

Although I usually gave conditions

Such as believing Greninja would be in, IF they added a gen 6 rep

And I really didn't think they'd add Zozoark

 

[Chrono.]

Anyone remember when Agnus was the Kid Icarus shoo-in?

Yes. I enjoyed the sight of him being an Assist instead of playable a little TOO much, methinks.

Also it's Magnus, unless that was a typo in which case carry on.

This was seriously a thing? How?

He's not even a major character, he's even more of a side character than Dark Pit.

 

[LIQUID12A]

Apart from Wolf's chances being questionable I gave up on predictions after both the KKR Mii and Cloud.

The KKR Mii because, logically, costumes could be seen as a death sentence(even when taking the potential ambiguity of them into question, which I stood by during this time); the fact that it happened midway through the ballot and to the supposed ballot superstar(look how that turned out) didn't help, and after Cloud? It was almost anybody's ballgame(amongst realizable characters, but that's highly ambiguous).

Going by the dangers of online polling? We didn't even get anyone(that wasn't completely impossible due to being an NPC; costumes were still ambiguous at the time) from the top 26 of the ICP.

Really goes to show how people with predictions and expectations can be screwed over without being careful.

 

[Opossum]

His prediction list also included every single remaining cut veteran (literally all of them barring Ice Climbers), Professor Layton, Frogger, and quite a few more I'm forgetting off the top of my head.

When you predict a ridiculous amount of characters at the same time, you're bound to get some right. When you put it all into perspective (namely, the amount of characters on his prediction list vs the amount he got right, and the amount most people put on theirs vs the amount they got right), it's really not impressive at all.

EDIT: Looking through his posts, the following were all predicted by him at one point or another....

- Bayonetta
- Corrin
- Young Link
- Pichu
- Wolf
- Snake
- Ivysaur
- Squirtle
- Layton
- Frogger
- Shantae
- Shovel Knight
- Rayman
- Dixie Kong
- Chorus Kids

Sources: 1, 2

There were a couple more I remember, as well, from the pre-DLC days.

Sheriff, Prince of Sable, Doctor Kawashima, Nintendog (funny how all of these became Assists though), a Hanafuda box with arms and legs named Mr. Hanafuda, and at one point, Goku.



But no joke though, I'd actually love it if Frogger were playable. It's just such an iconic and fun arcade game. Too bad it's owned by Konami of all companies though. :/

 

[Coricus]

This was seriously a thing? How?

He's not even a major character, he's even more of a side character than Dark Pit.

Because fandom.

There were Tharja and Owain FE bandwagons, too.

 

[Burb]

This was seriously a thing? How?

He's not even a major character, he's even more of a side character than Dark Pit.

Most people were certain Dark Pit would be a palette swap or a stage boss on Palutena's Temple (after the Palutena trailer). Which is funny in hindsight, because so many people took Ridley's stage boss announcement as a tease that he's playable, and took the tease of Dark Pit being playable as a stage boss announcement.

Dunno why Magnus was viewed as a front-runner, but still, that would be the reason why Dark Pit was viewed as a no-hoper.

 

[Champ Gold]

I believe the one thing no one could even predict was 8-Player Smash because it was something that I don't think crossed ANYONE'S MIND and it was the greatest feature for Smash Wii U.



And funny thing about it was that we should have seen this coming when was in the game.


Plus like I said, debunking Tower of Smash has been my best accomplishment for Smash speculation due to the sole fact it showed me how desperate Smash fans were so hard. Which why crap like this exist http://youtu.be/CmsoJe6lQyc

 

[Opossum]

This was seriously a thing? How?

He's not even a major character, he's even more of a side character than Dark Pit.

I was there when it was prevalent, but...


...it was before Uprising came out and everyone thought we'd just get a Kid Icarus newcomer in general. Support was divided between Medusa, Magnus, and Palutena, generally with the Magnus supporters thinking he'd get Ike's moveset after the latter gets "inevitably cut" for the new Fire Emblem protagonist (I don't think we knew Chrom at that point?). After the game came out nearly all support went to Palutena though, for understandable reasons.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

This was seriously a thing? How?

He's not even a major character, he's even more of a side character than Dark Pit.

Well, you don't play as Dark Pit, in story mode

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Predictions:Dixie,and Ridley

These were my ultimate safe bets.Robin because i wouldn't to be the opposite of everyone and not support chrom.Little mac because boxing ring stage.Mii because custom characters.Palutena because uprising happened and sakurai was making smash.Pacman because namco was working on the game.Dixie because of tropical freeze.Ridley because he was my bias pick.

didn't not predict:

6 out of 17 aint so bad

 

[Opossum]

Well, you don't play as Dark Pit, in story mode

Spoiler

Isn't there one or two chapters toward the end where you do? Like, when Pit's unconscious or something?

 

[Shroob]

I honestly though Dark Pit WAS playable after the video, but kept getting hit with "IF HE WAS PLAYABLE, HE'D HAVE A PAGE LIKE LUCINA!" people.

 

[Substitution]

Spoiler

Isn't there one or two chapters toward the end where you do? Like, when Pit's unconscious or something?

Spoiler

There is one chapter where that happens.

 

[Champ Gold]

Well, you don't play as Dark Pit, in story mode

But...You can play as Pitto in Story Mode.


It's right after

Spoiler

Pit Sacrifices himself for Palutena

 

[Coricus]

I was there when it was prevalent, but...


...it was before Uprising came out and everyone thought we'd just get a Kid Icarus newcomer in general. Support was divided between Medusa, Magnus, and Palutena, generally with the Magnus supporters thinking he'd get Ike's moveset after the latter gets "inevitably cut" for the new Fire Emblem protagonist (I don't think we knew Chrom at that point?). After the game came out nearly all support went to Palutena though, for understandable reasons.

I remember people tossing around the names of every female in that game and Magnus still being brought up a lot, though, so at least in some circles it kept up.

IMO E3 2013 is what killed support for every non-Palutena character, not KI:U's release.

 

[Burb]

Well, you don't play as Dark Pit, in story mode

You actually do.

And unlike Magnus, you play as the genuine article, not Pit possessing him.