I don't think Ken will win. Heck I don't even think it's possible at this point. I think Marcus is the mostly likely to win with Corinne or Bob being a sort of Dark Horse.
Why Ken won't win:
Ken's alliance will be screwed at the merge regardless of pre-merge immunity challenges.
-Assume immunity will be go 50-50 until the merge.
New tribe make-up:
OldFang: Ken, Crystal, Kelly, GC, and Matty
OldKota: Marcus, Charlie, Corrinne, Bob, and Randy.
A game of chicken happens:
Matty is the most likely to flip to old Kota, considering his pre-swap alliance.
OldKota less likely to back down due to the strength of Marcus' leadership and his alliance with Charlie/Corrine.
-Assume Fang wins all of immunity challenges.
OldFang: Ken, Crystal, Kelly, GC, Matty, Ace, and Sugar
OldKota: Marcus, Charlie, and Corrinne
Ace and Sugar swap back to OldKota (he hates Kelly) and another game of Chicken happens. But OldKota now has the hidden immunity idol. Again OldKota wins.
-Assume Kota wins all immunity challenges:
OldFang: Ken, Crystal, and GC
OldKota: Marcus, Charlie, Corrinne, Bob, Randy, Suze, and Dan.
Ken is flat out screwed. Marcus wins again.
The other two cases result in similar situations (ken gets screwed).
Ken pretty much has it set till the merge, but after that he needs to pull a coup on Marcus. Given what Manacloud has said, I'm pretty sure that won't happen.
That being said:
I hope Sugar stays around for awhile and that Randy makes a ruckus over at nuKota.