1: No one's denying that Ice Climbers were coming back, that much was a given.
2: Konami has been on a bit of a stink for, well the longest time now. Between firing Kojima, leaving the Metal Gear franchise with......survive....... and making Castlevania into Pachinkoslots, the company has basically been anything but gamer friendly. Snake is a gaming icon, but here's the thing, we know Kojima wanted Snake in Smash4(At least, I believe that interview is still touted as true), but Sakurai didn't, most likely due to the legal mumbo jumbo it would entail.
Now does that mean Snake was 'impossible'? No, absolutely not, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me if Snake went through a lot of red tape, especially since his series icon changed from the foxhound logo to the !
3: The biggest problem with Ridley by and large has been his size. Sakurai even says now that he 'made it work' this time, but I don't think you were here when people saw new Ridley. Some people legit thought he looked TOO SMALL.
Of course, Ridley is a HUGE star and deserved to get in Smash, and every fake leak throws in Ridley because 'hurr durr Ridley', so while I can't confirm or deny it helps the leak, his size has always been an issue.
4: No, Simon wasn't 'a given'. People were already SUPER sketchy on Snake even coming back, and if Snake couldn't be in, then Simon obviously wasn't going to get in either. The only reason people started touting Simon en-masse was due to Verg.
And no, Verg had only 'heard' from a person that "No DK", he didn't stand by that claim since said person got that information from a random 4chan leak.
Besides, at the end of the day, Verg has only promised 2 characters who have yet to be shown, Isabelle from Animal Crossing, and a Gen 7 mon' that's not Decidueye, Mimikyu or Lycanroc.
Mimikyu got knocked out of the race today, so that's 1/3, and I think a new Pokemon character is almost a given to be frank.
I'm not saying Verg is right but, he only has 2 characters left anyway, so whether he's right or he's wrong, it doesn't 'really' matter when he doesn't even have that much info to give anyway.