I kind of hope people stop taking Vergeben so seriously after this direct. To me most of his "leaks" just seem like simple guesses and common sense. It's amazing how quickly people came to worship him after just a few things right.
My point:
1. You were an idiot if you didn't think ice climbers were coming back. It was so obvious.
2. Snake is a fan favorite character who brings a lot of people into the smash community and makes a ton of money for Nintendo. Not to mention he's a gigantic gaming icon. It definitely would be harder to predict snake but I think it's safe to say Sakurai would have done anything to get snake back in smash.
3. Ridley is one of the most consistently requested characters to date and has an overwhelming amount of support. I know Sakurai said he wouldn't work in smash but along with inkling he was still by far the most obvious choice for a new character. And Sakurai obviously knew that.
4. Simon Belmont was a given. Come on, everyone I know who plays smash was predicting Simon long before the Vergeben leak. There aren't many other characters with moveset potential and Nintendo history quite like Simon Belmont.
Please let me know why I'm wrong because I would honestly love to be able to believe Vergeben's leaks. But to me it just seems like he's making the easiest and most obvious guesses and constantly playing it safe. Also I didn't want to include this because I'm not sure if its true, so correct me if I'm wrong, But I heard Vergeben said something about there being no DK characters in the base roster. If that's true then he's definitely lost some credibility after that direct.
1: No one's denying that Ice Climbers were coming back, that much was a given.
2: Konami has been on a bit of a stink for, well the longest time now. Between firing Kojima, leaving the Metal Gear franchise with......survive....... and making Castlevania into Pachinkoslots, the company has basically been anything but gamer friendly. Snake is a gaming icon, but here's the thing, we know Kojima wanted Snake in Smash4(At least, I believe that interview is still touted as true), but Sakurai didn't, most likely due to the legal mumbo jumbo it would entail.
Now does that mean Snake was 'impossible'? No, absolutely not, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me if Snake went through a lot of red tape, especially since his series icon changed from the foxhound logo to the !
3: The biggest problem with Ridley by and large has been his size. Sakurai even says now that he 'made it work' this time, but I don't think you were here when people saw new Ridley. Some people legit thought he looked TOO SMALL.
Of course, Ridley is a HUGE star and deserved to get in Smash, and every fake leak throws in Ridley because 'hurr durr Ridley', so while I can't confirm or deny it helps the leak, his size has always been an issue.
4: No, Simon wasn't 'a given'. People were already SUPER sketchy on Snake even coming back, and if Snake couldn't be in, then Simon obviously wasn't going to get in either. The only reason people started touting Simon en-masse was due to Verg.
And no, Verg had only 'heard' from a person that "No DK", he didn't stand by that claim since said person got that information from a random 4chan leak.
Besides, at the end of the day, Verg has only promised 2 characters who have yet to be shown, Isabelle from Animal Crossing, and a Gen 7 mon' that's not Decidueye, Mimikyu or Lycanroc.
Mimikyu got knocked out of the race today, so that's 1/3, and I think a new Pokemon character is almost a given to be frank.
I'm not saying Verg is right but, he only has 2 characters left anyway, so whether he's right or he's wrong, it doesn't 'really' matter when he doesn't even have that much info to give anyway.