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It isn't a valid reason. If you still follow patterns, then the entire base roster for Ultimate would've been characters who appeal to the hardcore fans.No, he said that he was approached later by an executive to add a character from an upcoming game and they decided on Corrin. Originally there was no plan to do so.
Corrin doesn't count purely because he wasn't initially planned. If when they decided on the DLC characters Corrin was there then he would but he had special circumstances that don't apply to the rest of the cast of DLC. And yes there were vets and 3rd parties which is why it's probable they might go all 3rd party. The DLC for 4 were characters people were most likely to already know but since there are no vets to add now 3rd parties would be the only way to stick to a similar roster selection. And finally patterns don't always hold especially for Smash I agree but it's still a valid reason to think all DLC may be 3rd party.
This is not a valid reason.
Corrin himself may have been a character suggested to Sakurai then added, but you also have no proof that they wouldn't have gotten a Nintendo newcomer anyways.
And, once again, if this isn't good enough for you, only patterns are what is suggesting at least most DLC being third party. They are not a valid point to go by. You need a stronger point to support your argument.