Sunrise, Sunset - Isaac for Smash Ultimate #GoldenSunday

[XenoWarriorX]

how did he do though? If he did poorly, then rip the dream

No one knows. The one thing that we have is more of an estimation of fan polls around that time.

View attachment 161267

Here is the full render of Fake Isaac


Credit to https://twitter.com/LepyPepy

Called it.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

There are probably a number of people who voted in the ballot who don’t vote in fan polls

 

[SchAlternate]

View attachment 161267

Here is the full render of Fake Isaac


Credit to https://twitter.com/LepyPepy

Okay, I have to admit, now that I'm seeing the full picture, young Isaac using his older self's coat would be pretty dope. Prolly won't happen though.

Either way, glad this rumor was put to rest.

 

[XenoWarriorX]

There are probably a number of people who voted in the ballot who don’t vote in fan polls

That there is true. But even then, wasn't King K Rool the one who got in that was always in the top 5?

 

[Drclaw411]

I’ve never played Golden Sun, but I’ve been a Ridley supporter since pre-Melee and a K Rool supporter since pre-Brawl. I know what it’s like to have unwavering support for multiple Smash hype cycles, knowing that your fandom’s support is more or less the only thing going for your character and just hoping that this time, finally, that’s enough to make it happen.

So for that reason alone, I support.

 

[THE 6r]

View attachment 161267

Here is the full render of Fake Isaac


Credit to https://twitter.com/LepyPepy

I have to admit, well played good sir, well played.

 

[DogManStar]

That there is true. But even then, wasn't King K Rool the one who got in that was always in the top 5?

King K. Rool was like top 3 on almost every poll. Even then, we genuinely beat him once on the first big Reddit ballot poll (like right after April 1). I really really hope those results are reflected in the real ballot.

 

[XenoWarriorX]

I’ve never played Golden Sun, but I’ve been a Ridley supporter since pre-Melee and a K Rool supporter since pre-Brawl. I know what it’s like to have unwavering support for multiple Smash hype cycles, knowing that your fandom’s support is more or less the only thing going for your character and just hoping that this time, finally, that’s enough to make it happen.

So for that reason alone, I support.

Hey, thanks. Even though I haven't played the original DKC games, I'm really glad you guys got King K Rool.

(Though, i'm really glad Ridley got in. Yeeeees.)

But all I ask for is just some representation of one of my favorite franchises in any form. I hope it happens. Thanks again!

 

[Organization XIII]

There are probably a number of people who voted in the ballot who don’t vote in fan polls

That is true but due the way statistics work unless it turns out that the online majority is a very insignificant minority (which with only 1 million votes in the ballot it isn't) then that actually doesn't matter and the online polls can still be used to give us a good indication of how the actual ballot turned out.

 

[Tiymako]

A grain of salt and a grain of truth.

It's even more of a grain of truth because Sakurai is the one who posted it in the first place, yet people are talking about the colour of the chairs being more important. I mean those colours could represent any character around those colours. Meanwhile, the Sakurai tweet is seeming to directly reference Golden Sun which should be more relevant the colour of chairs.

People who say Golden Sun is only liked because of nostalgia annoy me to no end. Right, because I totally only loved the games despite playing them for the first time three years ago because of nostalgia. They weren't even my first JRPGs, which is another reason I hear those people give for the games being so loved. I think these people just can't comprehend the concept of taste or something. Or if you say something like that to them, they'll just say your opinions are wrong. Which, if you're not joking, is ridiculous, because an opinion cannot be wrong.

I know how you feel towards RPG purists and it's pathetic the way they up hold their "superior" tastes and think that they know what games deserve to fail and what don't. I mean, if someone loves a game that they love and purists like them crap on it than it shows how far up their own arses they are. People like them should learn humality and respect. Even if it's a good game, but you don't like it. Someone else always will.

The whole Golden Sun is only good because of nostalgia isn't a good excuse anymore, because real fans of the series know the flaws. They still don't really care and love it regardless. Just like how others treat Dark Dawn lesser than the first two games even though all three are great games.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

That there is true. But even then, wasn't King K Rool the one who got in that was always in the top 5?

Yeah, but i was talking about the broader smash bros audience, as in, a fan poll that has ~100 people voting doesn’t represent 1,000,000 well enough.

 

[Nossnitro102]

There are probably a number of people who voted in the ballot who don’t vote in fan polls

Or vice versa. But that's just it. We DON'T know anything about it. For all we know he didn't even break into the top 100 range or anything. We just.
Don't know.
But I highly doubt he wasn't noticed if everyone put in the work to actually vote and even got others to vote too.

 

[XenoWarriorX]

Yeah, but i was talking about the broader smash bros audience.

The broader smash audience would've voted for returning characters.

(And the general public would just put Goku, because normie.)

 

[DogManStar]

Yeah, but i was talking about the broader smash bros audience.

Well, I imagine most Smash fans are Nintendo fans to some extent. Probably a lot of people about 10 years older than me, too, which would explain how K. Rool got to be so successful on the ballot. Golden Sun was popular with people around that age. Even then, I know some Golden Sun fans my age, too. I don't think it's too impossible to imagine that Isaac was successful on the ballot too, if both K. Rool and seemingly Geno (according to Sakurai's mention of his popularity).

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Well, I imagine most Smash fans are Nintendo fans to some extent. Probably a lot of people about 10 years older than me, too, which would explain how K. Rool got to be so successful on the ballot. Golden Sun was popular with people around that age. Even then, I know some Golden Sun fans my age, too. I don't think it's too impossible to imagine that Isaac was successful on the ballot too, if both K. Rool and seemingly Geno (according to Sakurai's mention of his popularity).

I don’t deny any potential success for isaac, geno, banjo, or whomever, but i try not to use polls as a way to determine whether or not a character will be in.
After all, if a poll on Isaac were to appear on GameFaqs, how would that turn out?

 

[DogManStar]

I don’t deny any potential success for isaac, geno, banjo, or whomever, but i try not to use polls as a way to determine whether or not a character will be in.
After all, if a poll on Isaac were to appear on GameFaqs, how would that turn out?

He has done well there in the past. Infact, a poll just this past week actually had Isaac placing as the least-hated newcomer out of a selection of Bandana Dee, Shantae, Banjo, and himself, with hundreds of votes. Polls there during the ballot had him placing very high, alongside vets like Snake and K. Rool. Check out Magmortar75's DLC opinion series to see that Isaac was definitely one of the most loved options for a newcomer then, and still seems to be now. Even on GameFAQs.

 

[TempestSurge]

how did he do though? If he did poorly, then rip the dream

Yes rip. If we're not banking on Golden Sun nostalgia, Isaac's long standing popularity from Brawl, or fan outcry of assist removal in 4 to bolster him some votes in the ballot, we're up the creek without a paddle buddy.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

He has done well there in the past. Infact, a poll just this past week actually had Isaac placing as the least-hated newcomer out of a selection of Bandana Dee, Shantae, Banjo, and himself, with hundreds of votes. Polls there during the ballot had him placing very high, alongside vets like Snake and K. Rool. Check out Magmortar75's DLC opinion series to see that Isaac was definitely one of the most loved options for a newcomer then, and still seems to be now. Even on GameFAQs.

Well, the general impression of GameFaqs i got from this site was that they hated isaac to a t. I’ll check that out then.

 

[Drclaw411]

Hey, thanks. Even though I haven't played the original DKC games, I'm really glad you guys got King K Rool.

(Though, i'm really glad Ridley got in. Yeeeees.)

But all I ask for is just some representation of one of my favorite franchises in any form. I hope it happens. Thanks again!

It’s just such a different Smash hype cycle this time around. I mean, we’ve all done this 2-3 times before, depending on when people became fans. But this time is just different. Instead of hoping against hope for some of the most wanted characters and instead getting out-there picks like Wii Fit Trainer, Pichu, and Rob, this entire time has been nothing but fan demand. The characters with the most support are literally all we’ve seen so far. Inkling, Ridley, Simon, K Rool, and the fact the echos literally exist just to include high-demand characters who otherwise wouldn’t have a chance. Look at the newcomers so far, and the impact of the Smash Ballot simply cannot be ignored.

Instead of Sakurai trying to pull from he previous console’s relevancy and then throwing in a retro rep or two, it’s—at least to this point—a newcomer (and veteran!) roster that seems to be hand-picked from the Smash Ballot.

I mean, aside from a Gen 7 Pokemon like Incineroar, I’m thinking the entire newcomer roster this time will be fan requested. And that’s why I think Isaac his his first true, legitimate shot at the roster. Hell, I could easily see the rest of the non-echo roster being Isaac, Geno, Bandana Dee, Gen 7 Pokemon, and then if he still pulled from the Wii U/3DS library Chibi-Robo, Wonder Red, and another Xenoblade character.

Between the name “Ultimate” and the inclusion of Ridley, Inkling, K Rool, Simon, and Chrom, there’s no way to deny that the fans built this roster. It’s jusy a matter of which fanbases stuffed the ballot box the hardest.

 

[DogManStar]

Well, the general impression of GameFaqs i got from this site was that they hated isaac to a t. I’ll check that out then.

Nah, it's just that his most vocal haters are located there.

 

[Drclaw411]

Nah, it's just that his most vocal haters are located there.

I have never understood the point of being a detractor to any character. The more characters, the better.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Nah, it's just that his most vocal haters are located there.

It appears that Magmortar75 is no longer active on gamefaqs, so i could not find anyting.

 

[DogManStar]

It appears that Magmortar75 is no longer active on gamefaqs, so i could not find anyting.

Yeah, I forgot he deleted his old account. Give me a minute or two, I'll find the old spreadsheet he collected during that era.

 

[SebasSancy]

View attachment 161267

Here is the full render of Fake Isaac


Credit to https://twitter.com/LepyPepy

I didnt really like this render. Hopefully the real Isaac we get looks so much better

 

[Jupiter Ivan]

I guess only time will tell honestly. We don’t know how Isaac did in the actual ballot and we’ll never truly know. All we can do is hope that our efforts over the past few years have amounted to something.

And honestly, I think it did. I mean look. If Isaac doesn’t make it in I’ll be livid, but look at what’s happening. He’s being talked about. Not just by fans, but everyone. From fans to those that are genuinely curious about the franchise to naysayers to YouTubers to fake leakers. I’m the proudest I’ve ever been of the GS fan base.

 

[XenoWarriorX]

I have never understood the point of being a detractor to any character. The more characters, the better.

Mostly because competition.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Mostly because competition.

It’s like trying to get the next smash bros on Black Friday

 

[DogManStar]

Here's the old sheet

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Here's the old sheet

.... a Giraffe? Was this dude on imgur.

 

[alguidrag]

Any yet to be debunked leaks? Nothing new on the Gardevoir leak or Neogaf... but some other?

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

There is another leak of Gardevoir?

Any yet to be debunked leaks? Nothing new on the Gardevoir leak or Neogaf... but some other?

 

[Flynn.Scifo]

In case you guys are curious, the guy who leaked the pictures with Agnès etc confirmed it was fake and he made it for fun.

 

[RandomAce]

I agree, Felix is super cold. Him getting a smash invite would be like

"oh, neat"
View attachment 161229

Felix would be as edgy as Dark Pit if that were the case. Now I really want him, it’s the battle of edgies: Dark Pit vs. Felix vs. Shadow.

Funniest thing about it is that they’re all echoes. (Although, I don’t really like Shadow).

 

[Metocles]

how did he do though? If he did poorly, then rip the dream

I'll sort of walk you through my thought process on this. First thing's first: who voted on this ballot? The 1.8 million number obviously involves duplicates, but it's made up of people that are a mixture of fervent smash players, casual players who like the series and play the games in it and people who have no horse in the race because they were either told to vote by someone else or they do it for the lulz.

People that do it for the lulz that vote on meme characters or to be funny can be discarded in this scenario. There's just not a large enough number to even matter on this front. Even if people put down characters like Goku, Kermit the Frog and the Black Power Ranger, it's not going to amass nearly as many votes because there's no power behind it. None of the meme characters have a community to push the idea enough.

This leaves us with the other categories. In these kinds of polls, around 1/3 of the votes effectively disappear into nothingness because of the same reasoning. Maybe there's roughly 100 people that really want Dig Dug. The top 25 characters are going to dwarf a number like that. For all we know it could be even higher than 1/3 of all votes evaporating because of that. So, how do you crystallize a large enough number knowing this?

Well, a really good start is looking at the fervent smash fanbase. We actually already have a very good representative sample to show us how boards like this and other resources voted in this poll and typically vote in these polls. The ones that are the most consistent and steady are the ones that are going to already separate themselves from the rest of the pack. We know how Isaac does, and he doesn't slouch at all compared to the top dogs. These are also typically the people that tell others to vote for their character using their separate computer. That balloons the number some more.

The rest is left to casual fans which is the only real question mark left. We're not working with no puzzle pieces though. First, remember that this is a world-wide poll. Any countries where the Smash series is released and played was capable of voting here. So you have to ask yourself the next question: which characters are even known by casual fans in various countries? Remember that some of the games characters hail from may never have even seen a release in their country. Takamaru and Sable Prince for instance hail from Japan-only games that aren't even known by your typical casual gamer. I wouldn't even be able to pronounce the games they're from. Is a random voter from Mexico or Germany going to even know them? Doubtful.

It's a little murky from here because then you have to ask the question of casual popularity, but honestly to what I've whittled down already? Isaac fits all these categories and has already broken through to the top 25 easy under these conditions. We also know that Isaac is popular world-wide and has a steady following. Especially in Europe. I mean, maybe Europeans can weigh in here to gauge some of this. Are series like Kirby well received in your country (Bandana Waddle Dee)? How does it compare to Golden Sun? From what I've come to understand, most European countries really love Pokemon (who doesn't?) and Sonic, but has also grown a close attachment to the Golden Sun series.

In the U.S., it's much more of a mixed bag because we get nearly every game release and have a large sense of nostalgia for 2000s era gaming. You can recognize that with K. Rool and Ridley. For us in the States, Golden Sun has its popularity but it can also get lost by a lot of recency bias because of push to cater towards newer and newer things.

Like I said, I suspect a top 5 placing because of how global GS has become and how ironclad the popularity is. I'm about to call it the Golden Sun Standard because that's exactly what it is. You can use it as a baseline to see how other favorite characters go through their rise and falls throughout the speculation process.

 

[StormC]

I have never understood the point of being a detractor to any character. The more characters, the better.

If you view your character as the ultimate most important character missing from the roster it’s easy to look at other newcomers and go “stop ignoring us.” K. Rool and Ridley fans were sort of infamous for this.

Also gamers tend to be an entitled bunch.

 

[DogManStar]

Do we know for sure that the ballot counted duplicate votes though? That would make things a lot easier for us.

 

[Flynn.Scifo]

Smash bros invitation tickets are limited, especially now Sakurai said we shouldn't expect many newcomers. So any character is a potential rival to the one you want in. Some like Isaac, skull kid, Geno are more of a threat than others and basically kill chances of less prominent / more obscure characters to get in.

 

[THE TemporaryFool]

Just a thought: many people bring up the stage count as away to prove that isaac isn’t coming. But we don’t know all the music that is in the game yet... something they don’t bring up

 

[Silo777]

I'll sort of walk you through my thought process on this. First thing's first: who voted on this ballot? The 1.8 million number obviously involves duplicates, but it's made up of people that are a mixture of fervent smash players, casual players who like the series and play the games in it and people who have no horse in the race because they were either told to vote by someone else or they do it for the lulz.

People that do it for the lulz that vote on meme characters or to be funny can be discarded in this scenario. There's just not a large enough number to even matter on this front. Even if people put down characters like Goku, Kermit the Frog and the Black Power Ranger, it's not going to amass nearly as many votes because there's no power behind it. None of the meme characters have a community to push the idea enough.

This leaves us with the other categories. In these kinds of polls, around 1/3 of the votes effectively disappear into nothingness because of the same reasoning. Maybe there's roughly 100 people that really want Dig Dug. The top 25 characters are going to dwarf a number like that. For all we know it could be even higher than 1/3 of all votes evaporating because of that. So, how do you crystallize a large enough number knowing this?

Well, a really good start is looking at the fervent smash fanbase. We actually already have a very good representative sample to show us how boards like this and other resources voted in this poll and typically vote in these polls. The ones that are the most consistent and steady are the ones that are going to already separate themselves from the rest of the pack. We know how Isaac does, and he doesn't slouch at all compared to the top dogs. These are also typically the people that tell others to vote for their character using their separate computer. That balloons the number some more.

The rest is left to casual fans which is the only real question mark left. We're not working with no puzzle pieces though. First, remember that this is a world-wide poll. Any countries where the Smash series is released and played was capable of voting here. So you have to ask yourself the next question: which characters are even known by casual fans in various countries? Remember that some of the games characters hail from may never have even seen a release in their country. Takamaru and Sable Prince for instance hail from Japan-only games that aren't even known by your typical casual gamer. I wouldn't even be able to pronounce the games they're from. Is a random voter from Mexico or Germany going to even know them? Doubtful.

It's a little murky from here because then you have to ask the question of casual popularity, but honestly to what I've whittled down already? Isaac fits all these categories and has already broken through to the top 25 easy under these conditions. We also know that Isaac is popular world-wide and has a steady following. Especially in Europe. I mean, maybe Europeans can weigh in here to gauge some of this. Are series like Kirby well received in your country (Bandana Waddle Dee)? How does it compare to Golden Sun? From what I've come to understand, most European countries really love Pokemon (who doesn't?) and Sonic, but has also grown a close attachment to the Golden Sun series.

In the U.S., it's much more of a mixed bag because we get nearly every game release and have a large sense of nostalgia for 2000s era gaming. You can recognize that with K. Rool and Ridley. For us in the States, Golden Sun has its popularity but it can also get lost by a lot of recency bias because of push to cater towards newer and newer things.

Like I said, I suspect a top 5 placing because of how global GS has become and how ironclad the popularity is. I'm about to call it the Golden Sun Standard because that's exactly what it is. You can use it as a baseline to see how other favorite characters go through their rise and falls throughout the speculation process.

Also, a good portion of the votes probably went to veterans that are in the game now.

 

[TappyBat]

hey guests, come in and say hi. we don't bite!