Hey Everyone,
Here is my first post! Yay! This is my opinion of all of the leaks and rumors and analyses that have happened in the past year. I think Nintendo (and Sakurai, and whoever has creative decisions on Smash) probably takes a look at pretty much every humanoid character they have every time they make one of these games. The first consideration they made, back in the N64 SSB days, was how "iconic" or necessary a character was. They were obviously trying to make a new fighting game, and wanted to incorporate all of their biggest franchises. So clearly Donkey Kong, Kirby, Link, Luigi, Mario, Samus, and Yoshi were all in. Those are the biggest 5 (plus Yoshi and Luigi because along with Peach, they really represent the Royal Family of Nintendo).
Next they looked to some of the franchises that their fanbase grew up on. Star Fox, F-Zero, Earthbound. Maybe not as "iconic" as the big 5, but games that Nintendo was proud of and had interesting leading men. People that could be unique fighters. Hence: Fox, Captain Falcon, Ness.
Then they took their 25 Billion dollar Pokémon franchise and decided to incorporate that as well: Jigglypuff, Pikachu. Because of limitations of time and hardware, they kept the game at 12 characters and balanced it out and released it and started a phenomenon. Fast forward to Melee.
Nintendo knows it needs to make a great game, and they know they have the formula down. They are going to take their iconic characters, add the ones they weren't able to include in the first game, and make this is a series of games that doesn't just rotate in characters that are fresh and gimmicky. That's the important thing here. Nintendo doesn't want to add characters that are in games being released around the same time. They want to have you be able to play the best characters from the best series they have. Characters that are important to them as a company. So where did they go?
Well they obviously went to Mario first. We got: Bowser, Dr. Mario, Peach. Dr. Mario might have been a little bit of a stretch, but remember that this was the first time they were making a sequel to this new fighting game, and like EVERY other fighting game, they decided to make some "clones". And Dr. Mario was actually pretty cool. Then they went to the Zelda Franchise: Ganondorf, Sheik, Zelda, and Young Link. Again, Young Link might have been a stretch, but for the same reason as Dr. Mario, he was actually pretty cool. If anything, Sheik was the oddball here. But Ocarina was so perfect and popular that they didn't want to let the awesome character of Sheik pass them by. Then they went to their other huge money maker (not as iconic or old, but very fast becoming a gigantic new hit for them), Pokémon: Pichu and Mewtwo. No need to talk about Pichu, another Dr. Mario/Toon LInk ordeal that went horribly wrong. They added Falco as well, to give Star Fox another representative (and some awesome stages), which was easy to do with a clone.
They had the space to not make any cuts (and why would they? Almost all of the characters in the original had fan bases and were pretty cool). They wanted to include a franchise that could bring a new style to the game. Fire Emblem is a great Nintendo franchise. It is a rare example of an exclusive RPG, and a perfect fit for a fighting game. Hence: Marth and Roy. Marth was a no-brainer, and Roy was a clone - which we already know Nintendo was doing at this point.
That leaves us with the only two that didn't make "sense": Ice Climbers and Game + Watch. But didn't they make sense? They were games from when Nintendo was first getting into Video Games, and Nintendo owed a lot to their success. And isn't that what Smash Rosters are all about? Representing the history of Nintendo while appeasing fans with cool characters? And Nintendo really nailed it with those characters. They were unique, brought history with them, and fun to play. A classic game (still played to this day) was born. So we move on to Brawl.
Well, Nintendo decided to make their first round of cuts. They don't want any more clones, so they take them out. Dr. Mario - gone. Pichu - gone. Roy - gone. Young Link - gone. Easy. Mewtwo - Gone. Not entirely easy. I don't really understand why they would cut him. Those are the only 4 characters Nintendo has every cut. And they were all added to Melee as clones. And two of them were replaced with better characters that weren't clones. Plus Lucario instead of Mewtwo, which was odd. I don't know why Dr. Mario was cut, and probably should've been at least a costume change. But I can't explain everything. So what did they add?
To follow a pattern of this post, we got new Mario and Zelda characters: Toon Link and Wario. Toon Link allowed Nintendo to add another "good guy" from Zelda. It also let them use new art from Wind Waker and kinda "keep" Young Link. I thought it was a great compromise, and he plays different enough to be a really fun character. Wario is essentially a classic villain at this point. He's in all of these crossover games. And he was first, before WaLuigi.
Then we look at DK, Metroid, and Kirby: We get Diddy Kong (not a surprise at all), Zero-Suit (which wasn't really a new character, but definitely made sense since there is only one "good guy" in this franchise, and it allowed a different play style), King Dedede (not a surprise at all, especially since Sakurai invented Kirby), and Meta Knight (slightly more surprising, but again - Sakurai).
For Fire Emblem, we lost the clone Rob, and got the newcomer Ike. Great swap.
For Pokémon, we got a new aspect of playing with Pokémon Trainer (which I'm assuming had at least part to do with why we lost poor Mewtwo, who's had a rough go of it in life), and Lucario (the other half of losing Mewtwo).
For Star Fox and Earthbound (the other series that Nintendo originally included), we got Lucas and Wolf. If anything, it's weird that there wasn't a new F-Zero character. This would've been the time for one.
So that leaves us with 5 new characters that had no precedent.
First: Olimar. Did this surprise anybody? It was made my Miyamoto. It was a unique fighting style.
Second: Pit. Again - surprising? It was made by Sakamoto. And had a game coming out. And was a classic NES game.
Third: R.O.B.? Surprising, for sure. But only in the way that Ice Climbers and Game + Watch were surprising. This was a classic game from NES. A unique, awesome thing Nintendo did (like Duck Hunt), that solidified them as a Video Game company. I had one.
Fourth and Fifth?: The introduction of Snake and Sonic. Sonic makes a ton of sense to me. They were introducing 3rd party characters, and he's the one to get. He is the mascot of the company that was directly rivaled to Nintendo for over a decade. And he plays very differently. Snake is a little more confusing, but only because the second 3rd party should've clearly been Megaman.
Now where does that leave us? This is what we know:
1. Nintendo considers the following franchises to be essential to Smash: Mario, Zelda, DK, Metroid, Kirby.
2. Nintendo wants to keep these three franchises represented: Star Fox, F-Zero, Earthbound.
3. Nintendo will keep Fire Emblem represented.
4. Pokémon will be in the game in a huge way. These characters will be the only ones that aren't "classic", unless Mewtwo comes back and they admit they made a mistake with Lucario (which it looks like they aren't going to do that since they just announced him).
5. Nintendo will add 1 or 2 characters from a classic franchise that helped define it's early days as a video game developer.
6. Nintendo will add 1 or 2 third party characters (we know they already added Megaman, which makes total sense).
Here are the facts thus far:
1. Wii Fit Trainer is in. While "unpredictable",shouldn't be surprising to anyone. The only surprising thing is that it wasn't a Mii instead. But arguably Wii Fit is just as important, and clearly easier to make into a fighting game character. And we still might get a Mii. But this is a new direction for Nintendo (like Game + Watch, and R.O.B. before it) that helped define a generation for it. Great inclusion.
2. Animal Crossing is now represented. We have to assume that this means that Nintendo considers this an important, iconic franchise in the same way that Pikim became one.
3. Rosalina is in. Again, this shouldn't be too surprising. Nintendo always adds new Mario characters, and she is clearly the new one to add. She's in both Galaxy games (which were commercial and critical grandslams), and the new Super Mario 3D World game (which is another perfect game). The only surprising thing is that they didn't include Toad first. But I think at this point, Toad is not a real thing. It's more like a race of things that exist in that world. I'm very confused by it.
Here are the predictions we can make based off of this:
1. An older franchise that Nintendo considers classic will be represented for the first time by it's hero. Here are the front runners: Little Mac (Punch Out), Erdrick (Dragon Warrior), Sir Arthur (Ghosts N Goblins), and Bomberman (Bomberman).
2. There could be someone from a franchise that we don't expect, but Nintendo plans to bring back (Balloon Fight and Murasame Castle are the front runners here).
3. There will be at least another 3rd party character. It will either be Snake, or one of these two people: Pacman (Pacman), or Belmont (Castlevania).
4. If Miyamoto is making a game, that character will be in it. They could be revealed at E3.
5. No characters that aren't classic are getting in the game. If they're "instant classics", they could. This hasn't happened with Nintendo in a while. The best bet in this case would be Shulk. Xenoblade was a game that fans begged for, and that Nintendo finally brought west to great success. So much so, that they're making a sequel which could feasibly help save the entire system.
6. Fire Emblem will have a new character. Who knows if it'll replace Ike? If they're similar, he's gone (think Lucario for Mewtwo). It'll likely be Chrom.
7. Unless King K. Rool is coming back as the villain for DK Freeze, his inclusion doesn't make much sense. It's more likely that Dixie Kong, but could be nobody. Considering how big a deal Nintendo made of the fact that you can play as Cranky and Dixie, I would imagine one of them being included.
8. Ridley absolutely will be in the game. A new playable character from Metroid is a given at this point. Maybe it's not Ridley. But that's the front runner for sure.
9. A new playable character from Kid Icarus will be in the game as well. I have no idea who because I haven't played any of the new games. I would guess it's someone that it's in both the original and the new one, which would make me think Medusa or Palutena? Clearly it seems Palutena is the front runner.
10. Any leak that doesn't make sense based on everything I have just written can be soundly dismissed.
Here is my best guess of a cast list, based on knowing nobody at Nintendo but looking at what I think Nintendo is trying to represent as a company in this game:
Original Twelve Fighters (12): Captain Falcon, Donkey Kong, Fox, Jigglypuff (ugh), Kirby, Link, Luigi, Mario, Ness, Pikachu, Samus, Yoshi.
Brawl/Melee Fighters (20): Bowser, Diddy Kong, Falco, Ganondorf, Ice Climbers (ugh), King Dedede, Lucario (ugh), Lucas, Marth, Meta Knight, Peach, Pikmin (Olimar), Pit, Pokémon Trainer, Sheik (ugh), Sonic, Toon Link, Wario, Wolf, Zelda.
Newcomers (12): Wii Fit Trainer, Megaman, Villager, Rosalina, Little Mac, Pacman, Shulk, Ridley, Chrom, Cranky Kong, Palutena, Samurai Goroh.
Possible but unlikely (2 of these): Bomberman, Takamura, Ninten (the only Mother protagonist we don't have), Captain N, Belmont, Medusa, Dark Pit. I think two of these people have a good chance.
TOTAL: 45-46.
