Well, the first one is the one that seems weird to me.
Mainly because the outline is inconsistent throughout the model, and, most importantly, inconsistent with Mario. Also, her proportions are strange and don't match up with the second image. Also, she's in her standard pose that she's usually seen in, so that detracts from it's plausibility somewhat.
I think the problem is this one uses the Brawl model, instead of the Uprising.
Also, there's the fact that the floatiing symbol behind her (don't know it's actual name) looks kinda like it was an image of it but sheared. Then again, that may be because it's flat.
The second image, however, is absolutely fantastic. The shading, the outline, the unique pose...all right on the money.
I don't see it any problems with it other than the context (which couldn't be ascertained from the image by itself)
Another thing I like about the second one is that it's just got Palutena, no other characters. Many phony leaks try too
hard by picturing the characters with other characters, leaving it open to ridicule by comparing the two.
It's also focused right on the console, which it good, since it makes no sense when leaks are wobbly weird side snapshots.
Both of the images are huge, which is a good sign because camera snapshots are generally over 1500x1500 in size. So if it's not a snapshot, then they were really clever in making them that big.