I think the DLC season is a different ball game. Verg swore the SE rep would be shown first, but that didn't happen. I don't doubt the legitimacy of his sources, but I think our so-called insider knowledge might be lesser during DLC winter
That's kind of the point I have been trying to go with. I think at some point we need to just not jump the gun on Erdrick so soon. There wasn't a single correct guess at DLC during Smash 4. The only characters we got right were Ryu and Roy because of a poorly timed patch revealing character information. But not a single person knew guessed that Mewtwo, Lucas, Cloud, Corrin or Bayonetta were coming into the game.
What makes this a little more interesting is that we have been hearing about a Square Enix character to be in Smash Bros since August. (From Vergeben) So I can imagine that there are three direct paths to it.
1) It is in fact Erdrick. Given that he has appeared as one of the seven names floating around (I am going to keep that in effect due to being heard around the same time.) It wouldn't surprise me if the someone would know what is in development for him.
2) The character is Geno. This one seems a little bias but Geno seems at this point to be the character with the next best odds behind Erdrick. Having his name actually mentioned within NOA also helps but that source has also self admitted to not fully know until a day before the direct. Geno is also the one character that would seem to fit within the project plan for Smash Bros but him being pushed back could be a result of the Square Enix negotiations for DLC which also involved Cloud. This can be counter argued with Joker since he was a character that made his appearance well in the middle of the initial project plan.
3) It is any of the other on The List of Seven. Any of those seven have a shot at this point but not as likely as the other two. I'm suspect to believe "being heard the most equals most likely" just due to the very idea of trying to keep secrecy within the company. Square Enix isn't working on the character and it is very unlikely that they will have many internal employees being apart of the character design process. Since we truly do not know or cannot confirm anything either way, I am also willing to say that the idea that 'Sora is not the character' is bunk for now. He seems the least likely already but I don't want to take the chance to really call a character and claim that he is in or out. So I am willing to at least leave him on the table as well.
4) The Square Enix character is a white elephant. This seems pretty unlikely due to how adamant everyone and their mom has been about Square Enix having a character is but who really knows.
This is my current mindset right now.
(I will be editing this post to make minor clarifications/edits as we go on)