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Sorcerer's 11 Open

#HBC | Kary

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Either way, i think I'm liking that order, except we gotta remember that z25 is still at the top.
z25 is effectively dead as long as the hunter is alive. We could lynch him, but that could lead us into a situation where the hunter's shot decides the game. Since the hunter could do something a little too clever and throw the game on their own, I think we're fine where we are. I may be slightly biased in this assessment since I really, really don't want to get vigged and somehow lose this very town-sided game.
 

Pythag

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z25 is effectively dead as long as the hunter is alive. We could lynch him, but that could lead us into a situation where the hunter's shot decides the game. Since the hunter could do something a little too clever and throw the game on their own, I think we're fine where we are. I may be slightly biased in this assessment since I really, really don't want to get vigged and somehow lose this very town-sided game.
I feel you, I was just being playful.

Pythag is too damn good at this game.
potato.PNG


This one's for you funnier.



Kary do raxxel's responses or lack thereof weaken your case or thoughts on Ex? Or is it the reminder of Z's interactions with Ex that have softened your case?
 

ranmaru

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Zen mentioned that Z had Rax as town, then later on said they didn't have a good read on them. I think that makes it likely Rax is his buddy. #1542
 

Pythag

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Xivii was for Raxxel as town initially because of this :

Are you saying that both Lore and Z25 are scum?

Because honestly I'm not sure about that, I think that would be WAY too obvious. No way a scum duo would want to attack the same person early game and risk association with each other like what is happening right now. As it stands it's one or the other to me.
 

ranmaru

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My reasoning is that, Z would give Rax a town read without there actually being a legitimate reason for that. Yet later on they forget about it, and give their actual read on Rax. (Which is null I think) Only reason to give a town read without there needing to be is for a scum mate they want to have a good position in town.
 

#HBC | Kary

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Kary do raxxel's responses or lack thereof weaken your case or thoughts on Ex? Or is it the reminder of Z's interactions with Ex that have softened your case?
My Ex read is just like a tone read, just general feels, plus I guess they were off the UP Waggon on D1. I don't have anything really solid I can put in either the town or scum columns for them, but I guess the best way to explain it is they don't feel like they're struggling to survive as the last mafia.

Raxxel on the other hand definitely feels like they could be the last mafia, although the lack of responses I have to file under the null column.
 

ranmaru

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There's also the lack of motivation they mentioned.
 

Pythag

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My reasoning is that, Z would give Rax a town read without there actually being a legitimate reason for that. Yet later on they forget about it, and give their actual read on Rax. (Which is null I think) Only reason to give a town read without there needing to be is for a scum mate they want to have a good position in town.
Read This page

This is UP giving his reads list, he puts Ex and Rax in the exact same category of 'town'


Do you think any of the interaction with Ex that follows could be wolf/sorc talking?
There are numerous pings like this between Ex and UP, Ex has numerous pings with everyone about everything so maybe it's NAI, it's just something I'm taking into consideration.
 

Pythag

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When Raxxel is asked about why his vote isn't on Z yet :
I'd like a cote count first. I'm pretty sure Z is close to being lynched and we still have a few days before the deadline hits. I'd like to give us time still to talk more before we lynch someone, especially with two replacements on the way.
When Raxxel Posts his reads, UP comes in to defend himself :
Eh. Why is reading Pythag so exciting? Comes off as forced.

However, your notes bit looks like a good stream of conscious so I like it.

I have some concerns with your read of me, however. You seem to be correlating tone with alignment, noting how my forceful posts are interpreted as scum leaning but the later posts are town leaning? I’ve been the same person the whole game.

In addition, you said that my Mamboo questioning was null and unreadablein your notes, but said it was questionable later? Why wouldn’t you say the posts you designated as potentially scummy?
 

ranmaru

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Probably not. I don't think they'd want to be obvious about it, and Funnier did say that UP did start with 'brother of my brother brother' to Ex in the last game. I always find lack of interaction more telling. (But sometimes things like what Zen explained about Z and Ex/You over rides that)
 

ranmaru

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In the quotes I outlined, I showed that Rax didn't ever join Z's wagon, but when your wagon was a similar size, they joined. Also, they said they scum read Lore but there was no mention of a scum read of them ever.
 

Raxxel

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Page 69 would be a nice number to end this on.

A question for everybody, assuming I die today, where is your mind headed for the next day? Would you still try to lynch Z's partner or just lynch Z?

I'm not a mind reader, when you say something vague like "subtle scumtells" how am I supposed to know what you mean?
If it is the same thing that you said at the time, then I will explain my problem with that.



First of all, I don't think Ranmaru was really targeting Poyzin at all. He just voted him and mentioned him as a possible lynch.
Secondly, Poyzin's approach towards myself and Ranmaru was completely different. He ignored my points against him, and only mentioned me once. Whereas Ranmaru he quoted multiple posts of, and basically made a big case against him.

So what I want to know is, what is the reason that made you vote Poyzin here? I want you to walk me through your thought process.
Because from the way that you described it at the time, it just doesn't seem accurate to what was really happening in the game.
How do you not consider a vote during the deadline end of a phase targeting? I'd agree if it were for pressure, but this was when we had to start thinking of a suitable person to lynch d1.

As for why I voted Poyzin, if you've been reading my posts, I gave my reasoning. They started to become reactive when attention shifted towards them and went on the defensive. I was initially confused by the wagon, but seeing how they responded to it convinced me to vote for them.

Anyway, Pythag Pythag , you asked why I would vote for Kary over Wiisp. I mainly found their posts from day 1 and 2 to be aggressive without substance. Their day 1 content especially did little. They start by asking for reads, not to evaluate the people they're asking, but in order to get a sense of direction while they catch up. This reads like somebody trying to play the game easy and ride the wave, which also matches their posts whining about drivel, as if they wish to make things more readable. They don't seem to want to put effort into actually reading each individual. Other small things like their vote on UP with no explanation attached, their approach to Funnier vs. ExLight where they outright announce their apathy to the outcome in terms of who dies, and their call for the hunter to claim are what make me uneasy about this slot.

If you want my next lynch, it wouldn't be Wiisp, it would be ExLight. Their excessive use of emotional appeal absolutely offsets me.
 

Pythag

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A question for everybody, assuming I die today, where is your mind headed for the next day? Would you still try to lynch Z's partner or just lynch Z?
Pretty sure if we don't lynch scum toDAy we have to tomorrow, so z25 gets put on the block.

Ex and Wiisp I'm sure have the math around what's optimal.

Anyway, Pythag Pythag , you asked why I would vote for Kary over Wiisp. I mainly found their posts from day 1 and 2 to be aggressive without substance. Their day 1 content especially did little. They start by asking for reads, not to evaluate the people they're asking, but in order to get a sense of direction while they catch up. This reads like somebody trying to play the game easy and ride the wave, which also matches their posts whining about drivel, as if they wish to make things more readable. They don't seem to want to put effort into actually reading each individual. Other small things like their vote on UP with no explanation attached, their approach to Funnier vs. ExLight where they outright announce their apathy to the outcome in terms of who dies, and their call for the hunter to claim are what make me uneasy about this slot.

If you want my next lynch, it wouldn't be Wiisp, it would be ExLight. Their excessive use of emotional appeal absolutely offsets me.
Ok that's fine.

Kary isn't active as you would like, and Ex uses emotion. Aren't either of those things NAI?

Why did you give us an ISO of ran?
 

ExLight

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A question for everybody, assuming I die today, where is your mind headed for the next day? Would you still try to lynch Z's partner or just lynch Z?
if you flip town we are forced to lynch Z25 during D4 if the bomb doesn't go off during N3
 

ranmaru

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It would be Kary after Z. Can you explain why you never stated a scum read on Lore before your #441?
 

ExLight

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There are numerous pings like this between Ex and UP
yea I kinda hate how he kept giving me townpants
we kinda joke around that he's my counterpart in this forum because he has many similarities with me so he can get kinda clingy trying to pair me with him

but as I said before, I was the one who called him out for asking too much and considering it a sorcerer tell which gotta be worth something right :upsidedown:
 

#HBC | Kary

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Raxxel Raxxel okay, I'll stop leading you around.

Why didn't you vote for z25 Day 1?
You had him between null and scum for most of the Day.
Before you voted, he waggons were tied at 3-3 between Poyzin and z25.
You yourself said that you didn't understand the Poyzin waggon.

And, I've given you a chance toDay to explain how you ended up voting for Poyzin.
To me, it looks pretty obvious. You had to avoid voting for z25 because he's your partner.

This is the votecount, and your vote comes at the top of the following page.
 

ranmaru

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I just want people to read it, and the quotes within to understand the context.
 

Raxxel

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Pretty sure if we don't lynch scum toDAy we have to tomorrow, so z25 gets put on the block.

Ex and Wiisp I'm sure have the math around what's optimal.



Ok that's fine.

Kary isn't active as you would like, and Ex uses emotion. Aren't either of those things NAI?

Why did you give us an ISO of ran?
Lack of activity, while it can be considered NAI, is often more attached to scum than it is town, at least from my experience. Keep in mind, my only other game as town had both werewolves get by with saying little to nothing. You're also kind of simplifying my points about them a bit. It's more the lack of substance to what they post, as well as them seeming disinterested in town's interests in general.

As for emotional appeal, it's definitely somewhat circumstantial as evidence, but it definitely comes off as a cheap way to get people off you.

The Ran ISO came from the stupid decision to order by which names came to mind first since I had the intention of giving everyone a read through. He hadn't been cleared, and with this new information he was the first one I thought of as a result. I wanted to play it safe and make sure I didn't overlook something about him. It started to feel like a waste of time since it was reaffirming a read I already had on him, but since I had taken the effort and time to put something on paper, I wanted to show it.
Raxxel Raxxel okay, I'll stop leading you around.

Why didn't you vote for z25 Day 1?
You had him between null and scum for most of the Day.
Before you voted, he waggons were tied at 3-3 between Poyzin and z25.
You yourself said that you didn't understand the Poyzin waggon.

And, I've given you a chance toDay to explain how you ended up voting for Poyzin.
To me, it looks pretty obvious. You had to avoid voting for z25 because he's your partner.

This is the votecount, and your vote comes at the top of the following page.
Why are you not responding to the post that gives my reasoning to vote for UP? While a reach (which is what made me scumread Z) is definitely on the scummier side of things, being reactive and defensive upon being called out is worse imo. It shows a larger focus in staying alive than solving. That's what knocked UP down for me. Z was my strongest scumread, but this was early game where hardly anyone had much to work with yet, so my impressions between the two shifted between then and when I had decided to vote UP.
It would be Kary after Z. Can you explain why you never stated a scum read on Lore before your #441?
The man quit. I think I just didn't feel like it was relevant to say alone, so I brought it up when saying scum reads because it was on my mind.
 

ranmaru

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Why didn't you think it was relevant? At what point did you begin to have the scum read on Lore, and why didn't you mention it at that point, but felt It was relevant to state a dislike of funnier.
 

ExLight

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Reads are never a waste of time, tbf
especially yours since you're on the chopping block
 

#HBC | Kary

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Why are you not responding to the post that gives my reasoning to vote for UP? While a reach (which is what made me scumread Z) is definitely on the scummier side of things, being reactive and defensive upon being called out is worse imo. It shows a larger focus in staying alive than solving. That's what knocked UP down for me. Z was my strongest scumread, but this was early game where hardly anyone had much to work with yet, so my impressions between the two shifted between then and when I had decided to vote UP.
Maybe I could believe your reasoning if there was any shred of evidence that you thought this way at the time.
Do you recall when I posted 2 points against Poyzin, and you decided to speak up and say you disagreed with both of them?
Do you remember saying about Poyzin "I feel safe about this slot."
You have to understand, that from where I'm looking at this, you completely switched your reads at the 11th hour.

Oh also, when z25 got red checked your reaction was:
Well ****.
 

Raxxel

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Why didn't you think it was relevant? At what point did you begin to have the scum read on Lore, and why didn't you mention it at that point, but felt It was relevant to state a dislike of funnier.
Funnier's entrance was more remarkable to me since it reminded me of Rajam in Jungle Mafia. It got more of a reaction on the spot from me than Lore as a result, even if I found Lore's focus on how one player types to be more anti-town, so I think I more impulsively made a remark on him.

If I had to try and pinpoint, I think I had the intention of remarking on Lore's behavior as it happened when I made the post about him and Z doubling down, but Z caught my attention more overall since there was more to what he was posting than Lore. Lore was more scummy in my eyes but it was in a way that there was little to say about it.

Think of it like this; if Lore hadn't quit, I would have stated my scumread on him sooner or later anyhow.

Reads are never a waste of time, tbf
especially yours since you're on the chopping block
I've made my reads already tbh. The lynch list is Kary > Ex >>>> Wiisp >>> Ran.
Maybe I could believe your reasoning if there was any shred of evidence that you thought this way at the time.
Do you recall when I posted 2 points against Poyzin, and you decided to speak up and say you disagreed with both of them?
Do you remember saying about Poyzin "I feel safe about this slot."
You have to understand, that from where I'm looking at this, you completely switched your reads at the 11th hour.

Oh also, when z25 got red checked your reaction was:
Yes, because I disagreed with your rationale. I disagreed with your argument about how they thought out-loud (and honestly, even after the flip, reading back I disagree with it even more so because in the post you quoted UP was stating an observation and read), and I disagreed with your attack on UP over how they asked about who should be wagon'd, then because the post you quoted contradicted your accusation of him just trying to piggyback others, and now because you did the same thing in your entrance.

Still placed him in the same tier as Ran, where I specifically said the slot could change in my eyes.

I was surprised that Xivii managed to check a scum player this early. You're not arguing that I openly displayed dismay at my teammate being caught, are you?
 

ranmaru

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I think what it boils down to, is that at some points, you have nice analysis. Yet your behavior doesn't line up with town behavior. You were caught sitting on your laurels, especially considering your scumread in Z.
 

ExLight

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I was surprised that Xivii managed to check a scum player this early. You're not arguing that I openly displayed dismay at my teammate being caught, are you?
I mean
it doesn't sound too absurd to me :surppika:
 

#HBC | Kary

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Yes, because I disagreed with your rationale. I disagreed with your argument about how they thought out-loud (and honestly, even after the flip, reading back I disagree with it even more so because in the post you quoted UP was stating an observation and read), and I disagreed with your attack on UP over how they asked about who should be wagon'd, then because the post you quoted contradicted your accusation of him just trying to piggyback others, and now because you did the same thing in your entrance.

Still placed him in the same tier as Ran, where I specifically said the slot could change in my eyes.

I was surprised that Xivii managed to check a scum player this early. You're not arguing that I openly displayed dismay at my teammate being caught, are you?
It doesn't really matter what I argue at this point because I have a feeling you're gonna be dying pretty soon here. If you want to spend your last hours debating the little details with me then we can do that, but I don't think it will help your case.
 

Raxxel

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I think what it boils down to, is that at some points, you have nice analysis. Yet your behavior doesn't line up with town behavior. You were caught sitting on your laurels, especially considering your scumread in Z.
Agreed. Solving the game is the most important and fun part of mafia for me, so analysis is definitely where I'm strongest. But the things you've mentioned, like being proactive, are definitely things I'm just gonna have to pick up through more experience.
I mean
it doesn't sound too absurd to me :surppika:
maaaaaaan why do people gotta assume I'm dumb.

It doesn't really matter what I argue at this point because I have a feeling you're gonna be dying pretty soon here. If you want to spend your last hours debating the little details with me then we can do that, but I don't think it will help your case.
I tend to agree. If I'm dying I'd much rather spend what I have left doing what I enjoy in mafia. Only problem is that since the last page or so has been about me, there isn't much for me to analyze.

Wiisp Wiisp Who would you believe scum is killing tonight?
 

Raxxel

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Oh and why of course.

Question extends to Kary and Ex as well.
 

Wiisp

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who is scum killing? I know who I would kill if I was a wolf, and thats Ranmaru
the fact that he isnt town-cleared doesnt matter anymore, the amount of effort he has put into this game is insane, and its not like its small, like he is truely trying to solve, and even re-evaluating.

ranmaru ranmaru
I am home, what do you want me to talk about?
 

ranmaru

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Thoughts on current events and your lynch line. You asked for help, and I think I have delivered on that end.
 

Wiisp

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god ok, I will be around for most of the night now
I think I am done multi-tabling after all this is over
 

Wiisp

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in terms of Newcomb's process of finding mafia
Just look at who is doing things

Ex>Kary>Raxxel
Kary and Raxxel are quite close to each other in terms of doing things
but like I never really got the feeling that Kary was pushing anything maliciously?

I think this game just ends with a Raxxel lynch
 
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