Sorcerer's 11 Open

[ExLight]

That would imply that hitting the bomb is more important that offing the outed townies?

no

 

[ExLight]

I'm not sure if we're on the same page here

N2 -> they kill the seer
N3 -> they kill pythag
N4 -> they kill the bomb; if bomb takes down town (67% chance) we lose, if they take down scum (33% chance) we win

 

[ExLight]

if we want a no lynch it can change the odds to 50% each, but we can't leave it to D4 because we must lynch Z25 by then if the bomb hasn't died

 

[ExLight]

or we could like
not outh the damn bomb and have a 78% chance of scum not winning N4

 

[Pythag]

I'm not sure if we're on the same page here

N2 -> they kill the seer
N3 -> they kill pythag
N4 -> they kill the bomb; if bomb takes down town (67% chance) we lose, if they take down scum (33% chance) we win

We weren’t. I get what you’re saying now

 

[Pythag]

Since bomb is mandatory, you just want a good place for them to explode, but scum doesn’t get a second kill for having two of them alive.

 

[Pythag]

I would also never allow Z to give up here first of all
and I would never allow him to continue talking, if he did give up here

Also I think this is wine?

 

[Wiisp]

Also I think this is wine?

yes it is

 

[Pythag]

Wiisp, wouldn’t it make a more interesting game to not kill Z toDay?

 

[ExLight]

I wish I had some wine sigh

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Wiisp math is wrong. 7v2 right now. if z25 and xivii die it goes to 6v1

 

[Wiisp]

6v1
We mislynch, and they kill pythag
4v1
If we mislynch again
It's 2/1

If the bomb is hit and they hit town and we never make it to lylo

If the bomb is alive in lylo, they have to Lynch the bomb and bank on it killing town

Lmao what a ****ed state for wolves

 

[Wiisp]

I guess they can try killing the bomb before pythag?

 

[Xivii]

funnier6 what are you saying here?

Well then

That doesn’t even invalidate the town read on Wisp all that much that was an incredibly stupid play lol

What was stupid play?

 

[ExLight]

v1
If we mislynch again
It's 2/1

we might not have the 2-1 if they hit bomb during that night, but if they miss the bomb will just claim so we're guaranteed to win the 2vs1 because even if scum counterclaims we can lynch the bomb and explode the fake claim

 

[ExLight]

anyway, lynchin Z25 won't change much in the order of events if the bomb survives, but in case the bomb dies earlier it at least won't risk hitting town, which could reduce us a phase, that's why it's better to keep it around

 

[Wiisp]

Let's Lynch the bomb so mafia have a chance

 

[Wiisp]

The bomb kills z25 and now this game has life brought back into it

 

[funnier6]

funnier6 what are you saying here?

What was stupid play?

Wiisp had just been saying how incredibly insane it would be for Z to be scum with Poy when Poy basically put him at L-1

I thought that was a really neat observation though it's less great since we now know Z in fact was scum with POE

 

[funnier6]

Wiisp had just been saying how incredibly insane it would be for Z to be scum with Poy when Poy basically put him at L-1

I thought that was a really neat observation though it's less great since we now know Z in fact was scum with POE

What an autocorrect thats supposed to say Poy

 

[ExLight]

Wiisp had just been saying how incredibly insane it would be for Z to be scum with Poy when Poy basically put him at L-1

I thought that was a really neat observation though it's less great since we now know Z in fact was scum with POE

I guess Poy just wanted to draw Z's attention

Let's Lynch the bomb so mafia have a chance

It doesn't give mafia better odds, tbf

But it is a pretty non-ideal play if the bomb hasn't claimed/softed
Lynching the bomb now to hit Z52 eliminates the luck factor later in the game, but is really suboptimal since we can hope for scum to hit them during the night instead

worst case scenario, I can actually see us doing it in 4vs2, to bring it to 3vanilla vs1, and then a 2vanilla v 1 scum in the last phase

 

[Pythag]

But it is a pretty non-ideal play

Let's Lynch the bomb so mafia have a chance

The bomb kills z25 and now this game has life brought back into it

You guys are arguing apples and oranges.

 

[Wiisp]

ExLight
That's exactly what I want to do, remove the luck factor and make this game more about behaviorial analysis

 

[ExLight]

You guys are arguing apples and oranges.

I'm pretty sure I'm getting where Wiisp is going with this
I just don't agree, at least not yet

 

[ExLight]

actually, lynching the bomb D4 causes us to lose, we'd have to do D3
yea, no, I'd rather keep it around

 

[Pythag]

I'm pretty sure I'm getting where Wiisp is going with this
I just don't agree, at least not yet

Wiisp is literally advocating for the mafia, and you respond with - it's sub optimal. lol.

Wiisp what's stopping you from doing behavioral analysis toDay?

 

[Wiisp]

I'm not advocating for the mafia, that's against my win con, I just want a more interesting game state that doesn't rely on the bomb winning or lose the game for either town or the wolves

 

[ExLight]

actually, wait a second

 

[ExLight]

can someone help me with calculating the events, I think something isn't right

 

[Xivii]

definitely a really good chance that Z is just town there (or big tinfoil scum buds with Wisp I guess) so that makes the both of them look a lot better imo

Ah I see. You were town reading wisp for the point, but Z being scum invalidated the point, but not the reasoning, so you still town read Wisp. The unvote is what threw me off. I wasn't making the connection behind why Z being scum led to you unvoting Wisp.

definitely a really good chance that Z is just town there (or big tinfoil scum buds with Wisp I guess) so that makes the both of them look a lot better imo

The "tinfoil" speculation here doesn't make sense though. Why would Wisp being scum have anything to do with UPs behavior toward Z? The point Wisp brought up is good regardless of his alignment. If he were scum, that wouldn't make the reasoning itself invalid.

Vote: funnier

I'm confident on this. Ex isn't playing like someone that is going to flip red. Wisp has been obvtown today and he was spewed by UP based on the different way he treated the Lore and Z25 wagons. Kary has been brief but astute. Similar to Osies early play, it comes off to me as coming from a solving mindset. Rax is the toughest call to make. His voting pattern is suspicious, but his big D1 reads post was really good and I have a hard time seeing those notes as coming from scum. I also felt good about his posting last night. Funniers reasoning in the last quote I posted above does not come from a town mindset.

 

[Wiisp]

I mean I'm still reading
I think the last wolf is in funnier/raxxel/Ex
I am trying to conclude which one though

 

[ExLight]

can someone help me with calculating the events, I think something isn't right

expecting scum to hit the bomb is a waste of time because we'll have to lynch Z25 by N4

 

[ExLight]

SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE DECISIONS (keeping Z25):

=======

Lynching the bomb earlier (D2 or now):
(D4) 3v/1s > (N4) 2v/1s > (D5) 1v/1s - Parity!

We can not mislynch twice, no luck intervenes with the game

=======

Not Lynching the bomb + scum hits it:
(D4) 1b+2v/2s - we're forced to lynch Z25 > (N4) 1b+2v/1s

Scenario a)
If scum knows who the bomb is they hit it 100%; bomb hat to pick scum out of the three remaining people (67% of town losing)

Scenario b)
If scum doesn't know who the bomb is they have a 33% chance of hitting it, but if they do the bomb has a 67% of hitting town (33%*67% = 22% of town losing)

We can not mislynch twice; but our chances of not losing can be either 32% or 78%

=======

Not Lynching the bomb + scum doesn't hit it N4:
(D4) 1b+2v/2s - we're forced to lynch Z25 > (N4) 1b+2v/1s > (D5) 1b+1v/1s
Bomb claims, we guarantee a draw if we mislynch; or we guarantee a win if we lynch correctly

 

[ExLight]

SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE DECISIONS (lynching Z25 today):

If the bomb survives until D4:
(D2) 1b+6v/2s > (N2) 1b+5v/1s > (D3) 1b+4v/1s > (N3) 1b+3v/1s > (D4) 1b+2v/1s

If we lynch correctly (25%) we win
If we lynch the bomb (25%) we'll have a 67% chance of losing and 33% chance of winning;

If we mislynch a vanilla (N5) 1b+1v/1s (50%) we'll have a 50% chance of scum hitting the bomb during the night (if it hasn't claimed), and 50% chance of the bomb hitting scum; if scum hits vanilla we get at least a draw (so, in this scenario, a 50% of a draw, 25% of winning, 25% of losing).

In this scenario we can afford to mislynch only once

========

If the bombs gets mislynched before D4 (aka D3 because that's the only thing in between):
(D2) 1b+6v/2s > (N2) 1b+5v/1s > (D3) 1b+4v/1s

well that's pretty much the same scenario from the first example; we get to try two mislynches, no luck factor involved

 

[ExLight]

If the bombs gets mislynched before D4 (aka D3 because that's the only thing in between):
(D2) 1b+6v/2s > (N2) 1b+5v/1s > (D3) 1b+4v/1s

20% chance of winning (hitting scum), or 80% of hitting town and us going to: (N3) 0b+3v/1s > (D4) 2v/1s, which means a 3-way LyLo

well that's pretty much the same scenario from the first example; we get to try two mislynches, no luck factor involved

I think I missed the middle bit :excuseme:
in this one the D3 lynch is harder to find scum, but the D4 lynch has a bit of better chances

 

[ExLight]

well, that's it I think; which scenario is your favorite and why, I guess

I'm personally still hanging with the second scenario in the "keeping Z25" alive because on top of two tries to mislynch we can still not lose if we get lucky; as opposed to other scenarios where we only have one mislynch+luck or two mislynch+no luck

 

[Xivii]

I'm with the scenario of lynching Funnier, he claiming scum in twilight. Hunter then claiming and targeting Z, and Z shooting hunter to end the game.

 

[ExLight]

I'm with the scenario of lynching Funnier, he claiming scum in twilight. Hunter then claiming and targeting Z, and Z shooting hunter to end the game.

that's a really optimistic scenario and I'd be happy if that happened

 

[Pythag]

That sounds very clean

 

[funnier6]

Ah I see. You were town reading wisp for the point, but Z being scum invalidated the point, but not the reasoning, so you still town read Wisp. The unvote is what threw me off. I wasn't making the connection behind why Z being scum led to you unvoting Wisp.

I’m really wondering how you or anyone still has the idea that I voted wiisp seriously when it was obvious I did not, and I explicitly clarified it was not a good three or four times because wiisp didn’t get it. I didn’t need and didn’t have any reason to unvote, they were unconnected