Social Social Thread - Please Read Last Post

[Scoliosis Jones]

While the rumors circulating around Banjo & Kazooie have been the best indication they may be in, it's helpful to remind ourselves that they are still just rumors. Same with Erdrick. People should not mistake likely chances with certainty, which has recent history of ending in disappointment. It's special in Banjo & Kazooie's case because of how much of a pipe dream many thought it was not too long ago. It's a much further jump from virtually impossible to being considered likely, than in the case of Erdrick, going from possible to likely. And I think that huge change can inflate people's expectations regarding the duo's chances.

It's also been interesting seeing the flip with Erdrick and Banjo, despite both having similar evidence* (e.g., the word of insiders), especially since unlike Steve, they're not at odds with each other. Despite being a big fan, I'm still taking the possibility the insiders are mistaken, to lessen the shock if it's not true. And that's been difficult, especially given rational and otherwise skeptical insider's seeming consensus around Banjo. I wonder how much is because there's so much evidence in Banjo & Kazooie's favor, publicly and privately available, and how much of it is group think. We'll find out soon enough.

*It's remarkable how closely they align. Insiders: Verge for both Erdrick and Banjo, Tansut for Erdrick, Shinobi for Banjo. Speculative evidence: Datamined Brave for Erdrick, Datamined Rare spirits for Banjo. They mirror each other in a lot of ways.

I appreciate you for being so calm in this entire scenario. I can imagine being a Banjo fan, and staring this down has to be hard in preparing for either scenario.

I hope both Erdrick and Banjo get revealed, because then we can put it all behind us.
—-
Also, not that it means much but Jovahexeon Joranvexeon the only other things i’ve not really leaked, but thrown out there were:

1) Box theory was real (was ferociously called stupid/deluded)
2) Not to trust the Steve leaks (wasn’t really called stupid or anything, but some folks ignored it)

Both of those were based on information I received.

Basically, I hear stuff from folks who sometimes hear stuff. I’m the only person left willing to at least put out a warning to dampen hype/stop hopes from getting crushed.

My friends have no reason to doubt Erdrick, so I see no reason to doubt Erdrick. If I get a reason to doubt it, I would report it.

After all, I don’t really care necessarily who is in the game as long as it’s fun, and this game is one of the most fun i’ve ever played.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

One thing is how Smash handles codenames and other is how MK handles them. Brave can be used as a noun and is used in the translation from Japanese to English for Yuusha, Jack and Doyle only need to be linked to Joker and Arsene respectively. Jack can be used with Joker in a couple of ways like card suites, one of the multiple aliases of DC's Joker (Jack Napier) or Actor allusion (Jack Nicholson) and Doyle for Arthur Conan Doyle. Codenames are not meant to be found and it could be something simple or something complex but it all depends on the perception of whom makes them.

Point stands that the codenames are entirely inconsistent and aren't a pattern to work with.

We know jack-all of what Brave means. And exactly right, it's perception-based. Which is why it's a lot more vague because we can't really tell at what it could mean. We don't know what on earth they're thinking, which makes the codename all the more useless as remote evidence.

We have no actual evidence here. Just rumors about two characters. The rumors are actually from credible people, so they're more useful and likely were from insiders who saw or heard something concrete. The datamine is also all over the place with weird stats for Brave that don't even match Edrick that well. And those stats can be changed too, making them just as useless as the codename.

 

[BlueMonk]

Just like it was a point against Joker or Bayo?

Persona 5 did great in the West, and Bayo specifically did very well in the ballot in Europe and North America.

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

Out of what I have seen, Verg is very hit or miss when it comes to this type of stuff.

 

[Ace C.R.O.S.S.]

I believe in Phoenix Wright.

Ah, i see you're a man of culture as well....

 

[Opossum]

Out of what I have seen, Verg is very hit or miss when it comes to this type of stuff.

Literally the only thing Vergeben got wrong as far as Smash (out of the stuff that actually mattered) was Minecraft content.

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

Literally the only thing Vergeben got wrong as far as Smash (out of the stuff that actually mattered) was Minecraft content.

Emphasis on “out of what I’ve seen.” I don’t keep up to date on leaks usually, so I wasn’t sure if he got something wrong that I had missed.

 

[Aurane]

erdrick or banjo?

who do you believe, folks?

I believe in Santa Claus.

 

[Cosmic77]

Regarding sales of BK and DQ, remember that comparisons are hard to do and in most cases come in DQ favor if only due to being a series with titles being constantly released on its 30 year history. Both DQVIII in 2004 and DQIX in 2009 surpassed a million units on the west and the DS port of DQVI surpassed Golden Sun Dark Dawn and Issac is one of the most popular characters in the fandom, which means that sales have little to do with online popularity. The closest I would think of an equivalent in the west for DQ sales/genre wise it would be Halo due to how predominant the FPS are here and the sales of both franchises being around the same. Popularity-wise is difficult to measure.

BK has a lot more limited appeal that people think of due to the most popular games being the N64 ones and anything after that never reaching the same level of popularity, people overestimate how well known the pair is but at the same time due to Joker and Bayo being in the game already there's nothing that says that the character must be a juggernaut to be in Smash Bros.

Even though I'd personally prefer getting only really iconic third-party characters who just about everyone would recognize (Sonic, Pac-Man, etc.), I think Sakurai's pretty much shot down that idea following Bayo and Joker. People don't need to go out of their way to prove Banjo is well-known because it probably doesn't matter to begin with. I suppose you could argue he's less likely due to poorer sales than DQ, but his massive popularity in the Smash fanbase more than makes up for that anyway.

This. People stopped believing Vergeben for a long time but now he's credible again for saying Banjo's in?

Maybe it's because not on the Banjo hype train, but I'm still doubtful myself.

Maybe we'll see it really late in the fighter pass, but I still don't know what he's talking about with this Minecraft content he keeps holding on to. No one's really jumped on board with him yet, and he's been saying this since May 2018.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I'm pretty confident both Erdrick and Banjo are in, the only question is which of the two we'll see at E3. Given the recency of the rumors I think it'll be Banjo, even if I don't think he's Brave it just makes sense given the timing of the leaks, but regardless of who it is I'm certain the other one will come further down the line. Would love if they announced both and we're left in the dark again for a while, although I doubt it with how Sakurai's statement was worded.

 

[AquaSol]

Idk, I feel like it’s just Erdrick and the Banjo Boys are gonna be disappointed.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

When today do you guys think Sabi will come out with said leak for DLC?

 

[Cosmic77]

Literally the only thing Vergeben got wrong as far as Smash (out of the stuff that actually mattered) was Minecraft content.

As of last week, he's still sticking with his claim that Minecraft will have content in Smash Bros.

If he's wrong, that's just one hit against a nearly flawless record in Smash. Still though, he's a large part of why Steve gained a little genuine, sincere support during speculation, and now Steve supporters are in doubt of whether or not it's real.

Idk, I feel like it’s just Erdrick and the Banjo Boys are gonna be disappointed.

To be fair, I was the same way one year ago with Ridley. Not all things are too good to be true.

 

[Deleted member]

Vergeben is an *** I won't deny that but at the same time he gets legit info from time to time.

Just like it was a point against Joker or Bayo?

One thing is how Smash handles codenames and other is how MK handles them. Brave can be used as a noun and is used in the translation from Japanese to English for Yuusha, Jack and Doyle only need to be linked to Joker and Arsene respectively. Jack can be used with Joker in a couple of ways like card suites, one of the multiple aliases of DC's Joker (Jack Napier) or Actor allusion (Jack Nicholson) and Doyle for Arthur Conan Doyle. Codenames are not meant to be found and it could be something simple or something complex but it all depends on the perception of whom makes them.

Not judging him as a person.

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

Idk, I feel like it’s just Erdrick and the Banjo Boys are gonna be disappointed.

Implying that the Steve fans won’t be disappointed.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Literally the only thing Vergeben got wrong as far as Smash (out of the stuff that actually mattered) was Minecraft content.

Wasn't he also wrong about an Square rep being revealed at the VGA?

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

Not judging him as a person.

To be fair you made it sound like you were. You said that he was full of hot crap. Not his leaks or anything like that.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

All this fighting about Smash when the real question is how moe will E3 be?

 

[Opossum]

Wasn't he also wrong about an Square rep being revealed at the VGA?

Note I said "things that mattered."

Considering Joker and Erdrick were seemingly developed simultaneously, either could have been confirmed.

"Enjoy my good friend Shulk" wasn't a point against the Gematsu leak being real.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

If there’s anything that proves to me that the Smash fanbase will flock to what they want to believe, it’s the Box theory and Grinch leak.

I was called stupid (literally) for saying Nintendo would accidentally leak the roster total through a “mock-up” box. This being said, even though they leaked Mario Tennis characters prior to them being revealed through a gift bag with icons on it.

I too almost bought into the Grinch leak. However, it didn’t have Incineroar on it, so I was extremely confused. After some time, and discussion with friends who know more, it was clearly not real. That’s why I told folks to temper expectations to avoid salt.

As things usually go, the salt still flowed through the fanbase, because sure enough there’s “no way that isn’t real!”

I am not fed information directly from leakers, so I myself am not a leaker in the sense of Vergeben or anybody else. I actually have messaged Vergeben in regard to information at one point and received a reply.

The insider scene is a bit larger than one might think, and even though I did those things i’m not even really a part of it.

During Wii U, I, along with other users, were fed info that Mii Fighters and Palutena were coming on E3. That leak was also called out because Shulk wasn’t revealed when it claimed he would, but it still got everything right. The Gematsu leak was real as far as i’m concerned, but with outdated information.

Anyway, I love Smash, and I love there community. That doesn’t mean the community doesn’t have flaws when it comes to character speculation. People want who they want, and will look for reasons to show insiders are frauds, or that a character that appears to be in the works isn’t.

More than anything this stuff with Banjo has nothing to do with Erdrick, and if Erdrick isn’t in, we will find out about it.

 

[Deleted member]

To be fair you made it sound like you were. You said that he was full of hot crap. Not his leaks or anything like that.

As in the things he says are hot crap. If I was seeing he was hot crap I would have simply said “He’s hot crap,”

 

[Deleted member]

Persona 5 did great in the West, and Bayo specifically did very well in the ballot in Europe and North America.

Now you're using two different metrics to compare them sales and popularity in the ballot, still in the grand scheme of things both franchises are quite small WW and they could have easily gone for other popular franchises.

Plus like I mentioned before, DQ had a few million sellers already. While not on the same level of FF or Pokemon, its still one of the best selling JRPG series in the west.

 

[Teeb147]

Now you're using two different metrics to compare them sales and popularity in the ballot, still in the grand scheme of things both franchises are quite small WW and they could have easily gone for other popular franchises.

Plus like I mentioned before, DQ had a few million sellers already. While not on the same level of FF or Pokemon, its still one of the best selling JRPG series in the west.

Ooo you changed your name back (well fused them)

 

[Deleted member]

Dang, an interesting timeline.
Almost everyone is obsolete, because Erdrick and Banjo.
R.I.P Steve, but oh well.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

If there’s anything that proves to me that the Smash fanbase will flock to what they want to believe, it’s the Box theory and Grinch leak.

I was called stupid (literally) for saying Nintendo would accidentally leak the roster total through a “mock-up” box. This being said, even though they leaked Mario Tennis characters prior to them being revealed through a gift bag with icons on it.

I too almost bought into the Grinch leak. However, it didn’t have Incineroar on it, so I was extremely confused. After some time, and discussion with friends who know more, it was clearly not real. That’s why I told folks to temper expectations to avoid salt.

As things usually go, the salt still flowed through the fanbase, because sure enough there’s “no way that isn’t real!”

I am not fed information directly from leakers, so I myself am not a leaker in the sense of Vergeben or anybody else. I actually have messaged Vergeben in regard to information at one point and received a reply.

The insider scene is a bit larger than one might think, and even though I did those things i’m not even really a part of it.

During Wii U, I, along with other users, were fed info that Mii Fighters and Palutena were coming on E3. That leak was also called out because Shulk wasn’t revealed when it claimed he would, but it still got everything right. The Gematsu leak was real as far as i’m concerned, but with outdated information.

Anyway, I love Smash, and I love there community. That doesn’t mean the community doesn’t have flaws when it comes to character speculation. People want who they want, and will look for reasons to show insiders are frauds, or that a character that appears to be in the works isn’t.

More than anything this stuff with Banjo has nothing to do with Erdrick, and if Erdrick isn’t in, we will find out about it.

There's also how the box art of Fire Emblem Warriors leaked multiple characters too.

I remember being insulted for saying "They aren't just going to announce 7 characters" with the only decent rebuttal being "Well it's a game for the fans so of course there'll be fanservice hahaha stupid Gwen"

 

[CosmicQuark]

I appreciate you for being so calm in this entire scenario. I can imagine being a Banjo fan, and staring this down has to be hard in preparing for either scenario.

I hope both Erdrick and Banjo get revealed, because then we can put it all behind us.

And thank you for the words of encouragement. It's been a rough decade for Banjo & Kazooie fans (perhaps not as rough as Conker's). Would be nice after all these years, all the false hope and dead ends, to finally have a character I once thought was impossible become a reality. Or in Sakurai's words, making the impossible, possible.

Literally the only thing Vergeben got wrong as far as Smash (out of the stuff that actually mattered) was Minecraft content.

And it still could end up being true. It's telling that he always said content, too uncertain to say a Minecraft character would be in. And given Sega got Mii costumes along with Joker, I can see if Banjo's in, Microsoft getting costumes, including Minecraft. I think the only thing he admits being wrong about is a Minecraft boss, which ended up being Rathalos. And I'd say he also got SE rep at the Game Awards wrong. Not perfect, but still good track record for Smash. Though, given he's accused of piggybacking off of reliable insiders, while that's still a good sign for Banjo, I'd rather not rely on Verge.

(and then Erdrick gets announced at the Game Awards 2019 as the last character /s)

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So do you think they'll add a Boss Rush mode to the game in an update? The materials are all there with the hands, six other bosses and the two Story bosses. All that's needed is a rest area and they can simple add a teleporter and heart containers to battlefield.

 

[BlueMonk]

Now you're using two different metrics to compare them sales and popularity in the ballot, still in the grand scheme of things both franchises are quite small WW and they could have easily gone for other popular franchises.

Plus like I mentioned before, DQ had a few million sellers already. While not on the same level of FF or Pokemon, its still one of the best selling JRPG series in the west.

I used popularity in the ballot because she won the ballot. She's obviously popular in the west if she won a popularity poll like that. I'm not going to keep talking about this, I've already put my opinions out there.

 

[Deleted member]

Ooo you changed your name back (well fused them)

Yup, did a fusion for E3!

 

[Cosmic77]

I used popularity in the ballot because she won the ballot. She's obviously popular in the west if she won a popularity poll like that. I'm not going to keep talking about this, I've already put my opinions out there.

She didn't exactly "win", but she supposedly did very well. Although, it seems like Sakurai made a decision just a few weeks after the ballot started. No telling how consistent that popularity would've been.

On a similar note, I'm glad we're not doing another ballot. Looking back, it probably wasn't the best idea, especially if Sakurai wasn't planning on adding someone with Ridley or K. Rool's levels of popularity.

 

[TheMightyP]

Remember when Nintendo accidentaly leaked Lucario and Puff in Brawl, and then Ganondorf in Smash 4 (not like he was even going anywhere), and then some form of Castlevania content in Ultimate?

I bet that they'll screw up again and end up leaking something for E3.

 

[Deleted member]

And thank you for the words of encouragement. It's been a rough decade for Banjo & Kazooie fans (perhaps not as rough as Conker's). Would be nice after all these years, all the false hope and dead ends, to finally have a character I once thought was impossible become a reality. Or in Sakurai's words, making the impossible, possible.




And it still could end up being true. It's telling that he always said content, too uncertain to say a Minecraft character would be in. And given Sega got Mii costumes along with Joker, I can see if Banjo's in, Microsoft getting costumes, including Minecraft. I think the only thing he admits being wrong about is a Minecraft boss, which ended up being Rathalos. And I'd say he also got SE rep at the Game Awards wrong. Not perfect, but still good track record for Smash. Though, given he's accused of piggybacking off of reliable insiders, while that's still a good sign for Banjo, I'd rather not rely on Verge.

(and then Erdrick gets announced at the Game Awards 2019 as the last character /s)

Did Verge actually confused Rathalos for Ender Dragon? or is it the fanbase attributing the MC boss to be a mistake from Vergeben due to Ender Dragon being the most notorious (if not the only as far as I know) MC boss?

 

[Bee Card]

Literally the only thing Vergeben got wrong as far as Smash (out of the stuff that actually mattered) was Minecraft content.

Not if a minecraft content is with Banjo

 

[Gentlepanda]

sonic hedgehog

Spoiler

sonic hedgehog

 

[SnakeFighter64]

sonic hedgehog

View attachment 226808

sonic hedgehog

Is that really what he’s gonna look like, or is that someone ****ing around?

 

[Cosmic77]

sonic hedgehog

View attachment 226808

sonic hedgehog

At this point, I'm seriously wondering if the Sonic movie is part of a secret conspiracy to destroy Sonic's name make Sega go bankrupt.

Is that really what he’s gonna look like, or is that someone ****ing around?

It's a fake. The real one looks more like the Sonic we all know.

 

[Bee Card]

Is that really what he’s gonna look like, or is that someone ****ing around?

It's a fake picture but it's really near the reality ^^'

 

[CosmicQuark]

Did Verge actually confused Rathalos for Ender Dragon? or is it the fanbase attributing the MC boss to be a mistake from Vergeben due to Ender Dragon being the most notorious (if not the only as far as I know) MC boss?

Not quite sure. I remember reading about that possible mix up, I think it was Verge saying it himself, though with a quick lookup, I can't seem to find a post from him himself, just people claiming that was the mix up. So perhaps I mixed that up.

EDIT:
Perhaps I was thinking of this one, though he doesn't mention specifics.

The Minecraft boss was a mix of actual information a source had jumping the gun assuming it was in at that point as the content during the first datamine.

 

[SnakeFighter64]

Go home ERB. You’re drunk

 

[Deleted member]

sonic hedgehog

Spoiler

View attachment 226808

sonic hedgehog

I already saw that art, and is this legit actually going through testing?
Edit: ...