DeLux
Player that used to be Lux
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2010
- Messages
- 9,311
It's hard to really make this point objectively of "what we want it to look like" when that "we" assumes some level of consensus. By virtue of having debate on the topic, there's at least some opposition; so "we" could mean anywhere from "you and the entire world minus myself" or "you and your best friend". On a normative level, one preference isn't inherently more valid than the other minus situations of clear overcentralization or degeneration into random chance, so better to be as judicious as possible in making changes and preserve as much of the game as possible. Given that the game isn't even out yet and we don't know to the extent at which various elements will impact the game, it's hard to make the argument for a variety of reasons on anything being overcentralizing or degenerating into random chance.Anything we do will have wide-ranging effects on the metagame. it doesn't mean anything to say that something would change the game too much, because we're already creating the competitive scene to look like what we want it to look in the first place.
Mathematical probability doesn't support this, assuming equally skilled players. Let's take this and put it to a hypothetical test assuming the following:I think you'll find that the player who wins the set-starting RPS for first stage choice will have an alarmingly high win rate under these rules; there's no bigger advantage in a set than going up 1-0. The issue with the tennis/volleyball comparison is, of course, that you're still you and the court is still the court, no matter who serves first.
1. Player 1 has won game 1
2. Counter pick stages have a 75% win rate and the opponent has a 25% win rate (note, this number is arbitrary and used as a filler to prove a point, the same principle would hold true mathematically with degree being determined by how much you deviate from 50/50)
3. Game 2 is played on Player 2's counter pick, meaning Player 1 has 25% win rate and a 75% loss rate
If Game 3 is played on Player 1's counterpick as would happen in the current counterpicking system, Player 1's expected set win rate would be approximately 81.25%. If Game 3 is played on the neutral stage as I'm suggesting, Player 1's expected set win rate would be approximately 62.5%.
I agree with you that winning game 1 is a huge advantage (side note: I've written a thread or two on discussing how to combat the overcentralization of winning game 1 as a prerequisite to winning a set), but the proposal actually helps mitigate the issue, not make it worse. I actually find it ironic that I've seen two respected opinions look at the system and come out with different conclusions on who has the advantage in the proposed sytem.
This is a fair point, and I agree that removing the character counter picking nature would come at the cost of some diversity in terms of having guaranteed positive match ups for the counterpicking player. However, curtailing counterpick advantages has the advantage of decentralizing the need to win the neutral game in the match. Definitely a trade-off, but the beauty is that the system I'm proposing would function nearly as well assuming we retain the character counterpicking.(Side note, one player picking a stage followed by a blind pick is bound to bring up all sorts of scenarios where you counterpick yourself into a bad matchup when you're supposed to have the advantage. There's a reason why we use 1. loser picks stage 2. winner picks character 3. loser picks character)
Point taken, and don't get me wrong, I agree that "removing redundancy" as a value to adhere to has its merits (eg: a good reason to not counter every iteration of For Glory Stages as final destination in Smash). Apologies if it didn't come across in translation, but what I was more getting at was that we're not really able to predict the exact ramifications of say, having 1 triplat vs. 2 triplats vs. 3 triplats vs. 4 triplats the same way we can predict the ramification of having 1 triplat vs. 50 triplats. That doesn't even start getting into how could we determine which triplat stage is more valid as the platonic form of triplats without proper testing of having them all legal. Is Yoshi's Story more pure than Battlefield, even though it's tiny? Is Dreamland less Battlefield, even though it's been a legal stage in just as many games as Battlefield? If picking "the other battlefield" overcentralizes, there are a variety of tactics that we could use to curtail that, but all I'm saying is I'm not sure it's warranted to outright just ban them from out of the box. All of this is also predicated on the fact that picking a tri-plat becomes an overly dominant strategy if not a strictly dominant one, and also asssumes playing on said stages would be bad for the game as a whole. Especially given we're getting whole new knockback systems and mechanics, for all we know some other "criteria/group" of stages could end up being even worse.Removing redundant platform layouts lets us use our existing system without centralizing the game around characters that are good on triplats. Why fix what isn't broken when we can fix what is?
And "all of these stages function identically to Battlefield" is not arbitrary lmao. You can't really compare with Melee either, stage legality is dependent on both the other stages available and their potential for characters to abuse them. If WiiU had Melee's stages and nothing else, I bet they'd cut FoD/YS/DL and go down to 3 stages rather than have 4 triplats for ladder combos in a 6 stage list.
Going back to this, "there are too many legal stages that play extremely similarly and give you a huge advantage" is another way of saying "element is overcentralizing". Full List Partial Striking has a whole host of problems, but one of the worst is this: "we have 6 triplats" means either a) we're wasting time banning 6 stages just so a triplat isn't guaranteed to anyone who wants one, or b) a triplat is guaranteed to anyone who wants one.
The overarching point, I agree that we should sift through that quagmire if we HAVE to. But if we don't, we probably shouldn't. All I'm suggesting is that without any clear results pointing the way , I don't think we have to YET.
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