Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Please do not post just links. Describe the context of the link itself.

Also, please do not double post. Edit your messages instead.

 

[Koopaul]

Honestly I think there is no way of truly knowing who the SE rep will be at the point. There seems to be a lot of confusion and uncertainty among the leakers.

It could be something NO ONE expected.

 

[Momotsuki]

Honestly I think there is no way of truly knowing who the SE rep will be at the point. There seems to be a lot of confusion and uncertainty among the leakers.

It could be something NO ONE expected.

Part of me wants it to be Zack as a cloud echo just because of the reaction. I'd also be devastated too.

 

[Z25]

Oh I just remembered

Clock’s ticking on the September 24th Smash Direct leak which said Heihachi and Lloyd, two characters also in the ProtonMail part 1 leak with and Waddle Dee

If the NEW marker over characters disappears in tonight’s update we may indeed get Heihachi and Lloyd and a new Smash direct

Not counting on it tho

What markers? And how’s it relate to a leak?

 

[Paperchampion23]

Honestly I think there is no way of truly knowing who the SE rep will be at the point. There seems to be a lot of confusion and uncertainty among the leakers.

It could be something NO ONE expected.

At the point I'm more inclined to think Verg will come out and say the name before anyone truly leaks the character.

Kinda wish he didn't care about his reputation tbh and just said the name he was given. Leaking isn't a profession.

 

[Momotsuki]

At the point I'm more inclined to think Verg will come out and say the name before anyone truly leaks the character.

Kinda wish he didn't care about his reputation tbh and just said the name he was given. Leaking isn't a profession.

Vergeben has a lot - and I do mean a LOT of people - who are waiting, frothing at the mouth for him to slip up and to have off with his head. He knows this, and that's why he's being so careful.

 

[Chrono.]

At the point I'm more inclined to think Verg will come out and say the name before anyone truly leaks the character.

Kinda wish he didn't care about his reputation tbh and just said the name he was given. Leaking isn't a profession.

Isn't because his sources could get in trouble?

 

[Narr]

Looks like Vergeben was lying when he said he didn't use 4chan...

(Merged consecutive post) If for whatever reason Square wanted to throw Geno and Mallow into a PS4 game, there's absolutely nothing stopping them from doing so, correct?

we don't know exactly how the ownership of SMRPG characters works exactly. could be solely square-enix, but it's also possibly owned jointly by the two in some way, so it's really hard to say

 

[Paperchampion23]

What markers? And how’s it relate to a leak?

Usually, a few days before new content is added ton the smash website, the "new" tabs over Characters, Stages and items will disappear, possibly prepping for the next content drop. I doubt it will happen now though, usually it happens like a week before.

 

[cothero]

Anything new?

Speak for yourself, I'd be extremely excited for Noctis or Squall.

That leak had Lloyd and Heihachi right? Who else were there?

Another FF rep? I don't think so. Square is kinda strict with FF intelectual property in smash, they just authorized 2 songs in the game, for f**** sake. Not even a trophy from another character, assist trophy, NOTHING. Maybe we'll get some other FF stuff in Ultimate, but i'm not too optmistic.

 

[Narr]

Isn't because his sources could get in trouble?

no, he wants to release the name he got, but he's worried about his reputation so he's triple-checking

 

[Luigi The President]

no, he wants to release the name he got, but he's worried about his reputation so he's triple-checking

Mind showing me where he says this?

 

[Paperchampion23]

Isn't because his sources could get in trouble?

No, that's what that other leaker Verg trusts is saying. Verg had a random source tell him a name, but has since said he doesn't want to say the name simply because he's scared of the backlash

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

Anything new?


Another FF rep? I don't think so. Square is kinda strict with FF intelectual property in smash, they just authorized 2 songs in the game, for f**** sake. Not even a trophy from another character, assist trophy, NOTHING. Maybe we'll get some other FF stuff in Ultimate, but i'm not too optmistic.

It's worth noting the soundtest specified Final Fantasy content as Final Fantasy VII, meaning that there probably ain't anything from outside it.

Now this would probably cover the compilation of final fantasy vii, as well, but I still don't expect much of that, sadly.

 

[Narr]

Mind showing me where he says this?

here

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Okay, I hate to ask the obvious, but has anyone DMed Vergeben about this idea? I know he's flooded, but seriously, if everyone assumes he's been contacted already, then there's a chance no one actually did because of assumption.

People should probably stop doing that, Vergeben recently made a post (I think in one of the deleted Gamefaqs threads as I can't find it) saying how he gets a ton of questions about every character and every thing all the time that he usually can't answer, while making it clear that if he has something new to say, he'll do so on his own inhibition.

These leaks have been getting out of hand recently, so I've gathered a list of every character leaked by the following catalogue of leakers:
Vergeben: Decidedly the most reliable of sources here, Vergeben has an amazing track record for both this game and several others. Among many other things, he announced that Snake and Ice Climbers would return, that there would be no cuts from Smash 4, and that Ridley, Isabelle, and Simon Belmont would be added. Due to his reliability, anything he claimed would be in below is in green.
LaPailleDor (1): A leaker on French forum jeuxvideo, LaPailleDor claimed that Chrom, K Rool, Richter, and Simon would be playable, as well as Dracula as a boss and stage morph being an option, all later coming true. However, the mods of the forum claim that these were faked.
LaPailleDor (2): A 4chan leaker who claims to be LaPailleDor, giving several pieces of evidence of his identity.
WhisslBlank (1): More commonly known as the NeoGAF Leaker, WhisslBlank claimed that K Rool, Simon, and Chrom would be added.
WhisslBlank (2): A second NeoGAF account claiming to be WhisslBlank, offering possibly falsified evidence. As this is likely false, and the claim that Galacta Knight will be a Meta Knight echo is already soft-deconfirmed, anything that only he claimed will be in red.
Ken Leaker: A 4chan leaker who posted an image of Ken in the debug mode. This image has been proven time and time again to be watertight.
Loz18: A GameFAQs leaker who claimed that there would be a Smash direct in August that showed a full tour of the menus, that would show three modes, and that there would be a cutscene themed around heroes vs villains (which turned out to be K Rool's reveal trailer).
Senjougahara Hitagi: A leaker who has got several things right about other games. As Vergeben has backed up Senjougahara and claimed that the two share sources, leaks from them will also be in green.

[4] Ken: Vergeben, Ken Leaker (obviously), LaPailleDor (1), WhisslBlank (1)
[2] Geno: Vergeben, WhisslBlank (1)
[2] Isaac: LaPailleDor (1), WhisslBlank (1)
[2] Skull Kid: LaPailleDor (2), Loz18
[2] Sora: Vergeben, WhisslBlank (1)
[2] Steve: Vergeben, Senjougahara Hitagi
[1] Ayumi Tachibani: LaPailleDor (2)
[1] Bandai Namco Character: WhisslBlank (2)
[1] Black Shadow: LaPailleDor (1)
[1] Dixie Kong: Loz18
[1] Felix: WhisslBlank (2)
[1] Galacta Knight: WhisslBlank (2)
[1] Incineroar: Vergeben
[1] Katalina (or other Granblue Character): Senjougahara Hitagi
[1] Monster Hunter: WhisslBlank (2)
[1] Medusa: LaPailleDor (2)
[1] Ninten: LaPailleDor (2)
[1] Reimu Hakurei: LaPailleDor (2)
[1] Sable Prince: WhisslBlank (2)
[1] Shadow: WhisslBlank (2)
[1] Soren: WhisslBlank (1)
[1] Terra: WhisslBlank (2)
Italicised Names indicates the leaker was not specific about the character, but there is reason to believe they refer to that character.

Not included is the Richter Leak, as the story behind it is extremely unlikely. It claims that Gothitelle and Gardevoir will be playable.

Your writeup is good, but remember that Vergeben has not officially backed up Steve at this time, he just claimed his sources said the Minecraft content could possibly entail a playable character, and that he heard murmurs of it being a thing from outside his Smash sources, while backing up that Hitagi is a legitimate leaker but not actually backing up his Smash claims. Vergeben's current stance on Steve is that it looks like something that could very well happen and people overlooked the possibility, but it is not something he is claiming will happen with his currently known information. Source 1 Source 2

 

[Potato_]

here's a leak we can really trust

Grug not trustworthy. Post wishes on star instead of real characters.

(on a sidenote this leak is hilarious yet also somehow incredibly good. That character list is great.)

 

[Dcas]

Theres something intriguing.

There are 73 days left till smash ultimate comes out. We are obviously getting one more direct where theyll explain stuff and reveal new characters, my safe bet is on november.

But if we are actually missing 8 characters i really, really doubt well get only more direct, i mean they announcing 8 CHARACTERS, the new mode, online stuff, AT, etc in only ONE direct sounds extremely unlikely. Which leds me to believe there are 3 possible scenarios:

-There's only one direct left but we'll get less than 8 characters.
-There's only one direct left BUT we'll get some characters announced before that direct, like some sort of trailers in certain event or such.
-There are 2 directs coming (very unlikely), where they can distribute the remaining stuff in 2 parts.

 

[Koopaul]

No, that's what that other leaker Verg trusts is saying. Verg had a random source tell him a name, but has since said he doesn't want to say the name simply because he's scared of the backlash

Backlash. Because he's afraid the infromation might be wrong or because he think the pick might be controversial?

Those can have great implications. Him worried that the source might be wrong implies that the SE rep is something that he thinks seems unlikely. Many people still feel Sora is unlikely due to legal concerns so it may be this.

If he's worried about backlash because the SE rep is controversial. Then it wouldn't be either Spra or Geno because those are both very popular characters. It would have to be someone very few people asked for or has a lot of haters.

Then there is the third possibility that it's both. A character Verg thinks sounds unlikely AND is a controversial pick. Someone like Slime or something.

Imagine the uproar if it was Slime! No one would believe Verg if he said it was Slime, and people would be so pissed if it ended up being true. That's a good reason not to mention the name of the character.

I'm not saying it's Slime I'm just using that as an example.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

People should probably stop doing that, Vergeben recently made a post (I think in one of the deleted Gamefaqs threads as I can't find it) saying how he gets a ton of questions about every character and every thing all the time that he usually can't answer, while making it clear that if he has something new to say, he'll do so on his own inhibition.

Fair enough I suppose.

 

[Nekoo]

Backlash. Because he's afraid the infromation might be wrong or because he think the pick might be controversial?

Those can have great implications. Him worried that the source might be wrong implies that the SE rep is something that he thinks seems unlikely. Many people still feel Sora is unlikely due to legal concerns so it may be this.

If he's worried about backlash because the SE rep is controversial. Then it wouldn't be either Spra or Geno because those are both very popular characters. It would have to be someone very few people asked for or has a lot of haters.

Then there is the third possibility that it's both. A character Verg thinks sounds unlikely AND is a controversial pick. Someone like Slime or something.

Imagine the uproar if it was Slime!

He's worried in case that characters doesn't happens and to not get attacked by it's fans/other parties.
He's been very cautious of his sources now, ever since people criticized him of pulling the trigger so fast

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Theres something intriguing.

There are 73 days left till smash ultimate comes out. We are obviously getting one more direct where theyll explain stuff and reveal new characters, my safe bet is on november.

But if we are actually missing 8 characters i really, really doubt well get only more direct, i mean they announcing 8 CHARACTERS, the new mode, online stuff, AT, etc in only ONE direct sounds extremely unlikely. Which leds me to believe there are 3 possible scenarios:

-There's only one direct left but we'll get less than 8 characters.
-There's only one direct left BUT we'll get some characters announced before that direct, like some sort of trailers in certain event or such.
-There are 2 directs coming (very unlikely), where they can distribute the remaining stuff in 2 parts.

8 characters? That's way too much. We're getting six maximum, including echoes. Our big five right now are:

• Ken
• Incineroar
• Shadow
• Sora
• Geno

Dixie Kong is a maybe in there, but has nothing to back her up.

5 more characters also fits into "a few more" counting K. Rool and Isabelle, as 7 is "a few characters," albeit the upper range for that.

 

[JustCallMeJon]

Oh yeah, if you want to see that Geno reference in Kingdom Hearts 3, here is a video to show you.

It is around 14:10 mins.

 

[Dcas]

8 characters? That's way too much. We're getting six maximum, including echoes. Our big five right now are:

• Ken
• Incineroar
• Shadow
• Sora
• Geno

Dixie Kong is a maybe in there, but has nothing to back her up.

5 more characters also fits into "a few more" counting K. Rool and Isabelle, as 7 is "a few characters," albeit the upper range for that.

Still even if its 5, don't you think these 5 newcomers, new mode, new details, stages, etc in only ONE DIRECT is way too much?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

8 characters? That's way too much. We're getting six maximum, including echoes. Our big five right now are:

• Ken
• Incineroar
• Shadow
• Sora
• Geno

Dixie Kong is a maybe in there, but has nothing to back her up.

5 more characters also fits into "a few more" counting K. Rool and Isabelle, as 7 is "a few characters," albeit the upper range for that.

I think 8 is actually a pretty reasonable amount. Including Echos that would round out to 80 fighters. That's a good number to stop at.

I'm thinking 4 more uniques and 4 more echos.

Sora I predict will be DLC if he makes it in.

 

[Untouch]

The E3 direct only had 2 characters announced, it isn't out of the ordinary. The August 8th direct really spoiled us.

 

[Luigi The President]

Still even if its 5, don't you think these 5 newcomers, new mode, new details, stages, etc in only ONE DIRECT is way too much?

We got 5 on 8.8 along with new details, reconfirmed stages, the whole shebang. Easily done in 30 minutes.

 

[Koopaul]

The E3 direct only had 2 characters announced, it isn't out of the ordinary. The August 8th direct really spoiled us.

3 if you count Inkling. She was revealed in a teaser but wasn't properly shown until E3.

 

[Luigi The President]

3 if you count Inkling. She was revealed in a teaser but wasn't properly shown until E3.

Which you shouldn't, because she was revealed before E3.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Backlash. Because he's afraid the infromation might be wrong or because he think the pick might be controversial?

Those can have great implications. Him worried that the source might be wrong implies that the SE rep is something that he thinks seems unlikely. Many people still feel Sora is unlikely due to legal concerns so it may be this.

If he's worried about backlash because the SE rep is controversial. Then it wouldn't be either Spra or Geno because those are both very popular characters. It would have to be someone very few people asked for or has a lot of haters.

Then there is the third possibility that it's both. A character Verg thinks sounds unlikely AND is a controversial pick. Someone like Slime or something.

Imagine the uproar if it was Slime! No one would believe Verg if he said it was Slime, and people would be so pissed if it ended up being true. That's a good reason not to mention the name of the character.

I'm not saying it's Slime I'm just using that as an example.

Remember the name of the SE character came from a "random guy" who he never knew prior, not from his actual established Smash sources; he does not know if this new source is legitimate, and there's been countless instances of people intentionally giving him wrong information (like Lupensko infamously telling him there would be no DK newcomers, which we only found out about because of Loz leaking his PM with Vergeben trying to find corroboration on that statement, who knows how much other people tried trolling him). As such, he's not releasing the name because who he heard the name from could just be another troll, it has nothing to do with him thinking the character is unlikely nor "controversial".

People should really just drop the whole "he knows the SE character" thing, it's nothing substantial at this time.

 

[Shroob]

We got 5 on 8.8 along with new details, reconfirmed stages, the whole shebang. Easily done in 30 minutes.

3 of which were Echo fighters though, who only had a 1 minute trailer each.

3 of these are newcomers, which would each need their own cinematic trailer.

 

[Arymle Roseanne]

8 characters? That's way too much. We're getting six maximum, including echoes. Our big five right now are:

• Ken
• Incineroar
• Shadow
• Sora
• Geno

Dixie Kong is a maybe in there, but has nothing to back her up.

5 more characters also fits into "a few more" counting K. Rool and Isabelle, as 7 is "a few characters," albeit the upper range for that.

I heard Dixie was mentioned by that leaker Verg but her status is unknown. Well I haven't lost any hope yet for her but my mindset of optimism says either base echo or semi clone/unique dlc for her situation(I tolerate either situation but the latter would be more satisfying to have her more in character) but if not then I live on. I'm going to be mature about this.

 

[Koopaul]

Which you shouldn't, because she was revealed before E3.

I know but she was shown at E3 as if they were showing her for the first time. "And now here's a new fighter!" Before that it was a teaser of her and Ultimate before we even knew what Ultimate even was. That makes that territory seem a little shakey.

 

[Luigi The President]

3 of which were Echo fighters though, who only had a 1 minute trailer each.

3 of these are newcomers, which would each need their own cinematic trailer.

Sora and Geno could very well share a cinematic.
Incineroar gets his own.

Shadow and Ken get revealed as Echoes.
I see no reason why it can't work.

 

[Narr]

the implication that every remaining new character will be revealed in a single direct is kind of weird to me. personally i think we'll get a standalone reveal in october similar to robin and then a smash direct or something along those lines in november, but that's just my gut talking

 

[The_Naraotor]

I bet my beard that we will have DLC
(I know it's not a huge bet)

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I heard Dixie was mentioned by that leaker Verg but her status is unknown. Well I haven't lost any hope yet for her but my mindset of optimism says either base echo or semi clone/unique dlc for her situation(I tolerate either situation but the latter would be more satisfying to have her more in character) but if not then I live on. I'm going to be mature about this.

Dixie was never mentioned by Vergeben at any point whatsover. It's more a point of speculation on my part.

Still even if its 5, don't you think these 5 newcomers, new mode, new details, stages, etc in only ONE DIRECT is way too much?

Reveal one in October, and you only have 4 to reveal alongside DLC in the last Smash Direct.

Start with a trailer, add the two echoes in the middle, end with a trailer. It fits perfectly.

Sora and Geno could very well share a cinematic.
Incineroar gets his own.

Shadow and Ken get revealed as Echoes.
I see no reason why it can't work.

This also works really well.

 

[Luigi The President]

Remember the name of the SE character came from a "random guy" who he never knew prior, not from his actual Smash sources; he does not know if this new source is legitimate, and there's been countless instances of people intentionally giving him wrong information (like Lupensko infamously telling him there would be no DK newcomers, which we only found out about because of Loz leaking his PM with Vergeben trying to find corroboration on that statement, who knows how much other people tried trolling him). As such, he's not releasing the name because who he heard the name from could just be another troll, it has nothing to do with him thinking the character is unlikely nor "controversial".

People should really just drop the whole "he knows the SE character" thing, it's nothing substantial at this time.

Thing is Verge went on to state he heard of the SE rep through a source who also leaked Simon/Isabelle and "doesn't have a habit of being wrong".

 

[SSB4Dojo]

Still even if its 5, don't you think these 5 newcomers, new mode, new details, stages, etc in only ONE DIRECT is way too much?

I know things are different this time around but the April smash direct before smash 4 release I believe was 30 minutes. It included only one newcomer (greninja) but announced like 10 poke balls pokemon, 6 returning fighters we didn’t know at that point as well as a good understanding of new things, stages for the games. I believe this was even the direct he showcased smash run for the first time. 30 minutes is a long time to discuss things. I mean, he discussed 4 fighters, Dracula’s castle, alucard and Dracula as a boss all within the first 7ish minutes of the August direct. It doesn’t take time to say much.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

I think there are a few possible ways to reveal several characters at in this timespan.

Let's just assume our roster is the largest known possible roster, ken, shadow, geno, sora, inceneroar and steve are all waiting to be revealed by nintendo.

Ken and Shadow: Reveal them inside a direct similar to how chrom and dark samus were with minor fanfare

Inceneroar: Reveal at a potential pokemon related event we don't know about, or as an opener to the final smash direct

Steve: Possibly be revealed at minecon, I'm not sure if minecon or nintendo would want to reveal steve there, but it's a pretty big minecraft related bombshell to drop right in the middle of smash hype season and probably the best known way a robin style surprise announcement will be seen.

Geno and Sora: Either bookends of a smash direct, or revealed together in a square enix double dose trailer that certainly would deliver the hype nessesary for a send off of the reveal season. Or perhaps, one gets a trailer, the other gets a DLC announcement a la mewtwo.

There are many variables, such as if any character gets a surprise robin style solo trailer reveal, or if Jon's "prediction" is correct and shadow is not an echo fighter, then he would possibly need a trailer too, which makes things a lot harder.

Overall, this is not a post saying they will all be in, this is just a guess as to how every known character that's been "leaked" with some degree of credibility to them could be shown in the space of 2-3 months.