Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Will]

Hell, one dude put me in their sig specifically to go "THIS PERSON IS THE TOXICITY OF SMASH BROS!"

i doubt that immensely

The Case for Minecraft Steve and the "Smash Bubble" effect​

Hello, and welcome to the fourth in a series of speculation posts written by your's truly. In this post I will be arguing about why Steve from Minecraft is likelier than many think, and why people are so quick to underestimate his chances. Lets jump into it:

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• Per the usual, this is nothing more than speculation. I know nothing more than anyone reading this, and I am not an absolute authority nor will I ever claim to be one. I'm simply a fan with a good mind for speculation who enjoys putting it to use.
  • As part of this, this is only speculation. I will not be addressing leaks of any sort. While I'll admit the serious idea of Steve was brought to me via leaks, I will be arguing for his likelihood outside of leaks.
• I'll also acknowledge my own bias towards Minecraft. Yes, I like Minecraft. Get your laughs out now if you have any. That being said, I have no personal stake in a potential Microsoft representative, and I believe that any of the three speculated choices (Steve, Banjo & Kazooie, and Master Chief) are amazing choices. I simply believe that the former of the three is more likely.

Spoiler: What is the "Smash Bubble?"

One of the most prominent arguments against Steve is that he's not a popular choice among fans, with speculators citing fan poll after fan poll to prove this. One GameFAQs user even said of polls like this,

Oh GameFAQs how you never cease to amuse me.

All of these polls fall into the same trap of being contained within the "Smash Bubble" as myself and others have coined it. What exactly is the "Smash Bubble" though? If I had to define it, I would as such:


While the contribution of these focused fans isn't to be ignored, as evidenced by K. Rool's immense Ballot presence in part due to the Kutthroat's Ballot Campaign and Sakurai's statements on Ridley and Geno, a flaw of the fanbase at large is a general insistence that those within the Smash Bubble are the only Smash Bros. fans and that by not catering to them specifically, Nintendo is making a mistake. This sentiment completely ignores other fanbases outside of the core fanbase which gave us picks such as Isabelle and Simon Belmont.

"But tehponycorn" you say, "Simon was a popular pick! Sakurai even said so himself!" Take a look at the many fan polls listed above and tell me how many Simon prominently appears on. The answer is 3. While 3/12 may seem like modest popularity, his votes total less than 1,000, and he's listed among many other, more popular third party characters. That hardly lines up with Sakurai's statement of Castlevania being "popular in player polls." So, there's a disconnect between what fan polls show and actual popularity? Why is this?

I propose an explanation in two parts:

First, all fan polls by nature fall prey to Voluntary Response Bias, defined as:

Every Smash fan poll cited majorly falls within the Smash Bubble because those within the Smash Bubble are most inclined to vote on polls like these. Granted, even the official Smash Ballot itself falls prey to this, and indeed those within the Smash Bubble would be much more inclined to vote in an official poll like this, but any bias within it is made up for by the Law of Large Numbers, defined as:

The official nature of the poll and the advertising conducted for it extended the reach of the poll to even casual fans, which is why it's so important to establish this disconnect. The largest, most recent Smash fan poll as of right now is the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, with over 50,000 votes. In comparison, the Smash Ballot collected 1.8 million votes (360 times more votes), making it much closer to the wants of the entire Smash Bros. fanbase, hence why picks like Simon Belmont can float by the core fanbase largely undetected.

Second, there exists a strong, silent majority of fans outside of the core fanbase that has sway in character picks. People tend to forget that Nintendo tries to market Smash Bros. for everyone, or at the very least, the largest amount of people possible. It doesn't matter if you're a child whose mom bought him a Switch for Christmas or someone who's been with them since the NES, so long as you're a fan of Nintendo you might as well be considered a part of the Smash Bros. fanbase. Naturally, the wider Nintendo fanbase is largely varied, and outside of the Smash Bubble exists many different demographics with different character desires. This is how we end up with picks like Isabelle, who caters to the larger, more casual fanbase who see Isabelle often.

Returning to the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, you'll notice that Sora and Phoenix Wright scored better than they typically do in other fan polls, taking 5th and 8th place respectively, and garnering a total 20,883 votes, equal to around 40% of votes in the final round. This is impressive for two characters usually overlooked within the Smash Bubble in favor of other, more popular speculation picks. The poll includes this interesting fact about them:

If a larger reddit fan poll was able to attract people outside of Reddit's r/SmashBros, then a poll as massive as the official Ballot would be able to attract people from all over, giving a skew towards the silent majority, as anyone could vote on it, even people outside of the regular Nintendo or Smash Bros. fanbase.

To make a long story short, there is a silent presence outside of the Smash Bubble. It is large and it is more powerful than many think. While our Smash Bubble is a prominent part of the fanbase, Nintendo has a much wider fanbase to appeal to as well, and the Smash Bubble isn't indicative of Smash Bros. fans in general.

Spoiler: Why a Microsoft Character?

Nintendo and Microsoft are closer than ever before as evidenced by both's positive stance towards Cross-Play through titles like Minecraft and Fortnite among others.

Hey @Xbox, since we can play together in @Minecraft now, did you want to build something? pic.twitter.com/LIylWy3yXZ

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) June 21, 2018

Our bodies are ready. What are we building?

— Xbox (@Xbox) June 21, 2018

While I have previously argued that Tweets from Nintendo of America mean little in the grand scheme as Nintendo of Japan is the one ultimately calling the shots, the most important thing here is Xbox's side and the interaction itself. From Xbox's side this is as official as it gets, and is evidence of a much wider business relationship between Microsoft and Nintendo that's been developing over the years. Phil Spencer has been very transparent about this as well, going on record in 2016 and 2018 to describe the positive relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft, to the point where he went to lunch with people from Nintendo during E3. Either that's pretense for negotiations, or Phil Spencer is legitimately close enough with Nintendo to get lunch with them casually.

Additionally, Phil Spencer (bless him for being so open) has been similarly transparent in his (and by association, Xbox's) willingness to get Banjo & Kazooie, another Microsoft character, into Smash Bros. in 2015 and 2018. While this is about another Microsoft character, it's not unreasonable to believe that similar sentiments would be extended to other Microsoft characters, Steve being included.

Nintendo and Microsoft have a good business relationship, and as far as we know the doors are open at Microsoft, so all Nintendo has to do is come to them for negotiations. The ability to bring in a Microsoft character would likely garner a reaction similar to when Sonic was revealed for Brawl, as both characters would be from competing console makers. The three main choices for a Microsoft character, being Banjo & Kazooie, Steve, and Master Chief, each carry their own merits and would be smart picks for DLC from a business and fan pleasing standpoint.

Spoiler: Why Steve from Minecraft?

It's Minecraft. 'Nuff said.

Being serious, My reasoning as to why Steve is more likely than the other two prominent Microsoft characters is simple: Minecraft is overwhelmingly popular Minecraft is the second best selling game of all time, selling 154 million copies and over the summer of 2018 had 91 million active players, which is more than what Fortnite had in September of the same year. Minecraft is also incredibly popular in Japan, topping the charts multiple times and selling over a million copies on the Playstation Vita, a fact that should really speak for itself. For a game that has legitimately been around for almost 10 years, Minecraft has withstood the test of time and proved itself to be a cornerstone of gaming culture as a whole (there's an entire section on Minecraft's cultural impact on its Wikipedia page). For one, Minecraft is a prominent example of indie gaming, originally being developed by one person on his own and gradually becoming bigger as its popularity increased. I would even say that Minecraft could arguably be considered the indie game, and at the very least shaped the basic structure of indie games releasing in beta versions and gradually becoming more complete since it was the first game to prominently do so.

The widespread appeal of Minecraft can't be understated. There's endless Minecraft merchandise including that of popular Minecraft Youtubers (imagine getting toys made after you for playing a video game). Minecraft is even used for education for some reason and it works, which is hard for edutainment games. The game's also received two prominent spin-offs, Minecraft Story Mode, made by TellTale Games at their peak, and Minecraft Dungeons, which is indicative of the series' wider popularity. Minecraft is also one of many prominent series to have it's own fan convention, MineCon, which regularly attracts thousands of fans and garners hundreds of thousands of millions of views online. I also can't fail to mention the many clones of Minecraft or unofficial merchandise that attempt to cash in on the popularity of the original game. Some of these get modest success, such as the Minecraft clones made for Wii U before the official release came out.

"But tehponycorn" you say "Steve isn't a popular character!"

One, refer to "What is the Smash Bubble?" as to why that argument isn't as valid as you think it is Two, you're wrong. At a Q&A at MineCon 2018, someone asked Minecraft developers if they thought Steve would be in Smash Bros., and a Mojang PR person who happened to be part of the panel responded, saying:

So, demand exists within the Minecraft community. Furthermore, Steve gained a reputation as a popular "meme" pick due to the high amount of requests for him by children on Miiverse, Nintendo's Social Media experiment platform. Returning to the idea of silent parts of the Smash fanbase existing outside of the Smash Bubble, I would say that there certainly exists a sizable group of people outside of core speculation websites that supports Steve and would voice said want given official outlets such as the Smash Ballot. It's important to consider the massive fanbase Minecraft has because by extension this means that Steve, in theory, has a massive fanbase behind his inclusion in Smash Bros. Steve is a safe bet from a business/sales standpoint as his inclusion could easily rope in sales of Switch consoles, Smash Bros., and/or DLC because Steve is in the game and there are a lot of people who would want to see him go against Mario and other iconic video game characters. There is a demand for Steve. It is underestimated by many, and that is a mistake.

What about the good old argument of "Sakurai bias?" Would Sakurai be inclined to include Steve if presented the idea of him by Nintendo or would he go out of his way to negotiate for him? I believe the answer to both of those questions is yes.

Let's take a look at the example of Joker. It's no small fact that Sakurai was a large fan of Persona 5, writing an entire article in his Famitsu column praising its UI (something that shows within the game itself as the menus are similar to Persona 5's alongside the cut-ins of a character's render whenever they perform a Final Smash similar to when characters in the game use skills or conduct an All Out Attack) and attending the Persona Super Live P-Sound Bomb!!!!! 2017 at the invitation of Atlus, which he later wrote about in another article of his column. While Sakurai has written many different columns about many different games, I believe that Sakurai's interactions with Minecraft are worth noting.

To start, he played Minecraft in a 2016 Livestream, so at the very least Minecraft is on his radar. More notable is the article he wrote about Minecraft, "The Potential of Simple Actions" wherein he says this:

Sakurai plays a lot of different video games and doesn't revisit games often, so when does decide to replay a game it's important because he took time from playing a newer game to revisit an older game assumably because he likes it that much.

Additionally, Sakurai has recently appeared on Yoiko's Minecraft Survival three times for Yoiko's Super Smash Brothers Ultimate Lifestyle, a bit related to the main show (they even use little Minecraft avatars to show who's who at the beginning of the episodes). Sakurai also tweeted back and forth with the show, saying "That's cool!" in response to a clip of the second episode, and a similarly positive message that I can't translate in response to a link of the fourth episode.

Sakurai also notes Minecraft's Japanese popularity within another article, saying:

I think Sakurai's surprise at that Stardew Valley taking the number one spot on the Japanese charts instead of Minecraft is another fact that speaks for itself. Yes, Minecraft is just that popular.

Spoiler: Closing

Steve is severely underestimated within the Smash Bubble for a wide variety of reasons, most of which are little more than excuses to bar his and Minecraft's inclusion. A positive relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft and Microsoft's willingness to work with Nintendo combined with Minecraft's overwhelming popularity, an underestimated fanbase supporting Steve, and some good old Sakurai bias could create a perfect storm that leads to Steve's inclusion. I believe that Steve is one of the most likely characters for inclusion as a DLC character; at the very least I wouldn't count him out of the running, nor would I overlook him.

Spoiler: Postscript

This will likely be my last speculation post for a good while as I resume College classes tomorrow, and will become substantially more busy than I have been during my break. I hope you all have enjoyed these pieces as much as I enjoyed writing them, and I also hope that I was able to convince people as to why I believe in these characters so much. If I have time in the future or if a topic really piques my interest I might consider writing another, but I'll be worrying more about essays and assignments for my classes instead of essays and posts here. Don't worry though, because I'll still be around to argue and annoy all of you for the foreseeable future. Here's to more "leaks," ****posts, and speculation!

wasnt as good as the original tho

BANJO VS STEVE - A POINTLESS ESSAY​

It's so pointless I made my own custom template just to show how dedicated I am for such a pointless discussion.

View attachment 158586

EDIT: Decided to not spoiler the image because that's what's gonna draw people to read it maybe. If a mod's not okay with it just lock it up and sue or something idk how this works

So basically if you didn't read my post from a little while ago, I think Banjo and Steve are the biggest of the triad of Microsoft IPs, with the lowest end being Microsoft's own creation: Master Chief. But who would top out in Smash between the two? I got no ****in' idea I'm not Sakurai and I don't wanna pretend like I know the most probable outcome in a choice; because I don't. I'm not even a legal adult yet, I shouldn't be trusted with these options.
But what I can present is my stupid worthless opinion and a little bit of facts here and there to maybe help some others get their big high IQ brains going.

Spoiler: Banjo

Banjo first appeared in 1998 on the Nintendo 64, probably something you already know. But when Microsoft took that sweet sweet Rare IP, so did his ties with Nintendo. However, with Nintendo and Microsoft being all buddy buddy in recent years, this could be his chance at a new appearance for the first time in a decade.

Spoiler: Pros

What Banjo (and the unrelated Conker and that chick from Perfect Dark) has over all other Microsoft IPs, he does have a significant advantage in. That is his preexisting ties with Nintendo.

As the recent craze of bringing characters that have been requested in the same amount of time that Banjo has disappeared from the face of the planet (Ridley, Simon Belmont, King K. Rool, and possibly more!), that could make his revival all the more imminent if the trend continues. Banjo may have scored really high on the Ballot, which will play a big role in his favor and is probably the biggest make-or-break he has. Many people are confident in his potential results.

Hell, even Phil Spencer said he wouldn't mind putting him in! That's surely a done deal, right?

Spoiler: Cons

Well, not really. Phil Spencer could've likely said the same about any big Microsoft IP, but he was only asked about Banjo specifically. Who knows what would've happened if he was asked to choose what character from Microsoft he would've wanted the most, but that's just his opinion and nothing more... like his tweet. Phil isn't the say all for these types of decisions, and what comes out in the end may not come exactly as Phil expressed his gratitude for.

Also, Banjo Kazooie isn't really as big of a hit in the East as it was in the West. As many as near 2 million units in North America is shaking between 450k to 550k in Japan (thats about 1/4 compared to NA sales). I know, I know, being in the game kind of makes that point obsolete if you see it as such, but it could be a big issue as I will talk about in our next character's descriptions.

Rare owns Banjo, but there are other series that are currently live and could be picked over Banjo. That is, Fulgore from Killer Instinct (or really anyone from that game) or Rash from Battletoads (which was both a character in KI and is in the new Battletoads remake coming next year). And both IPs have made their appearances on Nintendo consoles before, even on separate generations!

Spoiler: Steve

Steve is an unnamed enigma, but Minecraft's official release came out in 2009 on the PC. Microsoft grabbed the IP from Mojang a few years ago, and has been going strong in its advertising, making it one of the alltime best selling games that Microsoft owns. So what's so special about this enigma?

Spoiler: Pros

Let's get the obvious out of the way. Minecraft is huge; really huge. Holy **** it's one of the best selling games period. With over 100 million copies on its belt and continuously rising, this thing is nuts over the globe. This is not only true in the West, but also in the East, where Japan sales of the game have reached millions upon millions on the multiple platforms he has appeared on. Even Japan resident user @Venus of the Desert Bloom mentions accounts of seeing children mention the game.



This is definitely a defining edge over Banjo, which is Minecraft's sheer popularity.

Did I mention multi-platform? Minecraft has made its way from PC, to Xbox, the Playstation, and of course, Nintendo consoles on the Wii U, 3DS, and Switch. Minecraft is everywhere, and if you want a system (and game) seller, Minecraft is the way to go in Smash Bros. I'm not suggesting Sakurai should go the money route, but if he sees fit, the madman may just.

Remember when I mentioned Nintendo and Microsoft being buddy buddy as of late? What game do you think started that? Certainly wasn't Banjo Kazooie. Minecraft and its crossplay feature for both Nintendo and Xbox consoles helped form a friendly relationship. Microsoft may have formed a circle around its game to be used, since its both its best selling and most recent familiar shared property with Nintendo at the moment.

Spoiler: Cons

As I've mentioned before, Steve is an enigma. He's not really a mascot, that goes more towards mob enemies such as the Creeper. It may not be wise to use such a generic avatar. I'm not a personal fan of this argument (due to ultcorrin: being just that), but you have to see both sides to remain truly neutral.

Minecraft may also conflict with the art style, as many as argued it to be too drab or "ugly" for Smash's design.

People are also reluctant to share the same audience as the shunned Minecraft audience, which includes various internet celebrities and waves of children.

Finally, the biggest hitter: the Smash Ballot. Banjo could have scored high, and as we've seen, the Ballot seems to take some type of priority over newer characters in some shape or form. If it's big enough, Minecraft definitely won't have a playable scene.

This is probably the biggest battle of Popular Nostalgia VS Popular Relevancy that I have seen for Smash character dilemma. No character is really a better choice than the other when it comes to how much they can qualify more than others. I can't say one character deserves a slot more than another because saying characters deserve to be in a crossover game is pretty dumb as is. It's mostly down to opinion on what you think.

"But Banjo obviously scored high on the polls! Steve never has a chance!", I hear one guy cry out.

That's what you may think. But remember how people talked about the big "meme" or "impossible" ballots, like Goku or Shrek. Allow me to wrap you in some tinfoil for a moment. Would you believe me if I told you that due to its large audience, Minecraft may have an impactful placing on the polls? Now it may seem pretty out of thought, because even I'm skeptical that enough kids are playing Smash Bros. to flood the market with Minecraft votes, but I don't believe that it's impossible. I'll let you think about that proposal, get a big thonker going on.

I hope my rambling gave some insight or maybe it was a fun read to look into.
or maybe i'm just dumb and wrong and nobody will even read it but who knows

 

[ErenJager]

If I could pick the DLC, sounds fun.

Pass One
- Joker
- Dragon Quest Hero
- Ryu Hayabusa
- Mametchi (Pacman gets a Ms. Pacman alt)
- Billy Lee (has a Jimmy Lee alt)

Pass Two
- Leon Kennedy (Jill Valentine Alph alt)
- Pyramid Head
- Lara Croft
- Heihachi
- Kratos

Pass Three
- Crash
- Banjo
- Sora
- Rayman
- Agumon

Pass Three (Alternate Timeline)
- Goku
- Luffy
- Naruto
- Yugi Moto
- Hatsune Miku

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

If you want good arguments against Steve bring up that he's a western developed character, or that he's owned by a direct competitor. Or perhaps that Minecraft has crossovers in Minecraft but Minecraft characters don't leave Minecraft showing a possible hesitance.

I often make sure to organize my posts concerning Steve. Why I don't want him in. And legitimate points against him.

Though one thing that's really put me off him is the supporters who only support him to stick it to other people in a salty way. It's wasteful behavior to support a character just for the salt.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I swear if I had a cent everytime someone acts like they understand how marketing works when they clearly don't I could have bought the Fighter Pass already

I'd have been able to buy Disney lol

 

[Idon]

The Case for Minecraft Steve and the "Smash Bubble" effect​

Hello, and welcome to the fourth in a series of speculation posts written by your's truly. In this post I will be arguing about why Steve from Minecraft is likelier than many think, and why people are so quick to underestimate his chances. Lets jump into it:

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• Per the usual, this is nothing more than speculation. I know nothing more than anyone reading this, and I am not an absolute authority nor will I ever claim to be one. I'm simply a fan with a good mind for speculation who enjoys putting it to use.
  • As part of this, this is only speculation. I will not be addressing leaks of any sort. While I'll admit the serious idea of Steve was brought to me via leaks, I will be arguing for his likelihood outside of leaks.
• I'll also acknowledge my own bias towards Minecraft. Yes, I like Minecraft. Get your laughs out now if you have any. That being said, I have no personal stake in a potential Microsoft representative, and I believe that any of the three speculated choices (Steve, Banjo & Kazooie, and Master Chief) are amazing choices. I simply believe that the former of the three is more likely.

Spoiler: What is the "Smash Bubble?"

One of the most prominent arguments against Steve is that he's not a popular choice among fans, with speculators citing fan poll after fan poll to prove this. One GameFAQs user even said of polls like this,

Oh GameFAQs how you never cease to amuse me.

All of these polls fall into the same trap of being contained within the "Smash Bubble" as myself and others have coined it. What exactly is the "Smash Bubble" though? If I had to define it, I would as such:


While the contribution of these focused fans isn't to be ignored, as evidenced by K. Rool's immense Ballot presence in part due to the Kutthroat's Ballot Campaign and Sakurai's statements on Ridley and Geno, a flaw of the fanbase at large is a general insistence that those within the Smash Bubble are the only Smash Bros. fans and that by not catering to them specifically, Nintendo is making a mistake. This sentiment completely ignores other fanbases outside of the core fanbase which gave us picks such as Isabelle and Simon Belmont.

"But tehponycorn" you say, "Simon was a popular pick! Sakurai even said so himself!" Take a look at the many fan polls listed above and tell me how many Simon prominently appears on. The answer is 3. While 3/12 may seem like modest popularity, his votes total less than 1,000, and he's listed among many other, more popular third party characters. That hardly lines up with Sakurai's statement of Castlevania being "popular in player polls." So, there's a disconnect between what fan polls show and actual popularity? Why is this?

I propose an explanation in two parts:

First, all fan polls by nature fall prey to Voluntary Response Bias, defined as:

Every Smash fan poll cited majorly falls within the Smash Bubble because those within the Smash Bubble are most inclined to vote on polls like these. Granted, even the official Smash Ballot itself falls prey to this, and indeed those within the Smash Bubble would be much more inclined to vote in an official poll like this, but any bias within it is made up for by the Law of Large Numbers, defined as:

The official nature of the poll and the advertising conducted for it extended the reach of the poll to even casual fans, which is why it's so important to establish this disconnect. The largest, most recent Smash fan poll as of right now is the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, with over 50,000 votes. In comparison, the Smash Ballot collected 1.8 million votes (360 times more votes), making it much closer to the wants of the entire Smash Bros. fanbase, hence why picks like Simon Belmont can float by the core fanbase largely undetected.

Second, there exists a strong, silent majority of fans outside of the core fanbase that has sway in character picks. People tend to forget that Nintendo tries to market Smash Bros. for everyone, or at the very least, the largest amount of people possible. It doesn't matter if you're a child whose mom bought him a Switch for Christmas or someone who's been with them since the NES, so long as you're a fan of Nintendo you might as well be considered a part of the Smash Bros. fanbase. Naturally, the wider Nintendo fanbase is largely varied, and outside of the Smash Bubble exists many different demographics with different character desires. This is how we end up with picks like Isabelle, who caters to the larger, more casual fanbase who see Isabelle often.

Returning to the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, you'll notice that Sora and Phoenix Wright scored better than they typically do in other fan polls, taking 5th and 8th place respectively, and garnering a total 20,883 votes, equal to around 40% of votes in the final round. This is impressive for two characters usually overlooked within the Smash Bubble in favor of other, more popular speculation picks. The poll includes this interesting fact about them:

If a larger reddit fan poll was able to attract people outside of Reddit's r/SmashBros, then a poll as massive as the official Ballot would be able to attract people from all over, giving a skew towards the silent majority, as anyone could vote on it, even people outside of the regular Nintendo or Smash Bros. fanbase.

To make a long story short, there is a silent presence outside of the Smash Bubble. It is large and it is more powerful than many think. While our Smash Bubble is a prominent part of the fanbase, Nintendo has a much wider fanbase to appeal to as well, and the Smash Bubble isn't indicative of Smash Bros. fans in general.

Spoiler: Why a Microsoft Character?

Nintendo and Microsoft are closer than ever before as evidenced by both's positive stance towards Cross-Play through titles like Minecraft and Fortnite among others.

Hey @Xbox, since we can play together in @Minecraft now, did you want to build something? pic.twitter.com/LIylWy3yXZ

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) June 21, 2018

Our bodies are ready. What are we building?

— Xbox (@Xbox) June 21, 2018

While I have previously argued that Tweets from Nintendo of America mean little in the grand scheme as Nintendo of Japan is the one ultimately calling the shots, the most important thing here is Xbox's side and the interaction itself. From Xbox's side this is as official as it gets, and is evidence of a much wider business relationship between Microsoft and Nintendo that's been developing over the years. Phil Spencer has been very transparent about this as well, going on record in 2016 and 2018 to describe the positive relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft, to the point where he went to lunch with people from Nintendo during E3. Either that's pretense for negotiations, or Phil Spencer is legitimately close enough with Nintendo to get lunch with them casually.

Additionally, Phil Spencer (bless him for being so open) has been similarly transparent in his (and by association, Xbox's) willingness to get Banjo & Kazooie, another Microsoft character, into Smash Bros. in 2015 and 2018. While this is about another Microsoft character, it's not unreasonable to believe that similar sentiments would be extended to other Microsoft characters, Steve being included.

Nintendo and Microsoft have a good business relationship, and as far as we know the doors are open at Microsoft, so all Nintendo has to do is come to them for negotiations. The ability to bring in a Microsoft character would likely garner a reaction similar to when Sonic was revealed for Brawl, as both characters would be from competing console makers. The three main choices for a Microsoft character, being Banjo & Kazooie, Steve, and Master Chief, each carry their own merits and would be smart picks for DLC from a business and fan pleasing standpoint.

Spoiler: Why Steve from Minecraft?

It's Minecraft. 'Nuff said.

Being serious, My reasoning as to why Steve is more likely than the other two prominent Microsoft characters is simple: Minecraft is overwhelmingly popular Minecraft is the second best selling game of all time, selling 154 million copies and over the summer of 2018 had 91 million active players, which is more than what Fortnite had in September of the same year. Minecraft is also incredibly popular in Japan, topping the charts multiple times and selling over a million copies on the Playstation Vita, a fact that should really speak for itself. For a game that has legitimately been around for almost 10 years, Minecraft has withstood the test of time and proved itself to be a cornerstone of gaming culture as a whole (there's an entire section on Minecraft's cultural impact on its Wikipedia page). For one, Minecraft is a prominent example of indie gaming, originally being developed by one person on his own and gradually becoming bigger as its popularity increased. I would even say that Minecraft could arguably be considered the indie game, and at the very least shaped the basic structure of indie games releasing in beta versions and gradually becoming more complete since it was the first game to prominently do so.

The widespread appeal of Minecraft can't be understated. There's endless Minecraft merchandise including that of popular Minecraft Youtubers (imagine getting toys made after you for playing a video game). Minecraft is even used for education for some reason and it works, which is hard for edutainment games. The game's also received two prominent spin-offs, Minecraft Story Mode, made by TellTale Games at their peak, and Minecraft Dungeons, which is indicative of the series' wider popularity. Minecraft is also one of many prominent series to have it's own fan convention, MineCon, which regularly attracts thousands of fans and garners hundreds of thousands of millions of views online. I also can't fail to mention the many clones of Minecraft or unofficial merchandise that attempt to cash in on the popularity of the original game. Some of these get modest success, such as the Minecraft clones made for Wii U before the official release came out.

"But tehponycorn" you say "Steve isn't a popular character!"

One, refer to "What is the Smash Bubble?" as to why that argument isn't as valid as you think it is Two, you're wrong. At a Q&A at MineCon 2018, someone asked Minecraft developers if they thought Steve would be in Smash Bros., and a Mojang PR person who happened to be part of the panel responded, saying:

So, demand exists within the Minecraft community. Furthermore, Steve gained a reputation as a popular "meme" pick due to the high amount of requests for him by children on Miiverse, Nintendo's Social Media experiment platform. Returning to the idea of silent parts of the Smash fanbase existing outside of the Smash Bubble, I would say that there certainly exists a sizable group of people outside of core speculation websites that supports Steve and would voice said want given official outlets such as the Smash Ballot. It's important to consider the massive fanbase Minecraft has because by extension this means that Steve, in theory, has a massive fanbase behind his inclusion in Smash Bros. Steve is a safe bet from a business/sales standpoint as his inclusion could easily rope in sales of Switch consoles, Smash Bros., and/or DLC because Steve is in the game and there are a lot of people who would want to see him go against Mario and other iconic video game characters. There is a demand for Steve. It is underestimated by many, and that is a mistake.

What about the good old argument of "Sakurai bias?" Would Sakurai be inclined to include Steve if presented the idea of him by Nintendo or would he go out of his way to negotiate for him? I believe the answer to both of those questions is yes.

Let's take a look at the example of Joker. It's no small fact that Sakurai was a large fan of Persona 5, writing an entire article in his Famitsu column praising its UI (something that shows within the game itself as the menus are similar to Persona 5's alongside the cut-ins of a character's render whenever they perform a Final Smash similar to when characters in the game use skills or conduct an All Out Attack) and attending the Persona Super Live P-Sound Bomb!!!!! 2017 at the invitation of Atlus, which he later wrote about in another article of his column. While Sakurai has written many different columns about many different games, I believe that Sakurai's interactions with Minecraft are worth noting.

To start, he played Minecraft in a 2016 Livestream, so at the very least Minecraft is on his radar. More notable is the article he wrote about Minecraft, "The Potential of Simple Actions" wherein he says this:

Sakurai plays a lot of different video games and doesn't revisit games often, so when does decide to replay a game it's important because he took time from playing a newer game to revisit an older game assumably because he likes it that much.

Additionally, Sakurai has recently appeared on Yoiko's Minecraft Survival three times for Yoiko's Super Smash Brothers Ultimate Lifestyle, a bit related to the main show (they even use little Minecraft avatars to show who's who at the beginning of the episodes). Sakurai also tweeted back and forth with the show, saying "That's cool!" in response to a clip of the second episode, and a similarly positive message that I can't translate in response to a link of the fourth episode.

Sakurai also notes Minecraft's Japanese popularity within another article, saying:

I think Sakurai's surprise at that Stardew Valley taking the number one spot on the Japanese charts instead of Minecraft is another fact that speaks for itself. Yes, Minecraft is just that popular.

Spoiler: Closing

Steve is severely underestimated within the Smash Bubble for a wide variety of reasons, most of which are little more than excuses to bar his and Minecraft's inclusion. A positive relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft and Microsoft's willingness to work with Nintendo combined with Minecraft's overwhelming popularity, an underestimated fanbase supporting Steve, and some good old Sakurai bias could create a perfect storm that leads to Steve's inclusion. I believe that Steve is one of the most likely characters for inclusion as a DLC character; at the very least I wouldn't count him out of the running, nor would I overlook him.

Spoiler: Postscript

This will likely be my last speculation post for a good while as I resume College classes tomorrow, and will become substantially more busy than I have been during my break. I hope you all have enjoyed these pieces as much as I enjoyed writing them, and I also hope that I was able to convince people as to why I believe in these characters so much. If I have time in the future or if a topic really piques my interest I might consider writing another, but I'll be worrying more about essays and assignments for my classes instead of essays and posts here. Don't worry though, because I'll still be around to argue and annoy all of you for the foreseeable future. Here's to more "leaks," ****posts, and speculation!

Wait, didn't you already post this?
Or is this another one?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Wait, didn't you already post this?
Or is this another one?

He posted a part of it, this is the full thing

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Wait, didn't you already post this?
Or is this another one?

I posted it in the Steve thread, but not here. I did previously post an excerpt here, but this is the full thing.

You may also be thinking about my Definitive Case for Lloyd.

 

[Iridium]

He gets it.

You'll see soon enough.

Page 5,963 from what I checked. 10 minutes, heh...

 

[Dee Dude]

We've had people here try to humiliate me going "LOOK AT HER! SHE THINKS BANJO KAZOOIE IS BORING! SHE THINKS ****ING MINECRAFT STEVE WOULD BE MORE EXCITING FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC!" Hell, one dude put me in their sig specifically to go "THIS PERSON IS THE TOXICITY OF SMASH BROS!"

I don’t agree with your opinion on Banjo/Steve at all but that doesn’t mean I’ll antagonize it.

Geez, did someone really put you on their sig?

 

[ErenJager]

Because Rayman, Shovel Knight and Shantae are nowhere near as big as Minecraft or Doom

Contrary to your statement.
If the rumors and leaks are false.
Then why is there zero doom and Minecraft content yet there is Rayman, shovel Knight, and Shantae content?

Being big appears to not be everything mate.

 

[Will]

I posted it in the Steve thread, but not here. I did previously post an excerpt here, but this is the full thing.

You may also be thinking about my Definitive Case for Lloyd.

You could turn this into a YouTube channel and get like, maybe 30K subscribers at best.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don’t agree with your opinion on Banjo/Steve at all but that doesn’t mean I’ll antagonize it.

Geez, did someone really put you on their sig?

Yeah. I even have names of the ****heads but I'm gonna prove I'm better than them lmao. I like how personality lets people either respect me, crush on me or hate my guts, it's hilarious tbh

 

[Ultomato]

If I could pick the DLC, sounds fun.

Pass One
- Joker
- Dragon Quest Hero
- Ryu Hayabusa
- Mametchi (Pacman gets a Ms. Pacman alt)
- Billy Lee (has a Jimmy Lee alt)

Pass Two
- Leon Kennedy (Jill Valentine Alph alt)
- Pyramid Head
- Lara Croft
- Heihachi
- Kratos

Pass Three
- Crash
- Banjo
- Sora
- Rayman
- Agumon

Pass Three (Alternate Timeline)
- Goku
- Luffy
- Naruto
- Yugi Moto
- Hatsune Miku

Seeing your profile pic I'm surprised there's no medabot in there

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

Page 5,963 from what I checked. 10 minutes, heh...

Sweetness. You're really good at hunting down the ones. Heh, I'd almost all you to hunt down bits like where the Joker phase hit us on December 6th, and also, Idon nigh calling me crazy or giving one of those "when hell freezes over " comments when I suggested we'd be getting Joker or a Persona rep as our SMT representation, or in Smash at all, if it weren't coming off too strong.

 

[ErenJager]

Seeing your profile pic I'm surprised there's no medabot in there

Don't get me wrong I'd love me some medabots and Monster rancher in Smash.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

If I could pick the DLC?

I'd want Fortnite and Markass Brownlee

Being serious, here's how my DLC would look:
Pass 1:

1. Joker
2. Erdrick
3. Steve
4. Lloyd Irving
5. Leon Kennedy

Pass 2:

1. Sora
2. Waluigi
3. Rex & Pyra
4. Doom Guy
5. Crash Bandicoot

Bonuses:

• Piranha Plant
• Character chosen by Smash Ultimate Ballot

 

[osby]

Contrary to your statement.
If the rumors and leaks are false.
Then why is there zero doom and Minecraft content yet there is Rayman, shovel Knight, and Shantae content?

Being big appears to not be everything mate.

Because they are from smaller companies and it's cheap to get content from them?

And also they wouldn't make as much sense as DLC fighters, being not as big (possibly Rayman aside).

 

[PeridotGX]

Grovyle as Greninja echo

Sorry, but how does that even work?

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

If I could pick the DLC?

I'd want Fortnite and Markass Brownlee

Being serious, here's how my DLC would look:
Pass 1:

1. Joker
2. Erdrick
3. Steve
4. Lloyd Irving
5. Leon Kennedy

Pass 2:

1. Sora
2. Waluigi
3. Rex & Pyra
4. Doom Guy
5. Crash Bandicoot

Bonuses:

• Piranha Plant
• Character chosen by Smash Ultimate Ballot

Didn't you state this already?

 

[osby]

Sorry, but how does that even work?

It's like King Crimson. It just works.

 

[Wademan94]

EDIT: accidentially quotes the wrong post here and can't seem to fix it. This was about the Celeste thing
Yeah, I ran out there and went for "game that needs representation" instead of something logical.

But defend her:
There is not much to work with except excellent platformer movement to use. That movement alone is already more than, for example, Villager had and Sakurai made him work very well.

I'm not saying she's realistic, but I'm saying she's not an insanity pick.

Now in the mean time I thought up a much more detailed wishlist so next post coming in hot.

I mean I guess, I’m just having trouble seeing what her moveset would even be like.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

How dare you.

I dare because I am an honorary member of being dumb, and you’ll have no choice but to be apart of said club cult

 

[Robertman2]

If I could pick the DLC?

I'd want Fortnite and Markass Brownlee

Being serious, here's how my DLC would look:
Pass 1:

1. Joker
2. Erdrick
3. Steve
4. Lloyd Irving
5. Leon Kennedy

Pass 2:

1. Sora
2. Waluigi
3. Rex & Pyra
4. Doom Guy
5. Crash Bandicoot

Bonuses:

• Piranha Plant
• Character chosen by Smash Ultimate Ballot

Outside of Rex & Pyra, this is pretty great

 

[Ultomato]

Sorry, but how does that even work?

I thought about this a lot. Off course, we're going with Mystery Dungeon Grovyle.
Normal/smash attacks: his Leaf Blades van replace the Water Blades, easy.

Now, specials, all pulled from his various PMD2 movesets :
Neutral: Bullet Seed, Just Ivysaurs, but forward.
Side: In PMD2, he actually uses Shadow Sneak, but you can use dig for variety.
Up: Quick Attack. Just like Pikachu's, so Hydropump with a hitbox and no windbox.
Down: Again, his PMD2 set uses Substitute

So yeah. Easy

 

[Will]

Outside of Rex & Pyra, this is pretty great

What's wrong with them?

 

[ErenJager]

Because they are from smaller companies and it's cheap to get content from them?

And also they wouldn't make as much sense as DLC fighters, being not as big (possibly Rayman aside).

Lots of opinions and assumptions.

Considering Rayman has more titles and has sold more... I don't know if Doom is bigger.

Doom is an early 90's IP too. It's not like NES or arcade tier.

Plus why Doom? There are other western IP much bigger then Doom.

Your points are pretty subjective, and depend heavily on a likely faked rumor.

"Ubisoftich smaller company" ..lol

 

[Ultomato]

I mean I guess, I’m just having trouble seeing what her moveset would even be like.

Me too, but I can still want the character

 

[osby]

Outside of Rex & Pyra, this is pretty great

What's wrong with them?

Oh, so we're doing this again.

 

[Will]

Oh, so we're doing this again.

Dude it's just a question

 

[Yellowlord]

Hey guys: wasn’t there a rumor at one point that Yuri and Lloyd were being considered for a Tales rep? Has anything changed since then?

I honestly do think the other codename we saw in the recent datamine might related to Yuri either way.

 

[Ultomato]

What's wrong with them?

They're boring characters compared to other main Xenoblade characters (even Elma). As a combat-cencept they would be awesome, though, but then we'd rather have Lora and Jin

 

[Wademan94]

Me too, but I can still want the character

I’m personally not comfortable supporting as character as a fighter if I don’t have a good idea of how they’d work but I’d still love to see her and the game represented in Smash regardless

 

[Will]

They're boring characters compared to other main Xenoblade characters (even Elma). As a combat-cencept they would be awesome, though, but then we'd rather have Lora and Jin

Aw man, I love a "they're boring so they shouldn't be in" argument.
also who's we? certainly not r/xenoblade

 

[Ultomato]

I’m personally not comfortable supporting as character as a fighter if I don’t have a good idea of how they’d work but I’d still love to see her and the game represented in Smash regardless

Also can I Just have a fight with (a remix of) Mirror Temple playing?

 

[Deleted member]

I often make sure to organize my posts concerning Steve. Why I don't want him in. And legitimate points against him.

Though one thing that's really put me off him is the supporters who only support him to stick it to other people in a salty way. It's wasteful behavior to support a character just for the salt.

I'll support every character that gets undeserved hate because ya'll honestly take these things too seriously sometimes.

Bonus 2: Grovyle as Greninja echo

 

[Ultomato]

I

Aw man, I love a "they're boring so they shouldn't be in" argument.
also who's we? certainly not r/xenoblade

I never said they shouldn't be in. I Just say that I'd rather have Lora. They're boring, but are the most fitting representatives for An amazing game and would be very unique so I'd welcome Them with open Arms.

 

[Wademan94]

I mean tbh I’m more invested in Rex and Pyra/Mythra as a fighter more for their unique moveset potential instead of a character standpoint. But yeah I’d prefer the thread not go through that song and dance again...

Also can I Just have a fight with (a remix of) Mirror Temple playing?

Music is one of the ways I would love to see Celeste represented, imagine this being played on Summit

 

[Robertman2]

Lots of opinions and assumptions.

Considering Rayman has more titles and has sold more... I don't know if Doom is bigger.

Doom is an early 90's IP too. It's not like NES or arcade tier.

Plus why Doom? There are other western IP much bigger then Doom.

Your points are pretty subjective, and depend heavily on a likely faked rumor.

"Ubisoftich smaller company" ..lol

Because Doom had WAY more impact on the industry than a bunch of C tier platforming characters

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

I'll support every character that gets undeserved hate because ya'll honestly take these things too seriously sometimes.

I don't, and that's why I hate getting caught in the crossfire.

 

[Ultomato]

Music is one of the ways I would love to see Celeste represented, imagine this being played on Summit

Yes please!!!!