im still holding out hope for geno, buuut lets take the idea "spirits deconfirm characters" anyway and see what we get.
Theres a few missing spirits like adeleine, cross, and tibby who could possibly be dlc character but two stand out to me the most, porky and sylux.
porky is the only boss to have no spirit, and he has a long history with smash yet appears to be nowhere (heh) this time.
mother 3 is highly requested to get localized and has been for a long time.
mothers 30th anniversary is next year, perfect time for a collection or something.
sylux is the hunter that has the biggest role in metroid games yet does not get a spirit while other hunters do.
sylux is supposedly getting a bigger role as part of metroid prime 4.
metroid prime 4 will likely be one of nintendos "big" games in the near future, pushing sales etc...
nintendo is choosing the dlc choices, not sakurai.
nintendo seems to have pushed corrin to promote the newest FE back during smash 4 dlc, sakurai even said he thought there were too many fe characters.
nintendo is not above pushing short sighted money grabs and cross promotional characters (not saying these characters are that but anything beyond helping sell both smash dlc and some current "in the moment" game might not factor much into a nintendo pick).
box theory proves that yes we can indeed easily assume characters sometimes, nintendo might not "hide their hand" as much as we think they do, we literally over think this stuff everytime, it might be as simple as figuring out the few big characters who dont have spirits that also might promote games next year.
there are other missing spirit characters but those 2 have a lot going for them now imo, i cant ignore that theyd make sense given all we know.
again im not totally on board with spirits characters being deconfirmed as dlc choices but there is a logic to it so its worth speculating over just in case that is how this goes down, i'll ALSO be rooting for geno and hopeful anyone is still possible of course but its still worth fully investigating this possibility.
other characters that stand out to me are:
1.heihachi - missing mii costume like all the third party mii costumes but also no spirit when namco is working so closely on smash, already felt likely and seems like an easy spirit choice yet hes not here.
2.banjo - some Rare games are represented in smash ultimate, blast corps and jet force gemini, very interesting we'd get ANYTHING Rare so this is definitely something to pay attention to suddenly.
3.style savvy - seems a missing song exists that might have been attached to a style savvy stage and no spirit is found in the code despite people seeing one in the final smash direct, potentially held off for dlc? we also seem to have a character that was "cut" between isabelle and incineroar, and with missing style savvy song that could potentially be whats happening here.