Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Tyrathius]

I'm surprised this isn't getting as much traction. This is a large statement from Spawn Wave that confirms multiple things.

• Incineroar IS in the game (Eat pants @ToasterBrains).
• We are getting at least two more characters who will be revealed in the same trailer.
• Some of the characters within the banner leak are in the game. The plural is important. It could mean we're getting more than Ken and Incineroar (Don't take this as a hard disconfirmation of box theory).
  • This means that any of the following could be in the game:
    • Ken
    • Shadow
    • Banjo & Kazooie
    • Geno
    • Mach Rider
    • Isaac
    • Chorus Kids
• The banner is off, as many users have noted.

Personally, my stance on it?

It's fake, between Mystic coming out and saying this, all of the other insiders saying it's fake (I know we're discrediting Joe from Serebii, but he's had insider information on Pokémon in Smash Bros. before, such as Brawl where he knew that Mewtwo was cut and Lucario was in), the evidence that the person who supposedly leaked it is being impersonated, and the inconsistencies within the banner itself I can't believe that this is real.

That being said, I'd compare it to the Palutena leak from the Sm4sh era in how wonderfully executed it was, and it could actually be based off of real information.

We'll see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks or so. Hopefully we get a direct announcement soon.

I wouldn't be surprised. Even if the leak is fake, Shadow's still one of the most likely echoes, the only thing potentially against him is Box Theory saying there's not enough slots left. And if the sprout thing really is from Golden Sun (I'm not convinced it is) then Isaac's chances have improved dramatically.

 

[staindgrey]

Yeah, which is why I'm trying to consider other possible scenarios, including the leak isn't real, and perhaps 2 first parties share a trailer (like Robin and Lucina), though I really can't speculate on who. Best guess, if the Grinch leak is fake, Isaac/Felix, as that was one of my predictions before dwindling down my newcomer predictions to 5 last month. What gets me is the ambiguity of that statement.

It could be something where "two characters" doesn't actually mean two fighters. The source could be confusing a character in the video with being a playable fighter. It's a possibility. Remember that Chrom was in a Smash trailer but wasn't ever added to Smash 4.

 

[PLATINUM7]

Regarding the leak— http://twitter.com/Nin_SmashBros/status/1055138313084891136/photo/1 — why are Jigglypuff and Pokemon Trainer moved, and where are the Mii Fighters?

Jiggs and PT are moved to make room for the Chorus Kids and the Miis are above K. Rool.

 

[Jeck]

I feel like its more likely some sort of "gematsu situation" than straight up "faked" IF it isnt 100% real.

I feel like something else is going on here with it as insiders are indeed perplexed.

Papa, the obvious no-brainer solution is that the ones we don't see are just planned DLC. But do you have reason to believe from your source that that's not the case?

And when I say DLC I mean like earlier than we got Mewtwo. Maybe an online subscription perk.

 

[CosmicQuark]

I'm surprised this isn't getting as much traction. This is a large statement from Spawn Wave that confirms multiple things.

• Incineroar IS in the game (Eat pants @ToasterBrains).
• We are getting at least two more characters who will be revealed in the same trailer.
• Some of the characters within the banner leak are in the game. The plural is important. It could mean we're getting more than Ken and Incineroar (Don't take this as a hard disconfirmation of box theory).
  • This means that any of the following could be in the game:
    • Ken
    • Shadow
    • Banjo & Kazooie
    • Geno
    • Mach Rider
    • Isaac
    • Chorus Kids
• The banner is off, as many users have noted.

Personally, my stance on it?

It's fake, between Spawn Wave coming out and saying this, all of the other insiders saying it's fake (I know we're discrediting Joe from Serebii, but he's had insider information on Pokémon in Smash Bros. before, such as Brawl where he knew that Mewtwo was cut and Lucario was in), the evidence that the person who supposedly leaked it is being impersonated, and the inconsistencies within the banner itself I can't believe that this is real.

That being said, I'd compare it to the Palutena leak from the Sm4sh era in how wonderfully executed it was, and it could actually be based off of real information.

We'll see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks or so. Hopefully we get a direct announcement soon.

I don't think there's any reason to discredit Joe among all the other insiders. I discredit them all in the the same degree (not fully, I do take them into heavy consideration) given none have given any non-trivial info/reasons that I know of, so I can't tell how much of their information is coming from false assumptions (and even now I'm starting to doubt Mystic, as while transparency is great, backtracking is not a good sign for me). It's also why I weigh rumors/leaks emphasizing images over rumors, and don't take text leaks into consideration at all (but fun to look at). So, doesn't change my current ideas, until I see something more conclusive.

 

[ReeseBalaski]

"Back in my day, those who believed we were getting more than 4 characters were seen as expecting too much! Ahh, what fun the youth has!"
JK, JK.

In all seriousness, man. We went from the most logical quantity being about 2-4 for base, now we've gone to double that amount. (If the banner is real.)

Definitely a turn of events.

 

[Naiko3232]

What if the banner is real but Incineroar is not going to be announced in the new direct?

What if he is a surprise at the TGA awards? this happens 1 day before the game launches, they could do a trailer.

 

[Z25]

Actually I fully believe insiders are being baited. Nintendo’s not stupid, they know the games always leak no matter what.

So how do you stop that without stopping it?

You make sure every insider and their mother is sure of something that in reality is a facade and let hem do the clean up work by making people doubt something that’s legit

 

[Super Nintendo Chalmers]

Saw Etika’s channel got shut down

thank god he was so awful and fake

Not my cup of tea either, super cringe-y with his content and in some ways he epitomizes all that is bad with YT and Smash speculation in some ways. I enjoyed some of his content in his early days but it is best in small doses, when he got too vulgar then that was kind of it for me.

Regardless, I hope the person behind the character gets in a better space soon and is able to access whatever support required and that we see him bounce back.

 

[Z25]

What if the banner is real but Incineroar is not going to be announced in the new direct?

What if he is a surprise at the TGA awards? this happens 1 day before the game launches, they could do a trailer.

Supposedly that’s not the case and that it’s sora dlc that gets a trailer there

 

[staindgrey]

Snake was announced at the end of the Brawl E3 trailer, which also revealed many first party characters.

While he wasn't revealed directly alongside these characters, there is a precedent for this.

Certainly. You can say the same thing about Simon being in the same direct as K. Rool. But the Brawl trailer came before Nintendo Directs were a thing, and now they seem to like to structure them as individual trailers spread out by other information.

If Brawl were announced today, I think Snake's reveal would mimic Ridley's or K. Rool's in a "one more thing" sort of add-on after a slew of information, rather than being a tack-on to a larger trailer.

 

[PLATINUM7]

What if the banner is real but Incineroar is not going to be announced in the new direct?

What if he is a surprise at the TGA awards? this happens 1 day before the game launches, they could do a trailer.

Unless announcements at the VGAs are for DLC, there's no point. With time zone differences, the game will already be out in some countries before the VGAs air.

 

[osby]

So my dream of this leak + Incineroar could come to fruition?

Gimme a sec, I need to find an appropriate gif to illustrate my immense joy.

Would this work?:

Spoiler: joy

 

[Jetsurge]

Not my cup of tea either, super cringe-y and in some ways he epitomizes all that is bad with YT and Smash speculation in some ways.

Regardless, I hope he is in a good space and is able to access whatever support required, if need be.

Dude WTF he's having a mental breakdown

 

[Idon]

Nintendo’s not stupid

They can get... pretty close.

 

[Naiko3232]

Unless announcements at the VGAs are for DLC, there's no point. With time zone differences, the game will already be out in some countries before the VGAs air.

Good point, but i see possible a DLC with the "availible now" like they did with the BOTW DLC.

The more i think about it, yeah it seems like a wish than anything else, still possible to see something Smash related.

 

[Noipoi]

Would this work?:

Spoiler: joy

That works great!

 

[Chrono.]

So now the question, which characters are happening? I guess if I had to rank them in the order of likelyhood at the top of my head it'd be....

- Ken (extremely likely to have already leaked in another separate image)
- Geno (the fabled SE rep, or not)
- Shadow (easy-tier echo and highly popular)
- Banjo (highly requested character and papagenos' source has me thinking)
- Isaac (another highly requested character with a possible connection to an item we know nothing about yet)
- Chorus Kids (were seemingly worked on before in 4, could be an idea revisit)
- Mach Rider (The "out there" character, but Sakurai did want the character in Melee so there's precedence)

Honestly everyone from Geno to Banjo are in the same tier for me. I could see any of those 3 happening or multiple of them.

It's after them that I get a little skeptical, as much as I'd love Isaac in the game.

 

[ReeseBalaski]

Nintendo gets more stuff right than wrong usually. But when they **** up? They **** up hard.

The banner supposedly leaking like this would be an example. You really can't trust anybody with Smash, it seems.

 

[Mehdow]

Hi again! I just woke up, any news in the past hours? The last thing I know is the leaker working for another company (ACP-PLV or something like that) and a little about a "possible" Golden Sun Item (the "bubbled plant") but I don't know anything else....

 

[Z25]

View attachment 172235

They can get... pretty close.

Fair enough but after that new guy whose name I can’t pronounce took over, they’ve made a lot of smart moves. Finally stepping up their leaker game wouldn’t shock me.

Also let’s not forget the last time insiders were so sure of a character being in.

Ah yes I remember, that’s was when they told shovel knight would be revealed in a splatoon direct

 

[dezeray112]

So far, how many of the insiders believe the banner leak to be real and fake?

 

[staindgrey]

What if the banner is real but Incineroar is not going to be announced in the new direct?

What if he is a surprise at the TGA awards? this happens 1 day before the game launches, they could do a trailer.

Again, remember time zones. If Nintendo announces anything at the Game Awards, the game will already be out in Japan. If I remember right, the Game Awards start at 11am local time in Japan on Dec. 7th.

Anything they announce there would have to be for a different game entirely or DLC. Personally, I don't see Incineroar being DLC, but eh. What do I know.

 

[Super Nintendo Chalmers]

Dude WTF he's having a mental breakdown

Edited my original post., did not mean it like that, check the last part of that sentence.

Meant that I hope he is able to find himself in a better space, missed a word or two.

Phew!

 

[CosmicQuark]

Good point, but i see possible a DLC with the "availible now" like they did with the BOTW DLC.

The more i think about it, yeah it seems like a wish than anything else, still possible to see something Smash related.

I think with Spawn Wave rumoring it, it's definitely a higher possibility we'll get an announcement at the Game Awards. I just dread the thought of Sakurai giving in on Day 1 DLC and I still think it's awkward to announce a DLC character that can't be played Day 1 the day before the game comes out (the day of, in Japan). And certainly not a base character as they would absolutely be leaked being announced the day before. ****.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

yeah just to reiterate it all again:

a credible source came to me with info from a microsoft source of theirs.

the microsoft source had heard all the banner characters plus incineroar before this banner leak happened but could only for sure confirm banjo.

when the banner leak came out they considered it proof of what they had heard, but were confused where incineroar was.

now other "insiders" have seemed to agree they also heard incineroar and now possibly (an)other character(s) as well. I have no idea whats actually happening behind the scenes but i do NOT think the banner is your typical faked leak, i think its likely real but something strange is going on here with what insiders have heard.

I feel like its more likely some sort of "gematsu situation" than straight up "faked" IF it isnt 100% real.

I feel like something else is going on here with it as insiders are indeed perplexed.

This is a reasonable assumption to make. There is certainly something strange going on with this leak. I primarily believe it's the lack of Incineroar.

I'll say this now: Incineroar is in the game. Anyone with a fraction of insider knowledge knows this, which is why multiple people have come out and said it, including Mystic, who specifically said he's only saying what he's heard from multiple sources. It's just as much a well-known secret as Isabelle was before her reveal.

No, Incineroar is not leaker bait. The point of leaker bait is to catch leakers. It's in the name, bait. Why would Nintendo go and tell every insider's source that Incineroar is in the game when he isn't? The idea of it being a misinformation campaign is plausible, but what does that accomplish? Nintendo isn't able to pinpoint who's saying what if they tell everyone the same misinformation. It'd make more sense if we heard multiple Pokémon, but instead it's just Incineroar. I also doubt Nintendo would start a misinformation campaign right now in an attempt at damage control. They've proven to just ignore actual leaks, so why would they act so differently this time? And before you say "but Smash is special" and "they're handling leaks differently this time," we have no proof of that other than what boils down to PR statements. Even then, aspects of the E3 reveal got leaked even when Sakurai said they didn't, so their "leak protection" isn't as great as they say it is.

So, if Incineroar is in the game, why isn't he on the banner? That's the biggest question, and I'd say that's why insiders are doubting it. There is every reason to believe Incineroar is in this game. I believe some insiders believe that this leak is fake solely because it lacks Incineroar, who is a glaringly obvious omission. If this is the full banner, then why are characters missing?

Maybe it's not necessarily fake, but if it isn't, this is not the complete truth.

My theory is that Incenroar is bait or day one dlc if you have Nintendo switch online.

Sora is also real but the first true dlc character. This would explain all the contradictions the insiders seem to have.

But at the same we’ve hard Nintendo is ****ing with leakers hard with false info so perhaps everyone is falling for a trap set by Nintendo that would cover up a big leak like this because it raises doubt.

Look, if I can't argue conspiracy, you can't either.

 

[The_Intruder]

So far, how many of the insiders believe the banner leak to be real and fake?

On Era every staff members including Zhuge have voted fake.

 

[Jetsurge]

Nintendo’s not stupid

Hmmmmmmmmmm.........................

 

[Tyrathius]

Actually I fully believe insiders are being baited. Nintendo’s not stupid, they know the games always leak no matter what.

So how do you stop that without stopping it?

You make sure every insider and their mother is sure of something that in reality is a facade and let hem do the clean up work by making people doubt something that’s legit

It's possible they are going to greater lengths to conceal the ballot winners, and that's why we haven't heard of any of these characters yet. To my knowledge K. Rool was never leaked.

Isabelle, Ken, and the Belmonts were probably not ballot winners. Ridley might have been, but he could also have just been the result of backlash from being omitted last time. The echoes, I doubt ranked very high (they might have ranked high enough to be the reason we got Chrom and Daisy instead of, say, Raichu and Funky Kong, but I doubt they were anywhere near the top). Inklings weren't leaked either AFAIK, but they were the first announced and could also be an advertising rep.

 

[papagenos]

Papa, the obvious no-brainer solution is that the ones we don't see are just planned DLC. But do you have reason to believe from your source that that's not the case?

And when I say DLC I mean like earlier than we got Mewtwo. Maybe an online subscription perk.

my source said:

"The Microsoft source had heard of all of the characters in this leak, but haven't had any solid proof and weren't sure to believe it until now. The only one they were sure on was Banjo, now they are sure on all. "

and they also said that the microsoft source had "also heard inceneroar, so they are trying to figure out what happened to inceneroar or if he was just leak bait or what. "

those are quotes from my source.

i agree anyone not on the banner being "planned dlc" makes the most sense to me but i do not know for sure what is going on with "missing" characters here.


SPECULATION:
im starting to think sakurai might be announcing ALL the characters even those who will be DLC and thats why there are SO many floating around people are "sure" of. sakurai did say he'd reveal all the fighters before the games out... but this is just speculation and a thought that crossed my mind while trying to make sense of all this.

[edit] to add to that thought, perhaps no one knows who is BASE ROSTER and who isnt. maybe the banner is base roster but no insider knew who was planned for that and who wasnt... so characters they heard are in fact DLC despite being known about, which led them to assume they were base roster.

 

[Noipoi]

Hmmmmmmmmmm.........................

Hey! The Wii U tried it's best!

 

[OurBoyRoy]

yeah just to reiterate it all again:

a credible source came to me with info from a microsoft source of theirs.

the microsoft source had heard all the banner characters plus incineroar before this banner leak happened but could only for sure confirm banjo.

when the banner leak came out they considered it proof of what they had heard, but were confused where incineroar was.

now other "insiders" have seemed to agree they also heard incineroar and now possibly (an)other character(s) as well. I have no idea whats actually happening behind the scenes but i do NOT think the banner is your typical faked leak, i think its likely real but something strange is going on here with what insiders have heard.

Without compromising anything, can you elaborate at all to give a sense of how firm your Microsoft source is for Banjo? Like were they able to prove their credentials and have they described at all what they saw that's telling them Banjo is in?

I'm leaning toward real but I'm honestly going to be a little crushed if Banjo's not in. Especially after finally coming to terms with the end of the roster likely being Ken, Incinerorar and maybe Steve +Random SE rep.

 

[Chrono.]

And then there's tansut's whole thing about a recent rumor out there supposedly ruffling feathers, possibly Square's.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

my source said:

"The Microsoft source had heard of all of the characters in this leak, but haven't had any solid proof and weren't sure to believe it until now. The only one they were sure on was Banjo, now they are sure on all. "

and they also said that the microsoft source had "also heard inceneroar, so they are trying to figure out what happened to inceneroar or if he was just leak bait or what. "

those are quotes from my source.

i agree anyone not on the banner being "planned dlc" makes the most sense to me but i do not know for sure what is going on with "missing" characters here.


SPECULATION:
im starting to think sakurai might be announcing ALL the characters even those who will be DLC and thats why there are SO many floating around people are "sure" of. sakurai did say he'd reveal all the fighters before the games out... but this is just speculation and a thought that crossed my mind while trying to make sense of all this.

So, we're getting the full ****ing roster in the next Direct?

You know, I never considered any leaks that said we'd get that, but now? Anything's possible I guess.

And then there's tansut's whole thing about a recent rumor out there supposedly ruffling feathers, possibly Square's.

Can I get a source on that?

 

[Jetsurge]

So, we're getting the full ****ing roster in the next Direct?

I don't see why we wouldn't be

im starting to think sakurai might be announcing ALL the characters even those who will be DLC and thats why there are SO many floating around people are "sure" of. sakurai did say he'd reveal all the fighters before the games out... but this is just speculation and a thought that crossed my mind while trying to make sense of all this.

The thing is they wouldn't make Mach Rider dlc. She's way too obscure.

 

[staindgrey]

I think with Spawn Wave rumoring it, it's definitely a higher possibility we'll get an announcement at the Game Awards. I just dread the thought of Sakurai giving in on Day 1 DLC and I still think it's awkward to announce a DLC character that can't be played Day 1 the day before the game comes out (the day of, in Japan). And certainly not a base character as they would absolutely be leaked being announced the day before. ****.

Worth remembering that Mewtwo was announced before Smash for Wii U came out.

I'm still of the opinion that whatever Nintendo announces at the Game Awards won't be Smash-related. They've got Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3 and Fire Emblem Three Houses all coming in possibly 2019, and we know next to nothing about any of them. Smash isn't going to sell any more consoles for the Christmas season than it already is if they announce a DLC fighter there, but a slick trailer for a highly anticipated 2019 game might.

 

[FixedFun]

I NEED THAT NINTENDO DIRECT LIKE now

 

[Jetsurge]

Worth remembering that Mewtwo was announced before Smash for Wii U came out.

Smash 3ds had already released

 

[Chrono.]

Can I get a source on that?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/su...y-the-music-died.73893/page-126#post-13865225
https://www.resetera.com/threads/su...y-the-music-died.73893/page-204#post-13968171

The Square part is speculation on my part, but he's the guy that leaked Cloud so it makes me think whoever his source is might be from there.

 

[osby]

Hey! The Wii U tried it's best!

Worst thing about Wii U was having Wii in its name.

I mean, why?