Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Impa4Smash]

So the Direct basically has to be within the next 3 weeks. Past that is under a month from release, which if nothing else makes everything way too easy to leak. I just really can't see a Nov 14th (or later) Direct as a real possibility.

I'm putting my odds as 30:50:20. (That the direct happens in exactly the next 1/2/3 weeks) Thoughts?

I would agree. Also, so Let's Go can get the advertising spotlight for a bit. I'm gonna guess first week of November for the final direct

 

[Deoxys911]

It's Smash Ultimate, it's going to be up there. I will bet my entire Switch.

IGN: "Mostly rehashed content, the formula is getting old. Plus, too many characters. 6/10"

If you thought speculation was fun, just wait 'til you read that comments section.

 

[LetterO]

View attachment 170843
My predictions for the final direct:
The direct will be next week
- Begins with Incineroar and Ken trailer. The two fire wielding fighters fight each other. Also new stage Ultra Space with Ultra Beasts as stage hazards.
- 2 echo fighter reveals like Chrom and Dark Samus - Dixie and Shadow
- Spirits mode detailed.
- Other single player modes (maybe break the targets?)
- Stage builder detailed.
- Minecraft assist and stage shown.
- Final reveal is Geno with a recreation of the Smash 64 opening. New Mario RPG stage.
- Direct ends with a brand new Godlike Melee like opening with all the characters in it at the end the announcer yells SUPER SMASH BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This except I'd also slip in Chorus Kids.

 

[doomedtacox]

I'd be more inclined to believe any character after #69 just simply wouldn't be on the box rather than have any kinda spotlight on the back of the box for whatever reason over any other characters.

But the opposite holds true, too, doesn't it? Why skip them?

The reason is that they're the last couple to be revealed, so the "order" would still be preserved. For example I could easily see Shadow and Steve be on the back with a little blurb about them. Steve especially would deserve that honor being a crossover from Microsoft, which is a big deal. Now this is a assuming the box isn't just a concept which I'm not sure of in the first place.

 

[PLATINUM7]

IGN: "Mostly rehashed content, the formula is getting old. Plus, too many characters. 6/10"

If you thought speculation was fun, just wait 'til you read that comments section.

You at least gotta get the number right.

IGN- 7.8/10 Too much content.

 

[CosmicQuark]

View attachment 170843
My predictions for the final direct:
The direct will be next week
- Begins with Incineroar and Ken trailer. The two fire wielding fighters fight each other. Also new stage Ultra Space with Ultra Beasts as stage hazards.
- 2 echo fighter reveals like Chrom and Dark Samus - Dixie and Shadow
- Spirits mode detailed.
- Other single player modes (maybe break the targets?)
- Stage builder detailed.
- Minecraft assist and stage shown.
- Final reveal is Geno with a recreation of the Smash 64 opening. New Mario RPG stage.
- Direct ends with a brand new Godlike Melee like opening with all the characters in it at the end the announcer yells SUPER SMASH BROTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll try it out with my optimistic predictions if we have one more Direct left.

- Opens with Banjo & Kazooie (#69), reveals their stage (with Gruntilda as a boss), assist trophy (Mumbo Jumbo), and music.
- Echo fighters: Ken (#60e) and Shadow (#38e).
- Alt costumes are shown off, bragging about how many different options.
- Other modes are detailed including online.
- Items, Assist trophies, Pokemon summons.
- Incineroar (#70) is revealed.
- Story Mode is revealed--not called Spirits.
- Minecraft is shown with a stage and assist (e.g., Creeper), similar to Monster Hunter.
- Final reveal: Geno (#71) and the poster is completed.

Characters:
38e. Shadow
60e. Ken
69. Banjo & Kazooie
70. Incineroar
71. Geno

Stages:
104. Banjo-Kazooie
105. Sun and Moon
106. Monster Hunter (with Rathalos assist)
107. Minecraft (with Creeper assist)
108. Super Mario RPG

I don't think this is how the Direct will go--I only have the August Direct to draw parallels, but I can see them doing something different. Also depending on your taste, Banjo and Geno could be flipped, but I feel like there's enough from Banjo-Kazooie to warrant a Simon-like in-depth exploration. There's more characters I'd like to include that I feel have some potential--Dixie, Skull Kid, Bandana Waddle Dee. But given the rumors and the time constraints, I feel like this is as optimistic I can be. And even then I feel like I'm pushing it. Hopefully whatever's in store, it'll come with many unexpected surprises.

 

[Shroob]

My one belief for the final Direct is simple:

"We've never had more than 2, non-echo newcomers, shown off in the same Direct", which is why I'm keeping my belief split for a 2-2, 2 newcomers, 2 echos.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I don't see anything lining up with box theory, especially because it's fundamentally flawed without knowing what's on the back, as the last couple characters could have more of a spotlight there. I've seen alot of people say "the longer we go without any news, the more likely box theory is correct" and personally I don't agree with that as we still have one direct left. Personally I don't think it's logical that there would only be 1 unique character (Incineroar) left in the entire final direct.

Now, what box theory does indicate to me is that we have AT LEAST two characters left, which isn't too helpful because I believe Vergaben anyways.

I think the fundamental flaw is more in the hyper-focus on the internal logic of the box theory itself, while eschewing other pieces of evidence such as other leaked characters from Vergeben and others, Tansut’s new statements, the implausibility of Nintendo releasing a render that can be used to deduce the size of the roster, etc.

In these cases, usually explanations need to be invented, such as the possibility that the leakers have access to information about DLC characters, which seems unlikely to me. And Vergeben himself only said this was a possibility BECAUSE he was asked about the box theory, not because of anything his sources actually told him. Generally when explanations like this need to be proposed in order to reconcile a theory, it becomes shakier to me. It seems more likely to me that the other leaked characters and elements like “Minecraft content” are just in the game. But we’ll see.

 

[Master of Fire]

I'll try it out with my optimistic predictions if we have one more Direct left.

- Opens with Banjo & Kazooie (#69), reveals their stage (with Gruntilda as a boss), assist trophy (Mumbo Jumbo), and music.
- Echo fighters: Ken (#60e) and Shadow (#38e).
- Alt costumes are shown off, bragging about how many different options.
- Other modes are detailed including online.
- Items, Assist trophies, Pokemon summons.
- Incineroar (#70) is revealed.
- Story Mode is revealed--not called Spirits.
- Minecraft is shown with a stage and assist (e.g., Creeper), similar to Monster Hunter.
- Final reveal: Geno (#71) and the poster is completed.

Characters:
38e. Shadow
60e. Ken
69. Banjo & Kazooie
70. Incineroar
71. Geno

Stages:
104. Banjo-Kazooie
105. Sun and Moon
106. Monster Hunter (with Rathalos assist)
107. Minecraft (with Creeper assist)
108. Super Mario RPG

I don't think this is how the Direct will go--I only have the August Direct to draw parallels, but I can see them doing something different. Also depending on your taste, Banjo and Geno could be flipped, but I feel like there's enough from Banjo-Kazooie to warrant a Simon-like in-depth exploration. There's more characters I'd like to include that I feel have some potential--Dixie, Skull Kid, Bandana Waddle Dee. But given the rumors and the time constraints, I feel like this is as optimistic I can be. And even then I feel like I'm pushing it. Hopefully whatever's in store, it'll come with many unexpected surprises.

Story mode not called spirits? I'm curious what makes you say that?

 

[Impa4Smash]

My one belief for the final Direct is simple:

"We've never had more than 2, non-echo newcomers, shown off in the same Direct", which is why I'm keeping my belief split for a 2-2, 2 newcomers, 2 echos.

You would think if they had more than 2 they would reveal one in a trailer this month (assuming the direct is in Nov now) a la Lucina/Robin

 

[staindgrey]

Game of the Year nominees will be:

• Marvel's Spider-Man (PS4)
• Monster Hunter World
• God of War
• Red Dead Redemption 2
• Detroit: Become Human Assassin's Creed Odyssey

This year is pretty much gonna be a PlayStation sweep. Everywhere else will probably be dominated by Nintendo. However, 2019? If Metroid, Animal Crossing and/or Bayonetta join Smash for Nintendo's side, 2019 will be a 3 or 4/5th's Nintendo.

No matter what, Smash Ultimate will be a GOTY nominee next year, but Sakurai better win a ****ing industry icon award sooner or later. He deserves it more than Kojima, and Kojima even bows under Sakurai.

Fixed that for ya. Even as a fan of David Cage's games, Detroit was too hamfisted, even when coming in expecting a bunch of hams and fists.

Dragonball FighterZ will probably get a mention as well despite being a fighting game (which never gets considered for GOTY) just because of its DBZ appeal, its absurd immediate popularity and the fact that it didn't fail to meet up to its own hype. Something I really believe RDR2 won't do.

 

[Deleted member]

You would think if they had more than 2 they would reveal one in a trailer this month (assuming the direct is in Nov now) a la Lucina/Robin

I think it's more saving Ken as the last Echo, heck, saving only one Echo for the end is just very odd and goes against what they've been doing so far. Echos receive such little fanfare already. If he's the only one left, why not show him off sooner with the others, or with Isabelle? It would be really weird IMO, and kinda poorly handled.

 

[Shroob]

I think it's more saving Ken as the last Echo, heck, saving only one Echo for the end is just very odd and goes against what they've been doing so far. Echo's receive such little fanfare already. If he's the only one left, why not show him off sooner with the others, or with Isabelle? It would be really weird IMO, and kinda poorly handled.

Well so far, the only times that we've gotten Echoes have been in Smash Directs.

That, and 'with Isabelle' wouldn't have made any sense, due to how they handled her reveal.

 

[CosmicQuark]

My one belief for the final Direct is simple:

"We've never had more than 2, non-echo newcomers, shown off in the same Direct", which is why I'm keeping my belief split for a 2-2, 2 newcomers, 2 echos.

Which is why in my post I made note it was *optimistic* predictions, *if* we only had one Direct--those clarifications are important. But constraining to only two is boring, as all we'd be doing is rehashing Verge's rumors. It may only be what Verge rumored--or there may be stuff he missed. And for all we know, Banjo or the Minecraft content could be saved for X18 (though we all know how predicting Smash content in other venues goes).

I think the fundamental flaw is more in the hyper-focus on the internal logic of the box theory itself, while eschewing other pieces of evidence such as other leaked characters from Vergeben and others, Tansut’s new statements, the implausibility of Nintendo releasing a render that can be used to deduce the size of the roster, etc.

In these cases, usually explanations need to be invented, such as the possibility that the leakers have access to information about DLC characters, which seems unlikely to me. And Vergeben himself only said this was a possibility BECAUSE he was asked about the box theory, not because of anything his sources actually told him. Generally when explanations like this need to be proposed in order to reconcile a theory, it becomes shakier to me. It seems more likely to me that the other leaked characters and elements like “Minecraft content” are just in the game. But we’ll see.

Agreed, I feel like Box Theory has to twist itself into so many knots in order for it to make any sense. That doesn't mean it can't be true, and I have to give it props for being the only fan theory not destroyed or severely undermined. I feel like it makes much more sense that the rumored characters are simply in the game--the simplest explanation.

Story mode not called spirits? I'm curious what makes you say that?

Much like Box Theory, I think the game designers and marketing department are smarter than people think. It's fairly easy to recognize people could unblur the mode, and so it's easy and makes sense to use a placeholder name so that if it is uncovered, it doesn't spoil what it is (and there's no reason why they cannot use the same placeholder name in both the English and Japanese versions of the Direct). And yes, they've made "slip ups" in the past, but that's usually because they weren't aware of something to hide, whereas with the box and the green mode they are actively trying to hide it.

Aesthetically, it doesn't sound like a mode title, but it does sound like a placeholder--and who knows, maybe it does refer vaguely to what the mode is about. But that's the problem with the name--it's vague. It doesn't have the traditional aspects of something like "Adventure Mode' or the oomph of "Subspace Emissary". It's bland in comparison. I always have to leave open the possibility that it is called Spirits--but then I'd have to question their judgment.

 

[Deleted member]

Well so far, the only times that we've gotten Echoes have been in Smash Directs.

That, and 'with Isabelle' wouldn't have made any sense, due to how they handled her reveal.

They've been shown in batches so far, though. Breaking that now just feels off to me, but hey, I could be wrong.

He could've been shown with Isabelle if they had it as part of a Smash section, but granted, that would indeed not flow well with the AC Switch reveal at the end.

 

[Impa4Smash]

I think it's more saving Ken as the last Echo, heck, saving only one Echo for the end is just very odd and goes against what they've been doing so far. Echos receive such little fanfare already. If he's the only one left, why not show him off sooner with the others, or with Isabelle? It would be really weird IMO, and kinda poorly handled.

I was talking about more than 2 unique characters

 

[Shroob]

Which is why in my post I made note it was *optimistic* predictions, *if* we only had one Direct--those clarifications are important. But constraining to only two is boring, as all we'd be doing is rehashing Verge's rumors. It may only be what Verge rumored--or there may be stuff he missed. And for all we know, Banjo or the Minecraft content could be saved for X18 (though we all know how predicting Smash content in other venues goes).

I mean, not really. We could theoretically still have 2-3 Echoes, Verg's track record with Echoes is ****.


Or hell, we get a newcomer that Verg didn't know about and the SE rep could be DLC.

 

[Idon]

I hope they announce that they'll be working on DLC in the next direct as well (assuming it's the final one, of course)

My worst fears would be them saying "This is the definitive Smash roster, no one else is important enough to add, good night!"

Plus, it'd finally get us off the base roster speculation which we've been stuck with ever since that box.

 

[Deleted member]

I was talking about more than 2 unique characters

Ooooooh, okay I get ya now, lol. TBH I could see Incineroar being the last unique, it's Ken as the final Echo I doubt.

 

[Impa4Smash]

Ooooooh, okay I get ya now, lol. TBH I could see Incineroar being the last unique, it's Ken as the final Echo I doubt.

I would just be shocked if Shadow wasn't in. Like talk about an easy - but also massively fanservice-y - echo

 

[Deleted member]

I would just be shocked if Shadow wasn't in. Like talk about an easy - but also massively fanservice-y - echo

Same. He has all the same stuff Isabelle had going for her. If Shadow isn't in at this point, I'm gonna be legitimately surprised.

 

[Impa4Smash]

I hope they announce that they'll be working on DLC in the next direct as well (assuming it's the final one, of course)

My worst fears would be them saying "This is the definitive Smash roster, no one else is important enough to add, good night!"

Plus, it'd finally get us off the base roster speculation which we've been stuck with ever since that box.

There's one big reason that would never happen

Spoiler

 

[Deleted member]

I would just be shocked if Shadow wasn't in. Like talk about an easy - but also massively fanservice-y - echo

I can't wrap my head around why Shadow wouldn't be in, especially with Richter and Ken being Echoes.

The only possibility I can think of is that he is instead not an Echo and is for whatever reason, saved for DLC.

 

[Impa4Smash]

Shadow Joins the Damn Battle!

Give his echo splash screen a little flair

 

[Shroob]

And here I am thinking that since Echoes are revealed in bunches from the look of it, Sakurai's just gonna reveal both Shadow and Ken while pointing out that they're 'special additions'(3rd party).

 

[osby]

And here I am thinking that since Echoes are revealed in bunches from the look of it, Sakurai's just gonna reveal both Shadow and Ken while pointing out that they're 'special additions'(3rd party).

Makes sense but... was there leak or something? Why people are acting like Shadow is a lock?

 

[Shroob]

Makes sense but... was there leak or something? Why people are acting like Shadow is a lock?

Shadow's actually never been leaked funnily enough, it's just people something have assumed since E3 due to his assist trophy missing like Dark Samus and Isabelle's(And a whole bunch of no-hopers).

 

[staindgrey]

Makes sense but... was there leak or something? Why people are acting like Shadow is a lock?

Not to my knowledge. He's just one of the most obvious echo characters, considering he's Dark Sonic.

It would be odd if Richter and Chrom made it in but not Shadow. I'm not a Shadow fan myself; just would seem odd.

 

[osby]

Not to my knowledge. He's just one of the most obvious echo characters, considering he's Dark Sonic.

It would be odd if Richter and Chrom made it in but not Shadow. I'm not a Shadow fan myself; just would seem odd.

I can get why it might seem that why but SEGA isn't Konami or Nintendo. I think he has a pretty good chance but it seems weird comparing third party characters with each other or Nintendo ones.

 

[Deleted member]

Shadow's actually never been leaked funnily enough, it's just people something have assumed since E3 due to his assist trophy missing like Dark Samus and Isabelle's(And a whole bunch of no-hopers).

Not just missing, but seemingly replaced. By He Who Doesn't Chuckle.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Shadow Joins the Damn Battle!

Give his echo splash screen a little flair

While I think Shadow could make a really interesting echo, with some chaos control aspects, it would be such a shame not to have an HD Smash recreation of Sonic and Shadow's first showdown. I'd also love a Sonic stage set in space, or at the very least Radical Highway--instead we get Windy Hill returning, and no Pac-Maze. Oof.

And also I feel like Shadow and Dixie are deserving of being unique characters, given their abilities from their games could easily separate them enough from their counterparts. But the same could be said of Dark Samus, and it feels like after Isabelle, sadly, the main consideration between unique and echos is their body proportions rather than what they can do in their games.

EDIT:

I can get why it might seem that why but SEGA isn't Konami or Nintendo. I think he has a pretty good chance but it seems weird comparing third party characters with each other or Nintendo ones.

I feel like out of all the characters not rumored by Verge, Shadow's the most likely (yes, even more so than Banjo). His assist trophy is currently MIA, seemingly replaced by Knuckles (though not necessarily), and unlike Skull Kid/Tingle, makes an easy echo. I feel like those two combined make Shadow the most likely non-rumored character. And I hope, at the very least, we get one character not rumored by Verge.

 

[Fenriraga]

My "way too optimistic but still at least somewhat based in reality I guess" prediction comes down to:

-Incineroar and Geno
-Ken and Shadow Echoes
-Spirits Mode ends up being a massive Boss Rush, the "Spirits" of powerful foes throughout all of gaming who hold most of the fighters captive.
-Two more modes return: Smash Run, and Melee's Adventure Mode with a fresh coat of paint (And a few hidden goodies such more enemy variety pulled from Smash Run and hidden battles with characters not from Melee's cast)
-Online details, with a much more extensive 1 on 1 mode with "seasons", a rotating list of legal stages complete with stage striking and leaderboards (The Warp Pipiest of Pipe Dreams), or at least "Online Tournaments" with much more customizable options ala Mario Kart 8
-DLC cosmetics and costumes for fighters planned for sometime after launch
-We get a tease of out first potential DLC fighter, ala Mewtwo

Expectation: Incineroar Ken and probably Geno that's all folks bye Spirits Mode was a jape

 

[Shroob]

Not just missing, but seemingly replaced. By He Who Doesn't Chuckle.

I mean, so is Elec Man.

 

[Deleted member]

I mean, so is Elec Man.

Elec Man isn't the second most popular character in his franchise nor has been a big topic for Smash since the Brawl days.

 

[Shroob]

Elec Man isn't the second most popular character in his franchise nor has been a big topic for Smash since the Brawl days.

Yeah, but sometimes Assists just, get cut.



*Cries in Isaac*

 

[Dee Dude]

Yeah, I can’t see Shadow being a lock. He’s always been requested but his massive demand only begun as soon as Sakurai started the Echo craze.

And this is coming from someone who supports him now because of it, let’s not forget Elec Man isn’t seen in action either.

He could get in if Sakurai sees the recent requests and adds Shad at the last minute.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah, but sometimes Assists just, get cut.



*Cries in Isaac*

No offense, but Shadow being missing is a much bigger deal than Isaac.
Shadow's been around for two Smash titles as an Assist, is the second most popular character in the Sonic franchise after Sonic himself, and is nowhere to be seen while a different Sonic character takes the Assist role.

The only Assists that "just get cut" are those that are either promoted to playable character (Little Mac, Isabelle, Dark Samus), wouldn't work on Smash 3DS, were overall cumbersome, and/or are only relevant to that era they were Assists in (Jill and Ray MK III being good examples here).

 

[Impa4Smash]

Yeah, I can’t see Shadow being a lock. He’s always been requested but his massive demand only begun as soon as Sakurai started the Echo craze.

And this is coming from someone who supports him now because of it, let’s not forget Elec Man isn’t seen in action either.

He could get in if Sakurai sees the recent requests and adds Shad at the last minute.

I’m not a Shadow or Sonic fan by any means but Sakurai would 100% know Shadow was popular way before he introduced the concept of echoes

 

[Shroob]

No offense, but Shadow being missing is a much bigger deal than Isaac.
Shadow's been around for two Smash titles as an Assist, is the second most popular character in the Sonic franchise after Sonic himself, and is nowhere to be seen while a different Sonic character takes the Assist role.

The only Assists that "just get cut" are those that are either promoted to playable character (Little Mac, Isabelle, Dark Samus), wouldn't work on Smash 3DS, were overall cumbersome, and/or are only relevant to that era they were Assists in (Jill and Ray MK III being good examples here).

At this point, it's wait and see.

We have over 10 assists still missing from 4, and we just don't know if Shadow was outright cut, is still there and 3rd parties actually can have 2 assists, or got upgraded to playable.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah, I can’t see Shadow being a lock. He’s always been requested but his massive demand only begun as soon as Sakurai started the Echo craze.

And this is coming from someone who supports him now because of it, let’s not forget Elec Man isn’t seen in action either.

He could get in if Sakurai sees the recent requests and adds Shad at the last minute.

Shadow isn't a recent request by any means. He's had a huge Smash following ever since Sonic got in. Heck, he was even one of the top characters for modding back in the Brawl days.