Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Cutie Gwen]

Does Geno even need his own CGI trailer? I feel like he’d make perfect DLC imo.

I mean, literally nobody needed a CGI trailer. It's something REALLY cool though so it's more desirable. Especially with Ridley and Belmonts having fantastic ones

 

[osby]

If Geno isn't in the game at all, there is still going to be so much unnecessary salt. People are going to act like Sakurai promised them something and ignore a third party character hardly can be lock.

I hope he'll join the fray, though.

 

[Diddy Kong]

You know, the Ken theory is strong and all, but guess which characters are ALSO showed at the other side of the infamous theory box? Diddy and Sheik! That means that the idea of Dixie and Impa as Echoes, or hopefully more than that, still lives.

Which is great, cause Dixie and Impa are easily more excitable than Ken.

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

 

[Deleted member]

I can see stuff like Crash bandicot, Dark Souls Character,

These are the exact same thing though...

 

[TMNTSSB4]

EVO was actually really fun. It was nice seeing competitive players having fun for a change.

I think you’re the first person to have liked the Bayos having fun

Does Geno even need his own CGI trailer? I feel like he’d make perfect DLC imo.

no...but CGI trailers are hype

Neither were Mr. Game & Watch, Wolf/Toon Link, or Duck Hunt, but those were the last reveals that we got for the last three games.

Duck Hunt was hype...and so was the technical final reveal Bayonetta

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

SO. Box Theory. This is going to be a large post that I am going to link people to from now on to describe this thing.

This is the box. Why is it so important. For one, it is the special edition box art for the release of Super Smash Bros Ultimate. The game that claims "Everyone is here" and is spouting a massive roster of characters. If you have been following the blog posts and press releases, the major focus of this game is the characters. We have some of the most requested characters released (Ridley, K Rool and Simon) as well as all older characters returning.
The focus on characters is evident by the side of the box and all the marketing, showing off all the characters in a massive wall paper as well as through the collection of images. Why is the box theory here, Lets start breaking down the concept. Since characters are such a focus, it makes sense to put them everywhere.
We were told by Nintendo and Sakurai that this time around, we would know all characters before the release of the game. Every known playable character will be known. If the game is celebrating the characters, and we know everyone will be present, then saying a character will be excluded from the special edition of the game box makes no sense.

Lets break down the sides. There are groupings of 9 as the the box moves down, with each group alternating from side to side. A good graphic that was made on this forum shows it well.
View attachment 164639
There are 32 on each side of the box. One can argue about Nintendo not caring about numbering before, but they do care about solid look and feel. The only argument that can be made against this design is that the best for last will be on the back. But given the hype cycle, how is Ridley, Simon and Cloud not considered the best? That does not make sense. All characters are being treated as equals. We see it by the one side we have.

I would agree that Smash does not care for the exact number of fighters. But it also has to be seen by breakdown. The fans consider Ivysaur, Squirtle and Charizard as separate movesets, but Nintendo does not. The Mii fighters are considered separate characters even though in the CSS, they share the same space. So the actual number is a mess. And Echos are new characters, but do not go against the official numbering. It is odd. We can say though that the CSS has a visual dynamic to it.

Speaking of CSS
View attachment 164640
View attachment 164641

The CSS will have some look to it. If you look at N64, it was a perfect rectangle of 12. Melee had an almost perfect rectangle, with two symmetrical holes on either side. It cause a stir to no end and I am positive it had an effect on how the CSS was designed since then. Brawl was again a perfect rectangle with Random now getting its own space. Smash4 is an odd one. The 3ds looks weird with the base roster, but it looks great on the Wii U. On the flip side, if we look at it with the original intended DLC lineup, the 3DS screen would have been a perfect rectangle with everyone on the screen no problem. The Wii U is the same after DLC. With the addition of Corrin, the perfectness of the item was tarnished, but they made it work.
Why go into all that. The CSS plays a part into the argument.

With the Box hinting at 2 more, the CSS can have tons of meaning, especially with the pure focus on character order. The rows can almost be broken down by game perfectly. Even expanded keeps it close enough, with most of the unique newcomers being pushed to a new row for ultimate alone. Does this mean the CSS will be like that. No. It does not. Could be much different.

Sakurai said not to expect to many newcomers. They did add in everyone from previous games with many changes to each. Most people predicted 6 or so newcomers. As a rough estimate.
Inkling
Ridley
Simon
K Rool
Isabelle
(6th one)

As for echos, it was obvious that they were not having to many newcomers this time around. Best is to pad the roster. And since they were masters at marketing, they are able to get away with inflating their numbers with little effort (which I am fine with. no complaints here.) They are not some kind of master plan. Just a way to make a larger roster to keep excitement. It also lends to easy DLC later.

Given all this circumstantial evidence, it makes sense to assume only 2 more characters. Given all this, lets look at arguments against the theory.

1) We have 2 months to the direct. There has to be more.
A) No. We can skip October entirely. We skipped July. Nothing says they need to have a direct. They could easily do a 50 fact early November. Nothing states we need a character in October.

2) There has to be more. They cannot end on such a weak final Character as [Insert character here]
A) Yes they can. They ended the September Direct with Isabelle. They also have ended past games with weak final characters also. Olimar and Shulk are not big names. Nintendo has a history of having weak end games with release info.

3) The boxart releases all the information to early. It spoils everything. It has to be fake.
A) Nintendo has spoiled things in the past. They released Lucario and Ganondorf by mistake before in promotional materials. Fire Emblem Warriors Box art also spoiled all the characters in that game also. It happens. As for people arguing that it is just a photoshop that can be changed later. I ask them, why so much effort. Why start with Luigi, character 9 and then have sets of 9 alternating from side to side. Why do that if it is a temp piece that will be replaced. This is an image on Amazon that is used for selling that product. I doubt drastic changes are in place. Certain pieces of info can be omitted, but not a heavy redesign.

4) There has to be atleast 3 more. It makes no sense to have 2 left with so much time.
A) Well. If I remember Smash4 50 fact. Mewtwo was the DLC hype character at the end and we had only 2 from that, that were in the base game. It was more focused on the game itself then the characters (which can be a contradiction if you think about it. But last direct was similar.) I expect a similar thing, discussing modes, Spirits, online and DLC. We do not know everything about the game yet, with the 2 blurred spots on the menu screen being an example. The direct will not just be about characters.

5) There are 108 stages. There has to be more characters coming with them.
A) No it doesn't, Adding in another stage for Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Splatoon and even some of the missed Older smash stages is a possibility. It does not mean another character. It just means more stages.

From all this, (and more will be added as I see it), all the math is pointing to there being only 2 left.

If you want to disagree, fine. But do not just say you disagree. Give proof of the opposite. Show me that the CSS can have meaning and not look like crap with 1-3 more characters outside of the predicted 2. Show me what the box can look like with its current design. If you think the character portraits will shrink on the sides. Prove it. Make a mock in the CSS creator. Give us an idea.

Just saying you do not agree and believing it is crap "because of a feeling" is not acceptable. I have given images and logic to back up the only to more idea. Prove me wrong.

Thanks for this.

I think it's also important to add, that Sakurai didn't build the roster for the box. He built the roster he wanted. Marketing had to fit it to the box, and guess what they had multiple ways. They could have done miis seperately, not show echoes, seperate PT, or any combination. Instead they put it the best way that fit on the box.

Just wanted to add they didn't build the roster around the box. The other way around, and marketing had many options to make it work.

 

[SquashiniKun]

it looks like we're going to have to accept the box theory the same way as we accept death.

 

[MSmariosonic]

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

That's a weird way of spelling 'Akuma'

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

I drew this to Celebrate Isabelle! Is it good?

 

[Dandelionel]

Sakurai is clearly balancing the roster around harcore and casual audiences:

Hardcore: Ridley, King K. Rool, Simon, Richter, Dark Samus, Chrom

Casual: Inklings, Isabelle, Daisy, Ken and Incineroar (if it happens)

So I don't think it's fair to give him flack when he is clearly trying to appeal both worlds. Just because you don't like some choices, it doesn't mean that everyone else does, specially the silent majority who I'm sure would prefer Incineroar over niche choices like Geno.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

...

...

So I sign back on this morning, and I find there are over 40 new pages. We haven't been talking about the Box/Goku this much have we?

So based on new info:

• Vergeben doubles down on Incineroar and Ken
• There are 108 stages as stated by Coro Coro

Do I have all of that?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

View attachment 164648
I drew this to Celebrate Isabelle! Is it good?

It’s cute!

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

We're over the box theory I think. At least for now. That theory is one of the dumbest I've heard.
-
Also, wow, Mr. Green-Haired Boy, your post is SO long, but read this: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77004278 The TC counters the box and says that it means nothing. I hate to say it, but I agree with the TC in the thread. The theory is one of the dumbest I've heard in a while.

The. Box. Theory. Is. Not. Disproven. It can survive at the same time as 108 stages does. Not to mention, Coro Coro is the only magazine with 108. Apparently another magazine states there are 103 stages rather than 108. It could absolutely be a misprint.

I'm not naming anyone specific, because I really can't say why or what reasoning people use to disprove it, and to an extent it's ok to disagree with certain things. I am getting the feeling that the current reaction to all of this is that the "box theory" is "disproven" because a lot of us want it to be disproven. That's...not a good way to go about it.

There is NO SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE to come to the conclusion AT THIS POINT IN TIME that the box theory is disproven by 108 stages. There is no connection until a character is revealed that isn't Ken or Incineroar. Vergeben, who has been right about numerous other things already, has doubled down on Ken and Incineroar already.

It is not a "dumb theory". It's based on inferences, which in turn are based on information in front of us, as well as information from a leaker who, at this point, has been spot on.

Not to mention, the pattern in which the characters are hypothetically split up would insinuate a character on the other side of the box would have to be in-between Palutena and Cloud, which Ken would fit. Leaving one spot left, and the not yet wrong Vergeben claiming Incineroar alongside Ken, it fits.

Not trying to be rude, but please read everything and don't just disregard something as "dumb".
---
drag0nscythe if you could, please credit me at least for the roster mock-up in the roster maker that I created. Please and thank you!

 

[Deleted member]

You know, the Ken theory is strong and all, but guess which characters are ALSO showed at the other side of the infamous theory box? Diddy and Sheik! That means that the idea of Dixie and Impa as Echoes, or hopefully more than that, still lives.

Which is great, cause Dixie and Impa are easily more excitable than Ken.

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

Sadly, this is impossible. It’s not the characters on the side that point to Ken, it’s that based on how the characters are arranged, the remaining echo is between Palutena and Cloud.

 

[drag0nscythe]

We're over the box theory I think. At least for now. That theory is one of the dumbest I've heard.
-
Also, wow, Mr. Green-Haired Boy, your post is SO long, but read this: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77004278 The TC counters the box and says that it means nothing. I hate to say it, but I agree with the TC in the thread. The theory is one of the dumbest I've heard in a while.

I saw nothing in it excpect the argument of living art. You know the box is not finished. There are blank spaces. IT is living also. living for 2 more. He did not add anything. Again, show me how the missing characters will fit into everything.

And it is not a boy. It is Yae from Goemon.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

I want you to try something real quick.

Take that sentence, and replace 'Ken' with one of your most wanted characters.

If you wouldn't really like someone telling you that, maybe you should chill out.

 

[Originality]

You know, the Ken theory is strong and all, but guess which characters are ALSO showed at the other side of the infamous theory box? Diddy and Sheik! That means that the idea of Dixie and Impa as Echoes, or hopefully more than that, still lives.

Which is great, cause Dixie and Impa are easily more excitable than Ken.

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

That's not how it works, the echo would need to be from Palutena, Pac-Man, Robin, Shulk, Bowser Jr., Duck Hunt, Ryu, or Cloud. Ken makes the most sense from the choices given

 

[osby]

it looks like we're going to have to accept the box theory the same way as we accept death.

Box is not a hunter unbeknowst to its prey. One is always aware that it lies in wait. Though speculation is merely a journey to the box, it must not be undertaken without hope. Only then will a fan's story live on, treasured by those who bid him farewell.

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

It’s cute!

Thanks! I’m testing out a new art style, so thanks for the compliment!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I want you to try something real quick.

Take that sentence, and replace 'Ken' with one of your most wanted characters.

If you wouldn't really like someone telling you that, maybe you should chill out.

I mean tbf Impa is an overrated choice

 

[NextChannelGames]

Why would someone from Dairy Queen be in Smash? That’s crazy talk, my friend.

Dairy Queen would be great! What food would like to order?

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

As much as I think the box theory is dumb, there will always be chair theory, the pinnacle of reaching. I've said my piece on box theory--if it is true and not a placeholder, it's a stupid design choice to order them by number, except skip some in the middle to enforce a 9 slot patter with 6 slots per row. As someone who was happy Ultimate is finally ordering characters by their appearance (I can easily spot my character from my memory of past games), that was the first thing I noticed. On the box, Zelda isn't after Sheik, Roy is? Then it's a dumb box.

You know, the Ken theory is strong and all, but guess which characters are ALSO showed at the other side of the infamous theory box? Diddy and Sheik! That means that the idea of Dixie and Impa as Echoes, or hopefully more than that, still lives.

Which is great, cause Dixie and Impa are easily more excitable than Ken.

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

I'm sorry but both of your posts imply you don't understand how the box pattern works.

1. Zelda is not next to Shiek because it goes by every 9 characters. Roy is in the next set of 9. If you're saying it's weird they aren't next to each other, why? ZSS and Samus are the same character and aren't next to each other.
2. The echo has to be between Palutena and Cloud because that's the section that is only 8 characters instead of 9. Impa and Dixie, unfortunately, aren't possible.

Also for those pointing out why would they give marketing the roster details...they don't have to. They just needed to tell them where to keep blanks spots. Also, I don't think it's that crazy that Nintendo's own marketing team would know the whole roster. Third party companies are creating the cgi trailers which are made in advance, so they know the roster. Why wouldn't Nintendo's own marketing team not know but other companies would?

 

[osby]

Thanks for this.

I think it's also important to add, that Sakurai didn't build the roster for the box. He built the roster he wanted. Marketing had to fit it to the box, and guess what they had multiple ways. They could have done miis seperately, not show echoes, seperate PT, or any combination. Instead they put it the best way that fit on the box.

Just wanted to add they didn't build the roster around the box. The other way around, and marketing had many options to make it work.

*implying newcomers aren't picked to make CSS look nice*

 

[Pakky]

View attachment 164644 he said this.

I knew my boy was in called this months ago. When I first started making icons.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

In light of Isabelle being in Smash, I've decided to update that list I made some time ago concerning newcomer debuts by year just for fun and comparison.

• Ridley: 1986
• Simon Belmont: 1986
• Daisy: 1989
• Richter Belmont: 1993
• K. Rool: 1994
• Dark Samus: 2002
• Chrom: 2012
• Isabelle: 2012
• Inkling: 2015

3 characters from the 80's, 2 from the 90's, 1 from the 00's and 3 from the 10's.

Speaking of Isabelle, when are we getting her icon?

 

[DJ3DS]

You know, the Ken theory is strong and all, but guess which characters are ALSO showed at the other side of the infamous theory box? Diddy and Sheik! That means that the idea of Dixie and Impa as Echoes, or hopefully more than that, still lives.

Which is great, cause Dixie and Impa are easily more excitable than Ken.

Not sorry Ken supporters, this character is hugely overrated anyway.

No, you've just misunderstood the theory. It goes in alternating sets of 9 in every part except one interval between Palutena and Cloud, meaning an additional echo would need to be there.

The box theory actually goes against both Dixie and Impa, which is quite funny given how confrontational you made this post.

 

[SmashChu]

These seem like flawed comparisons, particularly the part about Nintendo making more money off of Breath of the Wild and Xenoblade season passes compared to Smash and Mario Kart 8 DLC. The season passes are about four or five times more expensive than individual Smash characters or stages (it reminds me of the claim made in the early days of the Gamecube that Luigi's Mansion made more money in its first day than the first Harry Potter movie made on opening weekend while ignoring the fact that Harry Potter tickets didn't cost $50 each), and they're on a console that is SIGNIFICANTLY more successful. (the Switch surpassed the Wii U's lifetime sales in its first year)

Launch titles like New Super Mario Bros. U make for an unfair comparison (many of them sell extremely well because they're almost no competition at the time - it's a big reason why games like Super Bomberman R and Ultra Street Fighter II sold as well as they did), and assuming you didn't make a typo, you're comparing a Wii U game's sales to the sales of Super Mario 3D Land, a 3DS game, where there's a massive difference in terms of install base. (plus Pokemon and Animal Crossing are much more casual games than Smash, so they're going to sell much better - it's part of what made Wii Fit, Tetris, the Sims, and Minecraft some of the best-selling franchises of all time)

---

As for your last point, there are plenty of good reasons. If a Venn Diagram was made of Smash fans and fans of specific Nintendo properties (Mario, Metroid, Animal Crossing, etc.), there would be plenty of overlap - anyone who's interested in one of those franchises would have likely played Smash Bros. at some point. The same couldn't be said for fans of franchises like Final Fantasy or Castlevania - they're franchises on classic Nintendo consoles, but nowadays, they're on just about everything. There wouldn't be as much overlap, so fans who moved to other consoles would see those characters in Smash, and that would get them interested in the game. (especially if it's a series like Mega Man that had been neglected for a few years)

The Switch's popularity also means that a lot of third party titles (every series in Smash aside from the Konami ones) have made their way to the system, so if someone likes Final Fantasy, plays Smash, and wants to learn more about Ryu, then they could get the Street Fighter anniversary collection.

It seems like a win-win - both Nintendo and the third party companies that are involved attract a broader audience. (plus, it's not like there are a ton of third party characters in the game - there's only nine of them, and that's spread out between eight different series)

Both Zelda and Xenoblade 2 DLC is 50 bucks in total. The DLC for Smash Wii U and 3DS, in total, cost about $73 (someone else did the calculation). If you bought just the characters and stages, its $53 dollars. So to say that "It made more money because its more expense" is incorrect. Moreoever, the numbers I'm comparing also include Mario Kart 8 DLC. If anything, it might have under performed. Note that the Wii U version is over 5 million and the 3DS is under 10 million (keep in mind, this doesn't consider double purchases). Zelda now is over 10 million and Xenoblade was at about 1 million at the end of FY 2017. So your comparison is wrong.

Ignoring New Super Mario Bros U and 3D World (it was a type BTW), look at Mario Kart 8 which sold far more than Smash. Most sales for games are made within the first few months (if not weeks or days). Nintendo games usually sell longer, but those games releasing sooner won't much a difference in the long run and the sales for both will eventually hit a sort of 0 point. Maybe you can say NSMBU was higher because it was a launch title, but if you look at sales, people were buying the system to get NSMBU, not the other way around.\

As for Smash increasing sales of other games, there doesn't seem to be much evidence of it happening. Supposedly it helped Bayonetta 2, but the sales of that game were still low even after that. It doesn't seem to create a large affect. If that the logic though, wouldn't Nintendo be better served promoting their own characters? They only get a licensing fee for the third party games. They get most of the revenue for their own games. If we are going by that logic, seems like Nintendo would be better served to do what I say and push their own characters to increase sales of their own games. Of course, this is assuming that even happens which I'm doubtful of.

Sure, but the reasoning didn't really hold up when Smash 4 or Brawl was leaked. "This can't possibly be the end" skeptics declared. Seriously there were plenty of theories then about linking the 3DS and Wii U versions to get more, or the "final five" if you remember that.

Smash 4 showed its whole roster plain as day. The reason people thought there would be more is because one of the leaked images had All Star "locked" implying all the characters weren't unlocked yet (true All Stars doesn't open until you have everyone). People are going off Verge (who could still be wrong) and a box. We don't know what the roster will look like until the game is in our hands, Nintendo confirms the roster or we get a credible leak.

 

[Deleted member]

*implying newcomers aren't picked to make CSS look nice*

There is no game, only a CSS filled with reps.

 

[osby]

View attachment 164648
I drew this to Celebrate Isabelle! Is it good?

She looks adorable in your style.

 

[DarkFalcon]

I'm imagining Vergeben being right again, but then people will still call him a fake. I can 100% see why he'd be ****** every time someone goes after him. Then they'll be like "omg Verge is an ass". When the constant prodding of him is probably why he's an ass.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

There is no game, only a CSS filled with reps.

True Blue Warrior WE DID IT! WE GOT DK REP IN THE GAME!

 

[SquashiniKun]

Box is not a hunter unbeknowst to its prey. One is always aware that it lies in wait. Though speculation is merely a journey to the box, it must not be undertaken without hope. Only then will a fan's story live on, treasured by those who bid him farewell.

I swear to Iwata, if this box theory thing is gonna end up with a war with the cult of the box fighting against the cult of corocoro, i'll be the first one to call it.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Also for those pointing out why would they give marketing the roster details...they don't have to. They just needed to tell them where to keep blanks spots. Also, I don't think it's that crazy that Nintendo's own marketing team would know the whole roster. Third party companies are creating the cgi trailers which are made in advance, so they know the roster. Why wouldn't Nintendo's own marketing team not know but other companies would?

Well at the very least the companies would know the character of the roster they're working with.

 

[drag0nscythe]

*implying newcomers aren't picked to make CSS look nice*

I posted a mock for a CSS. IT makes sense, it looks correct. IT matches all current information. Add a few to it. Make it make sense.
The ordering of the characters is what is used this time. As far as it matters, the number of characters is all it needs to make the CSS look pleasing. 72 does it. Which is nice.

Add another 1 or 2. Show us that it works well with them in place.

Each previous CSS had rhyme to it, even if we did not like it.

Melee had clones next to the originals.
Brawl had characters going down.
Smash 4 had the clone island and all characters in release order.
My CSS design has ll those little details and more. And fits with all current information outside of "I think there is more because I want more."

I want Goemon. and Bandana Dee. But I am being a realist here and assuming 72 is it before dlc.

 

[osby]

In light of Isabelle being in Smash, I've decided to update that list I made some time ago concerning newcomer debuts by year just for fun and comparison.

• Ridley: 1986
• Simon Belmont: 1986
• Daisy: 1989
• Richter Belmont: 1993
• K. Rool: 1994
• Dark Samus: 2002
• Chrom: 2012
• Isabelle: 2012
• Inkling: 2015

3 characters from the 80's, 2 from the 90's, 1 from the 00's and 3 from the 10's.

Speaking of Isabelle, when are we getting her icon?

It's cute that Isabelle is coeval with Awekening trio.

 

[T-Hell]

I still think a triple reveal with Skull Kid, Isaac and Geno in a trailer called "The Sun, The Moon and The Stars" makes too much sense, but maybe I just have a lot of imagination lol.
I really hope the CoroCoro 108 stage thing is true, just for the sake of potential newcomers.

 

[Guh-Huzzah!]

She looks adorable in your style.

Thanks. Should I keep it?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

There is no game, only a CSS filled with reps.

Everyone's been hyped over the DK Series Icon making it into Smash.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I'm sorry but both of your posts imply you don't understand how the box pattern works.

1. Zelda is not next to Shiek because it goes by every 9 characters. Roy is in the next set of 9. If you're saying it's weird they aren't next to each other, why? ZSS and Samus are the same character and aren't next to each other.
2. The echo has to be between Palutena and Cloud because that's the section that is only 8 characters instead of 9. Impa and Dixie, unfortunately, aren't possible.

Also for those pointing out why would they give marketing the roster details...they don't have to. They just needed to tell them where to keep blanks spots. Also, I don't think it's that crazy that Nintendo's own marketing team would know the whole roster. Third party companies are creating the cgi trailers which are made in advance, so they know the roster. Why wouldn't Nintendo's own marketing team not know but other companies would?

But Sheik would be the first character shown, so it's still possible.

 

[SquashiniKun]

If Verg is right about Ken and Incineroar being the last two characters, we should thank him.