Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Arcadenik]

Good morning. Are we still in the denial stage or have we moved onto the bargaining stage yet?

 

[Aurane]

Good morning. Are we still in the denial stage or have we moved onto the bargaining stage yet?

Nobody comes here to bargain. ;(

 

[Danpal65]

So I haven't had a chance to read through the swath of pages since the Direct, but has anyone brought up the fact Skull Kid may have actually been deconfirmed back in the August Smash Direct?

 

[Door Key Pig]

So I haven't had a chance to read through the swath of pages since the Direct, but has anyone brought up the fact Skull Kid may have actually been deconfirmed back in the August Smash Direct?

Ooh how?

 

[Mega Bidoof]

So I haven't had a chance to read through the swath of pages since the Direct, but has anyone brought up the fact Skull Kid may have actually been deconfirmed back in the August Smash Direct?

What? Explain yourself!

 

[Captain Fun]

Good morning. Are we still in the denial stage or have we moved onto the bargaining stage yet?

I still see people trying to debunk the theory with false equivalences so probably still denial.

Not that anyone knows for sure one way or another, but I can't help but notice that the people trying the hardest to debunk it just so happen to be the people who really don't want it to be the end for one reason or another.

I personally cant say for sure if the theory is true, but it does make sense.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

So I haven't had a chance to read through the swath of pages since the Direct, but has anyone brought up the fact Skull Kid may have actually been deconfirmed back in the August Smash Direct?

We’re too busy debating boxes.

 

[AzureFlame4]

Been at work for over 8 hours. Box theory disconfirmed or still going strong?

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Been at work for over 8 hours. Box theory disconfirmed or still going strong?

Entirely depends who you ask in here currently.

 

[MSmariosonic]

We need to ask someone with knowledge of boxes to solve this theory.

Anyone know the frequency of ?

 

[Danpal65]

Alright. So this was discussed over on the Source Gaming Discord (credit to TheFieryScar91 here) and if you look at the August Smash Direct trailer when the Moon is starting to fall down there is a sparkle that shows an Assist Trophy has just left the field on the left.

Spoiler: Moon in Direct

Now if you compare this to the Assist Trophy leaving animation from Lyn it is definitely the same thing:

Spoiler: Lyn Exit Animation

So the interesting thing about this is what Assist Trophy has just left. Now it is possible that a miniature Moon pops out of the Assist Trophy and then flies into the background, but there isn't anyone close enough to the sparkles for that to be the case and they're too high off of the ground.

So who else is tied to the Moon falling? That's right Skull Kid. This suggest that possibly Skull Kid comes out of the Assist Trophy, spends some time summoning the Moon and then disappears as it starts to fall. This is by no means a 100% deconfirmation, but it does suggest the possibility that he is part of the Moon Assist Trophy.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

We need to ask someone with knowledge of boxes to solve this theory.

Anyone know the frequency of ?

His answer.

 

[ChronoBound]

Isaac has had more consistent support than Geno, but Geno's support at its peak was significantly bigger than Isaac's has ever been. Isaac has pretty much been a tier 2 character in terms of support for his entire history in Smash speculation, where as Geno was at one point at the top, then plummeted to obscurity, and has now got back up again, although not quite to the same heights. It depends a bit on what you put emphasis on, I remember Geno's support better because he used to be that big, but I can see why others would remember Isaac's support more as he's been a subject of discussion much more consistently.

Neither get close to Ridley, K. Rool, Mega Man or Mewtwo, if we count him, so I do agree that there never was a trinity so to say, especially as K. Rool and Geno's support were never at their peaks simultaneously. Those four characters stood out among the rest post-Brawl, and nobody else even got close to joining that party.

Ashley was also at one point near the top for Ultimate and was featured in nearly every "leak". The Ashley thread was by far the biggest support topic after K. Rool. I think the internet a lot of times is an echo chamber and many people like to bandwagon. I highly doubt Ashley was really that popular. It just that her fans are particularly very, very passionate about her. Just look at the thread here for Shantae. Its the biggest support topic after Isaac, yet she is decidedly less known than Isabelle whom many here are grumbling about.

Another good example of this was with Chrom. Chrom at one point seemed to be among the most highly requested newcomers for Smash 4 (especially when he seemed all but inevitable with the Gematsu leak and his own voice actor saying he was going to voice the character in Smash Bros.), yet when he was de-confirmed many of these "supporters" turned on the character and said Robin and Lucina were much better choices and shared memes of Chrom being owned by Captain Falcon, Robin, and Lucina. Chrom is certainly a well liked character (he is even among the Top 5 most popular male Fire Emblem characters in the whole series, and him getting in Ultimate, years after his heyday shows this), but a lot of his "fake" popularity (the popularity that came from a bandwagon and being seen as "inevitable") evaporated when he got deconfirmed, leaving only the true supporters left which were a lot fewer than what Chrom was at his height during pre-Smash 4.

There are very interesting phenomenon at play when it comes to "popularity" in Smash Bros. A lot of people join on for the "community" or "wanting to be part of a winning team" That is why it is good that someone like Isabelle got in. She certainly was nowhere near among the most wanted newcomers for Ultimate among the people who talk online, but she is definitely among Nintendo's most popular and marketable characters that was not yet playable.

How much of Geno's popularity during his "height" was bandwagoning and being seen as "likely"? We might never know for sure.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I still see people trying to debunk the theory with false equivalences so probably still denial.

Not that anyone knows for sure one way or another, but I can't help but notice that the people trying the hardest to debunk it just so happen to be the people who really don't want it to be the end for one reason or another.

I personally cant say for sure if the theory is true, but it does make sense.

That's the thing.

It DOESN'T make sense.

It's just like some have pointed out. This has happened NUMEROUS times.

People taking slots on the website, boxes, etc to try to decipher what's coming and what isn't coming.

Not once has theories of this kind been right.

It's just a paranoia induced theory at it's finest.

Especially when a lot of people are using Verge to back said theory as well and he himself has 3 newcomers left he's leaked. Not 2.

I don't expect a tremendous amount of newcomers left myself, but we're not going to know how many are left BEFORE Sakurai lays it out in the final direct before game's release.

 

[Zathura]

Alright. So this was discussed over on the Source Gaming Discord (credit to TheFieryScar91 here) and if you look at the August Smash Direct trailer when the Moon is starting to fall down there is a sparkle that shows an Assist Trophy has just left the field on the left.

Spoiler: Moon in Direct

View attachment 164414

Now if you compare this to the Assist Trophy leaving animation from Lyn it is definitely the same thing:

Spoiler: Lyn Exit Animation

View attachment 164415

So the interesting thing about this is what Assist Trophy has just left. Now it is possible that a miniature Moon pops out of the Assist Trophy and then flies into the background, but there isn't anyone close enough to the sparkles for that to be the case and they're too high off of the ground.

So who else is tied to the Moon falling? That's right Skull Kid. This suggest that possibly Skull Kid comes out of the Assist Trophy, spends some time summoning the Moon and then disappears as it starts to fall. This is by no means a 100% deconfirmation, but it does suggest the possibility that he is part of the Moon Assist Trophy.

But if that’s the animation for an assist trophy leaving then couldn’t it just be an unrelated third trophy despawning?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Alright. So this was discussed over on the Source Gaming Discord (credit to TheFieryScar91 here) and if you look at the August Smash Direct trailer when the Moon is starting to fall down there is a sparkle that shows an Assist Trophy has just left the field on the left.

Spoiler: Moon in Direct

View attachment 164414

Now if you compare this to the Assist Trophy leaving animation from Lyn it is definitely the same thing:

Spoiler: Lyn Exit Animation

View attachment 164415

So the interesting thing about this is what Assist Trophy has just left. Now it is possible that a miniature Moon pops out of the Assist Trophy and then flies into the background, but there isn't anyone close enough to the sparkles for that to be the case and they're too high off of the ground.

So who else is tied to the Moon falling? That's right Skull Kid. This suggest that possibly Skull Kid comes out of the Assist Trophy, spends some time summoning the Moon and then disappears as it starts to fall. This is by no means a 100% deconfirmation, but it does suggest the possibility that he is part of the Moon Assist Trophy.

It's a good spot, but it does beg the question as to why it's named Moon and not Skull Kid, I don't see why they'd hide Skull Kid's involvement in the AT when that was his exact same role last game. It's definitely not impossible that he's part of it, it'd make sense, but it's a question worth asking.

 

[Danpal65]

But if that’s the animation for an assist trophy leaving then couldn’t it just be an unrelated third trophy despawning?

It's a possibility, sure, but the fact that it could be Skull Kid in this situation because of the timing lining up is the big point. I'm definitely not trying to use this as a "Oh hey look Skull Kid deconfirmed," but more so starting a conversation about the fact there is a real possibility he is still an Assist, be it a different one.

 

[MSmariosonic]

Not showing skull kid in the direcct during the moon segment would just be a **** move.

 

[pholtos]

Perhaps they hid his involvement if he got the Rathalos treatment?

 

[Danpal65]

It's a good spot, but it does beg the question as to why it's named Moon and not Skull Kid, I don't see why they'd hide Skull Kid's involvement in the AT when that was his exact same role last game. It's definitely not impossible that he's part of it, but it's a question worth asking.

Some people drew comparisons between this and the Ridley Shadow situation, which if this is true, could definitely be kinda similar.

In response to why they haven't shown it, again it could boil down to the Ridley situation in Sm4sh, but it could also be a way of not stifling speculation. I don't have a solid answer and can only really speculate here.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Been at work for over 8 hours. Box theory disconfirmed or still going strong?

The box theory can’t be disconfirmed unless another echo not between Paly and Cloud or two newcomers get confirmed.

But it also can’t be confirmed until release or Sakurai comes out and says “here’s the last character: Incineroar!”

Anyone who claims that this is open-and-shut is willingly denying evidence. Sure, we'll take sides, but calling people ‘idiots’ or ‘in denial’ requires making a few leaps of questionable logic yourself.

Alright. So this was discussed over on the Source Gaming Discord (credit to TheFieryScar91 here) and if you look at the August Smash Direct trailer when the Moon is starting to fall down there is a sparkle that shows an Assist Trophy has just left the field on the left.

Spoiler: Moon in Direct

View attachment 164414

Now if you compare this to the Assist Trophy leaving animation from Lyn it is definitely the same thing:

Spoiler: Lyn Exit Animation

View attachment 164415

So the interesting thing about this is what Assist Trophy has just left. Now it is possible that a miniature Moon pops out of the Assist Trophy and then flies into the background, but there isn't anyone close enough to the sparkles for that to be the case and they're too high off of the ground.

So who else is tied to the Moon falling? That's right Skull Kid. This suggest that possibly Skull Kid comes out of the Assist Trophy, spends some time summoning the Moon and then disappears as it starts to fall. This is by no means a 100% deconfirmation, but it does suggest the possibility that he is part of the Moon Assist Trophy.

Now THIS is interesting. I’m inclined to think that a small moon shows up and quickly vanishes similar to how e.g. the Squid Sisters pop out and then warp to the center of the stage or the Nintendog vanishes before blocking your view.

If they just changed Skull Kid’s assist to call down the moon instead, why would the assist be renamed? In that case, Skull Kid is the more famous character, so why didn’t they just show him to start with? They know that dangling carrots like that makes us angry, so if they’re going to disconfirm a character they should just do it. I know that sounds like Ridley-shadow grasping though.

I’ve always wondered what it would look like to pull the moon out, but it’s not without precedent that it could pop from the trophy, banish and reappear in the background, and then fall.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

What theory are we on now?

 

[NintenRob]

I definitely think if it's anything, it's just the Moon first showing up. Similar to how a miniature Mother Brain would appear before it than reappeared and grew in size.

 

[Danpal65]

What theory are we on now?

The box one is still floating around for some reason, but I just brought up a few posts back the fact Skull Kid may have been deconfirmed in the August Smash Direct.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

What theory are we on now?

Still this asinine box thing.

I'm so tired of it already that I need Sakurai to reveal a Smash direct for next week. It's that stupid of a theory.

 

[DutchPichu]

If the "box theory" is true, then where's Shadow? He isn't an assist trophy, why would they remove him to do nothing with him?

 

[Danpal65]

To further build upon the Skull Kid thing, the sparkle is at a comparatively similar height to where he'd appear and disappear in Sm4sh.

 

[osby]

Still this asinine box thing.

I'm so tired of it already that I need Sakurai to reveal a Smash direct for next week. It's the stupid of a theory.

I'm good with any newcomer as long as they debunk a stupid theory.

(Loved the icon, btw)

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Some people drew comparisons between this and the Ridley Shadow situation, which if this is true, could definitely be kinda similar.

In response to why they haven't shown it, again it could boil down to the Ridley situation in Sm4sh, but it could also be a way of not stifling speculation. I don't have a solid answer and can only really speculate here.

We still don't know why Ridley was held back, so it's difficult to draw a comparison to that situation in any way. My personal theory on it is that Ridley just wasn't very far in development as the 3DS version was being prioritized due to its earlier release date, as in the shadow clip it's very clear that his animation aren't final as his limbs become completely stiff at one point.

I'm glad you brought this up though, because it's worth taking into consideration. I'd find it odd and can't really find a reason for why they'd hide Skull Kid, but the way they reveal stuff to us doesn't always make sense either.

 

[lightdrago]

If the "box theory" is true, then where's Shadow? He isn't an assist trophy, why would they remove him to do nothing with him?

They did that with Isaac in 4, didn’t they? Shadow could either have been removed completely or is just an assist trophy not revealed yet, provided this theory is correct.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

What's this box theory in full? I'm not getting much context.

 

[osby]

If the "box theory" is true, then where's Shadow? He isn't an assist trophy, why would they remove him to do nothing with him?

Isaac says hi.

 

[Zinith]

R.I.P. Yoshi in Fisher's avatar

 

[Danpal65]

We still don't know why Ridley was held back, so it's difficult to draw a comparison to that situation in any way. My personal theory on it is that Ridley just wasn't very far in development as the 3DS version was being prioritized due to its earlier release date, and in the shadow clip it's very clear that his animation aren't final as his limbs become completely stiff at one point.

I'm glad you brought this up though, because it's worth taking into consideration. I'd find it odd and can't really find a reason for why they'd hide Skull Kid, but the way they reveal stuff to us doesn't always make sense either.

Yeah it definitely isn't a cut and clean comparison that's for sure.

I'm always a fan of tempering expectations and I honestly think that this is an interesting topic to discuss especially more so than the box theory

 

[Darkraid]

Hey

Incineroar will be fighter #69

So he's at least got that going for him

Pretty relevant for someone who shoots fire from his privates

 

[Frostwraith]

A little late on this, but for people thinking that Dragon Quest is a likely franchise to be in Smash, I'm afraid it's not.

The reasoning would be licensing matters, as unlike most other Square Enix franchises, the franchise isn't just owned by Square Enix.

The other IP owners include Armor Project (creator Yuji Horii's company), Bird Studio (character designer Akira Toriyama's studio) and music composer Koichi Sugiyama (who's particularly infamous for being extremely stingy with his music, not to mention other controversial political stances but I'm not going to elaborate on those).

In other words, they need to get authorization from 4 entities to get Dragon Quest content in Smash. When Square Enix is already notably difficult to negotiate with (as evidenced by the lack of FF content, with even Ultimate having only 2 songs), you add two more IP owners and, for the music alone, an artist known for being very protective of his music.

It's definitely not an easy franchise to get the rights to. And the fact it's not as popular outside of Japan (meaning less recognition) makes it a very risky addition.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I find the chances of it being extremely low.

The other big Square Enix franchise people want to see in Smash is also another licensing nightmare considering the other company involved in it. So, with all this said, I think a second Square Enix character, if it happens, might just be Geno or perhaps a character from Bravely Default.

 

[Chrono.]

If the "box theory" is true, then where's Shadow? He isn't an assist trophy, why would they remove him to do nothing with him?

Because he was a kinda crappy assist trophy that barely represented him properly and Knuckles is far better at that?

He could be DLC down the pipeline too.

 

[Door Key Pig]

The other big Square Enix franchise people want to see in Smash is also another licensing nightmare considering the other company involved in it. So, with all this said, I think a second Square Enix character, if it happens, might just be Geno or perhaps a character from Bravely Default.

The other franchise is Sora of Kingdom Hearts, right?

 

[Arcadenik]

I still see people trying to debunk the theory with false equivalences so probably still denial.

Not that anyone knows for sure one way or another, but I can't help but notice that the people trying the hardest to debunk it just so happen to be the people who really don't want it to be the end for one reason or another.

I personally cant say for sure if the theory is true, but it does make sense.

It really does make too much sense.

And honestly, I am fine with that. I have accepted that.

 

[Untouch]

The other franchise is Sora of Kingdom Hearts, right?

The legal hellscape for Sora may even be worse as disney owns the rights to the character.