Nah, that’s definitely going to be Waluigi.
I think if people
aren't afraid to vote for who they want regardless of who is or isn't playable in this specific entry, assuming there's another ballot, Waluigi, Shovel Knight and Bomberman should have the best shot. Memes aside, Waluigi's a pretty recognizable character, spin-offs only or not, people know about him, and enjoy his scumbag personality. People genuinely love the gangly purple dude...well the one that's NOT Ridley.
Bomberman's fairly iconic, and was probably more "expected" than Simon Belmont(I wanted both because I think both are pretty cool). On paper he's a pretty simple character, likely the reason as to why he's an assist in the first place. But so are guys like Marth being "sword man" or Bowser being "heavy guy". He's got enough tech from his more adventure based games to pull inspiration from. So if given another chance, he should be fine.
Shovel Knight's the Indie star most people fell head over heels for. The fact that he got in as an assist is actually pretty huge for a smaller character, even if Nintendo published his game in Japan. Getting this close to being in upset some people, but I feel that for even more, it'll ignite a spark of renewed interest for whatever follow up occurs after the base game.
Mega Man X, Zero, Knuckles, Ashley, Midna and Protoman I think have strong enough fan demand too, well as strong as you can when we got most of the heavy hitters.. I've seen plenty of people who wanted them as well, some people wanted Mega Man X or Zero before Mega Man(not me, as while MMX is my favorite, I don't think he should've been added before the OG, though he'd make for a great 2nd character). Obviously, I'd pick Mega Man X over any of these dudes. Like, Zero would be okay, but he's never been my favorite Mega Man character, and he's had the most crossovers other than Mega Man himself. Knuckles being my favorite Sonic character means I'd be okay with him somehow getting a second chance one of these days. Midna would probably be a fun character too.
I don't know if Alucard had that many shooters out here though. But I think he'll have more fans rooting for him now that he's been in the game in some fashion at all.
Then there's Ow The Edge. Since we don't know if he's still an Assist or not, he could make it in this game, if not, no skin off my back since I think Tails or Knuckles would be better choices, but he's got his fans too. So if another vote occurs and he's not playable, he'll be a pretty popular choice. Same can be said about Isabelle probably, pretty popular character, if they aren't in, she's got shooters to let Sakurai know what's up. Oh, and Skull Kid too if he doesn't make it in.
Well, that was long as ****. Thanks for reading this dumb ass post if you did.
TL;DR: Some characters deconfirmed now might still have a chance down the line if you don't let up your support.