Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[MaestroDavros]

So interesting question, what items would you like to see return?

Parasol and fan. Because nostalgia.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Here's an interesting statement seemingly from an employee of Nintendo or something.

I'll let you in on a secret "leakers".
Even people working here don't know the entire list. We find out characters on a need to know basis because of how anal they are with leaks. Most of the time legit leaks happen because of everything wrapping up, aka when everyone gets to see the full game before finalizing with last rounds of QA/ratings/manufacturing/selling, or extremely early if someone knows someone who saw Sakurai's full design plan instead of an abridged one.
Like f***, I didn't even know Snake was in the game until the direct.

More proof that "leaks" are fake AF.

 

[NintenZ]

I’m wondering though, since we have Ridley now in Smash who’s gonna take his spot as the fan fav pick.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

I’m wondering though, since we have Ridley now in Smash who’s gonna take his spot as the fan fav pick.

Waluigi.

 

[Will]

Smash 4 leaks weren't this bad in overflow, right?

 

[Deleted member]

I’m wondering though, since we have Ridley now in Smash who’s gonna take his spot as the fan fav pick.

Waluigi is pretty much already in that position.
Smash fans like purple, I guess.

 

[KMDP]

Here's an interesting statement seemingly from an employee of Nintendo or something.

More proof that "leaks" are fake AF.

*thinks of SCP Foundation*

I'm now imagining a Smash Design Document with lots and lots of [REDACTED] and [DATA EXPUNGED] all over it.

 

[Will]

I’m wondering though, since we have Ridley now in Smash who’s gonna take his spot as the fan fav pick.

Unironically Waluigi, easily.

 

[Zeox]

We need to give Waluigi an easy exploitable meme, like "Ridley is too big", but more for Waluigi.

 

[KMDP]

We need to give Waluigi an easy exploitable meme, like "Ridley is too big", but more for Waluigi.

Waluigi cheats too much.

 

[Deleted member]

Actually, I'm curious: which characters are generally considered "plausible" by this thread at the moment?
I know some but I'd like a full list, if possible.

 

[Will]

We need to give Waluigi an easy exploitable meme, like "Ridley is too big", but more for Waluigi.

Sakurai already said it. No matter how hard you try, sometimes you just don't make the cut.

 

[Zeox]

Actually, I'm curious: which characters are generally considered "plausible" by this thread at the moment?
I know some but I'd like a full list, if possible.

Any videogame character that exist before 2016.
If they are from Nintendo then they have extra points.

 

[Deleted member]

Any videogame character that exist before 2016.
If they are from Nintendo then they have extra points.

Too vague. I meant characters that are on people's radar when they make predictions.

 

[KMDP]

I imagine the list of people who already know the full roster is very short.

Like: "only Masahiro Sakurai, Reggie Fils-Aime, Tatsumi Kimishima and Shuntaro Furukawa" short.

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

Actually, I'm curious: which characters are generally considered "plausible" by this thread at the moment?
I know some but I'd like a full list, if possible.

Generally it seems to be:
K Rool
Dixie
Geno
Captain Toad
Impa
Dark Samus
Chrom
Ashley
Isabelle
Bandana Dee
Simon Belmont
Elma
Decidueye
Mimikyu
Lycanroc
Shadow

Those are all the safe picks all these leaks go for

 

[Zeox]

Too vague. I meant characters that are on people's radar when they make predictions.

I mean, If I have to name some, I would say K. Rool and Bandana Dee are the most probable for me.
I think Ashley could make it but I don't see her having a big chance, or at least not as big as those two, same with Isabelle, I know they are popular and all, but I just don't see it as clear as the fat crocodile and the goomba with hat, those two are the ones that if they are not in smash, I would really be surprised.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Now that Roster Maker 11 is out. I updated my roster now. It also includes my DLC wishlist/Predictions as well.

Spoiler: Ultimate Character Prediction Updated + DLC

Since I already explained my reasons for the base newcomers I picked, I'll do my DLC wishlist/Predictions

Rex & Pyra: Too Early for the Base Roster, but is still current enough to be the first DLC character added a few months after release.
Spring-Man/ARMS character: Another obvious DLC choice. Could mainly be Springman, Twintelle, Ribbon Girl etc.
Edelgard- Used the Fire Emblem Newcomer icon as her's isn't on the roster maker yet. But pretty easy choice here. Her use of axes helps add variety to the FE characters and can be used to promote FE: TH.
Dillon: More of a wishful thought here. But his Series is still current and adds another IP to Smash.
Isaac: A darkhorse character and he could make it in as DLC.
Arle Nadja: A requested character, and it could be a perfect thing to do to promote Puyo Puyo Chronicle if it gets localized and ported to the Switch.
Banjo: Duh. Phil Spencer is still open to him being Smash, not to mention Microsoft's sudden friendliness with Nintendo, of course it's too late for Base but perfect for DLC.
Crash: Also popular and iconic. Put him last as I feel he's very suited to be saved for the best for last.

 

[papagenos]

Too vague. I meant characters that are on people's radar when they make predictions.

This is what im currently working with, if i forgot anyone fairly likely let me know, some of this is more for DLC choices but this is the "fodder" i work with adding to the roster we already have to make predictions and see whats possible.

 

[vaanrose]

Here's an interesting statement seemingly from an employee of Nintendo or something.

More proof that "leaks" are fake AF.

Marketing people are need-to-know. Copy writers are need-to-know. It's why looking at the web layout for clues is literally the dumbest thing you could do. And even game devs themselves are generally need-to-know, the problem is, with a fighting game, in order to do your job, you kind of need-to-know everything, because every piece goes together. It's not like a linear, story game where you can and will spend your entire time working on a single level and have no idea what anything else in the game is like. It's actually one of the reasons fighting games generally get more leaks than most other games.

 

[KMDP]

Generally it seems to be:
K Rool
Dixie
Geno
Captain Toad
Impa
Dark Samus
Chrom
Ashley
Isabelle
Bandana Dee
Geno
Simon Belmont
Elma
Decidueye
Mimikyu
Lycanroc
Shadow

Those are all the safe picks all these leaks go for

*doesn't see Isaac on the list*
*shakes head in disappointment*
Oh, it's fine, you're only talking about the common characters on the leaks.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

Generally it seems to be:
K Rool
Dixie
Geno
Captain Toad
Impa
Dark Samus
Chrom
Ashley
Isabelle
Bandana Dee
Simon Belmont
Elma
Decidueye
Mimikyu
Lycanroc
Shadow

Those are all the safe picks all these leaks go for

I mean...to be fair though, we don’t have a whole lot of viable options left.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

We need to give Waluigi an easy exploitable meme, like "Ridley is too big", but more for Waluigi.

Waluigi does his Taxes

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Too vague. I meant characters that are on people's radar when they make predictions.

In particular, I see a lot of Bandana Dee, Elma and Simon in prediction lists and leaks, sometimes all three at the same time.

 

[KMDP]

I mean...to be fair though, we don’t have a whole lot of viable options left.

Which is why I foresee more 3rd parties than people expect this time.

I mean, after the popular 1st parties (Dixie, the King, BDW, the Witch and the Golden Boy, among others)

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

Which is why I foresee more 3rd parties than people expect this time.

I mean, after the popular 1st parties (Dixie, the King, BDW, the Witch and the Golden Boy, among others)

I don’t know so much about more 3rd Parties. There’s still a enough to make a majority of the newcomers 1st Party. I just think it ties in with that whole “Don’t expect many new challengers.” statement.

Not saying there won’t be 3rd parties, but this is still first and foremost a Nintendo game.

 

[DraginHikari]

I generally only put some thought into leaks later into development and closer to launch. Right now, most of them just seem to piggy back on each other in a futile attempt to seem legitimate.

 

[CannonStreak]

Generally it seems to be:
K Rool
Dixie
Geno
Captain Toad
Impa
Dark Samus
Chrom
Ashley
Isabelle
Bandana Dee
Simon Belmont
Elma
Decidueye
Mimikyu
Lycanroc
Shadow

Those are all the safe picks all these leaks go for

You know, based on my experience, I am sure Sakurai will reveal at least one character that is unexpected and not one of these safe picks. One not expected to get in and not speculated on. I am sure we'll get such a character for the base DLC for this game.

 

[TechPowah]

Now that i'm thinking about it, is the "wants to be the very best" boxing title for Red or for Leaf?
Since they're different characters and not a literal gender swap, they might have two separate titles

 

[papagenos]

In particular, I see a lot of Bandana Dee, Elma and Simon in prediction lists and leaks, sometimes all three at the same time.

they are the three characters most people see with either leaks or evidence behind their inclusion:

simon - vergeben leak, if its real hes been leaked and is likely at this point with konami involved even if vergeben is somehow a lucky guess (of course if simons in vergeben almost certainly is NOT just a lucky guess, so this one sorta perpetuates itself).

bandana dee - the evidence of him getting a future amiibo thing (highyl suspect due to who gave us that amiibo info though) but even if you dont buy into that amiibo thing hes abscent entirely from king dedede, and highly requested plus sakurai can do whatever he wants with the kirby series so literally no hoops to jump through what so ever.

elma - her game has the right timing for smash ultimate and many are in the camp thinking that toy robots gun sakurai bought is for her skell... she became thought of as highly likely due to that evidence (though personally i think its for mach rider and that robot toys purpose has been misinterpreted) sakurai is known to like the xenoblade series, and you can even say as a darker skinned woman shes somewhat a good choice for diversity of the rosters sake too i suppose.

thats why those three tend to show up on so many leaks and prediction rosters, imo anyway.

 

[Deleted member]

So, how accurate is this?

As you can see, First-parties, Third-parties and Echoes all have their own rows. I didn't know where to put Isabelle because some people predict her as a unique character and some think she will be an Echo, but I just placed her in the unique row because I don't remember many people predicting clone Isabelle pre E3.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Even though my list includes only 3 DLC 3rd party characters. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the DLC newcomers were 3rd party like SSB4's DLC newcomers were. It's easier to negotiate the rights for them during that time as well being larger money makers than 1st party characters in Fighting Games.

 

[Zeox]

You know, based on my experience, I am sure Sakurai will reveal at least one character that is unexpected and not one of these safe picks. One not expected to get in and not speculated on. I am sure we'll get such a character for the base DLC for this game.

Hope if that happens, is my man Porky.

 

[KMDP]

You know, based on my experience, I am sure Sakurai will reveal at least one character that is unexpected and not one of these safe picks. One not expected to get in and not speculated on. I am sure we'll get such a character for the base DLC for this game.

Even though my list includes only 3 DLC 3rd party characters. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the DLC newcomers were 3rd party like SSB4's DLC newcomers were. It's easier to negotiate the rights for them during that time as well being larger money makers than 1st party characters in Fighting Games.

If Sephiroth is ever revealed as a Newcomer, either in the base game or as DLC, I will feel so vindicated.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

The top 10 "safe" picks are:
1. K. Rool
2. Simon
3. A Pokemon Rep of some kind.
4. Dark Samus
5. Ashley
6. Dixie Kong
7. Shadow
8. Elma
9. Geno
10. Funky Kong, oddly enough

Source: Mentions in leaks

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

You know, based on my experience, I am sure Sakurai will reveal at least one character that is unexpected and not one of these safe picks. One not expected to get in and not speculated on. I am sure we'll get such a character for the base DLC for this game.

Yeah, I'm expecting we'll get a Rosalina sort of pick that no one really predicted, and probably some sort of retro pick we can't really predict. And there'll probably be some wild third party that few expected like Ryu and Cloud were, that could be DLC though instead of base game.

 

[P.Kat]

I do not care, I just want Isabelle being in Smash Bros.
Isabelle does not officially die, she just gets nuked off the screen and loses a stock and does not actually die....
Ah video game logic.

At least in this comic she took it like a champ. Not even certain destruction can remove the smile from her face, and the light in her heart.

 

[Dracyoshi]

said it before... everyone is forgetting the Octolings. I feel like they're more likely than most of these guesses.
1. Octolings were already popular in 2015. As soon as Splatoon launched people were begging for them to be added in DLC or a free update.
2. They're one of the easiest echoes to make. Even easier than making Lucina from Marth. They use the same weaponry and share the same body type so the model could be partially reused.
3. Splatoon was and still is selling like hotcakes. It's on track to being one of Nintendo's flagship franchises.
4. Their ease of development might even allow them to get squeezed in even if they weren't on the original plan. Splatoon 2 exploded and there's even Octoling DLC; I could see them squeezing them in.

But besides the Octolings, I can't think of any safe bets. Closest to safe would maybe be K. Rool, a Pokemon rep and Dark Samus (I'm very suspicious over their removal of the Dark Samus costume)

 

[Deleted member]

said it before... everyone is forgetting the Octolings. I feel like they're more likely than most of these guesses.
1. Octolings were already popular in 2015. As soon as Splatoon launched people were begging for them to be added in DLC or a free update.
2. They're one of the easiest echoes to make. Even easier than making Lucina from Marth. They use the same weaponry and share the same body type so the model could be partially reused.
3. Splatoon was and still is selling like hotcakes. It's on track to being one of Nintendo's flagship franchises.
4. Their ease of development might even allow them to get squeezed in even if they weren't on the original plan. Splatoon 2 exploded and there's even Octoling DLC; I could see them squeezing them in.

But besides the Octolings, I can't think of any safe bets. Closest to safe would maybe be K. Rool, a Pokemon rep and Dark Samus (I'm very suspicious over their removal of the Dark Samus costume)

I'll add them, but I actually don't think they have a snowball's chance due to their ink colors overlapping with the inklings, potentially causing a lot of chaos on the battlefield.
I can't see Sakurai going out of his way to make it work.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ashley and Bandanna Dee have been on my mind lately. When considering how much these characters have been advertised by Nintendo recently and the amount of roles they played in a multitude of titles, it is easy to understand why Smash fans have been confident of their chances of becoming playable in Smash Ultimate. The notable marketing of these characters was likely due how well they performed in the ballot (Given that the results would be utilized in future titles according to Nintendo at the time). But for me, I find it hard to feel as certain as other people for several reasons. The degree of the characters’ marketing and/or the degree of their roles in many recent Nintendo titles is what makes me unsure about their inclusion.

In regards to Ashley, while it is true that she was promoted by Nintendo via cameos in other Nintendo titles, 3DS themes, and the Badge Arcade in 2015, her marketing did not scream to me as a serious push. Most of her promotional appearances were rather minor, not going as far as being playable or having a major role in a game like Isabelle being playable in Mario Kart 8 or Rosalina being advertised as a hidden playable character. Her most notable playable appearance was in Mario Maker, but I consider that to be a smaller role when dozens of other playable characters like Chitoge from Nisekoi, Necky from Famitsu, and BABYMETAL were advertised just as briefly as her that makes Ashley’s role in that game less stand-out.

And within Ashley’s own franchise, there had not been a new WarioWare title at the time of project planning in December 2015 for her to get a chance at being marketed highly or playing a major role. The last game that came out was from Game & Wario, and the franchise has not done much since, with Ashley still playing an equal, non-towering role as Jimmy T., 9-Volt, Orbulon, and Mona. I personally believe that Sakurai’s comment on Ashley’s growing stardom does not give much benefit for her. I think Sakurai will seriously consider Ashley next Smash when she has played more notable roles in more WarioWare titles. There is WarioWare Gold coming this year, with the game apparently starting its development since late 2015 based on this leak. Maybe the most notable marketing of Ashley will come at this time, but I am skeptical on how far Sakurai will want to look as far as 2018 games when considering newcomers that have been highly promoted by Nintendo. Ashley’s smaller degree of marketing/role in WarioWare titles/other Nintendo games is why I cannot feel as confident as speculators betting on her playable appearance.

Bandanna Dee has less issues on promotion and roles in games than Ashley, but the degree of his role in newer Kirby titles have been kind of all over the place. At the times between Dee’s playable role in Return to Dreamland and the December 2015 project proposal, he has played an assisting role in Kirby: Triple Deluxe and was an optional playable character in Kirby Rainbow Curse. While Dee has had many recent roles in his own franchise, none of those roles/appearances do not feel as substantial, notable, and eye-brow raising as Rosalina’s playable role in 3D World and Isabelle’s bizarre roles in games like Monster Hunter, Mario Kart, and Taiko no Tatsujin for me to see Sakurai really take notice of Dee’s central importance to the Kirby series.

Without the combination of notable marketing and major roles for the characters, I do not feel as confident in banking on Ashley and Bandanna Dee for predictions. They might have the fan demand/move-set potential as positives, but they lack in the major role and/or marketing department for me feel good about their chances. For me to be confident about these characters, they would have to reach the minimum goals:

-Being a stand-out, towering playable character in many of their franchise’s newest titles. (ex.: Rosalina playable in 3D World and first playable role in Mario spinoffs like Mario Party Island Tour/Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash)
-Being marketed by Nintendo highly. (ex.: Isabelle taking over the official Animal Crossing Twitter account and her appearing in many Nintendo ads)

Ashley does not have a high degree for both goals. Dee hits one of the goals, but lacks a substantial amount of notable, towering roles in his own games for me to be very confident of his chances. But you know, when thinking about it further, maybe Nintendo planning to market these characters to even the minimum barely notable degree is just enough for Sakurai to seriously consider the character. Maybe having major roles in new titles is not much of a requirement. Maybe that small window of time that Ashley got for a notable amount of outside smaller promotion in 2015 was enough for Sakurai to consider her for Ultimate, despite her notable marketing not being as bulky between 2016-2017. As of now, I feel that I could easily be wrong about what I speculate to be minimum goals for these kinds of characters.

But, if hardcore marketing, fan-demand, and move-set potential are the possible requirements to consider these characters, then I am willing to place my bets on this character again:

In terms of Bandanna Dee being marketed, HAL Laboratory treats/promotes the character the same as the Waddle Dee species. Waddle Dees are extremely popular in Japan, and have been used more frequently in advertising Kirby far more than any other character in the franchise. I have seen them in store promotion, countless merchandise, cafes, and most frequently on Kirby JP’s Twitter account. HAL Laboratory even went as far as giving the Waddle Dees their own day on April Fools. This high degree of marketing of the species has remained consistent, notable, and on-going for years, and the number of promotions Waddle Dees get for several Kirby advertising matters has been recently rising to ridiculous levels since. I would not be surprised if Sakurai noticed this hardcore marketing of Waddle Dees in Japan and used it to his advantage to add Bandanna Dee in Smash Ultimate’s roster. Out of all the potential promotional fan-favorite newcomers (Aside from Isabelle), I personally consider Bandanna Dee to be the most likely. He is the final newcomer that I have chosen for my predictions that I am willing to bank on now.