Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Dragoncharystary]

Ridley was not obvious nor likely really. If it weren't for the Verb leak, few would've thought it had a good chance. The reality is, people were still miffed over him being hard disconfirmed in 4 and then explained that Sakurai felt it out of character for Ridley to not just be playable but made smaller.

This was a serious surprise reveal, if it weren't for the leak.

It doesn't mean Verg is entirely legit, as some of his sources could be lying/wrong, but the Ridley bit was not an easy guess in the first place.

Every other leak in the Smash 4 days was saying Ridley though. Now they were all horribly put together and a mess but the point is people have always been claiming Ridley is in the game, leaking him, etc. since Brawl's days even whether or not he was a likely choice. I recall a month ago Ridley was still a hot topic when talking about characters for the game. I was sure he would be in the game though I wasn't to vocal about it but I recall many people such as Bowserlick being insistent Sakurai would listen to the fan demand this time. GameXplain even predicted them in their pre-E3 discussion video. Ridley certainly wasn't a sure thing, no character is, but saying Ridley wasn't often predicted is just not true.

 

[StormC]

The general narrative was that Ridley was unlikely after being rejected twice. Check the RTC thread to see for yourself. He was not a “safe” pick by any means - kudos to those that stuck to their guns, but Ridley was far from a sure thing.

 

[DarkFalcon]

Ridley being denied twice by Sakurai only for him to finally get him to work due to fan demand is the very reason why you should passionately (but respectfully) support characters you want, even if Sakurai has come out and said no in the past.

(Unless it's Goku or Shrek. Don't pls)

 

[Troykv]

Ridley being denied twice by Sakurai only for him to finally get him to work due to fan demand is the very reason why you should passionately (but respectfully) support characters you want, even if Sakurai has come out and said no in the past.

It's hard to support characters that are overshadowed; but that don't stop people if they are attached to them and believe in their character's prowness.

 

[cmbsfm]

Forget Ridley, what about Snake? He was rarely put on prediction lists because of Konami until Vergeben leaked him. I’d give him credit for getting that one right.

 

[StormC]

Who would win in a fight, Gematsu or Vergeben?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Ridley was denied twice by Sakurai. Sakurai made it clear that shrinking him down and making him playable also is "wouldn't be Ridley anymore". There was very good reasons to believe he wasn't a safe pick, with some hope. RTC showed how unlikely he was via a ton of opinions. And I mean a ton. Yeah, they were wrong, but it already proves that a lot didn't find him likely. Calling him safe is a load of bull. He wasn't actually a safe pick. That'd hindsight entirely.

Lastly, a ton of leaks coming out only caused bandwagoning, as all but Verg were fake to begin with, and Verg may be fake too. That was nothing but a minority of people making guesses. It means nothing. Again, this is hindsight at its finest.

 

[Skyblade12]

The general narrative was that Ridley was unlikely after being rejected twice. Check the RTC thread to see for yourself. He was not a “safe” pick by any means - kudos to those that stuck to their guns, but Ridley was far from a sure thing.

What fans expect has absolutely no bearing on a character’s likelihood, though.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Snake is the only thing I give vergeben credit for.

That was ballsy.

Ridley was not.

We've known for the longest time Sakurai's word from game to game is not law. What he said about Ridley last game never applied to this game until proven otherwise.

And thus saying a popular fan requested character was going to get in? After we just had a DLC wave that was about fan requests complete with a ballot?

Yeah, not really all that unsafe of a choice.

But props for correctly predicting Snake.

 

[masterluigi1]

Ridley was denied twice by Sakurai. Sakurai made it clear that shrinking him down and making him playable also is "wouldn't be Ridley anymore". There was very good reasons to believe he wasn't a safe pick, with some hope. RTC showed how unlikely he was via a ton of opinions. And I mean a ton. Yeah, they were wrong, but it already proves that a lot didn't find him likely. Calling him safe is a load of bull. He wasn't actually a safe pick. That'd hindsight entirely.

Lastly, a ton of leaks coming out only caused bandwagoning, as all but Verg were fake to begin with, and Verg may be fake too. That was nothing but a minority of people making guesses. It means nothing. Again, this is hindsight at its finest.

dont be so quick to call vergeben fake.
people are forgetting that he also predicted that no one will get cut.
and that ridley would specificaly be revealed at e3.

 

[Skyblade12]

Forget Ridley, what about Snake? He was rarely put on prediction lists because of Konami until Vergeben leaked him. I’d give him credit for getting that one right.

Really? Because Vergebegga didn’t seem too sure of it. He backed off that “source” multiple times, and only ever fully backed Ridley.

 

[StormC]

What fans expect has absolutely no bearing on a character’s likelihood, though.

Nobody knows how likely a character is besides Sakurai.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

He predicted no one would get cut. Not that everyone would come back. Big difference.

 

[Shadowwolflink]

Isn't she like practically non-existent in japan?

No, apparently there was a huge outcry because her games weren't being localized, so now her games get physical releases in Japan with exclusive bonuses.

Basically not as popular as she is in the English speaking world, but certainly not non-existent.

 

[Skyblade12]

Ridley was denied twice by Sakurai. Sakurai made it clear that shrinking him down and making him playable also is "wouldn't be Ridley anymore". There was very good reasons to believe he wasn't a safe pick, with some hope. RTC showed how unlikely he was via a ton of opinions. And I mean a ton. Yeah, they were wrong, but it already proves that a lot didn't find him likely. Calling him safe is a load of bull. He wasn't actually a safe pick. That'd hindsight entirely.

Lastly, a ton of leaks coming out only caused bandwagoning, as all but Verg were fake to begin with, and Verg may be fake too. That was nothing but a minority of people making guesses. It means nothing. Again, this is hindsight at its finest.

RTC proves that he was not a POPULAR expectation. It did not prove that he wasn’t a likely one.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

dont be so quick to call vergeben fake.
people are forgetting that he also predicted that no one will get cut.
and that ridley would specificaly be revealed at e3.

I didn't say he was fake. I said he could be fake.

He got two characters that were unlikely to most(Snake, Ridley, and both were seriously ballsy picks as is), and we have yet to see a lot of his information. It could go either way, really.

 

[papagenos]

Forget Ridley, what about Snake? He was rarely put on prediction lists because of Konami until Vergeben leaked him. I’d give him credit for getting that one right.

This.

Konami being part of Vergeben is the biggest credibility it has. Everyone thought Konami wasn’t going to Be involved in smash again ever. Simon Belmont or snake or both point is he said Konami was coming back.

And then guessing TMNT was impossible for injustice soooo verge might not always be right and his Nintendo info can be spotty but he definitely has had real sources for info no one could guess before so there’s reason to believe him even if he CAN still be wrong.

 

[Slavic]

dont be so quick to call vergeben fake.
people are forgetting that he also predicted that no one will get cut.
and that ridley would specificaly be revealed at e3.

I've talked about Ridley's reveal with my friends and the thing is his reveal would only work at the end of the E3 showing anyways. Showing him off at the beginning will peak the hype too early on and cause it to dwindle, you need that bit of anticipation, and at the same time not showing Ridley at E3 would also kill the hype a bit. I don't think Ridley's reveal could have been anything but at E3 to be successful (I also think Ridley was basically mandatory for this game to build the hype and they did). I'm still of the belief that Ridley was probably the safest choice for Smash 5 predictions cause they kind of hit the bottom of the barrel for huge and hype characters. However, I know a lot of people also don't think Ridley was obvious or safe at all, it's different mindsets but that part of the leak was the least impressive out of any of it imo.

 

[KingBroly]

I didn't say he was fake. I said he could be fake.

He got two characters that were unlikely to most(Snake, Ridley, and both were seriously ballsy picks as is), and we have yet to see a lot of his information. It could go either way, really.

Personally, I'd like to know how many leakers said Daisy would be playable.

 

[Bestmand902]

Sakurai only said to not expect as many newcomers as before. Combine that with the Das leak of "at least 6" and I find anything in the ballpark of 2-4 to be really cynical.

Well, nothing wrong with cynical TBH, it means you're never disappointed if you never expect anything.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Personally, I'd like to know how many leakers said Daisy would be playable.

None I think? I dunno.

But did he even say that one? So... I guess it doesn't matter. She's the bigger surprise factor, though Ridley was clearly intended to be a surprise. If it weren't for all those leaks, almost nobody would've saw it coming.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

It's like a lot of people around here keep crapping all over Isabelle. And her low low low chances apparently.

But in reality she's pretty much a really likely person either as a unique character or echo fighter. She's one of the most pushed Nintendo characters of recent years.

These same people who rate chances here were also some of the ones that knew Bandai Namco was making the damn game last time and had their fingers in their ears about how likely Pac Man was. Or how likely Dark Pit was despite the bit at Palutena's trailer being the classic cliff hanger trope.

What nerds say on the internet about a character's chances or likelihood is irrelevant and always will be because a lot of times they think too logically and then others they don't think outside of the box. There's no middle ground. There's no subjective.

They're usually all in passionately on one side of the fence and not standing in the middle weighing both possibilities soundly.

So it's all just a big blob of nothingness.

 

[Skyblade12]

Personally, I'd like to know how many leakers said Daisy would be playable.

None, to my knowledge. Unless you count Memoryman.

 

[Zerp]

Well, nothing wrong with cynical TBH, it means you're never disappointed if you never expect anything.

Oh trust me, it's completely possible to expect nothing and still end up disappointed, I'm an expert at that.

 

[KingBroly]

None I think? I dunno.

But did he even say that one? So... I guess it doesn't matter. She's the bigger surprise factor, though Ridley was clearly intended to be a surprise. If it weren't for all those leaks, almost nobody would've saw it coming.

The only one that I recall mentioning Daisy was the 4chan one from the day before. But her being playable is one people should look for and pay attention to because likely no one took it seriously. Assuming any exist.

 

[masterluigi1]

I'd say vergeben does definitely have "some" credibility after the e3 reveals. people denying that havnt been paying attention.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Likeliness has nothing to do with Sakurai. It's an educated guess based upon all the data we have. Ridley wasn't seen as likely at all. Isabelle, on the other hand, is, to most people. They're on polar opposites of likeliness.

That has nothing to do with what will happen, just an interesting guess.

The only one that I recall mentioning Daisy was the 4chan one from the day before. But her being playable is one people should look for and pay attention to because likely no one took it seriously.

I never saw that one. Huh.

 

[Green_Pikmin*]

I swear if i hear one more thing about vegetarians!

 

[StrangeMann]

Likeliness has nothing to do with Sakurai. It's an educated guess based upon all the data we have. Ridley wasn't seen as likely at all. Isabelle, on the other hand, is, to most people. They're on polar opposites of likeliness.

That has nothing to do with what will happen, just an interesting guess.


I never saw that one. Huh.

There was also a gamefaqs user who leaked Ridley, no cuts, and daisy the day before, but he set his post history to private after E3.
I'll try tracking down the post.
Here's the /v/ one, I'll cover it in a spoiler though:

Spoiler: 4chan one

https://boards.fireden.net/v/thread/419829152/

and here's the gamefaqs one

Spoiler: gamefaqs leak

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76696004?page=6

 

[masterluigi1]

I've talked about Ridley's reveal with my friends and the thing is his reveal would only work at the end of the E3 showing anyways. Showing him off at the beginning will peak the hype too early on and cause it to dwindle, you need that bit of anticipation, and at the same time not showing Ridley at E3 would also kill the hype a bit. I don't think Ridley's reveal could have been anything but at E3 to be successful (I also think Ridley was basically mandatory for this game to build the hype and they did). I'm still of the belief that Ridley was probably the safest choice for Smash 5 predictions cause they kind of hit the bottom of the barrel for huge and hype characters. However, I know a lot of people also don't think Ridley was obvious or safe at all, it's different mindsets but that part of the leak was the least impressive out of any of it imo.

there are other newcomers that could have been revealed besides ridley at e3

 

[Tree Gelbman]

You missed my point Verde Coeden Scalesworth .

Half the people on this forum don't weigh options equally and they have never. They never will.

Because it's either all one way or the highway. Facts can't change to them. And facts change all the time.

That's just the way the world works.

Villager used to not fit for Smash. Now he does. Both facts.

Ridley was too big for Smash and it wouldn't work to shrink him down. Now it does. Both facts.

Non Smash related facts that have changed?

Pluto was a planet. Now it's not.

Barack Obama was President. Now he's not.

Things change.

But very seldomly do I see people actually understand that when talking about statements Sakurai has made. Despite the fact he frequently does change his opinion on things.

That is why nothing a thread on any forum about rating chances of characters matters for. Because there's no subjective thinking involved in most people's cases? It's one way or the highway.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

There was also a gamefaqs user who leaked Ridley, no cuts, and daisy the day before, but he set his post history to private.

Interesting.

But yeah, overall, leaks very much change our views of likeliness.

The only obvious pick to this day was still Inkling. It can slightly vary for others, but nobody else was really obvious. There's no case of "we should've seen it coming". This isn't like previous games. They're just way less easy picks nowadays. I mean, seeing everybody coming back as is was also seen as unlikely, mostly due to the idea that Young Link is too redundant with Toon Link. But here we are.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Of course he did. Why do you think he was able to stand and walk on two legs?

He learned from the best.

I was gonna say because Pit taught him to gain Nintendog points

 

[StrangeMann]

Tomorrow .....

I don't think we're getting a pic of the day tomarrow, it's the weekend. They'll probably come back Monday.

 

[Skyblade12]

Likeliness has nothing to do with Sakurai. It's an educated guess based upon all the data we have. Ridley wasn't seen as likely at all. Isabelle, on the other hand, is, to most people. They're on polar opposites of likeliness.

That has nothing to do with what will happen, just an interesting guess.


I never saw that one. Huh.

Yes, expectation is a game of educated guesses.

It is not a huge stretch to guess Ridley. Between the work that had gone into him before, his fan presence, the fact Sakurai clearly considered him, and the lack of other big name characters made him a very logical one. There’s a reason he was on half the fake leaks out there before E3.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Tomorrow .....

*coughs* Excuse me. Sorry. Just posting some late early 00's jams. My bad. *coughs*

 

[KingBroly]

Some research has turned up this interesting nugget from April, detailing Nintendo's E3 booth

https://old.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/8r931b/the_leak_was_real_it_was_mentioned_that_a_falcon/

But this doesn't really delve into Ridley or Daisy being playable, mind you.

 

[Octorockandroll]

If fan demand really does help characters get added, then I need to recruit more people into the Fawful camp.

 

[StrangeMann]

Interesting.

But yeah, overall, leaks very much change our views of likeliness.

The only obvious pick to this day was still Inkling. It can slightly vary for others, but nobody else was really obvious. There's no case of "we should've seen it coming". This isn't like previous games. They're just way less easy picks nowadays. I mean, seeing everybody coming back as is was also seen as unlikely, mostly due to the idea that Young Link is too redundant with Toon Link. But here we are.

It's pretty clear some people knew about the floor the day before (the 11th) and leaked information from there to gamefaqs/4chan
Otherwise the only possible earlier leaks were ones from resetera and the vergeben (on gamefaqs and reddit). If he's right, we'll get castlevania stuff when the konami press event embargo ends in a few days.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

You missed my point Verde Coeden Scalesworth .

Half the people on this forum don't weigh options equally and they have never. They never will.

Because it's either all one way or the highway. Facts can't change to them. And facts change all the time.

That's just the way the world works.

Villager used to not fit for Smash. Now he does. Both facts.

Ridley was too big for Smash and it wouldn't work to shrink him down. Now it does. Both facts.

Things change.

But very seldomly do I see people actually understand that.

That is why nothing a thread on any forum about rating chances of characters matters for. Because there's no subjective thinking involved in most people's cases? It's one way or the highway.

You missed my point. Ridley was absolutely seen heavily as not happening but a crapload of people. He was not an easy guess. At all. For most. And yes, RTC does prove he was not an easy guess as well. It means many thought he had little to no chance. It doesn't matter if it's a somewhat small sample pool, because it proves he was a clearly mixed likelihood. That's the point you're missing.

Of course things change. But not everything does. Patterns don't hold up either, as proven before. And so on. It's still too hard to see how Ridley was a safe guess when he clearly was not one to begin with. Take away all those leaks? People would barely talk about him. A huge amount of people thought he wouldn't happen, while others simply hoped he would.

Yes, expectation is a game of educated guesses.

It is not a huge stretch to guess Ridley. Between the work that had gone into him before, his fan presence, the fact Sakurai clearly considered him, and the lack of other big name characters made him a very logical one. There’s a reason he was on half the fake leaks out there before E3.

It was a pretty huge stretch, honestly. Again, pure hindsight. I didn't see him coming, and I thought he was a lock in Brawl and 4. Sakurai's statement made it clear his chances were crap. You know who else was a safe guess? Wolf in 4. Didn't happen.