Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Roberk]

Just wondering and curious: does anyone still think we’ll get s Nintendo Direct, let alone one for Smash Switch sometime this month?

Smash and maybe Pokemon will be the big focus of E3 this year. However, I still think that we might get a general Direct covering the stuff they won't have the time to show in an E3 presentation. There's been nothing since the March 20th Nindies and the March 8th Direct, I think they'll hype up some games before the Pokemon and Smash information consumes everyone.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I dunno. Timing-wise, Elma is in a more favorable position than Rex & Pyra.

Depends on when Smash Switch started development. If it started sometime in late 2016 I'd doubt Elma even has a chance. If however (and it seems pretty likely) development started somewhere around March-April 2016, that would only be around 3-4 months after the international release of X (and we know thanks to Corrin that international release dates matter).

This difference is important due to two confirmed statements. One of them is that Sakurai has stated that what's recent around the time development started has a big effect on the roster. The other is that Sakurai stated that had Awakening released 6 months earlier or later Robin would have been less likely to have made it in.

Ultimately, when development started is the difference between Elma being a plausible choice and being essentially hopeless.

Regardless of Elma's chance of being in Smash and when development started, (since at the latest it would be November 2016) Rex would definitely be at a disadvantage in terms of timing. And no, when XC2 started development is not relevant because the question shouldn't be whether or not Sakurai knew of Rex in 2016 as much as if he would be willing to give Rex the Greninja treatment. Keep in mind the same interview where he made the Robin comment was also the one where he cited Pokemon as an exception (showing that Awakening and X & Y were clearly treated differently). Here is the interview where the statements came from.

Sakurai: It really depends on the situation. For example, Roy and Robin were included for completely different reasons. It also depends on luck, of course. Industry trends around the time when development begins is a pretty big factor. I started development on Smash for 3DS/ Wii U right after I’d wrapped up Kid Icarus: Uprising, and Fire Emblem Awakening was released one month after Uprising. So what’s popular around the time when I begin designing the game is important. Characters are almost never added after I’ve completed the project plan for Smash.

Interviewer: So once that project plan is set into motion, everything is already fixed.

Sakurai: If I had to offer up one exception from this time, it would be for Pokémon. We knew there was going to be a new release soon, so we left one spot open for a newPokémon, and everything else continued according to plan. Adding or removing during the process directly impacts production costs and people’s workloads, so it’s not that easy to add or change things, and we take that into account.

Interviewer: That’s a separate topic from post-release add-on content (DLC), though.

Sakurai: We don’t think about adding in post-release content from the beginning. We want to provide as much as we can with the base game.

Interviewer: But that means Awakening’s release schedule was pretty fortuitous.

Sakurai: Yes, that was the case. For example, if Awakening was released six months later, Robin may not have made it in, and if it was six months early, they might not have even been considered.

Though that being said, Pushdustin in his "When was Smash Switch Started?" video did bring up an interesting theory about what the mech with the gun could mean in terms of Smash. It may mean something, it may not.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

Yeah, but WHY would they? Xenoblade isnt released every year like pokemon is, nor is it anywhere near as prominent. There'd be no reason to look to the future and grab a character thats likely not even set in stone at the time.

We say "yeah sakurai could have asked about it" but thats just to fit the narrative we'd need to consider their chances. It doesnt mean that the situation likely happened.

I'm not comparing the franchises of Pokemon and Xenoblade Chronicles. I'm making the connection between characters that have come to be playable before their reveals to the public into correlation with development time between their games and Smash.

I don't think it audacious to believe that Sakurai could have gotten information from Monolith Soft beforehand in regards to Rex & Pyra. He's also boasted his love of the Xenoblade franchise before. I'm not saying Elma can't or won't be in, but that I feel Rex & Pyra are more likely at this point and time.

Why would they? Because they can.

You act as if Nintendo and it's developers don't have knowledge of things going on within the companies developing titles. Nintendo, it's developers, and Sakurai all know Smash is a high profile, console selling game. So, "Why not?" is the better question.

 

[Jak_spoon]

I'm not comparing the franchises of Pokemon and Xenoblade Chronicles. I'm making the connection between characters that have come to be playable before their reveals to the public into correlation with development time between their games and Smash.

I don't think it audacious to believe that Sakurai could have gotten information from Monolith Soft beforehand in regards to Rex & Pyra. He's also boasted his love of the Xenoblade franchise before. I'm not saying Elma can't or won't be in, but that I feel Rex & Pyra are more likely at this point and time.

Why would they? Because they can.

You act as if Nintendo and it's developers don't have knowledge of things going on within the companies developing titles. Nintendo, it's developers, and Sakurai all know Smash is a high profile, console selling game. So, "Why not?" is the better question.

Because not all ideas are finalized at the beginning of development, things change. I think Rexs bigger problem is what would he have to offer to smash that would be new and original. I mean Shulk obviously started from Marths build. How far out of the box can Sakurai think on the next guy.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Though that being said, Pushdustin in his "When was Smash Switch Started?" video did bring up an interesting theory about what the mech with the gun could mean in terms of Smash. It may mean something, it may not.

It likely is tied to the development of Super Smash Bros. for Switch. Sakurai for Brawl and Wii U/3DS development has stated that he uses poseable models in order to get the basis for character animations. He even went out of the way to show the poses for Zero Suit Samus and Diddy Kong in an Nintendo Power interview a long time ago.

However I doubt it's related to Elma since she primarily uses duel swords and duel guns, due to her class being Full Metal Jaguar. While the figure itself only holds a single gun more comparable to a snipe rifle. Which makes me think it was a basis for the Inklings, since there are weapons like the Splattershot comparable to sniping weapons.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Tetris is not a WTF character, even Arle Nadja deserves as a Mii Costume or a Assist Trophy instead of a character, Tetris needs a Representative character with a stage

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

It likely is tied to the development of Super Smash Bros. for Switch. Sakurai for Brawl and Wii U/3DS development has stated that he uses poseable models in order to get the basis for character animations. He even went out of the way to show the poses for Zero Suit Samus and Diddy Kong in an Nintendo Power interview a long time ago.

However I doubt it's related to Elma since she primarily uses duel swords and duel guns, due to her class being Full Metal Jaguar. While the figure itself only holds a single gun more comparable to a snipe rifle. Which makes me think it was a basis for the Inklings, since there are weapons like the Splattershot comparable to sniping weapons.

The mech greatly resembles a skell though, which could be her final smash, it's just a question if he'd buy a figure just for that tho

really not the right build for an inkling imo

 

[Jak_spoon]

Roy was a last minute clone tho and lucas ultimately wasn't added to melee, do we even know if lucas replacing ness was a set in stone thing that would've definitely happened had mother 3 actually come out?

Fair enough. And I don’t know if it was set in stone or not.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

The mech greatly resembles a skell though, which could be her final smash, it's just a question if he'd buy a figure just for that tho

really not the right build for an inkling imo

Not that it means much, but doesn't the gun from the Vifam model resemble the gun that Elma's favourite Skell wields in the official art?

Spoiler

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don’t think we can really make a judgment of when development matters and when it doesn’t. We’ve gone over this before.

Sure, Sakurai mentions development is affected by what is out around this time. That makes a lot of sense.

However, there’s no telling what might be considered for this game. There may be a theme or pattern of newer characters/series that would be relevant around the time of release for all we know. Based on that, Sakurai could pick Rex & Pyra or Spring Man over characters who debuted a few years ago.

We simply don’t know. As far as XC2, it was in development for at least a year when Smash started development. It’s entirely possible Sakurai could go to Monolith Soft, look at what they had going on, and then made a decision.

There’s no reason to think Elma has this incredible “edge” over Rex.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I don’t think we can really make a judgment of when development matters and when it doesn’t. We’ve gone over this before.

Sure, Sakurai mentions development is affected by what is out around this time. That makes a lot of sense.

However, there’s no telling what might be considered for this game.

That's an argument you can use to counter literally everything else that people feel would still be a major factor for this game because it was for past games. While I get what you are saying, that argument that "past trends don't matter" isn't valid because of how selective that counter-argument is, being only applied in cases like this.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Just wondering and curious: does anyone still think we’ll get s Nintendo Direct, let alone one for Smash Switch sometime this month?

Nah. Were already this close, it'll take divine intervention by now to get news before E3. Maaaaaaybe some real small stuff a week or so before E3 (when I say small stuff Im talking sushi striker or port levels of small), but otherwise were in it for the long haul, boyos.

 

[FlareHabanero]

I remember when people were using the development of Brawl as a basis for predicting the next roster on Wii U/3DS. Banking on supposed trends and comments from Sakurai himself, thinking they understood exactly what was going to happen.

Needless to say, it backfired very badly.

Which baffles me that people have not learned this at all and still have this mentality going into the next game. Because, spoilers, development is bombastic and people tend to change their minds. Not to mention we have next to zero context of the game itself.

 

[Jak_spoon]

I remember when people were using the development of Brawl as a basis for predicting the next roster on Wii U/3DS. Banking on supposed trends and comments from Sakurai himself, thinking they understood exactly what was going to happen.

Needless to say, it backfired very badly.

Which baffles me that people have not learned this at all and still have this mentality going into the next game. Because, spoilers, development is bombastic and people tend to change their minds. Not to mention we have next to zero context of the game itself.

Maybe for you. 70% of my predictions were right. Sakurai has patterns and concerns. If you look hard enough you can make a pretty dang good prediction.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Majora's Mask is certainly not an iconic figure to the gaming community as a whole.

That's completely false.

I remember when people were using the development of Brawl as a basis for predicting the next roster on Wii U/3DS. Banking on supposed trends and comments from Sakurai himself, thinking they understood exactly what was going to happen.

Needless to say, it backfired very badly.

Which baffles me that people have not learned this at all and still have this mentality going into the next game. Because, spoilers, development is bombastic and people tend to change their minds. Not to mention we have next to zero context of the game itself.

Expecting King K. Rool and Dixie was one of the most foolish things people did prior to Smash 4.

DK & Diddy were the only characters even in Donkey Kong Country Returns and people somehow thought that the Donkey Kong universe was a huge priority for newcomers.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

That's an argument you can use to counter literally everything else that people feel would still be a major factor for this game because it was for past games. While I get what you are saying, that argument that "past trends don't matter" isn't valid because of how selective that counter-argument is, being only applied in cases like this.

Does that invalidate the point though? We know nothing except the fact that we have Inklings and BOTW Link.

The rest is up in the air. Is BOTW the newest Sakurai looked? Or is it newer than that? If we get older characters, like right off the bat at E3, I will be more convinced we’re getting Elma. It simply seems to me that those who are banking on Elma seem to think Rex has little to no chance.

Problem is, there’s literally no way to know that without being biased until we get more information. Hence why it all depends on the direction of the game.

 

[dream1ng]

Expecting King K. Rool and Dixie was one of the most foolish things people did prior to Smash 4.

DK & Diddy were the only characters even in Donkey Kong Country Returns and people somehow thought that the Donkey Kong universe was a huge priority for newcomers.

How crazy it was to think we'd get a popular character already planned now that she had received a new appearance. Not hindsight bias at all.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

How crazy it was to think we'd get a popular character already planned now that she had received a new appearance. Not hindsight bias at all.

• She was not planned to be a separate character in Brawl.
• She did not receive a new appearance when Smash 4 started development. In fact she hadn't had an appearance in a video game for 4 years. Like I said, her and King K. Rool were BOTH absent from Donkey Kong Country Returns.

 

[Lyndis_]

• She did not receive a new appearance when Smash 4 started development. In fact she hadn't had an appearance in a video game for 4 years.

Neither did Shulk nor Little Mac. Xenoblade only came out 2 years after Super Sluggers. Punch out for Wii less than one.

K. Rool and Dixie are and always have been super popular characters and Donkey Kong is a huge series. I don't think most people expected them to just not add any new characters to it, especially with series like Fire Emblem getting 2 new ones.

 

[dream1ng]

• She was not planned to be a separate character in Brawl.
• She did not receive a new appearance when Smash 4 started development. In fact she hadn't had an appearance in a video game for 4 years. Like I said, her and King K. Rool were BOTH absent from Donkey Kong Country Returns.

Those are valid reasons why she didn't get in, not why she wouldn't face expectation. Being in Sakurai's purview is nothing to dismiss given how often he returns to concepts, and I can guarantee you some of the handful of characters currently thrown around that didn't publicly exist when this game commenced development won't be included, yet at the moment are treated as viable suggestions.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Neither did Shulk. Xenoblade only came out 2 years after Super Sluggers.

You realize four minus two is two and not four right? And last time I checked, Shulk was actually IN the last Xenoblade at the time. As the main character? Of a new IP?

 

[Lyndis_]

You realize four minus two is two and not four right? And last time I checked, Shulk was actually IN the last Xenoblade at the time. As the main character? Of a new IP?

Little Mac, then. The last Punch-Out!! came out not even a full year after Super Sluggers on the Wii.

Xeno also isn't really a new IP. The first one was Xenogears in 1998.

Absolutely nobody thought Shulk was likely but he got in, I don't see why anyone had any reason to think incredibly popular characters that missed one title couldn't happen.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I remember when people were using the development of Brawl as a basis for predicting the next roster on Wii U/3DS. Banking on supposed trends and comments from Sakurai himself, thinking they understood exactly what was going to happen.

Needless to say, it backfired very badly.

Which baffles me that people have not learned this at all and still have this mentality going into the next game. Because, spoilers, development is bombastic and people tend to change their minds. Not to mention we have next to zero context of the game itself.

So you're saying there's a decent chance Sakurai could potentially focus less on recency and more on ballot choices (regardless of when they last appeared) for Smash Switch? Because that would truly go against the trend of Wii U/ 3DS.

 

[dream1ng]

I think there's always a chance priorities get switched up for including new characters, but banking on a specific new angle simply because it's different, trying to preempt the reveals, seems even more foolhardy than basing guesses on past trends; people were wrong when they thought past trends would dictate the Smash 4 roster, but it was an understandable error. Just as it would be now to gauge Smash Switch newcomers based on Smash 4, should the strategy prove different.

 

[Bebe Mignon]

I don’t think we can really make a judgment of when development matters and when it doesn’t. We’ve gone over this before.

Sure, Sakurai mentions development is affected by what is out around this time. That makes a lot of sense.

However, there’s no telling what might be considered for this game. There may be a theme or pattern of newer characters/series that would be relevant around the time of release for all we know. Based on that, Sakurai could pick Rex & Pyra or Spring Man over characters who debuted a few years ago.

We simply don’t know. As far as XC2, it was in development for at least a year when Smash started development. It’s entirely possible Sakurai could go to Monolith Soft, look at what they had going on, and then made a decision.

There’s no reason to think Elma has this incredible “edge” over Rex.

The same applies for Rex. I legitimately don't understand why some people believe he is a shoo-in.

That's completely false.

How can an opinionated statement be false?

 

[FlareHabanero]

So you're saying there's a decent chance Sakurai could potentially focus less on recency and more on ballot choices (regardless of when they last appeared) for Smash Switch? Because that would truly go against the trend of Wii U/ 3DS.

It's a possibility.

An important thing to remember is that the character pool is very small, which means that more creativity will likely be involved to keep things fresh. Specifically I can see him pulling back on his own comments in order to have more options available. Remember this is the same guy that once claimed that characters that were "Not fit for fighting" were not likely to appear, but by the next game we got characters like Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, and the Miis, plus possibly the Chorus Kids being planned but scrapped. I could see something similar happen with the next game, like him pulling back on the mentality of characters not having a global presence not being likely and then adding something like Takamaru or Lip.

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

I remember when people were using the development of Brawl as a basis for predicting the next roster on Wii U/3DS. Banking on supposed trends and comments from Sakurai himself, thinking they understood exactly what was going to happen.

Needless to say, it backfired very badly.

Which baffles me that people have not learned this at all and still have this mentality going into the next game. Because, spoilers, development is bombastic and people tend to change their minds. Not to mention we have next to zero context of the game itself.

Not really though, a lot of people were predicting Palutena, little mac, bowser jr, a fire emblem rep, a 6th gen pokemon, shulk and after namco's involvement was announced, Pac-Man. The only characters that I think really caught anyone off guard were Rosalina, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager and Duck Hunt tbh.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Maybe for you. 70% of my predictions were right. Sakurai has patterns and concerns. If you look hard enough you can make a pretty dang good prediction.

Only 70%? My bot's been 100% right for every game. Granted it just periodically outputs "There will be characters in the next smash brothers game," but he ain't been wrong yet.





Fine fine I'll clarify that I'm not being troll-ish for no reason. My point is, accuracy without stating what the predictions were tells us nothing.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

What would people's reactions be in the hypothetical scenario where Elma ends up being a playable character?

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

What would people's reactions be in the hypothetical scenario where Elma ends up being a playable character?

I'd be happy as hell, though a lot of people seem to be expecting Rex to get in so maybe some confusion among the general public but tbh the same happened when robin got in over chrom. Although if they announce a XCX port/sequel beforehand it would certainly soften that blow.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Not really though, a lot of people were predicting Palutena, little mac, bowser jr, a fire emblem rep, a 6th gen pokemon, shulk and after namco's involvement was announced, Pac-Man. The only characters that I think really caught anyone off guard were Rosalina, Wii Fit Trainer, Villager and Duck Hunt tbh.

[Palutena] Granted,
[Little Mac] Granted,
[Bowser Jr.] Eh... some people were,
[6th gen pokemon] too vague,
[Fire Emblem Rep] too vague,
[Shulk] Granted,
[Pac-Man] Granted

The bigger problem here though is you aren't looking at all of the false positives there were, and there were a ton. Ridley, K. Rool, Dixie, Takamaru, Various Zelda Reps and tons more I can't be bothered to look up. Our accuracy isn't great.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I remember Girahim had a massive hype train on the boards at one point. As did Meloetta bizarrely enough.

Still say the Brawl times were the strangest tho.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

What would people's reactions be in the hypothetical scenario where Elma ends up being a playable character?

Dissapointed, confused, and if her Moveset doesn't incorporate a good mix of her swords and guns, really unintrested.

If Elma got in I'd assume Rex isn't in till at least dlc which also means an ARMs character is unlikely for basegame, thus sadness.

I also thought Elma was super undeewhelming when I played X and got her off my team. I liked her class though (my Cross played that class) so if they didn't take inspiration from the ability to quickly change from short range to long range , I won't even have any intrest in playing her.

(On the other hand having a playable woman of color in smash would be super cool. So, yay I guess).

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I remember Girahim had a massive hype train on the boards at one point. As did Meloetta bizarrely enough.

Still say the Brawl times were the strangest tho.

I still remember a lot of people being disappointed when Ghirahim was confirmed to be an AT.

 

[Polan]

Only 70%? My bot's been 100% right for every game. Granted it just periodically outputs "There will be characters in the next smash brothers game," but he ain't been wrong yet.

what an amateur. my character predictions are 200% accurate. I have transcended time and space and have predicted all the smash bros rosters, including the one's that haven't even been made.

 

[blackghost]

I still remember a lot of people being disappointed when Ghirahim was confirmed to be an AT.

when brawl came up we assumed (rightfully) th at the latest zelda would get a character. they had done it with shiek already and at announcement becuase shiek wasnt in TP we weren't even sure shed be back.
the xenoblade crowd makes me laugh. If sakurai loves these games as much as it appears he does both elma and rex/pyra could make it in.

we could go from people arguing which xenoblade character gets in to "Sakurai is bias and loves xeno too much." yep knowing us that is very likely to happen.

also over 1000 pages into thread on smash switch and someone is STILL compalining about bayo inclusion or questioning her ballot performance.
Let. It. Go. at this point its just sad.
speaking of bayo can she get her fox or samus costumes in smash switch that would be awesome. (no she ain't getting her peach one. lol)

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

Oh god imagine the ****storm that would go down if both Elma and Rex got in as completely unique characters in the base roster tho lmao. That's the best scenario to me but everyone would be crying lol.

 

[-crump-]

What would people's reactions be in the hypothetical scenario where Elma ends up being a playable character?

I would be pretty excited, but not bouncing off the walls. I never finished XCX, but I was pretty fond of Elma from what I did play, and I think her abilities make her a perfect candidate for Smash. I also really like her design, much more than anyone from XC2.

I think in general it would be a veeeery mixed bag.

You have the XC2 fans who want their characters in and feel jipped that the older, less successful title is getting more representation over their game, and on top of that you have the legion of people who hate any character who looks even slightly “anime-esque”.

But if she was really flashy and fast like she was in XCX, I think a lot of fans would still be hyped.

 

[Roberk]

I'd be happy as hell, though a lot of people seem to be expecting Rex to get in so maybe some confusion among the general public but tbh the same happened when robin got in over chrom. Although if they announce a XCX port/sequel beforehand it would certainly soften that blow.

I don't think the reaction to Elma over Rex would be the same as Robin over Chrom. Robin and Chrom were from the same game so their popularity from people who played Awakening was about the same. They were also both on a console that was the same generation of Smash 4. The Xeno characters are in a different boat since Rex is from the Switch, the console the next Smash is on, and his game did massively better than Elma's. Elma is from the last generation of consoles and has significantly less recognition from people who own a Switch.

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

I don't think the reaction to Elma over Rex would be the same as Robin over Chrom. Robin and Chrom were from the same game so their popularity from people who played Awakening was about the same. They were also both on a console that was the same generation of Smash 4. The Xeno characters are in a different boat since Rex is from the Switch, the console the next Smash is on, and his game did massively better than Elma's. Elma is from the last generation of consoles and has significantly less recognition from people who own a Switch.

I just mean that Elma wouldn't be as recognizable to general consumers in the way Rex is. Much like how Robin was practically unknown outside of FE fans and Smash speculators and everyone was expecting Chrom instead. Obviously not the same scenario exactly but yeah.