First of all, I'd like to introduce myself:
Hello everyone, I'm Axel and I'm a Mac main from europe, english is not my mother tongue so I'll excuse myself in advance for all the mistakes I'm probably going to make here
I don't own a WiiU to practice on, so my tech skill is not always on point (I still struggle to include PP into my gameplay for instance), this also means that my main form of training is watching matches and reading stuff online (I'm pretty knowledgeable about the game's mechanics, characters' frame data, fighting game theory and so on)
Luckily tho there's a lively tournament scene where I live, meaning I get to play at least regularly
All that said, I wanted to discuss about Mac's matchups and confront my opinions with other Mac players (I noticed that even Sol hangs around this board, I'd really really like to hear his take about this)
I'll classify his matchups into 'disadvantageous', 'slightly disadvantageous' (which means almost even), 'evenish', 'slightly advantageous', 'advantageous'
also, matchups where I don't really have an opinion on (because of a lack of data and experience) I'll leave empty
Little Mac matchup impressions
Bowser
I used to believe this matchup to be in the evenish range (or even slightly in Mac's favour), the recent patch tho greatly buffed Bowser's punish game with his new uthrow, and his big grab range could be a real problem now
Can't really say now, I'll have to wait and see how this turns out
Bowser Jr
Never really fought a good one so I can't really say anything about this matchup. On paper it does not look so bad tho
Captain Falcon
Disadvantageous. Falcon is one of the characters I fear the most. He has the speed to keep up with Little Mac and his down throw is like a nightmare for Mac, If you DI away from him in order to minimize his follow ups you put yourself closer to the edge of the stage/offstage which means you risk of dieing extremely early with a dair spike read or a normal edgeguard attempt, if you DI inwards you get hit by a lot of upairs, and every bit of dammage counts because Mac is light and Falcon has a lot of high kb moves
Our usual combo breakers (upB) (nair is a terrible combo breaker because it's negative on hit, best used as a mixup when the opponent does not expect it) don't really work because he juggles below us, so we almost always have to eat hits
If all of this wasn't enough, Falcon's (rapid) jab sends at a ****ty ass horizzontal trajectory and has high bkb, which means that his f3 move can put us offstage easily even at low %s
His down and up tilts also work wonders to intercept Mac's recovery and they are a free gimp if they hit.
The MU is not unwinnable tho (there are no really unwinnable MUs), our punish game is pretty amazing against a character with physics like Falcon, his recovery is very easy to exploit and we have the tools to try and keep him out.
Charizard
Evenish. I personally feel like the matchup could easily be in Mac's favour if it weren't for the HUGE grab range of Charizard which gives zard good ways to throw us offstage and try to edgeguard us with his lingering nair (which can be used as a pseudo frame trap) and long ranged fair
Diddy Kong
I sadly have no experience in this MU (not against good players at least), but it feels like a slightly disadvantageous one
Donkey Kong
I hear a lot of people claiming this to be a really hard matchup for Mac. Personally, I don't see it, you just have to play a lot more patiently than usual and it becomes manageable. I'd say it's about evenish
Duck Hunt
This feels like a good matchup for Little Mac, probably and advantageous one. We can muscle through his projectiles thanks to our ground speed and we kill him quite early, while he has to work a lot to get us to kill%. His recovery is easily down smashable and he can't gimp us all that easily.
Falco
Evenish to slightly advantageous? I don't really feel threatened by Falco, but I don't have a lot of experience in this matchup either, so who knows
Fox
Slightly disadvantageous
Mr. Game & Watch
Dunno
Ganondorf
I personally feel like Ganondorf is a slightly disadvantageous matchup for Mac, he can abuse of our TERRIBLE tech rolls with his sideB and kills us extremely early with stuff like ftilt. We can manage to outspace him with our good tilts&frame data but the moment we make a mistake it's gonna cost really hard.
Greninja
It's really hard to find Greninja players so I'm not really sure what to think about this MU. It looks kinda evenish, but hydro pump is a real pain in the ass.
Ike
Slightly disadvantageous. If we get offstage against Ike we have basically lost the stock. Between Eruption and fsmash it's really really hard to get back on stage
Jigglypuff
Disadvantageous. Yes, I'm not joking (sadly). The problem in this MU is that Jigglypuff doesn't give a **** about our best neutral tools like dtilt, also, she has a great dash grab. Our best tool against her is our uptilt, but it can be baited and punished (!!!) thanks to her weaving ability in the air.
If she gets us offstage it's time to cry. Thank god she dies extremely early tho.
King Dedede
Advantageous. Dedede get's bodied by our frame data and can't land for ****. His only safe-ish tools in neutral against us are jab and ftilt, both of which can be punished. The only dangerous thing Dedede can do is try to get us offstage whit an inhale at the ledge, but it can be beaten by a properly spaced fsmash
I'm pretty positive in the knowledge of this matchup because I've played (and beaten) some REALLY good players (better than me supposedly)
Kirby
Evenish
Link
Slightly disadvantageous
Little Mac
90:10 for Little Mac
Lucario
Evenish
Luigi
Slightly advantageous
Mario
Slightly disadvantageous
Dr. Mario
Evenish
Marth
Slightly disadvantageous
Lucina
Slightly disadvantageous
Metaknight
Slightly disadvantageous
Ness
Disadvantageous.
Olimar
Don't really know
Palutena
Evenish
Pikachu
On the disadvantageous side (no experience)
Pit & Dark Pit
Slightly disadvantageous
Peach
Disadvantageous.
Zelda
Advantageous
R.O.B.
Evenish
Robin
Evenish
Rosalina
On the disadvantageous side (no experience)
Samus
Advantageous. Samus has SERIOUS problems when trying to reset to neutral against us, her missiles are just a mere annoyance and easily shielded (they have a FAF of like 60+ frames which means that they are not spammable) and she also has trouble in keeping us out, and up close we can overpower her with our frame data.
Sheik
Disadvantageous. (but actually really doable, it's not the impossible matchup it was hyped up to be early in the game lifespan)
Shulk
Slightly advantageous
Toon Link
Slightly disadvantageous
Villager
Evenish
Wario
Dunno, looks evenish
Wii Fit Trainer
Dunno, looks evenish
Yoshi
Slightly disadvantageous
Zero Suit Samus
Slightly disadvantageous
Megaman
Dunno, looks evenish
Pacman
Dunno, looks in Pacman's favour tho
Sonic
Disadvantageous.
Ryu
Evenish
Roy
Evenish
Mewtwo
Dunno, looks slightly in our favour
Lucas
Dunno, looks evenish
Brawler
Swordfighter
Gunner
sorry, got bored halway through, might edit with more insight in the future
edit: I wanted to add: the only teether grabs which give Mac trouble are Toon/Link's, they come out at frame12, and our dtilt just so happens to be -12 on out of shield options, the only way not to get shield grabbed would be to space the down tilt "badly" in order to be slightly more close and trade with their grab with our f1 jab (when too far the jab won't usually trade)