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Smash 4 Speculation Chart [WE UPDATE NOW]

Cheezey Bites

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Hudson don't have a say, but they can do the leg work. The same is what happened for snake, Kojima did the leg work, suggesting and convincing, while Konami just gave the green light.

Konami don't care about Nintendo, so any of their characters are going to be requested by the original developers... Since this is still a possibility the speculation comes from if Hudson would, Samurai would accept and Konami greenlight (and why wouldn't they want free advertising, or possibly demand a small fee?). A long shot at best, but each step is logically possible.
 

Ghirahilda

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I think Bomberman deserves to be in Smash more than Snake. Bomberman is more classic. People get aluci-crazy on Snake just because he showed up in Brawl. Now the latests Metal Gears games (besides the 3DS) didn't come for Wii neither Wii U
 

God Robert's Cousin

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I think Bomberman deserves to be in Smash more than Snake. Bomberman is more classic. People get aluci-crazy on Snake just because he showed up in Brawl. Now the latests Metal Gears games (besides the 3DS) didn't come for Wii neither Wii U
And I agree with you on Bomberman deserving the spot more than Snake, but the fact of the matter is that in reality, Snake is just much easier to implement. Hideo Kojima is the one that actively wanted Snake in Smash Bros.--it wasn't the opposite where Sakurai was asking permission on his own. With Bomberman adopted by Konami, there's no creator to rally behind Bomberman's inclusion. It'd strictly be Sakurai asking to add Bomberman, which, since Sakurai has made it clear that third-party additions are not exactly a simple process, does not sound hopeful for Bomberman. Additionally, between (one of) the company's mascots that has defined popularity in Smash and the IP acquired from a bankrupt company, which do you think Konami would be more likely to greenlight for Smash Bros.?

Bomberman totally deserves Smash Bros. more than Snake, especially when you compare resumes, but based on the two characters' real-world situations, we're likely to just get either Snake by himself or no Konami rep at all.
 

AEMehr

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"Snake", Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Layton, and Slime.

Can we just go with that?
me groosta

----
THE NEXT UPDATE IS LIVE!!!
Pre-64

Changes since last version...
• The Retro Franchises Chart is now the Pre-64 Chart, which contains characters from miscellaneous franchises that debuted before the release of Super Smash Bros. for the Nintendo 64.
• Punch-Out!!, Excitebike, and The Wars franchises have been moved to this chart.
• Due to character vote: Goku, Famicom Detective, Ayumi Tachibana, Mr. Stevenson, Dr. Wright, The Marvelous Heroes, Mike Anderson, Hakkun, and Yuan Delta have been removed from the chart.
• Wild Gunman, Giga Mac, Starman, Jake, Prince Richard, Hawk, Goose, and Lark have been added at Golden's request.

Pre-Melee

Changes since last version...
• The Retro < Series > Pikmin Chart is now the Pre-Melee Chart, whic contains characters from miscellaneous franchises that debuted before the release of Super Smash Bros. Melee and after the release of Super Smash Bros. for the Nintendo 64.
• Due to character vote: Ryoto Hayami, Heracles, Icarus, Hiroshi, and Satoru have been removed from the chart.
• The Villager (Female) has been added to the chart at Golden's request.

Pre-Brawl

Changes since last version...
• The Pikmin < Series > Brawl Chart is now the Pre-Brawl Chart, which contains characters from miscellaneous franchises that debuted before the released of Super Smash Bros. Brawl and after the release of Super Smash Bros. Melee.
• The Wii Fit Franchise was moved to this chart, some say that you can almost hear Sakurai's [laugh] in the distance.
• Due to character vote: Jill, Alexandra, Rovias, John Raimi, Will-O-Wisp Student, Mokka, Miss Madeline, Demille, Cupit, Ashley Robbins, Kyle Hyde, Ryuta Ippongi, The Elite Beat Agents *tears*, Warrior Mech Gauss, and Aisya have been removed from the chart.
• Nintendog, Ninten(sakurai's)cat, Dr. Kawashima, Devilish Dr. Kawashima, Wii Fit Trainer (Female), Wii Fit Trainer (Male), Samurai Steve, Rhythm Wrestler, Rhythm Reporter, Rhythm Monkey, and Rhythm Girl for multiple reasons.
• Starfy and Nintendog have been confirmed to be assist trophies, the green backgrounds reflects their status as an item.
• At this point, I believe it a common belief that the Wii Fit Trainer male is an alternate costume. So his background is purple to reflect that.

Pre-For Wii U & 3DS

Changes since last version...
• The Brawl < Series > SSB4 Chart is now the Pre-For Wii U & 3DS Chart, which contains characters from miscellaneous franchises that debuted before the released of Super Smash Bros. for Wii U & 3DS and after the release of Super Smash Bros. Brawl.
• Due to character vote: Freyr, Freia, Raymond Bryce, Monita, Welt, Sakura Samurai, Tempo, and Nintendouji have been removed from the chart.
• Added in Fossil Fighter (Female) to the chart at Golden's request.

And like that, I'm done until we decide what's going on with Third-Parties. But let's see some more confirmations and deconfirmations Sakurai!
 

God Robert's Cousin

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Yeeee. Unless I'm colorblind, however, I don't think Mister Wii Fit Trainer has a purple background so much as gray.

Also, another idea came to mind. It's broad, but it'd definitely keep things accurate. Instead of representing characters themselves, why don't we rep third-parties by company instead? Working under the same premise as "X Protagonist", it'll save a lot of headaches later in that as soon as a character from said company is confirmed, we replace said company with the character instead.

Thus:
Sonic, Mega Man, Konami rep, Namco-Bandai rep, Level-Five rep, Square Enix rep, Ubisoft rep, and Platinum Games rep.

Unless we get some sort of extremely obscure 3rd-party addition, we'd essentially wrap this chart up without any true errors. Although it rather goes against our goal here, being less specific, doesn't it? Hm. All I know for sure is that we should stay within the boundaries of the above. Snake, Simon Belmont, Bomberman, Pac-Man, Lloyd, Professor Layton, Slime, Rayman, Travis Touchdown, and Bayonetta should be the furthest extent our third-party chart goes. Can we at least agree to stay within this pool of characters?
 
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Ghirahilda

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And I agree with you on Bomberman deserving the spot more than Snake, but the fact of the matter is that in reality, Snake is just much easier to implement. Hideo Kojima is the one that actively wanted Snake in Smash Bros.--it wasn't the opposite where Sakurai was asking permission on his own. With Bomberman adopted by Konami, there's no creator to rally behind Bomberman's inclusion. It'd strictly be Sakurai asking to add Bomberman, which, since Sakurai has made it clear that third-party additions are not exactly a simple process, does not sound hopeful for Bomberman. Additionally, between (one of) the company's mascots that has defined popularity in Smash and the IP acquired from a bankrupt company, which do you think Konami would be more likely to greenlight for Smash Bros.?

Bomberman totally deserves Smash Bros. more than Snake, especially when you compare resumes, but based on the two characters' real-world situations, we're likely to just get either Snake by himself or no Konami rep at all.
This is so sad! Maybe he will get a better chance in a next SSB. Since we got Sonic in Brawl, Megaman now, I'm wondering who will be the next more wanted third party character.
 

AEMehr

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Yeeee. Unless I'm colorblind, however, I don't think Mister Wii Fit Trainer has a purple background so much as gray.
No it's Purple alright, the same Purple I used for our Boss roster.
Also, another idea came to mind. It's broad, but it'd definitely keep things accurate. Instead of representing characters themselves, why don't we rep third-parties by company instead? Working under the same premise as "X Protagonist", it'll save a lot of headaches later in that as soon as a character from said company is confirmed, we replace said company with the character instead.

Thus:
Sonic, Mega Man, Konami rep, Namco-Bandai rep, Level-Five rep, Square Enix rep, Ubisoft rep, and Platinum Games rep.

Unless we get some sort of extremely obscure 3rd-party addition, we'd essentially wrap this chart up without any true errors. Although it rather goes against our goal here, being less specific, doesn't it? Hm. All I know for sure is that we should stay within the boundaries of the above. Snake, Simon Belmont, Bomberman, Pac-Man, Lloyd, Professor Layton, Slime, Rayman, Travis Touchdown, and Bayonetta should be the furthest extent our third-party chart goes. Can we at least agree to stay within this pool of characters?
That wouldn't make sense for Level-5 though. The only character that would make sense from them is Layton. Also wouldn't Wonder Red still technically be the Platinum Game rep? I believe it's better that we guess on characters rather than companies, since the only companies we can't be 100% on are Namco and SquareEnix. But even then it is commonly agreed that it would be Pac-Man from Namco, so the only company that would necessarily need it is Square Enix.

I'd rather we stick with characters rather than taking the vague and easy route.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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No it's Purple alright, the same Purple I used for our Boss roster.

I'd rather we stick with characters rather than taking the vague and easy route.
I'm trying my darnedest to squint and see the purple, and it still looks like gray to me, even compared to the other panels around it. I really hope I'm not colorblind...

Fair enough. We can agree then that the pool of characters I just laid out would be a good place to leave us at, if to not trim off more there, yes?
 

AEMehr

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I'm trying my darnedest to squint and see the purple, and it still looks like gray to me, even compared to the other panels around it. I really hope I'm not colorblind...

Fair enough. We can agree then that the pool of characters I just laid out would be a good place to leave us at, if to not trim off more there, yes?
yes yes

To be honest, I'm very surprised nobody has mentioned the little detail I hid in the chart...
 
D

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Does it have to do with the strange....thing....in the silhouette used for the Mii?
 
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...You sure? Cuz I'm seeing some sort of Jason Vorhees hockey mask-like thing in the center just...staring into my soul.....
 

AEMehr

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...You sure? Cuz I'm seeing some sort of Jason Vorhees hockey mask-like thing in the center just...staring into my soul.....
Yup, pretty sure. I did the effect myself so.

But look elsewhere on the charts, the detail is only on one of them.
 
D

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Oh God....I'm hoping that face on the WFT's icons is Sakurai's and not Majin Sonic's.....
 
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Sneaky sneaky, AEM.

Funny how trying to see something in the Mii silhouette led me to see the face next to it.
 

FalKoopa

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Say, AEM, can you send me the link to the picture you used in Lip's icon? (I know I'm getting off-topic, but eh..)
 

Scoliosis Jones

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As far as a Platinum Games rep, I'll say it again.

Wonder Red is a NINTENDO character. The series is a Nintendo IP, but Platinum is just the developer or whatever. Wonder Red is a first party character, and therefore would not be a 3rd party Platinum rep.

As far as 3rd parties are concerned, Sakurai's mention that only legendary third parties are eligible needs to be taken into account. This tells me, that if you aren't: Snake, Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Simon Belmont (who is unlikely anyway)and maybe Layton, you shouldn't be on that chart. ESPECIALLY not Bayonetta. Nothing is legendary about her, and besides the game she has that isn't even out yet, she has nothing to do with Nintendo.

Maybe I'm biased, but she really shouldn't be there. I don't really know who you would pick as a Square Enix character either. I mean they have those Mario crossover games, but that's just a White/Black Mage, Moogle, Cactuar, and Ninja. I can't really comment on them I suppose.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Let's put a picture of the Black Mage for Final Fantasy and say it covers them all so even if Sakurai's bizzaro world copy replaces him and puts Cloud in the game we're covered.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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She's in Wonderful 101.
...and? It's a cameo appearance. That isn't really a major thing at any stretch.

That's like saying Geno should be on the chart because of his cameo in Mario & Luigi.

Not to mention that none of that makes her "legendary"; not even close.
 
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....there's a difference between a guest appearance and a cameo. Cameos typically aren't unlockable playable characters.
Takamaru in Samurai Warriors 3 isn't a cameo to you, is it?

Aside from that, my only point was that the "aside from the unreleased Bayonetta 2, she has nothing to do with Nintendo" statement was false. Nothing more.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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It's a false statement, but being a hidden unlockable doesn't help her chances in scale of Smash Bros.

You literally get no mention of her in the game, nor are there any indications of how to unlock her. Promotional material never hinted at her being one of 100 characters in the game. I've beaten Wonderful 101 and I've still yet to unlock her. She's Nintendo, yes, but practically in the most obscure sense. I'd go as far as to say that even Punch-Out gets more of a presence in Wonderful 101 than Bayonetta does, actually. You get a couple of story-related, mecha-sparring bossfights in the game that play exactly like Punch-Out, down to the teetering sound of the bosses when you knock them down. :)

Point being, while what Jones said isn't technically accurate, I see what he's getting at. When the game is throwing the company's friggin' name and logo at you everywhere you step in the story, you'd think Bayonetta would have more than a low-profile cameo if she was significant to the game, considering Platinum Games' *ahem* self-modesty.
 
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Guybrush20X6

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So the list so far

Sonic
Mega Man
Snake (Solid or Naked... wow, dirty)
Simon Belmont
Pac-Man
Professor Layton
Square Enix Character (Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest)

and a lotta arguing over Bayonetta
 
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God Robert's Cousin

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Yeah, I did the research. You essentially need to have everything in the game, which involves beating the whole game on every difficulty setting and collecting every "block" item. Considering how the game is already difficult on its Normal setting, it's extremely possible that a good chunk of the people who play Wonderful 101 will never even know who Bayonetta is. Compared to Rosalina being unlocked in 3D World simply for beating the second level of the post-game and getting her own trailer from Nintendo, Bayonetta is on a Nintendo console in technicalities only and would be extremely obscure for a 3rd-party character.

Additionally, when I was looking for shown research and points for why Bayonetta should be in Smash Bros. (which there were hardly any of, according to her support thread), I came across this post that speaks for itself.
The reason she won't be included, the only reason that matters, is that she lacks the Legendary aspect that Sakurai looks for in 3rd Parties. Sonic, Snake, and Mega Man are Giants of gaming. So much so that they were included in SSB even though Mega Man hasn't had a new game in ages and even though Sonic's games are declining in quality. Bayonetta is a legend in no facet of the word: she just doesn't have the right stuff. She's got the right stuff for fanboy erections, NSFW fanart and that faux, B-Movie "edginess" that comes from being an over-the-top, sexual-ized, Femme Fatale character type. But there are only a few characters deserving of a 3rd Party spot, and she just isn't one. The point of 3rd parties, yes, is to bring more fans from other games to Smash, but is not to do so haphazardly. Fans of Sonic, Mega Man and Snake grew up with these games and love these characters. Clearly, I'm not saying Bayonetta isn't a loved character, simply that she has only been around since 2009-2010 and 3-4 years is simply not enough time to garner the type of response or nostalgia that these other characters bring to the table. (I doubt that people were ever sitting around and they seriously asked, "Who would win a fight: Mario or Bayonetta?" That idea is stupid. However a competition between Sonic and Mario makes far more sense given their historic rivalry.) Someone like Pac-Man or Bomberman; gaming icons which are more deserving despite their failure to transition to the modern era. After them come lesser known 3rd parties that still have an avid sense of nostalgia about them: Geno, Lloyd, Crono, Crash, Simon Belmont, Spyro, Banjo, etc. The only more recent 3rd party with a chance would be Professor Layton because he's made quite a name for himself in the past few years. However, I suspect that there is only 1 (POSSIBLY 2) third party spot left in SSB4 and it may just go to Snake. Adding just anyone because they have a game on a Nintendo console would just seem like pandering and Nintendo isn't like that. (Would it make sense to add Edward Kenway, the Assassin from Assassin's Creed IV, just because he had a game on the Wii U? **** no.) If they did do that, they would lose my respect as a company.

It is fine to make a support topic for a character you don't believe can get into the game, but stop clinging to bits of useless information like they prove something: they don't. It's sick. It's dumb. And annoying. It's even annoyed the creator of Bayonetta. The only proof is the Dojo. I do think that if Bayonetta games keep getting made her popularity could reach a level where hoping for inclusion in Smash wouldn't be insane. I'd say maybe Smash 6. Until then discuss moveset possibilities, how she would fit in/stand out and what you like about her games. You can't wave theoretical release date info and clearly sarcastic tweets around like they're proof. It's dumb. As dumb as saying Pyrosphere destroy Ridley's chances as a playable character or that this long without a reveal that Ridley is a stage hazard proves he's playable. We literally know nothing. Deal with it.

That being said I have nothing against Bayonetta. And I would still buy SSB4 and play as her if she were playable. I also wanted to get Bayonetta but just sort of forget about it.
...

I really don't think we need to put Bayonetta on the chart.
 
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The post treats Layton as if he was a legend and Geno as closer to legend than Bayonetta for "nostalgia" despite just being a one-time MARIO character.

Not that I disagree that Bayonetta hasn't achieved the same status that the three known Smash guests have, but what that post speaks about itself.....is not pretty as far as I see.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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The primary difference between Bayonetta and Geno is the scale and time between their camps. Layton's no legend either, but I find it hard to believe that Layton's 7 Nintendo-exclusive games would be seen on equal grounds with Bayonetta's "almost" 2 Nintendo-exclusive games.

Regardless of our views of Geno and Layton, the main thesis I'm trying to get out is that Bayonetta barely has any significance to Nintendo beyond a cameo in one game and a game that hasn't even come out yet. On her own merits, Bayonetta seems like an extremely obscure character addition is what the post speaks about itself, is my point.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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All I mean is, that Bayonetta, despite an extremely obscure playable appearance, is still not even close to being in the same echelon as Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, Pac...etc

She isn't legendary by any stretch of the word, she's got almost no connection to Nintendo... If Snake doesn't "fit the style" as some people say, then Bayonetta would likely have a much harder time.

Based on the "legendary" statement, I think Layton is farfetched too. He COULD get in if his creator can convince Sakurai, but I'm not sure about that either.

Maybe I was incorrect about the statement regarding her role in Wonderful 101, but it's still pretty insignificant.
 

SmasherMaster

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What happens if Platinum games does become a second party to Nintendo? Is Bayonetta then belong to Nintendo like how Banjo, Kazooie and Conker are Microsoft's characters?
 

fogbadge

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its been a while since this thread last had an argument about a character who probably wont be in the game one way or the other
 

God Robert's Cousin

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The only absolutes for the chart at this point are Sonic, Mega Man, Snake, and Pac-Man. Anyone else is extremely subjective, now that I see it.

We could either simply leave the 3rd-party chart at those four, or we could add other less-than-legendary-yet-still-possible choices. If the latter, Layton, Slime, and Bayonetta on top of the above four sounds fine in my opinion. Lloyd could easily be taken off the chart and no substantial damage (outside of to Divine's feelings) would be done. Considering how 3rd-party characters aren't exactly something Sakurai will find to be positive if they're unexpected, I think we're fine excluding other folks like Bomberman, Rayman, and Simon.
 
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Agreed.
Though maaaaybe leave Slime out considering the idea of Slime in Smash was never really brought up by SE.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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So then Snake, Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Professor Layton, and Bayonetta sound like the appropriate chart.

Wait, does this mean we're all done with all the charts when AEM finishes 3rd party? That's friggin' awesome.
 
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