Smash 4 Speculation Chart [WE UPDATE NOW]

[BluePikmin11]

Sutte Hakkun was released in English? O-o

 

[Deleted member]

No. It wasn't.
The Nintendo Power cartridge had nothing to do with the English magazine of the same name.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Interesting a new Nintendo fact I never knew of. I'll try to keep that in mind.

 

[Deleted member]

I am however, not opposed to trimming down the listing such as Hakkun (since really, no one knows/cares about him and he doesn't really offer that much to work with).

But I'm not so quick to nix the Marvelous Trio. They at least were requested for Melee, something that most "retros" can't claim.
Here's the full list:

Other NES/SNES characters
1. Sukapon (Joy Mech Fight): 15 votes
2. Lip (Panel de Pon): 9 votes
3. Prince Richard (For the Frog the Bell Tolls): 8 votes
4. Metroid: 6 votes
5. Spike (Wrecking Crew): 6 votes
6. Pit (Kid Icarus): 5 votes
7. "Protagonists of Shin Onigashima" (which would be Donbe & Hikari): 5 votes
8. "Heroes of Marvelous": 5 votes
9. Samurai Goroh (F-Zero): 4 votes
10. Popo and Nana (Ice Climber): 4 votes
11. "Protagonist of Balloon Fight": 4 votes

Interesting how Urban Champion, Bubbles, Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Takamaru weren't voted for, yet have all been mentioned by Sakurai at least once.
Also interesting that Sabure Prince wasn't voted for while the secondary Prince Richard was.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

I swear to god I look these things up beforehand... Point taken.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I am however, not opposed to trimming down the listing such as Hakkun (since really, no one knows/cares about him and he doesn't really offer that much to work with).

But I'm not so quick to nix the Marvelous Trio. They at least were requested for Melee, something that most "retros" can't claim.
Here's the full list:



Interesting how Urban Champion, Bubbles, Excitebiker, Mach Rider, and Takamaru weren't voted for, yet have all been mentioned by Sakurai at least once.
Also interesting that Sabure Prince wasn't voted for while the secondary Prince Richard was.

o___o My god, they pick Prince Richard more than Sable, perhaps he had the better "handsome" look.
It just goes to show there's love for the For the Frog the Bell Tolls. Embarrass

 

[FlareHabanero]

o___o My god, they pick Prince Richard more than Sable, perhaps he had the better "handsome" look.

It kind of helps that the character makes a cameo appearance in The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening, unlike Sable.

 

[BluePikmin11]

It kind of helps that the character makes a cameo appearance in The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening, unlike Sable.

But clearly Sable is the main character of the FTFTBT franchise.
I wouldn't be against the inclusion of Richard, but Sable must come first before Richard!!!!!

 

[Deleted member]

At this point, I'm thinking of narrowing down the list by first going over which franchises have something to do with Smash (other than a Sticker), then which ones aren't region exclusive (which harms American-exclusive characters more since Japan is unlikely to know they even exist).

EDIT: And including one more: Wart.
He seems to be more of a "Doki Doki Panic" character, seeing as the only Mario game he's been in was Super Mario Bros. 2/USA, which was Doki Doki Panic but with a Mario skin. His only other appearance was Link's Awakening, and I highly doubt he makes sense listed as a Zelda character.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Is there a possibility you could add Prince Richard to the speculation chart also, since you mentioned that pre-Melee poll?

 

[FlareHabanero]

At this point, I'm thinking of narrowing down the list by first going over which franchises have something to do with Smash (other than a Sticker), then which ones aren't region exclusive (which harms American-exclusive characters more since Japan is unlikely to know they even exist).

The only notable example I can think character wise for the latter is Mike Jones from StarTropics. I would say other examples like Sukapon and Lip for the context of Japanese exclusivity, but considering that the Super Smash Bros. games tend to have a Japanese bias for those type of things (for obvious reasons), I'm not 100% sure.

 

[Deleted member]

Considering we've had the Lip's Stick since Melee and Sakurai has discussed Sukapon before (albeit in a "don't expect him" manner), they would be suitable for staying.

Mike Jones, maybe. Considering that StarTropics was brought up to Sakurai in an interview in regards to reviving other old franchises and that R.O.B.'s blue color might be a nod to Nav-Com from the game, he should at least be aware of its existence.

@Blue: Richard, maybe.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

EDIT: And including one more: Wart.
He seems to be more of a "Doki Doki Panic" character, seeing as the only Mario game he's been in was Super Mario Bros. 2/USA, which was Doki Doki Panic but with a Mario skin. His only other appearance was Link's Awakening, and I highly doubt he makes sense listed as a Zelda character.

Wouldn't he still count as Mario, considering Japan acknowledges the American SMB2 as Super Mario Bros. USA? I feel like you could argue that Birdo and Shy Guy are all Doki Doki Panic characters under that logic. They debuted in Doki Doki Panic yet have made appearances in non-Mario series games. The amount of appearances he's made aside, Wart was adopted into the Mario franchise just the same as those two. Imajin would make plenty more sense as a Doki Doki Panic character, considering how he's exclusively from Doki Doki Panic.

My point is that I don't think we need to add Wart at all in that it serves nothing significant.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Prince Richard would easily serve as a last minute semi-clone of Prince Sable.

 

[Deleted member]

Ignoring Veteran franchises:

Sheriff: Trophy in Melee; may or may not be Nintendo's first existing protagonist.
Balloon Fight: Flipper Item in Melee; fish hazard on Summit in Brawl; Villager has a move reference (possible disconfirmation); Sakurai discussed BF as part of his NES character search.
Punch-Out: Little Mac Assist Trophy in Brawl; series was revived; possible stage in Smash 4.
Duck Hunt: Ducks Trophy in Melee; too iconic to leave out.
Devil World: Tamagon Trophy in Melee (removed overseas); Devil Assist Trophy in Brawl.
Urban Champion: Sakurai discussed UC as part of his NES character search.
Clu Clu Land: Bubbles Trophy in Melee; Sakurai discussed her as part of his NES character search; Unira Item in Brawl.
Excitebike: Trophy in Melee; Sakurai discussed EB as part of his NES character search; Assist Trophy in Brawl; Excitetruck Trophy in Brawl; series expanded.
Wrecking Crew: Golden Hammer Item in Brawl.
Mach Rider: Trophy in Melee; was stated as Sakurai's "hopeful" for Melee.
Famicon Computer Disk System: Diskun Trophy in Melee.
Mystery of Murasame Castle: Takamaru mentioned as possible character by Sakurai; Takamaru has become more relevant. JAPAN ONLY GAME
Shin Onigashima: Donbe & Hikari Trophy in Melee. JAPAN ONLY GAME
Famicom Detective Club: Ayumi Trophy in Melee. JAPAN ONLY GAME
Famicom Wars: Infantry & Tanks Assist Trophy in Brawl.
SimCity: Dr. Wright Trophy in Melee and Assist Trophy in Brawl.
Wave Race: Ryuta Trophy in Melee.
Joy Mech Fight: Sakurai discussed Sukapon in the past (possible disconfirmation, however). JAPAN ONLY GAME
Panel de Pon: Lip's Stick Item in Melee and Brawl; Kirby Stone reference in Melee and Brawl; Sakurai brought up her game as a "masterpiece"; series expanded. JAPAN ONLY CHARACTER
Mole Mania: Sakurai expressed interest in Muddy pre-Brawl.


Gumshoe: Nothing. NEVER RELEASED IN JAPAN
Pro Wrestling: Absolutely nothing. Game is iconic, though with "A WINNER IS YOU!" and the real life Star Man wrestler.
Glory of Heracles: Nothing except series was revived.
Yuyuki: Nothing. JAPAN ONLY GAME
StarTropics: Possible reference in recolor, but nothing else. NEVER RELEASED IN JAPAN
For the Frog the Bell Tolls: Just Stickers in Brawl. Richard was requested for Melee, though.
Battle Clash: Super Scope Item in Melee and Brawl, though isn't specifically a Battle Clash item.
Marvelous: Nothing. The trio was requested for Melee, though. JAPAN ONLY GAMES
Sutte Hakkun: Absolutely nothing. JAPAN ONLY GAMES

Others:
Pilotwings: Stage in Smash 4.


Wild Gunman: Nothing but a sticker.
...but wait a minute.
The original arcade game of Wild Gunman was in 1976. Which predates Sheriff.....
so is....the Wild Gunman guy....the REAL first protagonist of Nintendo not including the EVR Racers?!?

Step aside Sheriff; there's 'nother cowboy 'round these parts itchin' to steal your thunder.

...moving on.
Teleroboxer: Absolutely nothing.
EVR Race: Absolutely nothing. Farthest back Smash references is Wild Gunman.
Nester's Funky Bowling: Absolutely nothing. NEVER RELEASED IN JAPAN
Stunt Race: Nothing but stickers.

I'll make my judgments later on tonight.

 

[Pacack]

Stuff

I almost thing we might want to include things that had stickers. It's not like there were a lot of them.

We would only add For the Frog the Bell Tolls, Stunt Race, and Wild Gunman to the list.

Also, my understanding is that the original "Wild Gunman" did not have that character which we call "Wild Gunman". There were only enemies that might count. Nothing on the original cabinet.

Although I would argue to add him along with the other two with sticker references (as it's arguable that Wild Gunman was "revived" and given the character, thus making him a possible candidate), I think we should do a bit of a poll on it.

 

[fogbadge]

@Fogbadge:
If we went by that line of thinking more than half of the list in general would be removed as there is hardly a liable chance for a majority of the characters.

fair enough i suppose

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Retros are tricky as while some have a lot of significcance (Mr. G&W) some have had no real past significance at all (Ice Climbers). Best bet would be to include more than cut them. I think the list is pretty complete now anyway.

But if the Golden Hammer counted as a Mario item wouldn't Wrecking Crew count as a Mario game?

 

[Deleted member]

Sakurai has been really weird when it comes to Mario.
SMW's Yoshi's Island is listed as a Yoshi property despite being from a Mario title.
Dr. Mario stickers were given their own category along with Panel de Pon as Nintendo Puzzle Collection yet Dr. Mario was labeled a Mario character in Melee.
Dr. Mario's Chill Theme, the Mario Tennis/Mario Golf song, and the theme to Mario Bros. were not considered "Mario" songs, even in internal data. Same goes for Wrecking Crew's Power-Up theme (which is also used when the Golden Hammer is used).

At this point, considering that Sakurai listed Foreman Spike as a non-"Mario" character on the pre-Melee poll while he lists Yoshi's Island characters like Kamek and Baby Mario as "Mario" characters and third party SMRPG characters Mallow and Geno as well, Spike for now will be labeled separately.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Confusing to say the least. I wonder if Tingle's games will be counted as separate from the Main Zelda series...

Speaking of Mario, guess who's playable in SM3DW?

 

[Pacack]

We need to add Rosalina back to the Mario contenders. She's apparently the fifth playable character in SM3DW...making her extremely relevant again. I'd say she's now the fourth most likely Mario character.

 

[Deleted member]

You guys do realize I already saw it coming, right?
Hence that Mario Update poll?
You know, the one that resulted in Rosalina being added to the chart with Blue Toad?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I did. I only said guess who's back.

Saying, "we did a good thing adding her back" or somethign like that would've been too wordy.

 

[Pacack]

You guys do realize I already saw it coming, right?
Hence that Mario Update poll?
You know, the one that resulted in Rosalina being added to the chart with Blue Toad?

Derp. Nevermind.

Carry on. I'm an idiot.

 

[Deleted member]

You can never be too wordy.

Take it from me, the token tl;dr guy on SmashBoards (or at least I was, until my title was taken by EddyBear).

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

I still stand on the point that Rosalina shouldn't be added now if she wasn't before. Sakurai's roster was decided long before this reveal happened, meaning that if she doesn't seem likely on past credentials, she's not any more likely now. Recency means nothing in a Mario series, otherwise we should add Nabbit too, should we not?

Given, Rosalina's 4 appearances versus Nabbit's 2 makes her obviously easier to pick without choosing Nabbit. I'm mainly saying that if being an important character in two Mario games and being playable in two Mario Karts is enough to consider her as a possibility, then other much more frequently appearing characters should be added to the chart as well. That is of course counterproductive, meaning it makes much more sense to leave Rosalina out if she as a candidate before today didn't seem plausible in the first place.

 

[Pacack]

I still stand on the point that Rosalina shouldn't be added now if she wasn't before. Sakurai's roster was decided long before this reveal happened, meaning that if she doesn't seem likely on past credentials, she's not any more likely now. Recency means nothing in a Mario series, otherwise we should add Nabbit too, should we not?

Given, Rosalina's 4 appearances versus Nabbit's 2 makes her obviously easier to pick without choosing Nabbit. I'm mainly saying that if being an important character in two Mario games and being playable in two Mario Karts is enough to consider her as a possibility, then other much more frequently appearing characters should be added to the chart as well. That is of course counterproductive, meaning it makes much more sense to leave Rosalina out if she as a candidate before today didn't seem plausible in the first place.

Well, to be fair, we can assume that SM3DW's development started right after SM3DL was released, so it's not that much of a stretch to think that Sakurai already knew about the game. Keep in mind that Pokemon X and Y have content in the game, despite being new releases.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I still stand on the point that Rosalina shouldn't be added now if she wasn't before. Sakurai's roster was decided long before this reveal happened, meaning that if she doesn't seem likely on past credentials, she's not any more likely now. Recency means nothing in a Mario series, otherwise we should add Nabbit too, should we not?

Given, Rosalina's 4 appearances versus Nabbit's 2 makes her obviously easier to pick without choosing Nabbit. I'm mainly saying that if being an important character in two Mario games and being playable in two Mario Karts is enough to consider her as a possibility, then other much more frequently appearing characters should be added to the chart as well. That is of course counterproductive, meaning it makes much more sense to leave Rosalina out if she as a candidate before today didn't seem plausible in the first place.

Nabbit appeared playable once as a crutch character in (what started out as) DLC. Rosalina is representative of the Galaxy games and the only Mario character with a backstory beyond "was saved by dinosaurs as a baby". If we're including a playable Toad, we should include Rosalina.

 

[Pacack]

Nabbit appeared playable once as a crutch character in (what started out as) DLC. Rosalina is representative of the Galaxy games and the only Mario character with a backstory beyond "was saved by dinosaurs as a baby". If we're including a playable Toad, we should include Rosalina.

Don't entirely agree, but agree enough on what you're saying.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

Well, to be fair, we can assume that SM3DW's development started right after SM3DL was released, so it's not that much of a stretch to think that Sakurai already knew about the game. Keep in mind that Pokemon X and Y have content in the game, despite being new releases.

You have to take into consideration, however, of when information is given out and to what degree. Can you honestly tell me that it seems even remotely likely that, from the start of development, the SM3DW team immediately decided that they want to make Rosalina an unlockable character? Furthermore, would that necessarily seem relevant in going out of their way to contact Sakurai and let him know such a detail?

Nabbit appeared playable once as a crutch character in (what started out as) DLC. Rosalina is representative of the Galaxy games and the only Mario character with a backstory beyond "was saved by dinosaurs as a baby". If we're including a playable Toad, we should include Rosalina.

Why though?

Because she's recent? That becomes subjective to time then.
Because she's recurrent? Why the hell wouldn't Bowser Jr. be chosen in favor of instead then?
Because she's important to the series? Toad and Bowser Jr. are arguably even more important to the franchise overall.
Because she has backstory? Why the hell should that be a reason?

Objectively, Rosalina offers nothing that makes her worth adding to the chart. If we decided to rule her out before, then she should stay out. Her credibility hasn't changed in the slightest at this point of SSB4's development.

 

[Pacack]

You have to take into consideration, however, of when information is given out and to what degree. Can you honestly tell me that it seems even remotely likely that, from the start of development, the SM3DW team immediately decided that they want to make Rosalina an unlockable character? Furthermore, would that necessarily seem relevant in going out of their way to contact Sakurai and let him know such a detail?

This is a very good point. I concede.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Recency counts as much even though we don't want it to. Do you think Zelda would have Sheik if the princess was introduced to Smash later?

And the backstory matters in a small way as it makes people care about and hence support her. Audience support counts but not as much we'd like it too.

Anyway, Sakurai's choice and I don't know weather he prefers space princess, mushroom men or another Landmaster.

 

[TORNADO BUS DRIVER]

we should go back to talking about retros now..

 

[Pacack]

we should go back to talking about retros now..

Fine by me.

I think what we have laid out is pretty good if we include all games that are referenced in Smash in any form (including stickers).

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Yep Retros.

Keep 'em all, Sakurai but the freaking Ice Climbers in so there's no telling what he'll do when it comes to old school Nintendo.

 

[TORNADO BUS DRIVER]

i feel that all the ones on the chart , even nester , should be kept

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

Recency counts as much even though we don't want it to. Do you think Zelda would have Sheik if the princess was introduced to Smash later?

And the backstory matters in a small way as it makes people care about and hence support her. Audience support counts but not as much we'd like it too.

Probably not, but the fact with that remained that Majora's Mask was the recent part of Zelda back in Melee, meaning Sheik wasn't even a case of recentness but of Sakurai's own choice. Either way, Zelda didn't choose its characters based on recency. It was a matter of who would bring a unique mechanic to the roster (Zelda/Sheik) and who would be easy to implement last minute (Ganondorf/Young Link). Either way, the topic at hand is Mario. Dr. Mario wasn't recent, and the other remaining veterans have been around since Super Mario Bros. 1, so there is nothing to show that recency applies at all to the Mario series. Recency never seems to impact any series, actually, beyond Fire Emblem and Pokemon. All of that said, recency means nothing to the Mario series outside of non-playable factors like stages and items. Period.

And your view of the Mario series cast is very delusional if you think having a backstory means anything for choosing Mario characters. Importance and backstory are not the same thing... At all...

we should go back to talking about retros now..

That sounds like a great idea.

I have nothing to contribute that I haven't already said, however.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

And your view of the Mario series cast is very delusional if you think having a backstory means anything for choosing Mario characters. Importance and backstory are not the same thing... At all...

Delusional? I'm not saying backstory mean anything to Sakurai for choosing characters. It means something to the people who support her. And public support does influence Sakurai (again, not too much). Sonic, Mega Man and Lucario where public favorites. And besides the lack of backstory for other Mario characters makes her stand out. Even if said backstory is overly (for want of a better word) gooey.

Delusional seems to be the go-to word on these boards for "opinion I don't care for".

TL;DR Maybe not but don't be a jerk about it. And sorry if I am one without knowing it.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

Delusional? I'm not saying backstory mean anything to Sakurai for choosing characters. It means something to the people who support her. And public support does influence Sakurai (again, not too much). Sonic, Mega Man and Lucario where public favorites. And besides the lack of backstory for other Mario characters makes her stand out. Even if said backstory is overly (for want of a better word) gooey.

Delusional seems to be the go-to word on these boards for "opinion I don't care for".

TL;DR Maybe not but don't be a jerk about it. And sorry if I am one without knowing it.

I never meant to place any hostility in my words. I'm sorry if I came off like that. I thought you were literally saying that having a backstory is a reason for Sakurai to choose Rosalina, which is very much nonsensical and, yes, delusional.

The flaw with that logic, however, is that you're saying she'd be chosen based on being extremely requested like the aforementioned examples you used. She isn't, though. At the very least not compared to Waluigi, Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario, who are all frequently requested and currently fighting over a spot as Mario's 5th character that may not even exist. If fan support is her main benefactor, then she's not getting in before Toad or Bowser Jr. who are more important to the franchise as a whole and more requested by the fans.

My own point is that there's nothing concrete worth adding Rosalina and we all acknowledged that a while ago when she was removed. She isn't vastly supported, vastly important, or vastly recurrent, and she has to compete with a great amount of competition. There's no reason to re-add her at this point.

 

[Deleted member]

Discussion regarding Rosalina and the Mario chart in general has been over since last Tuesday.
Being officially revealed for 3D World today doesn't change that.

Anyways, I have decided on which ones to remove;
Famicom Detective Club
SimCity
Wave Race
Gumshoe
Glory of Heracles
Yuyuki
Battle Clash
Marvelous
Sutte Hakkun

And to add:
Pilotwings
Wild Gunman