Smash 4 Speculation Chart [WE UPDATE NOW]

[AEMehr]

Okay, I worded that a bit wrong. I can understand why it looks like Balloon Fighter won't be playable (given the evidence), but why is Balloon Fighter blanked when other characters who have been allegedly 'disproven' (most popularly, Toon Link) aren't blanked?

That's to say nothing of course about some of the straight-up unusual character choices in the OP (Ludwig Von Koopa? Rayquaza? Little Birdie?) but that's a discussion for another day.

Toon Link is still a very possible character choice because it isn't the one from Wind Waker.

Balloon Fighter was removed because the technique Villager uses when flying in the balloons is the thing that makes Balloon Fighter, Balloon Fighter.

 

[CalumG]

Toon Link is still a very possible character choice because it isn't the one from Wind Waker.

I think that's splitting hairs really, because Sakurai hasn't exactly been entirely consistent on which Link is which (same with Zelda). Adult Link in Melee has a boomerang, Child Link has a bow/arrow, Zelda in Brawl (who is allegedly TP Zelda) can transform into Sheik despite being obviously unable to and Link in Smash 4 very much resembles TP Link but with a SS Link colour scheme. Now I'm not saying that's evidence either for or against Toon Link's inclusion, but the fact that they're canonically two different Link's doesn't really change much because Sakurai himself doesn't even tend to make the distinction between different incarnations at times.

Balloon Fighter was removed because the technique Villager uses when flying in the balloons is the thing that makes Balloon Fighter, Balloon Fighter.

Excitebiker's thing is a bike. When Wario gets reconfirmed can we count Excitebiker out too? Plus, it's not like characters haven't shared moves before. *COUGH*Toon Link*COUGH* That's to say nothing of course about the possibility of semi-clones, because even though Sakurai says he wants each character to be 'unique', the historical evidence says otherwise.

I'm not a Balloon Fighter supporter either way so I'm not fussed, but I feel like it's far too early days to be ruling out any character for inclusion just yet.

 

[AEMehr]

I think that's splitting hairs really, because Sakurai hasn't exactly been entirely consistent on which Link is which (same with Zelda). Adult Link in Melee has a boomerang, Child Link has a bow/arrow, Zelda in Brawl (who is allegedly TP Zelda) can transform into Sheik despite being obviously unable to and Link in Smash 4 very much resembles TP Link but with a SS Link colour scheme. Now I'm not saying that's evidence either for or against Toon Link's inclusion, but the fact that they're canonically two different Link's doesn't really change much because Sakurai himself doesn't even tend to make the distinction between different incarnations at times.

First of all, nothing in the game is considered cannon so Zelda turning into Sheik, Link having a Boomerang, Young Link having a Bow and anything non-cannon shouldn't matter in the slightest.
Second of all, if a second Link is to stay in the game (which history shows it's a great possibility) the Link with the best chance to return is Toon Link due to his overwhelming Japanese popularity and his unique body type in comparison to any other design of Link. So it would be better to have a uniquely shaped second Link rather than one with a similar body type, right?

Excitebiker's thing is a bike. When Wario gets reconfirmed can we count Excitebiker out too? Plus, it's not like characters haven't shared moves before.*COUGH*Toon Link*COUGH* That's to say nothing of course about the possibility of semi-clones, because even though Sakurai says he wants each character to be 'unique', the historical evidence says otherwise.

I'm not a Balloon Fighter supporter either way so I'm not fussed, but I feel like it's far too early days to be ruling out any character for inclusion just yet.

The tactic of driving a motorcycle isn't unique to Wario or Excitebiker. If Wario ends up using his bike the whole time and did many things that Excitebiker would have probably done then yeah, sure, we would probably confirm Excitebiker to be disconfirmed.
The issue for Balloon Fighter is that the technique and use of Balloons are specific to Balloon Fighter and the Villager has taken that and is putting it to use. If he used Balloons differently and not like Balloon Fighter would be doing, I'm certain nobody would have considered removing him from the speculation chart. But his technique has been taken and put into use by the Villager, it's very unlikely that we could see him if the Villager is using what makes Balloon Fighter special.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

First of all, nothing in the game is considered cannon so Zelda turning into Sheik, Link having a Boomerang, Young Link having a Bow and anything non-cannon shouldn't matter in the slightest.
Second of all, if a second Link is to stay in the game (which history shows it's a great possibility) the Link with the best chance to return is Toon Link due to his overwhelming Japanese popularity and his unique body type in comparison to any other design of Link. So it would be better to have a uniquely shaped second Link rather than one with a similar body type, right?



The tactic of driving a motorcycle isn't unique to Wario or Excitebiker. If Wario ends up using his bike the whole time and did many things that Excitebiker would have probably done then yeah, sure, we would probably confirm Excitebiker to be disconfirmed.
The issue for Balloon Fighter is that the technique and use of Balloons are specific to Balloon Fighter and the Villager has taken that and is putting it to use. If he used Balloons differently and not like Balloon Fighter would be doing, I'm certain nobody would have considered removing him from the speculation chart. But his technique has been taken and put into use by the Villager, it's very unlikely that we could see him if the Villager is using what makes Balloon Fighter special.

This. It's not like it's completely different from Balloon Fighter. Villager is straight up using the helmet and Balloons. Both Links were basically meant to be similar in moveset, and Wario's bike and Excitebiker would be different based on the fact that Wario isn't using Excitebikers bike, he is using his own bike. That's the difference.

 

[CalumG]

First of all, nothing in the game is considered cannon so Zelda turning into Sheik, Link having a Boomerang, Young Link having a Bow and anything non-cannon shouldn't matter in the slightest.
Second of all, if a second Link is to stay in the game (which history shows it's a great possibility) the Link with the best chance to return is Toon Link due to his overwhelming Japanese popularity and his unique body type in comparison to any other design of Link. So it would be better to have a uniquely shaped second Link rather than one with a similar body type, right?



The tactic of driving a motorcycle isn't unique to Wario or Excitebiker. If Wario ends up using his bike the whole time and did many things that Excitebiker would have probably done then yeah, sure, we would probably confirm Excitebiker to be disconfirmed.
The issue for Balloon Fighter is that the technique and use of Balloons are specific to Balloon Fighter and the Villager has taken that and is putting it to use. If he used Balloons differently and not like Balloon Fighter would be doing, I'm certain nobody would have considered removing him from the speculation chart. But his technique has been taken and put into use by the Villager, it's very unlikely that we could see him if the Villager is using what makes Balloon Fighter special.

But that's the key phrase here. Very unlikely. Not disconfirmed. Very unlikely. If a character gets blanked for being very unlikely, then Ludwig Von Koopa and Rayquaza should have been blanked out from the very second they were put on the chart, because Balloon Fighter is still probably more likely than those two (even if that likelyhood is damn-near close to zero). The issue here isn't really Balloon Fighter at all - it's that the criteria for being on the chart and/or being de-confirmed on the chart seems to be made up on a whim rather than having anything resembling consistency.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Were not even sure yet, the Villager's recovery could change just to fool us.

 

[CalumG]

Were not even sure yet, the Villager's recovery could change just to fool us.

I'd say that's highly unlikely - veteran moves are subject to change, such as Mario's FLUDD (or the way Kirby's side B changed mid-development with Brawl), but I doubt they'd make a brand-new move for a brand-new character and show it off so blatantly in a trailer only to get changed further down the line.

 

[ErictheLone]

It could be a red herring, and Balloon Fighter is actually playable. Unlikely, yes but Sakurai is tricky guy.

 

[NickerBocker]

Sakurai is so tricky he may have briefly shown the balloon fighter as a character in the trailer and everyone thought it was the villager!

But in all seriousness, the fact that the villager has adopted the balloons and the slingshot (was that in balloon fighter?) and the fact that sakurai is trying for uniqueness, why would he give the villager the balloons when it is clearly a balloon fighter attribute if he had the balloon fighter planned as a character?

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but with sakurai it never really does

 

[fogbadge]

Sakurai is so tricky he may have briefly shown the balloon fighter as a character in the trailer and everyone thought it was the villager!

But in all seriousness, the fact that the villager has adopted the balloons and the slingshot (was that in balloon fighter?) and the fact that sakurai is trying for uniqueness, why would he give the villager the balloons when it is clearly a balloon fighter attribute if he had the balloon fighter planned as a character?

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but with sakurai it never really does

the sligshot is from animal crossing

 

[NickerBocker]

the sligshot is from animal crossing

Okay I was mistaken

 

[Motor Bug2005]

Is it safe to assume that the latest pic on the Smash website and Sakurai's comment about said pic disconfirms Viridi?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

What was his comment on it?

 

[Deleted member]

That she was about to kill all the humans that are fighting in the background, or something.

My guess is, her Reset Bombs are stage hazards.


EDIT: Direct quote.
"Pic of the day.
Viridi, Goddess of Nature, is about to obliterate the humans as they battle, driven by greed."

 

[TheCreator]

Sakurai is so tricky he may have briefly shown the balloon fighter as a character in the trailer and everyone thought it was the villager!

But in all seriousness, the fact that the villager has adopted the balloons and the slingshot (was that in balloon fighter?) and the fact that sakurai is trying for uniqueness, why would he give the villager the balloons when it is clearly a balloon fighter attribute if he had the balloon fighter planned as a character?

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but with sakurai it never really does

This could be said for Toon Link. Why put him on a stage if he is planned? But I could argue forever about how ST link is Toon Link, so I'm not gonna even start.

 

[Deleted member]

You don't need to;

In Smash, Link = Young Link = Toon Link = stage cameo Link. They are all different appearances of one universal Link by Smash canon.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Wind Waker HD is coming out this year, I'll be a bit surprised if he doesn't get into Smash 4.

If Luigi-fication is really that needed for him, I'm fine with it. Anything to get Toon Link in Smash 4.

 

[TheCreator]

If there's a different version of the same character in smash ever, they're going to be a clone. Sakurai makes it a rule of his. He made Link and Toon link the same on purpose, check Toon Link's brawl page.
Edit: except for MAYBE Paper Mario. Don't know how he'd see that.

 

[fogbadge]

here's a thought isn't a floating head with hands, in a sense a feasible fighter, so maybe a shrunken andross or dr kawashima could in theory work in smash

not that i support either of them or think they might get in it's just a thought

 

[CalumG]

here's a thought isn't a floating head with hands, in a sense a feasible fighter, so maybe a shrunken andross or dr kawashima could in theory work in smash

not that i support either of them or think they might get in it's just a thought

Andross could get in, although his chances are slimmer than my chances of winning the lottery whilst getting struck by lightning.

Kawashima on the other hand is straight-up impossible. Smash Bros. characters have to originate from video games - Dr. Kawashima is a polygon version of a real person.

 

[fogbadge]

Kawashima on the other hand is straight-up impossible. Smash Bros. characters have to originate from video games - Dr. Kawashima is a polygon version of a real person.

i thought he might be i wasn't sure

 

[NickerBocker]

This could be said for Toon Link. Why put him on a stage if he is planned? But I could argue forever about how ST link is Toon Link, so I'm not gonna even start.

Toon Link is another situation. Honestly, he hasnt really crossed my mind yet. Havent had time to think about him. But I will say that the spirit tracks Link being "toonish" doesnt deconfirm him, although it does raise questions.

IMO, toon link will be in, although I hope they change some moves and luigify him. Is that him on the train? Could be, but id also rather not discuss.

Its beating a dead horse on a broken record that never ends, and it goes on and on, my friends

 

[NickerBocker]

Double post

 

[HylianHeroBigBoss]

No President?

 

[Deleted member]

It's that time again! (Prepare yourself, AEM )

Since nothing's really been done on the charts, and there's characters people feel should be included or cut, we're going to play a little game to help pass the time.
I however, reserve the right to disallow suggestions for certain character cuts.


So we're going to start with the Mario series.
Is it fine as it is? Should some characters be shaved off? How about any possible additions?

 

[CalumG]

Straight off the bat, Ludwig. Although there are occasions where he's been made out to be the strongest and the eldest of the Koopa Kids (all fair things to say about the little guy), I'd say his inclusion is not dissimilar to including, say, a singular Pokemon starter. The Koopa Kids, without exception, have historically come as a group or not at all, and I think we all know having the Koopa Kids as a set of seven playables would be a complete dribbling mess.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Straight off the bat, Ludwig. Although there are occasions where he's been made out to be the strongest and the eldest of the Koopa Kids (all fair things to say about the little guy), I'd say his inclusion is not dissimilar to including, say, a singular Pokemon starter. The Koopa Kids, without exception, have historically come as a group or not at all, and I think we all know having the Koopa Kids as a set of seven playables would be a complete dribbling mess.

I like the idea of Ludwig as he's my favorite of the seven Koopalings.

I'd be fine with either Junior and/or Toad being in and the other as DLC/Smash 5. With those two, they are part of the Main Six of the Mario series.

 

[FalKoopa]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before, but if Balloon Fighter stands disconfirmed, does it also not disconfirm Alice, the Balloon Kid?

 

[CalumG]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before, but if Balloon Fighter stands disconfirmed, does it also not disconfirm Alice, the Balloon Kid?

The difference between them, I guess, is that balloons alone are not a unique character trait - plenty of characters in the past have held or used balloons from all kinds of Nintendo franchises. Villager however inherits not only Balloon Fighters balloons, but also his signature helmet and arm-flapping motions, which are pretty much his three defining character features.

Not that I believe Alice has a shot in hell either way, but I'm assuming that's Golden's reasoning for disconfirming one and not the other.

 

[TheCreator]

I'd just take out the whole 3rd row, to be blunt lol

 

[Deleted member]

"My" reasoning?
AEM typically does confirmation updates on the fly when they happen, not because I tell him to while giving him specifics on disconfirmations.
So Balloon Fighter being darkened out and not Alice? Not because I demanded it to be that way.
One of the updates to the charts once I gather up the suggestions for specifics on how they will be modified will be the darkening of Alice as well as Nook, Resetti, and Viridi, after she has been confirmed to be a part of the Uprising stage.

Chart has been fixed up on front page.

Also, I'd stand to reason that Alice is also kind of disconfirmed for the same reason as Balloon Fighter.
And that Nook and Resetti are disconfirmed as well. It has always been either of them or Villager, and Villager is in.

 

[CalumG]

Ah, consider that my mistake. I don't pay much attention to this thread, I assumed you were the one to do the updatin'.

 

[FalKoopa]

Another mistake in the OP.

The first line says "Click tags to see the charts."

 

[Deleted member]

Too tired now after making walls of text in the main roster thread.
I'll do it tomorrow if I don't forget.

 

[AEMehr]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before, but if Balloon Fighter stands disconfirmed, does it also not disconfirm Alice, the Balloon Kid?

Because I'm a derp and I forgot Alice was a Balloon Fighter too.
So yeah here have an updated list with her crossed off too.

Also Sepia returns (I figured out a way to keep them)

So because I'm late, have another updated Speculation list thingymabobber.

 

[Deleted member]

Alright, fist post updated.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Alright, fist post updated.

 

[Deleted member]

Damn typo.

Eh, I'm not even going to bother fixing it.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So has Viridi officially been disconfirmed? I'm not doubting you guys, but i'm just legitimately wondering if there's anything besides Sakurai's post and the picture of the stage.

 

[FalKoopa]

Does Viridi actually appear on the stage?