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Smash 4 Speculation Chart [WE UPDATE NOW]

Guybrush20X6

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Ok then. If you suggest a character back them up with a Nintendo exclusive.

For Mega Man, the first 7 Megaman games, the first 2 X games and all of the GB sub-series and all 4 Mega Man Zero games. Along with a butt-ton of spin-offs.

Travis Touchdown had No More Heroes. The sequel was released for PS3 eventually but the first is still exclusive.

Rayman's exclusivity is a bit murky (thank you Ubisoft execs) but the Rabbids series and hand-held spin-offs are still there.
 

Curious Villager

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Should I mention Professor Layton? Even if he's already on the chart? He has Sakurai's awareness and Hino's interest and the only games that aren't on Nintendo consoles are the spin-off's (besides London Life) and the main games are Nintendo exclusives.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Hmm, I'd say Meat Boy is on the borderline pile as he hasn't had an exclusive Nintendo release and I have concerns about his Gimmick (leaving a blood trail everywhere.)

What 3rd parties have we pretty much decided on GY?
 

N3ON

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I'd say common sense should be able to veto characters like Meat Boy.

I mean, going by the criteria Pac-Man wouldn't get in. AFAIK there's been no statement - ever - about his potential inclusion in Smash.
 
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Namco's kind of the exception to this, with Pac-Man being Namco's mascot and all. The only unspoken Namco character that exception can be made to be honest.
 

N3ON

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Ok, and it makes sense to include Pac-Man on the chart obviously, but if exceptions can be made one way, they should be able to be made the other way too if it makes sense. And keeping Meat Boy off the chart makes sense. ;)
 

Guybrush20X6

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I also should mention before someone else does., Sega's partnership with Nintendo doesn't greatly increase Bayonetta's chances. She is still too shaky on too many of Sakurai's criteria. Don't get me wrong I'd love her to be in but I'm trying to be realistic.
 
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Sakurai's criteria is just "must have originated in a video game" and "must have appeared on a Nintendo system". By his criteria, Bayonetta is perfectly eligible.
Sega's and Nintendo's partnership however is specifically in regards to the Sonic franchise, so I would agree that it doesn't help Bayonetta, but more or less helps Sonic and pals.

That being said, Bayonetta shouldn't be completely discredited yet.
 
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Alright, to speed things up, I've got 3rd Parties covered for now.

Now, these following two categories are optional: Smash Original characters and Non-Video Game Origin characters.

Should they be done, or no?
 

Vintage Creep

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I'm absolutely against characters not originated from a videogame.

For original characters, I'm not against it, but I don't want to see more than one of them.
 

Guybrush20X6

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For original characters I'd say Sandbag but I'd say hell naw to non-video game characters. Getting sick of people taking about Goku.
 
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Alright, in that case, I guess we're done.
Just need to upload the new images when they come.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Ok then. Do you think you should list out all the characters in text first to let us all double check?
 

God Robert's Cousin

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My apologies if this has already been discussed, as looking through 40 pages would be very, very time consuming, but has Andy from Advance Wars been considered yet?

He is one of the most recognizable faces of the entire Nintendo Wars series, has played pivotal roles in Advance Wars I and II, and had appeared in Advance Wars: Dual Strike. Additionally, Nintendo Wars is a series that has earned veteran status within Nintendo, dating all the way back to 1988 and spanding over 12 games, much like the Intelligence System's other series, Fire Emblem. Additionally, his status as both a commanding officer and a mechanic would provide the niche indirect attacks all around, forming a playstyle much different from any other character's.
 
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To clarify what I mean so that you are not assuming the wrong thing, the Consideration Lists were made for me to look over potential additions to the chart.
Not everyone that had been discussed will be on it, and there will be some not discussed that will be added to it either because they hadn't been mentioned but still can work, or to even out spacing.
 

cvmerchanary

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How come Phoenix Wright isn't on this chart!? I would say he has a better chance then a few of these retro characters that I've never heard of before
 

AEMehr

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HEY GUYS I GOT SOME OF THESE DONE YEEEEAAAAAH.
Super Mario Brothers

Donkey Kong

The Legend of Zelda

Metroid

Yoshi's Island

Kirby's Dreamland

Star Fox



So that's all I have for now, so enjoy these.
 

Scoliosis Jones

Kept you waiting, huh?
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Just found out from IGN, that the new Mario, Mario Kart, and SMASH BROS. will be revealed in a Nintendo Direct before E3.

YES
 

God Robert's Cousin

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HEY GUYS I GOT SOME OF THESE DONE YEEEEAAAAAH.
Super Mario Brothers

So that's all I have for now, so enjoy these.
I'll start the handpicking off with the Mario cast, I guess.

Dr. Mario - A serious clone in Melee and essentially the exact same character as Mario. No to being a character, but I'd really love to see him as an alternate outfit.
Petey - Petey isn't as well known like the other Mario characters. The people that do know him know that he's nearly always a boss in every instance you find him (save a few sports games). He'd be a much better returning boss.
Waluigi - As much as I love Waluigi, being a playable character seems to be giving him more credit than he deserves. He hasn't been the star of a single game, nor has he even appeared in a single main-series Mario game, or at the very least, a Wario game.
Toad - A part of Peach's moveset in addition to the fact that no Toads in specific have played an integral role in a Mario game makes the idea of his addition seem shoddy at best. Nothing unique exists for toads that other Mario characters don't already do.
Bowser Jr. - Possibly, considering he's had a lot of support. I don't want to see him myself, but considering how often he's appeared, I wouldn't be all too surprised.
Nabbit - A side character that only exists in 1 and a half Mario games... No thanks.
Ludwig - To pick one of the Koopalings over the others seems like an odd choice, especially considering Bowser Jr. already exists as Bowser's most recurrent child.
Daisy - Alternate color for Peach already with good reason that she wouldn't have anything especially unique without having to hammerspace sports equipment galore. In addition, she has the same problems as Waluigi in not being involved in any main Mario titles.
Rosalina - Take Daisy's argument, replace not being in a main Mario game with being in only two Mario games and several spin offs.
Dry Bowser - Could just as easily be an alternate costume for Bowser. Otherwise provides nothing special regular Bowser doesn't already provide.
Birdo - I guess (s)he would work...? I just fail to see why she would be selected over other less questionable characters.
King Boo - See above.
E. Gadd - Edwin has pretty much played a passive role in every single game he's appeared in. Even without making up a bunch of gadgets for him to use as a moveset, it'd be out of his character to make him able to take on characters like Captain Falcon and Bowser. The whole reason Luigi became involved in Luigi's Mansion 1 and 2 is due to him being past his prime in catching ghosts.
Paper Mario - I could definitely see that, as all four Paper Mario games have been decently to critically acclaimed, and a paper-based playstyle would certainly be unique. His addition would still be rather darkhorse compared to characters like Bowser Jr. or Geno, but it's certainly possible.
Fawful - As interesting as he'd be, he still seems like an obscure choice when compared to the other Mario characters. It would help if he had appeared in more games aside from the Mario & Luigi RPGs.
Geno - Geno is definitely an interesting choice. Despite being a Mario character, Geno would still function as a 3rd Party character. He's certainly well requested, and he's caught Sakurai's attention... It really is up in the air as to whether he'd be selected or not, but Geno is certainly possible.

That being said, it mainly seems like the Mario series can be narrowed down to Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Geno. The rest of the characters are either just not important enough to justify bulking the Mario series into 5+ characters, incapable of fighting in a setting like Smash Bros., or are plain too obscure to be among the ranks of other famous characters.

If you want to leave the chart like that for fun rather than realism, then by all means, feel free to just erase all of what I just said out of your mind. :)
 

God Robert's Cousin

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Waluigi and Toad are more obscure than Geno?
No sir, I said that the former hasn't been in a single main-series Mario game (lacking importance to the series) while the latter has no truly unique qualities worth making him playable.
 

Ben Holt

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No sir, I said that the former hasn't been in a single main-series Mario game (lacking importance to the series) while the latter has no truly unique qualities worth making him playable.
And Geno's important to the series?
 

Swamp Sensei

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Geno has no chance whatsoever.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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And Geno's important to the series?
Geno is definitely an interesting choice. Despite being a Mario character, Geno would still function as a 3rd Party character. He's certainly well requested, and he's caught Sakurai's attention... It really is up in the air as to whether he'd be selected or not, but Geno is certainly possible.
I never said he was important. All Geno really has going for him is that he is highly requested. The thing separating him from other Mario characters is that unlike Waluigi, Geno is one of the most heavily requested characters of all time for Smash Bros. Here is an excerpt from the Geno thread:

McFox said:
This is probably the best argument for Geno on the more political side of things. Next to Sonic, Geno is the most requested 3rd party character on the poll (and he’s not even purely 3rd party, more on that later). Without this, Geno’s fans would be getting shot down left and right because people would claim he doesn’t have a strong standing on the poll, and since many people don’t know him, he wouldn’t stand a chance. But because he tied with such contenders as Ike and Diddy Kong (who are confirmed), this is a strong case.
The polled referred to is none other than the official poll Sakurai was running during the time of Brawl Dojo's updates. To be up there with Sonic is saying something for sure. I'm not saying I personally think he's a realistic choice, but I am saying that the fact that there is so much support should be taken into account when dismissing him.
 
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"Nitpicks" on the chart are not acceptable.
Especially when it comes to nitpicking realism, as EVERYONE has a different take on what's realistic. (And quite frankly, Geno being seen as more likely than Toad or even Waluigi is far from realistic no matter how you try to justify it.)

This charts are just for all reasonable options and for fun.

EDIT: Aside from that, anyone who claims Geno was high on "the poll" is full of it.
Not in the sense that Geno wasn't high on a poll Sakurai made, as we don't actually know how he did, but rather because WE HAVE NO INFORMATION ABOUT ANY POLL. Other than Sonic being the most requested, that much we can confirm through his DOJO!! page. And that Saki Amamiya had a lot of requests; something also mentioned on the DOJO!! pages.

What people like to blindly list as a "poll" where Geno had 4 "votes" while the highest "voted" character was Dedede with 5 was not a poll at all. It was a list of characters mentioned in e-mails Sakurai had received up until a certain point and how many times they were mentioned.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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I didn't take that into account. Sorry. I'm just much more used to other forums where such pessimism isn't as frowned upon. I'll do the best I can to adjust quickly.

I wasn't trying to preach for Geno either, so you understand. My own nitpicking was meant to be my own speculation on this. Beyond that, no personal agenda for or against Geno, Waluigi, Toad, and the like.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Well a lot of these choices are "wait, what the hell" but it's better cover all potential bases. Good job AEM.
 
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So, what was the veredict on Bayonetta for this chart?

Now while the partnership mostly focuses on Sonic, it is still a general worldwide partnership considering the Game Gear titles on the 3DS VC.

Now while this does not directly affect her chances, it means their relationship is much close, and to that, add the confusing rights to the IP and who knows... Maybe she'll get in.
 

XalchemistX

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I think there will be a interactive Nintendo Land stage, Pac-man, Bayonetta, Tekken characters, and LLoyd

I highly predict that there will be a few Namco Bandai characters, but I remember reading an interview article from Sakurai that he doesn't want to focus too much on 3rd party character because it will draw attention away from the main focus of the game.

As for gameplay, Sakurai was the only one that balanced the characters in Brawl instead of his team which he did in melee. I think SSB4 will have a more competitive feel than Brawl not only because a team is working on the balancing of characters, but to the fact that Reggie keeps mentioning that the Wii U will be targeting hardcore gamers.

One of the first things Sakurai mentioned about SSB4 was the cross-play and connectivity between the the Wii U and 3DS. There might be exclusive characters for Wii U and 3DS and the ability to get some kind of reward, like coins for minigames from connecting the 3DS to the Wii U.

Just had to throw in some of my thoughts, hope this helps with your chart
 
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