8/23/2013
This roster is my final roster, at least until the TGS 2013(I guess we will have another reveal of a character there)
Some changes to my roster, I've kicked Dark Shadow(as I feel for now F-Zero will not get a second representant) and Ridley(as Ridley seems to be part of a stage) and I've added Ike and Lucario. I think 3 representants for a series like Fire Emblem isn't that unlikely as Fire Emblem: Awakening is a huge success worldwide. I decided to add Lucario because with the new mega evolutions, Lucario is as probable to return as Mewtwo.
To create a likely roster, you have to analyse a bit the evolution of the roster since SSB64.
In SSB64, we had 12 characters and except for Mario and Luigi as well as Pikachu and Jigglypuff every character was a representant for a series. So in SSB64, we had 10 series.
In SSBM, we had 26 characters. Beside the 10 series from SSB64, we have got 3 other series:
Ice Climbers, Fire Emblem, Game&Watch.
In SSBB, we had 39 characters. Beside the 13 series from SSBM, there we 3/4 new series:
WarioWare/Warioland, Pikmin, Kid Icarus, (R.O.B.)
I could imagine, as Sakurai said they won't add too many characters, that they will go up to 45 characters.
So it we will see at least 3-4 new series I guess. What I've also noticed is the fact that no franchise ever had more than 4 characters and I feel like 4 characters is enough to represent a franchise. More than 4 characters could be too many characters for one franchise.
Mario franchise has already reached this limit as well as Pokémon. For Mario, I would keep the same 4 characters.
In the case of
Pokémon where changes aren't that unusual, I've cut the Pokémon trainer and chose the two Pokémon Lucario and Mewtwo as they are known in the newest Pokemon games X and Y to have a mega evolution, a form that is first introduced in Gen6. So both would perfectly represent the newest Pokemon generation.
Fire Emblem will get a new character from Fire Emblem: Awakening for sure. Maybe Ike will stay because of his popularity, Marth will stay for sure as he is THE Fire Emblem lord of the whole series. For the new Fire Emblem entry I would pick Chrom or Lucina. I'm pretty sure one of both will get in.
As the
Mother/Earthbound series has now found the way to Europe and America, I could imagine that they add another character from the series. Beside Porky, the Masked Man from Mother 3 is the most significant character in my opinion and would offer a few options to create an interesting moveset.
I don't think that
Yoshis franchise will get another representant. The same goes for the whol
Wario series as I don't see any character that is really worth getting into SSB4.
F-Zero is a franchise we haven't heard much for a long time now, so I think it is really unlikely that we will see any new character from the series.
In the case of
Metroid, I could only imagine Ridley to enter the roster, but he seems to be part of a stage, so I can't imagine Sakurai will put Ridley in the game as a playable character. That's the reason I only put one Metroid representant.
I'll come now to
Starfox. I've noticed that Sakurai always added one Starfox character since SSB64. In Melee he added Falco, in Brawl Wolf joined Fox and Falco. So another Starfox representant is likely and in my opinion Krystal would be the best choice. She could have a very unique fighting style and would be so different to the existing characters from Starfox in Super Smash Bros.
Next, I'll talk about the
Donkey Kong series. With Donkey Kong Country Returns, the DKC series started a comeback. This year, the next DKC game from Retrostudios will be released and as we know already, Dixie will be playable. Isn't that a good reason to put her in the next Smash Bros game too?
Maybe we will also get a second newcomer for the DK series, but I wouldn't suggest that Sakurai will add another character from Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze. So the question is: Who could he add instead? Of course, he could add any character from DK64, but to be honest, the most significant villain from the DK series would be a much better choice. I'm talking about King K.Rool. He might not be in the two newest games of the DKC series, but Donkey Kong and King K.Rool are just like Mario and Bowser, so he needs to be in. I guess if King K.Rool won't be in the next DK game, he's getting more unlikely for the roster. So somehow I feel it's the last chance for him to get in.
Let's move to the next series, the
Kirby franchise. In Brawl Sakurai added two new characters from the series, so I feel like Kirby doesn't need another representant for SSB4.
Maybe the
Kid Icarus series will get more fighters in as Kid Icarus: Uprising brings the series back to life. I could imagine two representants, first of all Medusa as Pit knows her as a villain very well. Another possible character would be Hades as he is (spoiler!) the villain from Kid Icarus: Uprising.
I'll come back now to an old series that is represented in Smash Bros since the game for Nintendo64:
The Legend of Zelda. In Melee, Sakurai added 3 new characters. In Brawl, he cut one and put another one in instead. I would be fine with just 3 representants you can see on my roster pic above. Still I could imagine that Sakurai may put in a new character, but I really can't predict anything. It would be a bit normal if he would add just another Link like he did in Melee with Young Link or in Brawl with Toon Link, but somehow, I think this time it will be different. Instead of predicting something weird, I won't predict any character for the Legend of Zelda franchise.
Now, I'm moving to the new series that could be in Super Smash Bros 4.
Animal Crossing and
Wii Fit are already confirmed. I don't like the idea that Sakurai may add the Miis. I prefer franchises like
Punch Out! or
Dillon's Rolling Western as they bring something new. Little Mac would bring something to the Smash Bros games by being a boxer. All the other characters aren't boxers and so a boxer would be something new. It would be a bit like Snake in Brawl.
Dillon, an armadillo with cowboy appearance, would bring something new too. I would really like to see how he is fighting against other Smash Bros characters. He isn't that unlikely as he has got two games, the first released in 2012, the second released in 2013, and beside that he has already got an own Mii Plaza puzzle. So Nintendo seems to push him. Another opportunity to push Dillon would be to add him to the Smash Bros roster where he would just fit perfect. I'm crossing fingers and I really hope Sakurai will add him. He isn't the character most people expect, but still he isn't that unlikely neither.
4/9/2014
Sorry Ridley supporters, after the Direct I feel like Ridley won't be in. Of course Ridley could still be in and Sakurai could just play with our expectations. I really wanted to support Ridley but given the pieces of information from the Direct, Ridley will probably be a stage Boss instead of a playable character.
Also I think the Kirby series will stay at 3 playable characters just as before. On the other side I'm not even sure anymore if we were to see two Kid Icarus reps. Given the franchises promoted by the E3 trailer, only Kid Icarus still has one sole rep. Chances are given there may be a 2nd rep, especially as Pit has a new final smash and (!) Sakurai was trolling by showing us a fake Palutena trophy. However I'm not sure anymore about a second rep for the Kid Icarus series and therefore I kicked Medusa out.
I also feel like F-Zero will stay at one rep while the Mother series MAY keep the 2 reps from Brawl. (almost not sure about it)
Another point: While I'm hoping for Mewtwo, I feel like Jigglypuff being more realistic as Jigglypuff is a fairy-type Pokémon and as a SSB64 veteran who has been playable in almost every Smash game so far, I don't think Sakurai will cut her/him/whatever.
Mewtwo on the other side would just be a third Pokémon in the roster with a mega evolution. Mewtwo is still iconic without a doubt, but I see Jigglypuff being in before Mewtwo.
As for the Donkey Kong series: I don't expect 4 DK characters anymore, but given the Direct, I can't really say who will be in: Dixie or King K.Rool? I'll go with King K.Rool for my wish roster(especially because of the Kremlings in the Direct!!!11) but for the realistic one, I've just put both in.
I also feel like the Zelda series with 5 reps having 5 spots is fine. I don't think Sakurai will cut Ganondorf and I don't think the Zelda series will have 6 characters in the roster.
Starfox series is fine the way it was in Brawl and I don't think Sakurai will cut Falco or Wolf.
Next is the Fire Emblem series. I wouldn't expect 3 Fire Emblem reps anymore. Chrom will probably get in but I think that's it. No Ike, no Roy. Just my expectations.
As for new series: I think Takamaru because of Nintendo Land has pretty obvious good chances to get in as a retro character.
Shulk from Xenoblade and Dillon from Dillon's Rolling Western(and as eShop franchises rep) will get in.
Maybe, just maybe, Sakurai also knows already about Miyamoto's new IP which will probably be presented at E3 this year. If so, I wouldn't be surprised if he were to put the protagonist of that new IP already in the new Smash Bros game. It would be without a doubt good promotion for the new IP and get us hyped for both, Smash Bros and the new IP from Miyamoto. (of course Sakurai can't confirm the new Miyamoto IP protagonist as a playable character before the Miyamoto IP was officially revealed)
47 characters for the final roster seems at least to me as a possible number of playable characters.