UPDATE!!!! I updated my roster, scroll past this to see the new one.
OK, this requires some explaining.
The characters to the left, I believe are either shoe ins or have fairly high chances. I feel like characters from the original series are going to get some more reps this time around, and a few new series are going to get characters.
The characters to the right I either feel have fairly good chances or feel that their series is getting a rep and not sure which but just maybe that one, but don't care too much about the specific character (Rosalina, Midna, Shulk)
The other ones there are wish characters that I feel have very low chances if like one or even two get in I'll be ecstatic (shy guy, chaos, megaman, deoxys, sukapon, dark samus, funky kong, bomberman, skull kid)
Now for some stuff on the left.
Black Shadow - Yeah, I'm no tooo sure about this one. I do feel like C Falcon should get another Rep, being an original 64 character. And I don't like Gorah or Blood Falcon too much. So I chose this guy. Not a pure roster pick for me, but he fills a quota.
Ridley - 100% chance this time around. 3 games and only 1 Metroid rep? This ain't happenin' a fourth time. Dark Samus would be cool too but I don't think metroid's pulling a kirby and getting a double addition although if it did i think it would take this route.
King K. Rool - I do believe the DK series will get another rep, and this guy just seems to fit. I personally prefer Funky Kong, but I think Sakurai will go for variety.
RAY, Villager, Isaac, Mii - I think Sakurai is going to try to represent some more series this time around, and I think these guys are the way to go.
I loved Custom Robo, and a fighting mech seems perfect for smash
Animal Crossing is amazing, although this slot could go to tom nook, idk for sure.
Golden Sun was amazing, and Isaac has already been recognized as an AT. Could be a unique fun brawler. I mean, Charizard went from pokeball pokemon to playable :D
I feel that sakurai likes to add at least one oddball pure nintendo rep each game (G&W, ROB), to me the mii seemed a bit obvious, with it's continuation as a nintendo rep into it's newer generation of consoles.
Krystal - Starfox seems to have been getting a new rep per game, and she seems to be the next logical character to add in - female lead, fairly unique with the staff, dear god don't give her a landmaster sakurai, don't give her a landmaster
Masked Man - Idk if earthbound will get another rep, but I always liked the idea of this guy. This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but hey, this is a prediction thread.
I don't think there's going to be a new kirby rep this game, after the double dose last game.
PLEASE MAKE WARIO CLASSIC WARIO CHANGE HIS MOVES
I think there's actually a fair chance of a second sonic rep, a tossup between tails and shadow IMO. HOWEVER I LOVE CHAOS.
I think that LoZ could easily get a new rep this game, maybe looking at Midna, maybe a toon link villain, or I would personally love skull kid, but he seems unlikely.
I think the Mario series could also easily get another rep. Shy guy is my secret fav but I doubt his appearence. Rosalina seems interesting, also kind of the face of the new 3D mario games. I don't think waluigi or birdo will make it, either.
Aaannndd for the PKMN section I hope all of the previously appearing PKMN characters return, plus Mewtwo as well. He is the only cut from melee I don't support. (well, maybe roy). However, I don't think they'll resist adding a new pokemon as well, and honestly, Zoarark is a shoe in. He's the 5'th gen's face, I can't see him not getting in. I would love for Deoxys, or maybe another trainer to get in, but I doubt it.
I personally am afraid they'll cut or change the current PKMN trainer's pokemon and that would lose me Charizard D:
Who wouldn't want to see a charizard ridely battle?
I'm also unsure of Snake's return. I think it'd be awesome, but like link only in one soul calibur, maybe not.
And for the last few on the right. I think Sukapon is awesome, a cool retro choice, but he seems unlikely. Shulk seems interesting, but never having played his game, he hasn't caught my eye. he seems to have a chance, though. And some cool third party characters would be either megaman or bomberman. personally I don't think either will happen but I'd LOVE bomberman and megaman would be cool too.
I don't think another Kid Ic rep will get in. That was a retro series, which sakurai seems to be giving a one per policy to.
I'm also not turning down the possibility of other retro's, like balloon fighter, mach rider, and the rest. same with other series I haven't mentioned, or new reps from current series. Even some crazy namco stuff, like pacman xD. just IMO.
After spending a bunch of time on smashboards, I have re-evaluated my roster
This time it's in three sections, yes.
Many explanations are the same, however I will still speed through it.
The big block on the left is, as of right now, if there were some sort of betting game on closest to actual roster, what I would vote on. Yes, there is still some personal bias included.
The second slide of characters are ones that I think have legitimate chances to appear, but I didn't make room for them. The third set are just personal favorites that I understand have less than 1% chance of appearing but there they are.
The Mario and Zelda franchises - While I think it's fairly likely at least one of these will get a new character - if not both - I can't decide on who. It's really hard for zelda, there's not many characters that stick, I don't quite like that skyward sword villian. I put skull kid on the right due to his wavering popularity and Nintendo's recognition of a large fanbase for majora's mask. I think he has a better chance than most other zelda characters. maybe toon zelda/shiek like the forbidden 7... but.... meh.
As for the Mario franchise, the problem is the opposite, there are so many options. Rosalina and paper mario are just my favorite two.
DK - I think tihs is fairly straightforward, however I acknowledge dixie's high chances as well by placing her on the right. Funky Kong goes to the faaar right because he's awesome but overshadowed atm.
Kirby - I don't think we're getting more this time around. we have a good core atm.
Metroid - self explanatory. add ridley, dark samus is awesome, but unlikely as heck.
StarFox - I think Krystal has high chances, StarFox has been getting a character per game every game now.
F-Zero - Seeing as Falcon has been around since smash 64, I feel he deserves a friend. Goroh has been his most popular ally, even being an assist trophy in brawl. I personally don't like him that much, I'd prefer B shadow or something, but he is undeniably more likely.
FE - I think Roy has high chances, I don't think Ike will be cut, I have trouble deciding on another fire emblem lord outside of these. Maybe Krom will make it over Roy, I'm not saying he won't, but either way Ike will stay in.
Earthbound - Probably won't see a newcomer. MAYBE clause, very unlikely IMO
3rd party - I don't think these guys will be cut - sonic will still be popular, sakurai is still friends with snake's creator. Maybe another third party will get in - megaman is popular, and I like him a lot. Not betting on it, however. I would personally love Bomberman, although I think he's got no chances. Chaos is also one of my fav videogame characters, but if there even is a second sonic rep, it's gonna be tails.
PIKMIN - Olimar is all we need for now, I think
Kid Icarus - I don't see a second Kid Icarus rep, even if sakurai loves the series. Classic characters only deserve one rep IMO
PKMN - Ok ,while I think Zoarak has high chances, I don't think Lucario will be cut. I also think Sakurai will try to include Mewtwo. This is one of my rosters weakpoints IMO, I don't think all three will get in, but I'm a fanboy and I have no idea which to cut.
MII - I think this is going to be both a shamless Nintendo plug as well as an interesting brawler - maybe somewhat customizable - who knows
Shulk - I dislike the idea of a lot of new sword weilders - saki/takamaru/Shulk/whatever, I don't think sakurai is going to add more than one of them. Shulk is my personal fav, but I do acknowledge it could be any of them.
RETRO - I doubt ROB, G&W, ICE CLIMBERS, PIT will be cut. If he adds one new retro, I personally hope it's sukapon, sukapon is awesome. but I doube sukapon has chances, so my money's on mach rider. Imagine a brawler always on his bike. yeah. awesome.
Golden Sun - I think Isaac deserves an in. As Oasis_S put it 'basically a ground type pokemon'
RAY 01 - Yeah, probably my most controversial addition. Sure, he may not have had a game at all recently, sure his popularity may be down a bit. But I think that sakurai will prioritize adding new franchises to secondary characters to something like, say, kid icarus. Ray 01 is one of the newer nintendo franchises - too late for melee, acknowledged in brawl, large potential for a cool moveset. I stand by him, although I admit he has low chances. If you don't make any odd guesses, your roster is wrong, because sakurai always includes something no one sees coming.
On that last point, I don't think my roster is 100% right. I think one or two of those won't get in, I think there will be someone or two who no one saw coming on the roster, I think someone who I wrote off on this very post may get in (no one specific, just in general) because that is what smash is all about.
Thanks for reading my stupidly large wall of text.
So I'm updating one more time. Last update was pre E3, so this is fitting, another update a year later.
Looking at my old predictions, I had a lot right. Got both Rosalina and Megaman (my old prediction was pre 2013 E3)
Basically, I've updated it, and changed around my predictions, but left some slots open. I think all of the characters I have pictured in the bottom box of 8 (excluding the ducks) have at least some chance of getting in. I don't think they all will. I think a few other characters, like Pac-Man, Mii's, another zelda rep, or a different FE character might make it as well (in place of chrom or ike).
The ducks represent the fact that I'm sure there's a character I haven't predicted at all who will probably be in. Sakurai still has a WTF reveal for us, mark my words.
I know there's still some controversial stuff on there (Ridley is always controversial, RAY01 is a little past his prime, ect) but I'm going to stand by it for now. I might guess once more at a final roster post E3 once the game comes out.
orky
