Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[volbound1700]

So I was thinking (I know bad) but a lot of people cite character's popularity as a reason for their inclusion but most our polls and a lot of the hype has come after the announcement of Smash 4 and there is a good chance most of the roster was set around that time. So how legit is this argument?

It almost sounds better to argue who was popular in the Brawl era.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I think popularity doesn't matter nearly as much as people think it does in most cases because now these days, Nintendo doesn't even run an official forum, and Namco-Bandai has a track record for not caring (TTT2 but still) - The best results for us to look at when it comes to additional characters would probably be the Melee polls, the Brawl fan-letter numbers (Where Ridley and Krystal had 4-5 and Masked Man had as much as Lucas himself), and the NSider Brawl Poll (Unfortunately, I'm the only one here who has an idea of how that looks like) which, if that all means anything, I think it gives Toad, Krystal, Masked Man, Ridley, K. Rool (To an extent, I don't remember much of these results even well; there's others who do better than me), Isaac, and a few others an upper hand but not by much. Especially since the rest of those poll results were included one way or another, and most as playable (Wolf, Lucas, Olimar, Ike, etc)

Unfortunately a lot of the other stuff came in too late (Chrom, Shulk, Palutena, etc) and would be added on their own merits, most likely, if they were included. It's also worth noting that Bowser Jr nor Paper Mario didn't have much of a fanbase until after 2007, which really sucks for them considering they're on the Top 10 almost everywhere I go.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So I was thinking (I know bad) but a lot of people cite character's popularity as a reason for their inclusion but most our polls and a lot of the hype has come after the announcement of Smash 4 and there is a good chance most of the roster was set around that time. So how legit is this argument?

It almost sounds better to argue who was popular in the Brawl era.

Hmmm...this is true. Anyone who just now starts to gain popularity is dead in the water if you ask me.

However, Smash 4 wasn't even in development when it was announced. So that is a little bit different. But as far as Brawl possibilities, i'd say Ridley, K.Rool, Isaac, etc...

 

[Thirdkoopa]

As I pointed out, Nintendo's official forum (That they did look at and that did have japanese users) died in the ending of 2007, one day before Brawl Wi-Fi was announced. There was a huge poll sometime in the end of 2006 (They also did one at the ending of 2005, but there's not as much weight to it) that had SAWNIC for raw popularity. I think I'm one of the very few who is even from there hanging around here, and hell, I came a month before it closed.

Which makes the popularity cases even harder.

 

[N3ON]

So I was thinking (I know bad) but a lot of people cite character's popularity as a reason for their inclusion but most our polls and a lot of the hype has come after the announcement of Smash 4 and there is a good chance most of the roster was set around that time. So how legit is this argument?

It almost sounds better to argue who was popular in the Brawl era.

Most characters that are popular now were also popular like last year when Sakurai was likely deciding the roster, so popularity is still a valid point. Popularity around Brawl helps too, Sakurai is known for including some characters popular during the development of the previous game, but recent popularity also plays its part.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I think the only character last time around that truly had recent popularity (asides from SAWNIC) is Lucario, really.

 

[volbound1700]

I am starting to get a little nervous, I should say, that Ridley and King K Rool may not make the cut despite their popularity with us.

I feel safer about Megaman because of Sakurai's Capcom comment. I also feel safe about Pac-Man and possibly Little Mac and Mewtwo.

 

[Bajef8]

It's more just popularity overall. Lloyd's popularity for example has been around for awhile. But yeah i must be too tired to literally have missed that a line above lol. But yeah 3rdi parties are hard to predict anyway. We just guess as best as we can. However thirdkoopa, didnt you mean Sakurai goes up and asks a favor? Kojima asked the favor.

 

[FalKoopa]

I can't shake the feeling that Sakurai announced Smash 4 as early as E3 2011 so that he could properly take character popularity into account while deciding upon the roster. He gave us a good amount of time as well: from E3 2011 to February 2012

 

[Thirdkoopa]

It's more just popularity overall. Lloyd's popularity for example has been around for awhile. But yeah i must be too tired to literally have missed that a line above lol. But yeah 3rdi parties are hard to predict anyway. We just guess as best as we can. However thirdkoopa, didnt you mean Sakurai goes up and asks a favor? Kojima asked the favor.

No I meant what I said there. It was a friend thing. We don't know if Sakurai will have enough interest to ask the Third-Parties but we know the Third-Parties will come to him.

I can't think of many people he'd say no to, but that could happen to Travis Touchdown and/or Layton.

I am starting to get a little nervous, I should say, that Ridley and King K Rool may not make the cut despite their popularity with us.

I feel safer about Megaman because of Sakurai's Capcom comment. I also feel safe about Pac-Man and possibly Little Mac and Mewtwo.

I'll put your mind at ease: Ridley was the #2 character wanted on the NSider poll (Out of all the polls, we know he doesn't ignore this one, especially since it's the only way to get the Eastern and Western fanbase in one place) and K. Rool was in the 20's. I don't have the Melee poll on hand with me but I think he ranked up high there (Anyone mind linking?) and I think he did have some fan-letters. To top that off, Ridley was the #2 most wanted character for a long period of time.

Unless we had an abyssal want for a character, those are the popularity ranks that really matter. Does that ease your mind some?

I can't shake the feeling that Sakurai announced Smash 4 as early as E3 2011 so that he could properly take character popularity into account while deciding upon the roster. He gave us a good amount of time as well: from E3 2011 to February 2012

Unfortunately a small thread on here and a bit more roster-makings around a few other parts... isn't much to go off of. Sucks.

 

[N3ON]

I think the only character last time around that truly had recent popularity (asides from SAWNIC) is Lucario, really.

What? Around Brawl the only ones that didn't have a notable amount of popularity were like... ZSS, Snake, ROB, and PKMN Trainer.

 

[volbound1700]

@ N3on. Not really. Bandana Dee, Ghirahim, Takamaru, etc. were not even on the radar in Brawl era. There have been no characters made and old characters fallen off (see the new thread about it)

@ Scoliosis Jones Agree with your statement



I do think a couple of the AT from Brawl may make it in this one as characters. Sakurai even stated that some of the ATs were character ideas but did not make the cut.

Waluigi, Ray MK, Stafy, Isaac, Jill Dozer, Lyn, and Saki were among the ATs and I could see at least two from that group sneaking into this game.

 

[Banjodorf]

I am starting to get a little nervous, I should say, that Ridley and King K Rool may not make the cut despite their popularity with us.

I feel safer about Megaman because of Sakurai's Capcom comment. I also feel safe about Pac-Man and possibly Little Mac and Mewtwo.

Why? What reason could you possibly have? We aren't the only people they're popular with, and K. Rool ranks very high on Eastern polls. Sakurai also knows that Ridley is wanted. Remember, he directly addressed the fact.

I get the whole "on the safe side" thing, but there's no reason to worry about things so much that have more good than bad to them.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

What? Around Brawl the only ones that didn't have a notable amount of popularity were like... ZSS, Snake, ROB, and PKMN Trainer.

I more-or-less mean the only one that got in off of popularity or popularity having some effect. (Asides from SAWNIC)

-Ike was added in because of interest from the company and Sakurai himself
-Wario/Pit/Meta-Knight were before the polls and everything.
-King Dedede has importance to his franchise
-Diddy Kong has the same
-Lucas has been one of the very few wanted ever since Smash 64
-Pikmin & Olimar more or less fit as a new series
-Wolf has importance
-Blah blah blah for the rest of the characters I didn't get into.

Even then, Lucario might have not been as much popularity and instead Gamefreak going "Check this **** out" and Sakurai being like "oh cool i'll add it" along with the other three producers. Also even then while many were popular on the Brawl poll, that's probably not what even pushed since they were mostly done with a lot of features by then.

 

[volbound1700]

Why? What reason could you possibly have? We aren't the only people they're popular with, and K. Rool ranks very high on Eastern polls. Sakurai also knows that Ridley is wanted. Remember, he directly addressed the fact.

I get the whole "on the safe side" thing, but there's no reason to worry about things so much that have more good than bad to them.

Why?

Why does Nintendo keep ignoring K Rool and make new villians for DKC series.

Why did Ridley not make it into Melee and Brawl despite big demands then as well?

I can see Ridley not making the cut and Sakurai give us Anthony instead but puts Ridley all in the new SSE just because Sakurai doesn't think Ridley has a good move set. Yet, we have Bowser and Charizard who are BIG, Slow, and have unique movesets.

 

[N3ON]

@ N3on. Not really. Bandana Dee, Ghirahim, Takamaru, etc. were not even on the radar in Brawl era. There have been no characters made and old characters fallen off (see the new thread about it)

Uhh... I know, that's why recent popularity is important as well as Brawl-era popularity. I never said those three were on the radar around Brawl. Also... there have been characters made since Brawl that have a chance at inclusion this time...

Think I might be missing something, not quite sure what your point is.

I do think a couple of the AT from Brawl may make it in this one as characters. Sakurai even stated that some of the ATs were character ideas but did not make the cut.

He said ATs were characters that couldn't make it as playable characters, he didn't say any of them were ever planned to be playable characters.

 

[Banjodorf]

I more-or-less mean the only one that got in off of popularity or popularity having some effect. (Asides from SAWNIC)

-Ike was added in because of interest from the company and Sakurai himself
-Wario/Pit/Meta-Knight were before the polls and everything.
-King Dedede has importance to his franchise
-Diddy Kong has the same
-Lucas has been one of the very few wanted ever since Smash 64
-Pikmin & Olimar more or less fit as a new series
-Wolf has importance
-Blah blah blah for the rest of the characters I didn't get into.

Even then, Lucario might have not been as much popularity and instead Gamefreak going "Check this **** out" and Sakurai being like "oh cool i'll add it" along with the other three producers.

You say all of that seemingly certain of the fact that popularity played ABSOLUTELY no part in the character placement. In that sense, why even pay attention to character polls? Why even mention games far in advance to look at people's speculation? Besides that, polls aren't the only way to gain popularity results.

Importance...is important, and K. Rool and Ridley have that so it doesn't bother me, but some of those things don't have as much of a basis as their character popularity. Ike had incredible popularity over here, so did literally all of those. I don't see why you would argue that popularity doesn't play a part when it literally must.

Stated by Sakurai himself in the Nintendo Power interview: "We looked at each series and tried to pick characters that would have the widest appeal to the largest fanbase." So...yeah.

Why?

Why does Nintendo keep ignoring K Rool and make new villians for DKC series.

Why did Ridley not make it into Melee and Brawl despite big demands then as well?


I can see Ridley not making the cut and Sakurai give us Anthony instead but puts Ridley all in the new SSE just because Sakurai doesn't think Ridley has a good move set. Yet, we have Bowser and Charizard who are BIG, Slow, and have unique movesets.

It happened twice, in inconsistent intervals. Nintendo isn't really sure what to do with the DK series, so they keep trying different angles. However, K. Rool remains the most frequent and main antagonist of the DK franchise, as said by Sakurai himself. As for the villains, I'm really not sure why I have to explain this to you, but:

1. Nintendo EAD attempted to make something new for Donkey Kong, with mixed results. They literally took out every character except DK himself and that was a blemish on the game.

2. Retro Studios , being a bit of a rogue organization, seems to have wanted to differentiate themselves from the Rare games by trying their hand at their own thing. Those villains were also met with mixed results. Don't freak out on me, you're being less sensical than i've seen before.

If there was really some conspiracy about K. Rool appearing in games, Nintendo wouldn't have authorized the DKC cartoon be released on DVD within the launch window of Returns, as a celebration of sorts. By the way, it prominently features Big Green.

Also, BETWEEN JB and DKCR we had the Paon Trilogy, which while not the best gameplay or concept wise, was still faithful to all the characters the fans loved. K. Rool was the main villain.

I don't see them "Brushing him under the rug", I see them doing what they should be doing with Mario instead with DK because they're too afraid to give Bowser some friends.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Why does Nintendo keep ignoring K Rool and make new villians for DKC series.

Because it's Retro.

Why did Ridley not make it into Melee

Because he didn't even have support that much back then and not much characters did, and that game had a wholesome many characters that were suppose to make the cut.

and Brawl despite big demands then as well?

Because I've said this before so many times... 1. They were already probably mostly done with the Roster or something of that sorts when tracing poll results 2. It's very likely Ridley was already in the SSE.

 

[Deleted member]

Yuri appears in Project X Zone for Nintendo 3DS.

And in Tales of Hearts as a summonable character.

I'd say due to Lloyd's worldwide popularity, association with Nintendo, and that Tales producer (who is also working on Smash) mentioning Lloyd specifically as a character he'd like to see included, he probably has the best chances for a Tales character, but I agree he's definitely not the only option.

I need a source for the underlined.
The only thing I have seen in regards to Tales in Smash is that Yoshizumi bringing up how Yoshi-to would love to see a character from the Tales series.
Lloyd has never been specifically mentioned.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Importance...is important, and K. Rool and Ridley have that so it doesn't bother me, but some of those things don't have as much of a basis as their character popularity. Ike had incredible popularity over here, so did literally all of those. I don't see why you would argue that popularity doesn't play a part when it literally must.

I'm saying it didn't play much of a part in that game. It still played a part. I may just be wording myself bad. Morning feel. I'm just saying they by far had other merits than being popular choices, and popularity wasn't even close to the only thing, and since game development is usually later on in, the polls usually come back and play a bigger role in the next game.

Stated by Sakurai himself in the Nintendo Power interview: "We looked at each series and tried to pick characters that would have the widest appeal to the largest fanbase." So...yeah.

That's not necessarily that hard to do, at least, especially back then. It's just noticing what's in and out for each series.

 

[Banjodorf]

I'm saying it didn't play much of a part in that game. It still played a part. I may just be wording myself bad. Morning feel. I'm just saying they by far had other merits than being popular choices, and popularity wasn't even close to the only thing, and since game development is usually later on in, the polls usually come back and play a bigger role in the next game.



That's not necessarily that hard to do, at least, especially back then. It's just noticing what's in and out for each series.

Well, I'm going to contend now (you probably aren't going to fight this) that popularity is going to be one of the more important reasons this time around, because, y'know, the whole bottom-of-the-barrel thing.

 

[MagnesD3]

This wait is unbearable.

 

[N3ON]

I more-or-less mean the only one that got in off of popularity or popularity having some effect. (Asides from SAWNIC)

-Ike was added in because of interest from the company and Sakurai himself
-Wario/Pit/Meta-Knight were before the polls and everything.
-King Dedede has importance to his franchise
-Diddy Kong has the same
-Lucas has been one of the very few wanted ever since Smash 64
-Pikmin & Olimar more or less fit as a new series
-Wolf has importance
-Blah blah blah for the rest of the characters I didn't get into.

Even then, Lucario might have not been as much popularity and instead Gamefreak going "Check this **** out" and Sakurai being like "oh cool i'll add it" along with the other three producers. Also even then while many were popular on the Brawl poll, that's probably not what even pushed since they were mostly done with a lot of features by then.

Ofc, generally characters do need something aside from popularity to be included, only those with popularity like Sonic can get in solely on that. I'd say Lucario had more in his favour than simple popularity, especially since when Sakurai included him (in late 05) he hadn't hit his popularity peak yet IIRC. This time around things likely won't be much different, most characters will be included due to multiple factors, while a character like Mega Man could be included due to his sheer demand (though he also does have very close ties to Nintendo).

I need a source for the underlined.
The only thing I have seen in regards to Tales in Smash is that Yoshizumi bringing up how Yoshi-to would love to see a character from the Tales series.
Lloyd has never been specifically mentioned.

I thought it was Yoshi-to who said it, but it turns out it was Yoshizumi. Anyway, here: http://kingdom-of-tales.net/news-568.html
When talking about using Smash as a good way of promotion, Yoshizumi mentions how characters have to be on a Nintendo system to be considered, and gives special consideration to Tales of Symphonia and Abyss characters, then mentions Lloyd specifically as an example.

Nous pourrions bien sûr envisager des personnages de Tales of Symphonia ou Tales of the Abyss, Lloyd, par exemple.

 

[Ultinarok]

Hmmmm, for some reason I want the initial trailer to show some gameplay, and then show a two vs. two battle between four old veterans. Bowser will interrupt, accompanied by his teammate, Bowser Jr., Pit will join the fight accompanied by Palutena, and Zelda will join the battle accompanied by Impa, and Marth will join accompanied by Roy/Chrom. It would be kind of a cool way to introduce some new characters as teammates for veterans with whom their associated. Unlikely of course.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

EDIT: Nevermind. N3ON found it.

 

[Deleted member]

Listing as an example =/= claiming as a character he would love to see.

Also, why is it only the French version of the interview that mentions Lloyd directly by name?

 

[Frostwraith]

Also, why is it only the French version of the interview that mentions Lloyd directly by name?

That site N3ON provided has the interview in both English and French. Just scroll down and you will find it in English.

(Not that it matters much to me since I understand French. )

 

[Deleted member]

That site N3ON provided has the interview in both English and French. Just scroll down and you will find it in English.

(Not that it matters much to me since I understand French. )

That doesn't answer my question.
I said "why is it only the French version of the interview that mentions Lloyd by name".
I'm well aware there's an English version. In fact, it's the same interview that all the headlines about "Tales characters may appear in Smash" discuss.
However, it does not mention Lloyd by name in the same line as the French version.

 

[N3ON]

Listing as an example =/= claiming as a character he would love to see.

Also, why is it only the French version of the interview that mentions Lloyd directly by name?

At least he gave Lloyd consideration above all other Tales characters. Listing him specifically as an example of what kind of character might get into Smash, should there be a Tales character, is better than what kind of character he'd like to see in Smash anyway.

The part that spread widely omits that whole question anyway, it only focuses on a small part of the interview IIRC.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Yoshimitzu speaks French?
I doubt that he said Lloyd.

 

[Frostwraith]

That doesn't answer my question.
I said "why is it only the French version of the interview that mentions Lloyd by name".
I'm well aware there's an English version. In fact, it's the same interview that all the headlines about "Tales characters may appear in Smash" discuss.
However, it does not mention Lloyd by name in the same line as the French version.

Sorry, I misunderstood.

Yeah, it's kind of odd how was that lost in the translation from French to English. Well, anyway, this may mean something for Lloyd supporters...

Yoshimitzu speaks French?
I doubt that he said Lloyd.

Yoshizumi, not Yoshimitzu.

Even if Yoshizumi didn't speak French, I'm sure you know about the concept of translation.

 

[8-peacock-8]

Yoshimitzu speaks French?
I doubt that he said Lloyd.

Who's Yoshimitzu?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Who's Yoshimitzu?

You get the point.

 

[8-peacock-8]

You get the point.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Well, I'm going to contend now (you probably aren't going to fight this) that popularity is going to be one of the more important reasons this time around, because, y'know, the whole bottom-of-the-barrel thing.

I don't disagree with that. Now these days Sakurai, any other Producers that hopped on board with him (Including the Namco-Bandai ones) and anyone else involved have less room for inclusions, and now that NSider has officially gone down as of five years ago, they can take ALL the poll results, anything they think is notable from the recent years, and the stuff from Melee/Brawl along with an amount of emails that went to Masahiro, Kensuke, Keisuke, and Akiya during development of Bralw.

Do I think it'll matter a lot more? No, but it'll certainly have more of an impact, especially since there's very few franchises that can even get two newcomers at this point and many series still have room for one.

At any rate, for most supporters, I think what I've said in-thread should ease people's minds a bit. Ridley being #2 and K. Rool being very important for a start isn't anything to scoff at. Only a week left, eh?

 

[FalKoopa]

Yoshimitzu speaks French?
I doubt that he said Lloyd.

No, he said Goku.

 

[BluePikmin11]

No, he said Goku.

Which is it?

 

[volbound1700]

In the end, Sakurai likely to add the roster he wants to add (and likely his team will have some input as well). I do think he tries to please fans but he may also see a popular character that is added and that the moveset will not work and therefore try to represent the character in a different way.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

In the end, Sakurai likely to add the roster he wants to add (and likely his team will have some input as well). I do think he tries to please fans but he may also see a popular character that is added and that the moveset will not work and therefore try to represent the character in a different way.

Not even just his team but basically the entire cast who's hired at pre-production. The artists are creating first animation rigs and deciding how to do it, while the Programmer's are refreshing themselves with the engine, so the characters and many other things you would expect get talked about heavily on and on for 2-3 months of pre-production.

 

[Bajef8]

Why?

Why does Nintendo keep ignoring K Rool and make new villians for DKC series.

Why did Ridley not make it into Melee and Brawl despite big demands then as well?

I can see Ridley not making the cut and Sakurai give us Anthony instead but puts Ridley all in the new SSE just because Sakurai doesn't think Ridley has a good move set. Yet, we have Bowser and Charizard who are BIG, Slow, and have unique movesets.

For the Ridley thing, they've tried many times to add him. Melee, they couldn't get his tail programmed right and found it too hard to try and work him in from a programming stand point. Brawl, Probably just decided to put him in the game for fans in SSE. He may finally consider making him playable since some Ridley fans saw that as a slap in the face.

On a side note...Pokemon. They seem to be the only franchise that just gets some rando new popular character added in Melee and Brawl. Pikachu and Jiggs (due to her Original 12 status) seem pretty much standard at this point. PKMN Trainer is a big deal too, so I expect him back no problem. But in Melee, Mewtwo was added for popularity's sake at the time. He's was also very recent. Then came along Lucario, the freshest, newest, current gen popular Pokemon, hence his addition. I expect the same thing again, however, I think it'll be Mewtwo. He fits that mold by being the newest, freshest, current gen guy in Pokemon through his new form, plus he gets the bonus of already being hugely popular anyway as well as being from a previous Smash.