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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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FlareHabanero

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Don't know, even with the height of popularity of Golden Sun and Isaac being among the more popular picks during pre-Brawl, Golden Sun got really snubbed with content (not even a single sticker). I have a feeling with the waning popularity of Golden Sun (especially in Japan where the popularity fell off the map), something similar might happen again. As to why Golden Sun was ignored and Isaac only appeared as one the few decent Assist Trophies, who knows. Might have to do with not wanting too many newcomers, might have to do with focusing priorities on "finishing" the existing series, might have to do with time constraints forcing a minimal amount of content (kind of like how it's implied with Saki), or maybe there was some copyright conflicts that made inclusion a tad more difficult then usual. But whatever the case may be, at the moment there are some doubts that Golden Sun might expand into a fully established universe. It might depend on whether or not Pre-Brawl popularity is being used as a basis for inclusion, or the staff do see something interesting about Isaac and Golden Sun and want to implement content.

As for Xenoblade Chronicles and Shulk, again one advantage it has over Golden Sun and Isaac is the timing. The height of popularity was around 2011-2012 during the time Xenoblade Chronicles was being localized in other regions, with the planned roster for the new Super Smash Bros. game being compiled sometime during 2012. To add more fuel to the fire, there has been some interest in including Shulk in Super Smash Bros. by official staff at Monolith Soft. Namely Kaori Tanaka (aka Soraya Saga), wife of Xenoblade Chronicles director Tetsuya Takahashi, who stated she was hopeful for Shulk's inclusion. But who knows, that might get snubbed for what ever reason too.
 

GmanSir

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I think Isaac's slight fall in popularity was due to the lackluster title for the DS. Add to the fact that there seems to be no signs of a new Golden Sun. I agree, it would be cool having him, but his popularity was at it's highest during Brawl. Predictions are never certain, and ALWAYS change in time. As for mine, my current prediction is that Isaac doesn't have a bigger chance than Shulk. If X does in fact turn into a Xenoblades sequel, then that will add to the fire, but if a new Golden Sun is announced, well, like I said, predictions always change, and I hope everybody knows that.
 

TheLastJinjo

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Medusa was really only prevalent in the original, and in Uprising pretty much only lasted as long as the game was honoring the classic, then the game moved to bigger, better things than her.

Ocarina of Time redefined the Zelda series and as a result those were the ones to impact the Zelda characters in the series. It's why Sheik remains, and why Ganondorf was in and not Ganon from the first three games. Likewise, Uprising is the game that has redefined Kid Icarus, and based on that Medusa has a fart's chance in hell to make it in over other, more relevant characters introduced and developed by Sakurai himself.
Well, it seems most agree Medusa makes more sense. Hades would just be a muh recency addition, Hades is the main villian of Uprising, Medusa is a the main villain of the franchise and a staple. She even kicked Hades' ass at the end, so I'll assume she'd be the villian of the next installment

I'm actually pleased to see some rosters have a bit more variation with a few random characters that most the board doesn't agree with like Goose, Tactician or Classic Link. Makes looking at rosters a lot more interesting rather than having the same basic roster repeated with the odd change here and there(Zoroark/Genesect instead of Lucario, Roy/Chrom/Lucina/Lyn as third FE rep, Toad/Bowser Jr/Waluigi/Paper Mario and that tends to be the only real difference. Occasionally Dixie shows up too.).

Thank you for injecting a little oddballness to the otherwise copy/paste rosters.

Edit: Yes; I'm aware that the point of these to guess what the line up will be, but it doesn't make for very interesting conversation, debate or discussion if we all agree on the vast majority.
He's right, so many generic rosters. It actually ends up making those rosters not so likely, because I doubt Sakurai would just add the most obvious choices and nothing else.
 

N3ON

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X is really likely to be an Xeno____ game. so that's the only reason why.

rather have issac.
X being a Xenoblade would indeed help Shulk's chances, but that's still only two games in the series, one of which might have a lot of niche popularity but overall didn't create a huge splash, and the other... well it'd be surprising if it did fantastically (even though it looks fantastic). Compared to GS's three, of which DD did worse than Xenoblade commercially but the first two did much better, I'd still give GS the upper hand. And yes I know sales don't matter, but they do indicate audience size.

I think Shulk has a strong chance. He's from Monolith Soft, and they helped Brawl, along with New Leaf and Skyward Sword. Xenoblade did hot by critics and fans. Sakurai has said that he wished Nintendo made new IPs when developing Melee or Brawl, forgot which. Xenoblade is a big Wii title, so he does have a big chance. It all goes down to Sakurai.
Yes, it does all come down to Sakurai, but people seem to misconstrue the fact that he was looking for new IPs to include in Brawl as any new IP will have better chances because it's new. Being new really means nothing towards chances, Sakurai is still going to hold the series to his existing standards for inclusion and not going to make any exceptions because it's new. If anything it being new might convince Sakurai it's not "proven" enough yet. Also, there's been no precedent of Sakurai choosing characters based on which development team made them, so chances are being made by Monolith Soft, even if they did help with Brawl, won't really change anything.

Lastly, Xenoblade, while it did great critically, and in it's niche it has quite a bit of popularity, is not a "big Wii title" per say, its commercial performance was really only mediocre.

I think Isaac's slight fall in popularity was due to the lackluster title for the DS. Add to the fact that there seems to be no signs of a new Golden Sun. I agree, it would be cool having him, but his popularity was at it's highest during Brawl. Predictions are never certain, and ALWAYS change in time. As for mine, my current prediction is that Isaac doesn't have a bigger chance than Shulk. If X does in fact turn into a Xenoblades sequel, then that will add to the fire, but if a new Golden Sun is announced, well, like I said, predictions always change, and I hope everybody knows that.
If anything Dark Dawn increased Isaac's popularity again. Just check the 2010 character poll in the poll thread, Isaac is in first place. Sure it wasn't to the standard of previous GS games, but anytime a character or series returns to the spotlight, it is a positive thing for their chances, as Sakurai doesn't really discriminate based on game quality. Really, imagine where Isaac and GS would be without Dark Dawn, they wouldn't have had a game for ten years at this point and would certainly have significantly decreased chances compared to now.
 

TheLastJinjo

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I'm really iffy on this whole Starfy thing. Statistically I see why he has a chance, but I just don't see him getting in. I'm saying I wouldn't be suprised if it went either way.

And yeah Toon Link...I'm leaning more towards him going bye bye. Maybe a different version of alt. Link




Don't know, even with the height of popularity of Golden Sun and Isaac being among the more popular picks during pre-Brawl, Golden Sun got really snubbed with content (not even a single sticker). I have a feeling with the waning popularity of Golden Sun (especially in Japan where the popularity fell off the map), something similar might happen again. As to why Golden Sun was ignored and Isaac only appeared as one the few decent Assist Trophies, who knows. Might have to do with not wanting too many newcomers, might have to do with focusing priorities on "finishing" the existing series, might have to do with time constraints forcing a minimal amount of content (kind of like how it's implied with Saki), or maybe there was some copyright conflicts that made inclusion a tad more difficult then usual. But whatever the case may be, at the moment there are some doubts that Golden Sun might expand into a fully established universe. It might depend on whether or not Pre-Brawl popularity is being used as a basis for inclusion, or the staff do see something interesting about Isaac and Golden Sun and want to implement content.
This is why I think Starfy is more likely than Issac, even he got more love in Brawl than Golden Sun did.
 

N3ON

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As for GS not receiving much content in Brawl, yes it is a bit worrisome, but I wouldn't exactly say it's cause to prioritize Isaac any lower because of it. Habanero listed all the different possibilites it could've been, and I'm sure there are even more factors we're unaware of that could've affected it. What we do know is Sakurai at least thought GS merited an AT, which takes more effort to make than simple trophies and especially stickers. Sakurai obviously gave the majority of the priority to series with playable characters (and AC), non-playable series weren't exactly given content in relation to their overall impact and popularity, as they weren't the priority. The bar is obviously a bit lower now, and either way you want to look at it, whether Sakurai uses Brawl popularity this time or he looks at current popularity, Isaac still has a notable amount of both, in a series among the largest and most popular of those remaining and one that has only grown since Brawl, so I wouldn't use something with so many variables as definitive evidence of Sakurai's current thoughts.
 

TheLastJinjo

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There are doubts about Starfy too.
Kind of tired of people doubting characters just because they don't want them and they aren't on top of the polls. Clearly characters get in regardless of polls and Starfy is already likely and deserving.
 

N3ON

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Kind of tired of people doubting characters just because they don't want them and they aren't on top of the polls. Clearly characters get in regardless of polls and Starfy is already likely and deserving.
That's not the only reason people are doubting Starfy. Nearly every character has "doubts", definitely including Starfy. If there weren't any perceived "doubts" towards a character they'd be considered a shoo-in, and even that is never unanimous.
 

Thirdkoopa

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As for GS not receiving much content in Brawl, yes it is a bit worrisome, but I wouldn't exactly say it's cause to prioritize Isaac any lower because of it. Habanero listed all the different possibilites it could've been, and I'm sure there are even more factors we're unaware of that could've affected it. What we do know is Sakurai at least thought GS merited an AT, which takes more effort to make than simple trophies and especially stickers. Sakurai obviously game the majority of the priority to series with playable characters (and AC), non-playable series weren't exactly given content in relation to their overall impact and popularity, as they weren't the priority. The bar is obviously a bit lower now, and either way you want to look at it, whether Sakurai uses Brawl popularity this time or he looks at current popularity, Isaac still has a notable amount of both, in a series among the largest and most popular of those remaining and one that has only grown since Brawl, so I wouldn't use something with so many variables as definitive evidence of Sakurai's current thoughts.
This

Also, he did get music. While I know that's not much, it's for sure saying something. We also have to add that his is for sure one of the more completing looking assist trophies (Despite having an awkward figure, but hey, that goes to all assist trophies)
 

TheLastJinjo

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That's not the only reason people are doubting Starfy. Nearly every character has "doubts", definitely including Starfy. If there weren't any perceived "doubts" towards a character they'd be considered a shoo-in, and even that is never unanimous.
Then what's the reasons people are doubting Starfy? I've never heard any reasons that don't involve preference so far.
 

N3ON

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Then what's the reasons people are doubting Starfy? I've never heard any reasons that don't involve preference so far.
Maybe because Sakurai previously said he wouldn't work in Smash, and just because he changed his mind on Villager doesn't mean he necessarily changed it on every character he's previously rejected.

Maybe because characters from other unrepresented series have more popularity and their games have caused a bigger impact that Starfy's mostly-Japan-only series.

Or maybe because Sakurai just doesn't like Starfy. :troll:
 

Thirdkoopa

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Then what's the reasons people are doubting Starfy? I've never heard any reasons that don't involve preference so far.
why am I even bothering giving a list even though I know how this'll turn out

-I'm not sure how well he sold in America or Europe, but he's not exactly a seller. I heard he was popular in Japan, but unless it's "Monster Hunter" or "Dragon Quest", I don't take that literally without proof. If possible, show more than what's been given
-Other series have already shown to get the shaft before; I mean yeah, it all depends on how Sakurai's going about this roster, but for all we know we could end up getting a character added to every series of the Original twelve and that's it.
-His appearance so far. Sakurai takes Starfy about as seriously as Magikarp; really
-His appearance to make people want to play his game. Yeah, people are gonna chew me out here. Bite me. I've played his game, and while it's for sure a fun game, chances are if "My friends playing Smash Hoes" in a basement is proof of anything (which is a lot of friends over the years) Newcomers like Dillon and Isaac at least have more of a staying power
-He's over the era that Sakurai and producers deemed to "Not have that many games during (Which is total bull, but hey, I'm a game producer, not Smash Bros's producer)
-There's not really much supporting him either. Or at least, there's not much supporting him that you can't say for other existing characters.

I wouldn't say his chances are the most slim, and I don't think anyone here holds a right to, but I'm not betting on him.
 

TheLastJinjo

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Maybe because Sakurai previously said he wouldn't work in Smash, and just because he changed his mind on Villager doesn't mean he necessarily changed it on every character he's previously rejected.

Maybe because characters from other unrepresented series have more popularity and their games have caused a bigger impact that Starfy's mostly-Japan-only series.

Or maybe because Sakurai just doesn't like Starfy. :troll:
Again, dissing Starfy because you want other characters. I don't see why Starfy can't co-exist with other characters Aad Starfy clearly works, so if he got Villager to work you can be damn sure Starfy can work. I don't think Sakurai would refrain from adding people based on his own personal preference. That would anger a lot of people.
 

TheLastJinjo

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Even if Sakurai didn't like the character, there's a bunch of other producers that work at Nintendo, and at least four (including Sakurai himself) for every Smash Bros game.

If Starfy was discluded, it wouldn't just be for personal bias.
Who said they didn't like Starfy. That's kind of bias to assume.
 

N3ON

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Again, dissing Starfy because you want other characters. I don't see why Starfy can't co-exist with other characters Aad Starfy clearly works, so if he got Villager to work you can be damn sure Starfy can work. I don't think Sakurai would refrain from adding people based on his own personal preference. That would anger a lot of people.
First off, where did I diss Starfy there? I think Starfy is a cool character who could definitely work in Smash. Neither of my two points (the third was a joke) had anything to do with personal preference. It's a fact that Sakurai has previously said Starfy wouldn't work, it wasn't my opinion, it was his. He's changed his mind on Villager, so far he's made no indication he's changed it on Starfy. He might've, sure, but we can't assume he has. Regardless, Starfy's series isn't even the "biggest" (size-wise or impact wise) of series not currently in Smash, so even if Sakurai had changed his opinion, there's no guarantee he would even prioritize Starfy above other bigger and more popular characters (there is also proof other characters are more popular, this is not my opinion).

I'm not saying Starfy definitely won't get in, I'm saying he's hardly a sure thing and there are doubts towards his inclusion, AS THERE ARE WITH ALMOST EVERY CHARACTER. It's really nothing out of the ordinary, and Starfy has a better shot than many others, but willfully ignoring what he has against him is pretty silly.
 
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Maybe because Sakurai previously said he wouldn't work in Smash, and just because he changed his mind on Villager doesn't mean he necessarily changed it on every character he's previously rejected.

Maybe because characters from other unrepresented series have more popularity and their games have caused a bigger impact that Starfy's mostly-Japan-only series.

Or maybe because Sakurai just doesn't like Starfy. :troll:
Devil's Advocate: Sakurai never said anything about Starfy directly. What he said was that there were no games since Pikmin that had a character suitable for a fighting game during Brawl's development.
But then again, he also said Villager didn't fit Smash's vibe, and Wii Fit Trainer doesn't really scream to me as someone that would be suitable for a fighting game.

There is also the strange deal with Starly's trophy (referred to as "Stapy" prior to the international DS game) appearing in the "Fighter Related" section despite Starfy not being a playable character. No other series without a playable character has this.
This could hint that Starfy was possibly going to be playable at some point.
In fact, with the unidentifiable missing victory theme (even when the "Forbidden 7" are accounted for) and the entire missing music section, it could very well be the case.
 

TheLastJinjo

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So being doubtful = pure unparalleled hatred?
But, the doubts are just based off comparing him to character requests and not appearing in the last game.

Devil's Advocate: Sakurai never said anything about Starfy directly. What he said was that there were no games since Pikmin that had a character suitable for a fighting game during Brawl's development.
But then again, he also said Villager didn't fit Smash's vibe, and Wii Fit Trainer doesn't really scream to me as someone that would be suitable for a fighting game.

There is also the strange deal with Starly's trophy (referred to as "Stapy" prior to the international DS game) appearing in the "Fighter Related" section despite Starfy not being a playable character. No other series without a playable character has this.
This could hint that Starfy was possibly going to be playable at some point.
In fact, with the unidentifiable missing victory theme (even when the "Forbidden 7" are accounted for) and the entire missing music section, it could very well be the case.
Correct. I noticed he also got more trophies and stickers than Golden Sun and the "Other" franchises. I also wouldn't assume Sakurai's complete opinion on Starfy.

EDIT: Didn't know I was double posting. Sorry.
 

N3ON

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Devil's Advocate: Sakurai never said anything about Starfy directly. What he said was that there were no games since Pikmin that had a character suitable for a fighting game during Brawl's development.
But then again, he also said Villager didn't fit Smash's vibe, and Wii Fit Trainer doesn't really scream to me as someone that would be suitable for a fighting game.
Funny how, when we thought he had said something a little different, you constantly used this point against Isaac, when he never mentioned Isaac specifically either. :p

But yes, there is a possibility Sakurai was excluding Starfy from that statement for whatever reason (maybe because it was an American interview and mentioning Starfy would only cause confusion at that point), and it's possible (but imo fairly unlikely) Starfy was once planned for more than his role ended up being, but nonetheless, there is still cause for some doubt, which was all I was saying. I'm not trying to argue against Starfy, I'm just saying he, like most candidates, does have points against him, which even you must agree with.
 

AEMehr

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Again, dissing Starfy because you want other characters.
How did you get this from that statement? N3ON's statement makes sense. Starfy is not in any means in the same league of popularity and importance of the Villager. Despite his original views of the Villager in Brawl, he decided he would not let them get in the way of having new important and beloved characters in Smash 4. Like N3ON said, that doesn't guarantee the same for previously denied characters.
I don't see why Starfy can't co-exist with other characters Aad Starfy clearly works, so if he got Villager to work you can be damn sure Starfy can work.
That doesn't relate to what N3ON stated in the slightest. N3ON said that there are characters from unrepresented franchises that are more popular and important than Starfy worldwide. Little Mac, Isaac, and Shulk normally come to mind when thinking of this. Nothing is stopping them from receiving higher priority over others like Starfy, Chibi-Robo, Dillon, etc. It's just that they receive higher demand overall and would most likely attract a much larger audience than Starfy ever would (Especially in Europe, where his franchise is non-existant).
I don't think Sakurai would refrain from adding people based on his own personal preference. That would anger a lot of people.
I'm pretty sure that was a just a joke (hence the troll face durr). Besides this has been disproven anyways with the two Kirby characters being added in the previous game.
 
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Funny how, when we thought he had said something a little different, you constantly used this point against Isaac, when he never mentioned Isaac specifically either. :p

But yes, there is a possibility Sakurai was excluding Starfy from that statement for whatever reason (maybe because it was an American interview and mentioning Starfy would only cause confusion at that point), and it's possible (but imo fairly unlikely) Starfy was once planned for more than his role ended up being, but nonetheless, it is still cause for some doubt, which was all I was saying. I'm not trying to argue against Starfy, I'm just saying he, like most candidates, does have points against him, which even you must agree with.
I never claimed he said it about Isaac directly like you are doing for Starfy, however.
Just that what he said applied to Isaac (which we later found out it didn't as what he actually said was different). What Sakurai said does apply to Starfy. However, it doesn't specifically single-out Starfy. Get the difference?

EDIT: I'm also not claiming that Starfy is excluded from the statement. Just that as tricky as Sakurai is, there is reason to believe that he can easily change his mind in Starfy's case, considering he may have planned to have Starfy playable, and both Villager and Wii Fit Trainer contradict what he has said in the past.

And the statement was in Famitsu as well, so it's not American based.
 

TheLastJinjo

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How did you get this from that statement? N3ON's statement makes sense. Starfy is not in any means in the same league of popularity and importance of the Villager. Despite his original views of the Villager in Brawl, he decided he would not let them get in the way of having new important and beloved characters in Smash 4. Like N3ON said, that doesn't guarantee the same for previously denied characters.
That doesn't relate to what N3ON stated in the slightest. N3ON said that there are characters from unrepresented franchises that are more popular and important than Starfy worldwide. Little Mac, Isaac, and Shulk normally come to mind when thinking of this. Nothing is stopping them from receiving higher priority over others like Starfy, Chibi-Robo, Dillon, etc. It's just that they receive higher demand overall and would most likely attract a much larger audience than Starfy ever would (Especially in Europe, where his franchise is non-existant).
I'm pretty sure he was joking with you. Besides this has been disproven anyways with the two Kirby characters being added in the previous game.
Like I said, most people doubt Starfy because they compare him to other nominees. Starfy is still popular and gets lots of love from Nintendo so is obviously important, he even got more love in Brawl than other franchises even if he was a bad Assist Trophy. I see no reason he can't co-exist with the others. Starfy has points against him, but so do all the nominees. My point is he shouldn't be treated as bad as he is by speculators and I think most underestimate his chances.
 

N3ON

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I never claimed he said it about Isaac directly like you are doing for Starfy, however.
Just that what he said applied to Isaac (which we later found out it didn't as what he actually said was different). What Sakurai said does apply to Starfy. However, it doesn't specifically single-out Starfy. Get the difference?
I'm just focusing on Starfy because he's the topic at hand, I realize Sakurai was talking about other series as well. We really were saying about the same thing (with the exception being we thought it meant something else back then), though times we were talking about Golden Sun we were focusing on Isaac, and now we're focusing on Starfy. You did say it applied directly to Isaac and GS, just not only to Isaac. And now it applies to Starfy, just not only to Starfy.

Though it doesn't really matter, that wasn't the point of my post.

And the statement was in Famitsu as well, so it's not American based.
Ah, ok. I was just thinking of the NP interview where he made the post-Olimar comment.
 
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From my perspective, I don't think the statement from Brawl can really be used anymore for anyone. Even I don't use it.
People that use it to detract any character at this point must find an excuse as to how Wii Fit Trainer somehow is suitable for a fighting game but characters like Starfy, Miis (which debuted before Brawl) Chibi-Robo, etc. are not.

And then we get Villager, who was not within that statement since AC came out before Pikmin, but was directly labeled as not being suitable as a fighter. Yet here he is.
And if that NeoGAF leak is completely accurate, then Miis would really discredit the statement. Especially since there was another statement in regards to the inclusion of Miis being too "casual-based" in the same vein as motion controls.

So while Starfy isn't a lock by any stretch, he isn't out of the running yet.
I feel that Starfy's main issue is his body frame. I can see it being an issue for Sakurai to deal with to feasibly have him perform basic motions required by every character.
It's not like Kirby or Jigglypuff where the arms and legs are separate yet stubby joints of his body; he's literally a star with a face, which doesn't allow much articulation.
 

AEMehr

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Like I said, most people doubt Starfy because they compare him to other nominees. Starfy is still popular and gets lots of love from Nintendo so is obviously important, he even got more love in Brawl than other franchises even if he was a bad Assist Trophy. I see no reason he can't co-exist with the others. Starfy has points against him, but so do all the nominees. My point is he shouldn't be treated as bad as he is by speculators and I think most underestimate his chances.
So what I got from this is that you suggest that we shouldn't compare competition then?

Well guys, looks like we're gonna get Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario in the next game no doubt.
 

TheLastJinjo

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So what I got from this is that you suggest that we shouldn't compare competition then?

Well guys, looks like we're gonna get Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario in the next game no doubt.
Don't know how you got that, Ariand. The point is that Starfy can co-exist and it's not always the most requested that get in over others.

Starfy really isnt a strong contender at this point, Im confident he can make it but when it comes to him vs. other newcomers and returning characters I see him falling behind.
Hard to believe after the addition of Wii Fit Trainer.
 
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I'm just focusing on Starfy because he's the topic at hand, I realize Sakurai was talking about other series as well. We really were saying about the same thing (with the exception being we thought it meant something else back then), though times we were talking about Golden Sun we were focusing on Isaac, and now we're focusing on Starfy. You did say it applied directly to Isaac and GS, just not only to Isaac. And now it applies to Starfy, just not only to Starfy.

Though it doesn't really matter, that wasn't the point of my post.
You missed my point entirely.
My point is I never used phrases like "What he said about Isaac" as if he specifically talked about Isaac as you are doing with Starfy.
I would bring up what (we thought at the time) Sakurai said while attributing Isaac to the statement.

This renders your attempt to draw out a case of hypocrisy on my part to be null.
 

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Don't know how you got that, Ariand. The point is that Starfy can co-exist and it's not always the most requested that get in over others.


Hard to believe after the addition of Wii Fit Trainer.
In an interview he said he deliberately chose her because he had received no requests for her and he wanted to actually surprise the fans, it honestly affects no others chances in any other way.
 
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