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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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Silverjay323

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I'm not arguing whether Jigglypuff is important or not - I'm just stating that 'but she's Fairy-type now' and 'but she's been in all three Smash games so far' aren't valid arguments. I couldn't care either way if Jigglypuff returns or not, but these two arguments for her re-inclusion are null and void.
And I agree with you completely. The other reasons I stated however (iconic,recognition), gives it an advantage over Lucario, whose fame will not hold a candle to Jigglypuff's once it goes away.
If it's over Lucario than it could be considered a free pass this time around.
How?
Lucario was much more prevalent in his revelation then Jigglypuff was (a video clip vs. a picture, one's bound to leave a much stronger impression) though admittedly I'm not putting too much stock in either other then that both have a stronger chance then most Pokemon candidates. Regardless, Sakurai could or could not have had access to this information already so who knows if he's using it or not.

Jigglypuff was low priority before, it's not unreasonable to think that she could be again. I'm not saying that she will get cut nor that she deserves to but I do think some overrate her staying power sometimes.
My point was that it didn't matter in the long run. Low priority doesn't mean a thing since Mewtwo is being openly considered, and aren't we doing the exact same thing to Lucario right about now?
 

kingmario92

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I still don't think veteran status will give Jiggs a free pass over Lucario contrary to popular belief. It's silly that people just ignore Lucario's popularity ENTIRELY just because Jiggs got in 3 times.

And I thought you liked Jigglypuff? How could you Noah? HOW COULD YOOOOOU!?
 

KingofPhantoms

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I'm not arguing whether Jigglypuff is important or not - I'm just stating that 'but she's Fairy-type now' and 'but she's been in all three Smash games so far' aren't valid arguments. I couldn't care either way if Jigglypuff returns or not, but these two arguments for her re-inclusion are null and void.

The Fairy type thing hasn't boosted her popularity much, BUT it does give her some potential for new moves, and I'm certain players would at least want to give the would be new puff a try. Being a fairy-type boosts her chances through new moveset potential, and Sakurai is indeed starting to move towards newer things.

Further more, Jigglypuff wasn't that popular at the time of Melee's development and release, and yet she still got in. Then she was low priority in Brawl, (or an early addition) and was still added. As far as I know, Jiggs was meant to be expendable if certain issues occured, and since they didn't, she was added.

She got into Melee and Brawl for a reason, and said reasons should not be lowered for Smash 4, even with Mewtwo and Lucario's popularity and recent new forms. And if they don't want more Pokemon reps than Mario reps, there are plenty of viable choices for a Mario newcomer.
 

Hotfeet444

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As another Bowser Jr supporter I'd rather him use weapons from games he appeared in, such as the Sunshine paintbrush and perhaps bombs and bullet bills representing his role in galaxy. I see him more as a quick trickster, utilising explosives and paint as traps.

Having said that you raise a point I hadn't considered. I wouldn't mind if he used one or two of their items as a nod to the koopalings but I wouldn't want him as a representative of them, I'd say his games provide more than enough for a moveset.
Oh no, I totally agree, I think his moveset should be mostly from his own weapons in the games, I was just thinking of a slight nod to his role as their leader is all.
 

Arcanir

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And I agree with you completely. The other reasons I stated however(iconic,recognition), gives it an advantage over Lucario, whose fame will not hold a candle to Jigglypuff's once it goes away.

My point was that it didn't matter in the long run. Low priority doesn't mean a thing since Mewtwo is being openly considered, and aren't we doing the exact same thing to Lucario right about now?
People have been saying Lucario would be a fad since Gen 4, look where we are now. Lucario is still here, still popular and still making advertisements. He's even in a much better position then Mewtwo was back for Brawl. Ironically, you're underestimating Lucario just as much as you're saying everyone else is underestimating Jigglypuff.

Low priority means everything if time constraints prevent her from making the cut. Sakurai put her low enough in Brawl that if time was shorter she would've been cut, "Original Twelve" be damned. Also, Ness would've been cut in Melee for Lucas if Mother 3 did come out, again, "Original Twelve" be damned. Honestly, I'm not arguing her vs. Lucario in staying in the game, I'm arguing your points for her staying in the game period.
 

CalumG

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The only Pokemon characters that are shoe-ins, as far as I'm concerned, is Pikachu (as series mascot) and Pokemon Trainer - who is the original hero of the games, as well as the strongest NPC in the main series, the inspiration for Ash, and the only character to appear in all 5 generations so far. He's basically the Marth of Pokemon.

Come at me bros.
 

Silverjay323

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People have been saying Lucario would be a fad since Gen 4, look where we are now. Lucario is still here, still popular and still making advertisements. He's even in a much better position then Mewtwo was back for Brawl. Ironically, you're underestimating Lucario just as much as you're saying everyone else is underestimating Jigglypuff.

Low priority means everything if time constraints prevent her from making the cut. Sakurai put her low enough that if time was shorter she would've been cut "Original twelve" be damned. Also, Ness would've been cut in Melee for Lucas if Mother 3 did come out, again, "Original Twelve" be damned. Honestly, I'm not arguing her vs. Lucario in staying in the game, I'm arguing your points for her staying in the game period.
Yet Popularity isn't the only thing that gets a character in. Roy and Mewtwo were popular, and yet they were cut. Lucario still currently owns the "Flavor of the Month" Slot for Pokemon, meaning its still most likely to go. I'm not underestimating him, or saying he's a definite cut, but seeing him there and Jiggs not, just isn't likely. As I said before Mewtwo was is the same position before. So we can assume Mewtwo will be higher priority this time around and Jiggs won't? The reason probably weren't just time constraints. Brawl obviously pushed the Wii to its limit, and technical limitations could've prevented some character inclusions as well. Now that problem is non-existent. Ness being cut for Lucas at the time was an option because at that moment, Mother was an ongoing franchise, and Sakurai likely put it along with the likes of FE and Pokemon and assumed it was always be getting new characters. After Mother 3 was confirmed to be the last game by Itoi, this changed the fate of the franchise completely, which is also probably the reason why Lucas appeared alongside Ness in Brawl.
 

KingofPhantoms

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The only Pokemon characters that are shoe-ins, as far as I'm concerned, is Pikachu (as series mascot) and Pokemon Trainer - who is the original hero of the games, as well as the strongest NPC in the main series, the inspiration for Ash, and the only character to appear in all 5 generations so far. He's basically the Marth of Pokemon.

Come at me bros.
You're probably right there.

and am I the only one who would like to see if they switch the Pokemon he has switch evolutions? Like Charamdner, Wartortle, and Venusaur?
 

CalumG

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You're probably right there.

and am I the only one who would like to see if they switch the Pokemon he has switch evolutions? Like Charamdner, Wartortle, and Venusaur?
I'd like to see them switch evolutions - I'd love to see Blastoise playable - but I fear it would be too much work for the developers. Although they're not so lazy as to simply port characters from the previous game, I do think they take a lot of inspiration and shortcuts from games before, making veterans far easier to program and balance than newcomers. With that in mind, it would just be so much easier to reprogram the three old Pokemon Trainer 'mon than to effectively create three new movesets for him, which could go either way. A shame really as I'd love a playable Blastoise... but a man can dream though, right? :p
 

Gune

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Yet Popularity isn't the only thing that gets a character in. Roy and Mewtwo were popular, and yet they were cut. Lucario still currently owns the "Flavor of the Month" Slot for Pokemon, meaning its still most likely to go. I'm not underestimating him, or saying he's a definite cut, but seeing him there and Jiggs not, just isn't likely. As I said before Mewtwo was is the same position before. So we can assume Mewtwo will be higher priority this time around and Jiggs won't? The reason probably weren't just time constraints. Brawl obviously pushed the Wii to its limit, and technical limitations could've prevented some character inclusions as well. Now that problem is non-existent. Ness being cut for Lucas at the time was an option because at that moment, Mother was an ongoing franchise, and Sakurai likely put it along with the likes of FE and Pokemon and assumed it was always be getting new characters. After Mother 3 was confirmed to be the last game by Itoi, this changed the fate of the franchise completely, which is also probably the reason why Lucas appeared alongside Ness in Brawl.
Theres a "Flavor of the Month" slot? since when?
 

Jaedrik

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I feel like he and Ike share similar inclusions due recency being a one major factor is all. Twas' not my main point.
Recency means nothing, every interview we've seen with Sakurai supports this conclusion.

Anyways.
Nobody commented on my roster :(
Greetings, what goes on in this thread?
I have a vague idea, and so hoping wish to show you all an image of my semi-realistic semi-idealist roster that is only part prediction and part bias, but I try to take Sakurai's values into account the most when considering the ideal, I admire his genius.



There are quite a few other characters I would have added, and still a few I would take out if I was going for more realistic or more idealist, and some I'd take out either way.

Some people I was considering adding but brought the hammer down on after comparison, research, and discussion: Kamek, nondescript 4th/5th Star Fox reps, nondescript 2nd Wario rep, Bandana Dee, Tingle, Bowser Jr., Toad, Waluigi, Daisy, nondescript 5th Pokemon rep, Simon Belmont, Phoenix Wright, Toon Link, Paper Mario.
Some I feel may be in that same boat as those listed previous: Snake, Custom Robo rep, Takamaru, Advanced Wars rep, R.O.B., Little Mac.
Representatives in which I feel like I am not well informed enough to remove, but have an idea they should be on the roster: Isaac, Shulk, Prof. Layton, Bayonetta, Starfy.
Any other possible characters I dismissed outright, thinking them neither "ideal" nor "likely" to my limited knowledge.

Each idea I have is to a degree, for example, to a degree I think R.O.B. or Little Mac is in that boat, but they are far more ideal/likely than the others in that list.

Therein is a tier list of sorts, where I cut characters at will shift, as well as their estimate. Honestly, in the end I have no idea what percentages are ideals, what amount of which consideration went into each character, but there were a multitude of factors weighed in instants I have yet to recover, and would discover through inquiry. So, I do not--perhaps cannot--wish to explain unless prompted to expound, whereupon I will gladly specify when specific questions be asked.
I would like criticism and discussion, please.
 

TheLastJinjo

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I feel like he and Ike share similar inclusions due recency being a one major factor is all. Twas' not my main point.
Ah, jeeze not you too. :facepalm:

Ike happens to be one of the only 3 lords that appeared TWICE in the Fire Emblem Franchise as the main character and is still the second most popular lord at all. Just because he happened to be recent doesn't mean it was even close to a major factor in the decision to add him.
 

KingofPhantoms

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I'd like to see them switch evolutions - I'd love to see Blastoise playable - but I fear it would be too much work for the developers. Although they're not so lazy as to simply port characters from the previous game, I do think they take a lot of inspiration and shortcuts from games before, making veterans far easier to program and balance than newcomers. With that in mind, it would just be so much easier to reprogram the three old Pokemon Trainer 'mon than to effectively create three new movesets for him, which could go either way. A shame really as I'd love a playable Blastoise... but a man can dream though, right? :p
Indeed a man can. I dream of day Plusle and Minun make into Smash. (but I'm not going into a P&M debate right now, just leaving that there)

Sorry if I sounded a bit defensive and upset about the Jigglypuff argument before, at times I tend to get frustrated in arguments, but I'm apologizing for it, so that's helping me cease doing such things.

I still don't think the argument means absolutely nothing though.
 

Arcanir

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Yet Popularity isn't the only thing that gets a character in. Roy and Mewtwo were popular, and yet they were cut. Lucario still currently owns the "Flavor of the Month" Slot for Pokemon, meaning its still most likely to go. I'm not underestimating him, or saying he's a definite cut, but seeing him there and Jiggs not, just isn't likely. As I said before Mewtwo was is the same position before. So we can assume Mewtwo will be higher priority this time around and Jiggs won't? The reason probably weren't just time constraints. Brawl obviously pushed the Wii to its limit, and technical limitations could've prevented some character inclusions as well. Now that problem is non-existent. Ness being cut for Lucas at the time was an option because at that moment, Mother was an ongoing franchise, and Sakurai likely put it along with the likes of FE and Pokemon and assumed it was always be getting new characters. After Mother 3 was confirmed to be the last game by Itoi, this changed the fate of the franchise completely, which is also probably the reason why Lucas appeared alongside Ness in Brawl.
The more I hear "Flavor of the Month," the more I think it loses its meaning. Lucario doesn't own the "Flavor of the Month" spot, there was no such thing, it got a spot on the Brawl roster, that's it. Lucario has proven itself to be much more then that as it exist beyond its generation and has proven that time and time again. Lucario has more to him then popularity, he still has quite a bit of staying power and may actually soon match the Kanto Pokemon in that aspect.

Considering how GF is treating Mewtwo, yes we can assume that Jigglypuff may be lower priority then him, especially if we go by the whole "Flavor of the Month" assertion. Also, if you're going to make the "technical limits" assertion, back it up because there's no reason to believe that right now. Same with the Ness assumption, how do you know Sakurai thought "Oh, this is an ongoing franchise, this means that we should replace Ness like supposedly we'll do with Pokemon." Regardless, that's not the point, Ness was the sacred "Original Twelve" and could've got cut just as Jigglypuff could've in Brawl, Original Twelve is not a sacred group and really they are viable for being cut just as much as any other candidate, what matters is what else they bring to the table.
 

CalumG

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MonK4, that's actually a really good roster. The only immediate issues I can see with it are that Zero Suit shouldn't be a separate character on the roster list, and that Bayonette and Yoshimitsu have pretty much 0% chance. Apart from that, 8/10 could be better but mostly solid.
 

KingofPhantoms

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Recency means nothing, every interview we've seen with Sakurai supports this conclusion.

Anyways.
Nobody commented on my roster :(
I would like criticism and discussion, please.
Before I talk about your roster, since it seems you haven't been to this thread before you posted the roster. (which was very recent right?) it's a rather good thing you haven't been here before, you came at just the right time.
 

Gune

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I feel like he and Ike share similar inclusions due recency being a one major factor is all. Twas' not my main point.
I know it wasnt but useing that flavor of the month likely to be cut is a bunch of crap to be honest seeing as neither Ike and especially Lucario have not fit that criteria for about 6 years now.
 

Silverjay323

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The disk had to be dual layered and there was a common problem among players where this malfunctioned, and the game just wouldn't play. The Wii did not house much power at all
Recency means nothing, every interview we've seen with Sakurai supports this conclusion.
Does it? Its certainly ins't a deciding point, but its definitely one of the variables.

It's apparent that people just have their own personal opinion on the matter, and the debate really isn't going anywhere. Subject Change?
 

TheLastJinjo

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I would like criticism and discussion, please.
Well, you have Bayonetta which I doubt will happen and a character I don't even recognize. Who is Yoshimitsu, I've never even heard of it. Anna over Chrom isn't happening, I don't even know if Anna will even be considered. You need to bring back Toon Link and not make Sheik & ZS Samus separate characters. You should have a 5th Pokemon, you have 6 Third-Parties THAT'S not gonna happen, I don't see why we should have an Advance Wars character and I doubt we will. That's really all I can think of at the moment, maybe replace Black Shadow with Toad or Paper Mario.
 

CalumG

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The disk had to be dual layered and there was a common problem among players where this malfunctioned, and the game just wouldn't play. The Wii did not house much power at all
I know this more than most - I got Brawl on the European release date and only got to play it about 6 times before it stopped working in my Wii (due to being a release batch Wii). These days I play Brawl via Homebrew since Ninty doesn't let me play it legitimately.

That being said, I don't consider it a fault with the Wii; I consider it a fault with the ludicrous amount of pre-rendered Subspace cutscenes they included on the disc, and how much space Subspace took up overall. Subspace Emissary is literally everything that's wrong with Brawl, and then some.
 

mimgrim

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The disk had to be dual layered and there was a common problem among players where this malfunctioned, and the game just wouldn't play. The Wii did not house much power at all
The disk wasn't dual layered becasue Wii wasn't strong enough to hand Brawl. Brawl was dual layered because the developers got lazy with it, there is no denying this. The game had horrible compression which was a big part of why SSE took up as much space as it did. Also a regular Wii disc (not the Wii itself) wasn't able to hold what Brawl had so they had to dual layer it and give it room of up to 8GBs, but this was mostly due to how the people who made Brawl handled the game. It had nothing to do with the Wii itself.
 

KingofPhantoms

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Recency means nothing, every interview we've seen with Sakurai supports this conclusion.

Anyways.
Nobody commented on my roster :(
I would like criticism and discussion, please.
My only problem with the roster is that you made ZSS a seperate character from Samus, and Sheik seperate from Zelda.
 

Silverjay323

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I know this more than most - I got Brawl on the European release date and only got to play it about 6 times before it stopped working in my Wii (due to being a release batch Wii). These days I play Brawl via Homebrew since Ninty doesn't let me play it legitimately.

That being said, I don't consider it a fault with the Wii; I consider it a fault with the ludicrous amount of pre-rendered Subspace cutscenes they included on the disc, and how much space Subspace took up overall. Subspace Emissary is literally everything that's wrong with Brawl, and then some.
Yes, I was saying without that, it leaves much more room for characters, but contradicts the statement of him saying that he'll be limiting the newcomers. What's he doing with all the extra space? We technically can have both. There's probably something under wraps presumably?
 

MagnesD3

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I don't recall any "I'm right your wrong" mentalities. However if Mario gets a 5th rep I mostly see Paper Mario due to him being requested from the start and that Toad will get in before Bowser Jr. I don't have very high hopes for Jr anymore.



I don't know. Toad & Paper Mario seem to have better move potential, Toad is more recurring, and althoug Bowser Jr has become a main character, we already have a Koopa, and I know Bowser Jr could have his own moves, but they'd still be rather similar to Bowser.



I notice what we think SHOULD happen can interfere with everyone's predictions. And usually it seems the most likely because it's what SHOULD happen. But, getting a 5th Mario rep is 50/50. Mario has all the reps it NEEDS, and so does Pokemon, but we could still very well get newcomers for other reasons even if it seems unnecessary. It all comes down to Sakurai's own opinion and thus getting a newcomer for Mario & Pokemon is 50/50
Jr.s moveset is easily unique based on the stuff he uses in game and his shadow mario form, imo he is the most likely as he is a main villian now, toad would have happened already imo if he was coming, and paper mario is a spin off character so I dont expect him over a main character.
 

TheLastJinjo

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paper mario is a spin off character so I dont expect him over a main character.
That is not a factor in the decision of Paper Mario AT ALL. It's hardly even a spin-off game let alone a spin off character. He's still Mario. Also Paper Mario is WAY more unique than Bowser Jr and we already have a main villian as well as a Koopa.
 

Gingerbread Man

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Recency means nothing, every interview we've seen with Sakurai supports this conclusion.
I remember in an interview when asked about what goes into making a roster, one thing he said what that he looks for whats hot.

Things that are trending do have better odds. No amount of hope or disbelief is going to change that.
I can't find the source right now, but the whole recency doesn't mean anything thing is something fans made up to rationalize their rosters.
 

KingofPhantoms

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Jr.s moveset is easily unique based on the stuff he uses in game and his shadow mario form, imo he is the most likely as he is a main villian now, toad would have happened already imo if he was coming, and paper mario is a spin off character so I dont expect him over a main character.
If anything, I expect think Paper Mario would represent the Paper Mario series. (they didn't do that for Doc and his series, but I would expect it for Paper Mario if he gets in along with either Toad or Jr.)

And don't see how anyone would think Bowser Jr. would have a similar moveset to Bowser.

Bowser relies on physical strength and fire.

Jr. relies on weapons and sometimes fire.

The only moves that would be similar are ones that involve fire breath and attacks using his shell.
 

TheLastJinjo

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My only problem with the roster is that you made ZSS a seperate character from Samus, and Sheik seperate from Zelda.
THAT was your ONLY problem :confused:

If anything, I expect think Paper Mario would represent the Paper Mario series. (they didn't do that for Doc and his series, but I would expect it for Paper Mario if he gets in along with either Toad or Jr.)
I seriously doubt that.
 
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