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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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Silverjay323

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Basically, it happened more so in Japan. Isaac's popularity is much less than it was pre-Brawl in Japan, while Starfy is the second most popular "new series" character in Japan behind Shulk, according to ChronoBound. Elsewhere, however, Isaac is much more requested.
I do hope he'll get in when it comes to it, but what's ChronoBound?
 

TheLastJinjo

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Starfy is one of the most likely of all. People don't have him because of preference. I hate when preference interferes with actual predicitions.
 

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I do hope he'll get in when it comes to it, but what's ChronoBound?
ChronoBound is a user here who has been speculating for a really long time. As in, he was a pre-Melee speculator. He's also been on some Japanese forums, and as such, is one of the few people here who have any sort of idea what they want in Smash compared to us. For example, Ridley, Isaac and Little Mac aren't as popular there, but they do note how popular they are elsewhere, similar to how we note some characters for having "Japanese popularity," like Starfy. I'm pretty sure some more of his findings are in the info thread, in case you're interested.
 

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I'm pretty sure some more of his findings are in the info thread, in case you're interested.
Actually deleted them a few weeks ago when I was organizing everything. Would be better to ask Chrono questions directly.
 

N3ON

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Honestly, out of Isaac and Starfy, it would depend on if Sakurai's looking more at pre-Brawl popularity or post-Brawl popularity. If pre-Brawl, then Isaac by far. If post-Brawl, I feel Starfy has the upper hand.
I wouldn't be so sure. If Sakurai looks at post-Brawl Japanese popularity, then yes, Starfy definitely has the upper hand, but pretty much every other situation Isaac has more popularity. In the west post-Brawl Isaac has still remained a pretty popular pick, he's still in the top 10 (well, he was like last month, I dunno if he still is Embarrass) and Starfy has fluctuated a bit, and doesn't have low popularity or anything, but still outside Japan, whether pre or post Brawl Isaac has always had more.

Well they've both been without an installment for about the same amount of time, its just that Starfy has the advantage with Japan popularity, but Isaac, overall, is more well-known. When did Isaac's popularity plummet and Starfy's skyrocketed?
Isaac's popularity in Japan plummeted pretty soon after Brawl, but in the west his popularity has remained relatively intact, though ofc it's not what it once was. And Starfy's popularity has never "skyrocketed" per say, but around when his last game came out was probably the peak of his popularity. Ofc that was just after Brawl, waaay before Sakurai started compiling this roster.

Explain why. He's certainly more likely than Golden Sun or XenoBlade.
How so? Just because he has more games doesn't make him the unquestionably more likely character. GS overall has still left a bigger impact and Shulk is a much more popular pick in Japan (where Starfy has the highest popularity). Not to say he's "unlikely", just that he's definitely not leagues ahead of Isaac or Shulk.
 

Silverjay323

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Explain why. He's certainly more likely than Golden Sun or XenoBlade.
Well the difference between him and Starfy is simply where the popularity lies. Starfy DOES have the advantage in Japan, but that doesn't make him more likely. Isaac overall is more well known and has better moveset potential. I thought XenoBlade was very popular in Japan anyway? And doesn't the fact its well received in America make them more likely than both if you decide to go by popularity?
 

Autumn ♫

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Oh, I never noticed. My apologies. I think its great, although I think Tingle is a little farfetched. Other than that, no complaints. (However I do wish people would be more open to making cuts in their rosters, as it will happen)
The thing with cuts for me is that I almost never cut anybody people are expecting, like I'd be cutting Jigglypuff, Falco, and Toon Link.
 

TheLastJinjo

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Well the difference between him and Starfy is simply where the popularity lies. Starfy DOES have the advantage in Japan, but that doesn't make him more likely. Isaac overall is more well known and has better moveset potential. I thought XenoBlade was very popular in Japan anyway? And doesn't the fact its well received in America make them more likely than both if you decide to go by popularity?
  • Saying starfy has no move set potential is bull**** because I could pull his move set out of my butt.
  • Isn't Issac popular because he was an Assist Trophy?
  • Pretty sure he's more popular than Wii Fit or the rest of the retro characters.
  • Fire Emblem wasn't popular in NA when it got added. It wasn't even released there.
Personally, I don't really want to see Starfy as there are much better characters to be added before him and I personally don't care for Isaac.
Again, personal preference gets in the way of predicting.
 

Silverjay323

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Toon Link is the only one who will be in danger IMO.
The thing with cuts for me is that I almost never cut anybody people are expecting, like I'd be cutting Jigglypuff, Falco, and Toon Link.

I usually go with Ike and Lucario since those franchises are constantly gaining new characters and both have that "Flavor of the Month" Factor, I can easily see them being replaced, as they are the easiest to replace.

  • Saying starfy has no move set potential is bull**** because I could pull his move set out of my butt.
  • Isn't Issac popular because he was an Assist Trophy?
  • Pretty sure he's more popular than Wii Fit or the rest of the retro characters.
  • Fire Emblem wasn't popular in NA when it got added. It wasn't even released there.

Again, personal preference gets in the way of predicting.
- I didn't say he has none, I said Isaac's has better potential with a combination of being a swordsman and using psyenergy
-Golden Sun was popular in america when it was first released, albeit more so in NA, since is sold about 770k in America and only about 330k in Japan.
-In Japan, maybe, but not so much in other regions
-But Starfy games have. And This argument could be used vice-versa for Isaac.
 

TheLastJinjo

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I usually go with Ike and Lucario since those franchises are constantly gaining new characters and both have that "Flavor of the Month" Factor, I can easily see them being replaced, as they are the easiest to replace.
Lucario maybe, but definitely not Ike. He's the most popular lord of all besides Marth. And he' too unique. Removing Ike would make no sense.

Toon Link is the only one who will be in danger IMO.
I disagree, I think JigglyPuff & Snake are.

Thanks! Who would other people put as a LoZ character? Or what's the most likely?
See that's the thing. No other Zelda characters really work well. We don't need any more so just keep Toon Link.
 

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  • Saying starfy has no move set potential is bull**** because I could pull his move set out of my butt.
  • Isn't Issac popular because he was an Assist Trophy?
  • Pretty sure he's more popular than Wii Fit or the rest of the retro characters.
  • Fire Emblem wasn't popular in NA when it got added. It wasn't even released there.
1. Yeah, I agree.
2. No, he was popular previous to being an AT and was likely made an AT due to popularity.
3. Retro characters have different prerequisites, and if you think Starfy is more popular that Wii Fit you may want to go look at some sales numbers. Sure, Starfy is more popular among us, but not in general, and hasn't had an impact nearly as big as Wii Fit did, which is what Sakurai values most.
4. And the FE characters originally weren't going to be in the international versions of Melee because of that, but due to popularity among the testers, they were included.
 

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Lucario maybe, but definitely not Ike. He's the most popular lord of all besides Marth. And he' too unique. Removing Ike would make no sense.
Actually I'd say Ike is more the "flavor of the month" then Lucario is, in fact I'd say Lucario's safer then Ike and the third parties. Lucario is still popular and relevant, GF is still pushing him and he's getting advertisments despite his generation being over (hell he even replaced Zoroark after she replaced him on Smash). On top of that, other then Mewtwo (and there's no reason Pokémon can't have five slots) there's no one else really to compete with his spot, Eevee has his mechanic issues, Genesect has to break out from under Mewtwo's shadow and doesn't reach either of their popularities and Zoroark really got hit badly by the coming of the new generation, unless time constraints come into play I think Lucario's fine.

I'm honestly more worried about Ike and the Third Parties because the former isn't pushed as much and the third parties may have licensing issues.
 

MagnesD3

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Lucario maybe, but definitely not Ike. He's the most popular lord of all besides Marth. And he' too unique. Removing Ike would make no sense.



I disagree, I think JigglyPuff & Snake are.



See that's the thing. No other Zelda characters really work well. We don't need any more so just keep Toon Link.
Original Veteran Status and the Friendship card are what make me thinks they be safe.
 

TheLastJinjo

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Actually I'd say Ike is more the "flavor of the month" then Lucario is, in fact I'd say Lucario's safer then Ike and the third parties. Lucario is still popular and relevant, GF is still pushing him and he's getting advertisments despite his generation being over (hell he even replaced Zoroark after she replaced him on Smash). On top of that, other then Mewtwo (and there's no reason Pokémon can't have five slots) there's no one else really to compete with his spot, Eevee has his mechanic issues, Genesect has to break out from under Mewtwo's shadow and doesn't reach either of their popularities and Zoroark really got hit badly by the coming of the new generation, unless time constraints come into play I think Lucario's fine.

I'm honestly more worried about Ike and the Third Parties because the former isn't pushed as much and the third parties may have licensing issues.
That doesn't change that Ike is one of the only ones to have 2 installments, and is more popular than Chrom and more unique. I'm so tired of people ignoring the impact and potential of every character so they can add the flavor of the month. I bid you good day. Just because a character hasn't appeared recently doesn't erase them from existence.

Original Veteran Status and the Friendship card are what make me thinks they be safe.
  • The favor was to have Snake playable for once. I think making Snake a veteran for life is not a favor Sakurai would agree with.
  • I don't think JigglyPuff's Veteran status is going to carry on forever. Especially when we risk and all veteran Pokemon Roster.
 

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Actually I'd say Ike is more the "flavor of the month" then Lucario is, in fact I'd say Lucario's safer then Ike and the third parties. Lucario is still popular and relevant, GF is still pushing him and he's getting advertisments despite his generation being over (hell he even replaced Zoroark after she replaced him on Smash). On top of that, other then Mewtwo (and there's no reason Pokémon can't have five slots) there's no one else really to compete with his spot, Eevee has his mechanic issues, Genesect has to break out from under Mewtwo's shadow and doesn't reach either of their popularities and Zoroark really got hit badly by the coming of the new generation, unless time constraints come into play I think Lucario's fine.


I'm honestly more worried about Ike and the Third Parties because the former isn't pushed as much and the third parties may have licensing issues.
Intelligent Systems, really show a liken to Ike, he's one of the few characters to star in 2 FE games, He even had a desendant of his created for Awakening, when no other characters had that type of treatment except Marth. Plus, he's one of the more unique lords of the series. Fire Emblem can live with 3 characters, heck even 4 if Roy's coming back.
 

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Some would say Impa, but I believe Toon Zelda or Impa would be more likely.
Neither of thos characters are likely because Toon Zelda is an unnecessary "You're over doing it" situation, which might have been why she didn't make it to Brawl. Again Impa is not important enough and we already have Sheik.

Seriously, guys. We don't need any other Zelda reps. The mere thought of a new Zelda characer doesn't seem likely at all.
 

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Neither of thos characters are likely because Toon Zelda is an unnecessary "You're over doing it" situation, which might have been why she didn't make it to Brawl. Again Impa is not important enough and we already have Sheik.

Seriously, guys. We don't need any other Zelda reps.
Impa's plenty important and can be different than Sheik. Also, I don't really like the idea of another Toon version of a character we already have so the closest I would get to Toon Zelda is Tetra, who I'm okay with.
 

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Neither of thos characters are likely because Toon Zelda is an unnecessary "You're over doing it" situation, which might have been why she didn't make it to Brawl. Again Impa is not important enough and we already have Sheik.

Seriously, guys. We don't need any other Zelda reps. The mere thought of a new Zelda characer doesn't seem likely at all.
He asked who'd others put. Not if it was plausible.
 

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Neither of thos characters are likely because Toon Zelda is an unnecessary "You're over doing it" situation, which might have been why she didn't make it to Brawl. Again Impa is not important enough and we already have Sheik.

Seriously, guys. We don't need any other Zelda reps. The mere thought of a new Zelda characer doesn't seem likely at all.
The fact that she even made it as far as she did in Brawl shows that Sakurai was at least open to the idea of including her, she made it further than most characters. And Sakurai has a tendency to revisit past ideas, so... yeah, there's a chance we might never see Toon Zelda playable, but there's also an undeniable chance we might. It's not like she's gotten any less prominent since Brawl, if anything Spirit Tracks and the WW remake have only helped her.
 

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Neither of thos characters are likely because Toon Zelda is an unnecessary "You're over doing it" situation, which might have been why she didn't make it to Brawl. Again Impa is not important enough and we already have Sheik.


Seriously, guys. We don't need any other Zelda reps. The mere thought of a new Zelda characer doesn't seem likely at all.
Yet, Sakurai doesn't forget about planned characters. Bowser and King Dedede were planned for the first smash game, and so were Final Smashes.
 

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Yet, Sakurai doesn't forget about planned characters. Bowser and King Dedede were planned for the first smash game, and so were Final Smashes.
So let's add Plusle and Minun why don't we? I heard he considered Exctite Biker.
Impa's plenty important and can be different than Sheik. Also, I don't really like the idea of another Toon version of a character we already have so the closest I would get to Toon Zelda is Tetra, who I'm okay with.
No, her importance is greatly exaggerated and considering she is a Sheikah, there's no way Sakurai wouldn't make her a clone.

The fact that she even made it as far as she did in Brawl shows that Sakurai was at least open to the idea of including her, she made it further than most characters. And Sakurai has a tendency to revisit past ideas, so... yeah, there's a chance we might never see Toon Zelda playable, but there's also an undeniable chance we might. It's not like she's gotten any less prominent since Brawl, if anything Spirit Tracks and the WW remake have only helped her.
That doesn't change how needless and excessive she is.
 

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I'm hoping that the focus for the new Smash's is on new or under-represented franchises. The three newcomers are all from previously unrepresented series. Three characters is hardly indicative of this general trend but here's hoping. As a result I'd rather have Kid Icarus, Metroid etc get another rep than the likes of Mario, Zelda and Kirby.
 

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So let's add Plusle and Minun why don't we? I heard he considered Exctite Biker.




No, her importance is greatly exaggerated and considering she is a Sheikah, there's no way Sakurai wouldn't make her a clone.




That doesn't change how needless and excessive she is.
the plusle and minun is actually the random slot. Excite Biker is still possible, you never know...
 

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That doesn't change that Ike is one of the only ones to have 2 installments, and is more popular than Chrom and more unique. I'm so tired of people ignoring the impact and potential of every character so they can add the flavor of the month. I bid you good day. Just because a character hasn't appeared recently doesn't erase them from existence.
Personally I'm against the idea of "Flavor of the Month" because it does ignore other things the characters have done. Having said that, Ike did appear in two games but he's much more restricted in that regard compared to Lucario who can keep on making appearances and has even after his generation is over. Ike hasn't had that much an impact compared to Lucario and he does manage to make a better case for himself because of that, I'm not saying Ike will get booted for Chrom but if I had to rate which character was at more risk I'd pick Ike.

Intelligent Systems, really show a liken to Ike, he's one of the few characters to star in 2 FE games, He even had a desendant of his created for Awakening, when no other characters had that type of treatment except Marth. Plus, he's one of the more unique lords of the series. Fire Emblem can live with 3 characters, heck even 4 if Roy's coming back.
You misunderstand me, I'm not saying Ike will be cut because he's "flavor of the month," personally I'm completely against it nor am I saying that FE can't get 3 reps (4 is pushing it a bit but we'll see), I'm just saying there's a bit more going against his return then Lucario's. IS has pushed Ike, more then the usual lord but not to the same extent as GF has for Lucario and the latter has the benefit in being in a larger series but still not having as much contention for his possible spot. While I do feel FE can get 3 reps (and I'm personally pushing for it) his spot is in more contention admittedly because of Roy and Chrom being possibilities. There's a bit more to Ike's situation then there is to Lucario.
 

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So let's add Plusle and Minun why don't we? I heard he considered Exctite Biker.
Planned =/= considered.

And obviously just because a character was planned for one game (which we don't have proof on for Plusle & Minun) doesn't mean they'll automatically make it into a future game, but it does obviously help their chances for later titles. That much is blatantly obvious.

That doesn't change how needless and excessive she is.
Surprisingly, your opinion isn't Sakurai's opinion. Shocking, I know. :rolleyes:
 

TheLastJinjo

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Surprisingly, your opinion isn't Sakurai's opinion. Shocking, I know. :rolleyes:
That can apply for wanting Starfy or someone over Ike.

Personally I'm against the idea of "Flavor of the Month" because it does ignore other things the characters have done. Having said that, Ike did appear in two games but he's much more restricted in that regard compared to Lucario who can keep on making appearances and has even after his generation is over. Ike hasn't had that much an impact compared to Lucario and he does manage to make a better case for himself because of that, I'm not saying Ike will get booted for Chrom but if I had to rate which character was at more risk I'd pick Ike.
Oh, so now it's about recency :facepalm:
 

Silverjay323

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Collectively, I still think Lucario/Ike are the more likely cuts when compared to others because, like it or not, recency does play somewhat of a factor with their franchises for its always getting new possible reps, which also why we tend to go back to Fire Emblem/Pokemon the most, as they're the most unpredictable. That being said, can we go back to the Isaac discussion? I do see alot potential for him or even Matthew.
 
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