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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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God Robert's Cousin

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I really don't agree with Roy, Dr. Mario, Mewtwo, etc being in a poll with newcomers. I know this is the poll's design so I don't fault the poll, but it just doesn't make sense. These are characters that people want back, rather than just the characters themselves. Like people want to make sure they get Ike and Lucario back. They should be in poll with all Smash veterans rather than with newcomers. When people vote for these characters; they are also voting with a moveset and playstyle in mind. It's unavoidable. But putting them in a poll like this would be like be having a story writing contest but Mewtwo and Roy can bring short novellas they have has since Melee but all other newcomers can only bring short stories.
That's a very valid point. The poll does, however, come up with veteran results as well, which we can compare them to.

Mewtwo 927
Samus 882
Zelda 872
Kirby 858
Fox 857
Link 852
Captain Falcon 852
Donkey Kong 851
Mario 841
Yoshi 838
Luigi 835
Pikachu 834
Ness 827
Pit 814
Bowser 809
Peach 801
Wario 793
Ganondorf 790
Marth 784
King Dedede 767
Diddy Kong 757
Falco 749
Shiek 741
Ice Climbers 734
Zero Suit Samus 721
Mr Game and Watch 719
Sonic 718
Olimar 699
Lucas 677
Jigglypuff 675
Roy 637
Wolf 626
Snake 616
Ike 611
ROB 578
Pokemon Trainer (Kanto) 570
Toon Link 448
Lucario 377
So even against veterans, Mewtwo is still the most requested. Roy is certainly belittled in comparison, however, going under characters like Lucas and Jigglypuff in popularity.
 

jaytalks

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I already know Red Hero is 2nd Party :p
You could probably say it's fine to risk two reps.
Since there were 2 FE reps added in Melee.
I don't think Platinum Games is a second party developer. They recently developed MGR:R for Xbox 360 and PS3. Nintendo owns no stake in the company (like it did with Rare and Retro before selling and fully buying the respectively) and I'm not aware a publishing agreement to be exclusive like Camelot Software Planning. I thought Nintendo was just publishing the games. Nintendo actually owns (or co-owns maybe) the IP of Golden Sun for example. I'm not sure if they own it for Wonderful 101.

For the two reps thing; the difference is that FE's first additional character was a clone. Most of the two reps you have are widely different characters. I'm not saying it's impossible, it's unlikely.
 

OcarinaOfDoom

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I don't think Platinum Games is a second party developer. They recently developed MGR:R for Xbox 360 and PS3. Nintendo owns no stake in the company (like it did with Rare and Retro before selling and fully buying the respectively) and I'm not aware a publishing agreement to be exclusive like Camelot Software Planning. I thought Nintendo was just publishing the games. Nintendo actually owns (or co-owns maybe) the IP of Golden Sun for example. I'm not sure if they own it for Wonderful 101.

For the two reps thing; the difference is that FE's first additional character was a clone. Most of the two reps you have are widely different characters. I'm not saying it's impossible, it's unlikely.
Nintendo owns the W101 IP, but they don't own Platinum.
 

jaytalks

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Nintendo owns the W101 IP, but they don't own Platinum.
A source would be nice. I just assumed that they have a similar publishing deal to the one they had with Sega and Bayonetta.
Here's a link suggesting that it could go over to PS3 or 360, suggesting that Nintendo does not own the franchise, but publishing rights, which are two very different things:
http://mynintendonews.com/2013/02/0...-wonderful-101-will-stay-as-wii-u-exclusives/
That's a very valid point. The poll does, however, come up with veteran results as well, which we can compare them to.



So even against veterans, Mewtwo is still the most requested. Roy is certainly belittled in comparison, however, going under characters like Lucas and Jigglypuff in popularity.
Thanks. That's what I thought. Mewtwo and Roy are definitely in different leagues, both in popularity and in position in the franchise. Mewtwo is set to reappear in a large role once again due to its new form, while Roy was added as DLC among other lords. It's just the nature of the franchises. So I don't think it's between Roy and Chrom; it would be more Roy and Ike. And although Roy is ahead, its not exactly a slam dunk.
 

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2nd edition of my display roster http://smashboards.com/threads/roster-prediction-display-thread.324220/page-5#post-15644284
-Diddy stays
-Klonoa out, Palutena in
4 brawlers getting cut:
-Falco
-Sonic
-Snake
-TL

There seems to have only one 3rd party fighter :p

There seems to be a lot wrong with this roster if it's a legitimate prediction.

For one, you also got rid of Brawl's Pokemon Trainer. Considering the Kanto starters are among the most popular Pokemon in existence, and especially since Charizard is arguably the most popular Pokemon of all time, replacing him with the "Sinnoh Trainer" is ludicrous.

Next, it's bad enough that Krystal is in the place of Falco, but there is absolutely NO reason to put in both Krystal and ROB64 while replacing Falco. ROB 64 just isn't happening.

Mew in place of Mewtwo is ridiculous. Mewtwo is one of the most popular Pokemon, and the single most requested Smash character at this point. Definitely swap Mew for Mewtwo.

If another Kirby character is added, it would be Bandanna Dee, not Adeline. She's not requested at all, and Sakurai doesn't like to over-represent the Kirby series as it is.

There is more than likely going to be a third Fire Emblem character, whether it be Roy or Chrom.

This roster lacks K. Rool and Ridley, who are both some of the most highly requested characters for Smash 4. Why aren't they included?

And then comes your Zelda section. First off, why in the name of all that is decent would you add "Naboo+I.Knux?" Whatever that is, it's not requested at all, or even important to the Zelda series, so it probably isn't happening. Secondly, I think that the Masked Link had its best shot in Melee, when Majora's Mask was more popular and more likely to get a character. If you're going to include another Link, why not keep Toon Link? There's really no reason to remove him, barring time constraints. The Link on the Spirit Tracks stage is a different Link than the one in Wind Waker.

Tom Nook is highly unlikely to get in at this point, especially over more suggested and popular characters.

Why give Bowser Jr. a Shadow Mario transformation that he only used in one game? He has tons of other things to work with.

F-Zero getting another character is pretty unlikely, but it would likely be Goroh instead, not Black Shadow.

Where are the new series? Little Mac, Isaac, Shulk, Starfy...you included none of them. I suggest at the very least including Little Mac.

Where is the new retro character? Takamaru should be added.

Also, there is nothing pointing to the statement that there will only be one third party, but I'm not about to debate their ambiguous status.

Overall, I highly dislike this roster, and it would make me rethink purchasing the game.
 

OcarinaOfDoom

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A source would be nice. I just assumed that they have a similar publishing deal to the one they had with Sega and Bayonetta.
Here's a link suggesting that it could go over to PS3 or 360, suggesting that Nintendo does not own the franchise, but publishing rights, which are two very different things:
http://mynintendonews.com/2013/02/0...-wonderful-101-will-stay-as-wii-u-exclusives/
http://tsdr.uspto.gov/#caseNumber=85727861&caseType=SERIAL_NO&searchType=statusSearch
Check under current owners. Says Nintendo of America.
 

God Robert's Cousin

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Thanks. That's what I thought. Mewtwo and Roy are definitely in different leagues, both in popularity and in position in the franchise. Mewtwo is set to reappear in a large role once again due to its new form, while Roy was added as DLC among other lords. It's just the nature of the franchises. So I don't think it's between Roy and Chrom; it would be more Roy and Ike. And although Roy is ahead, its not exactly a slam dunk.
Though it's not a slam dunk, it's still pretty freakin' significant to see Roy get consistently high marks in polls. Either way, with Ike being a recurrent lord with an established heavyweight moveset and Roy being above multiple characters that still appeared in Brawl despite not having been playable for 7 years inbetween, Chrom really has some stiff competition. It really depends on which route Intelligent Systems and Sakurai want to take in representing Fire Emblem.
 

Rebellious Treecko

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Now with Luigi:

I don't know why but I feel really comfortable if this was the final roster despite the major cuts.
We got a variety of unique characters here :p
There are definitely many "unexpected" characters here (Teleroboxer, Startropics, Hero 101), but I don't know if people will be happy with the roster.

I like how there are two Metroid and F-Zero characters, but you removed Peach, Zelda, Toon Link, Wolf, Meta Knight, Pokemon trainer, Lucario, and Ike. So each series sans Super Mario would have two reps at max. Wow.

I want a second F-Zero character, but it doesn't seem likely, given the hypothetical roster size.

Overall, I think people would see this as a "WTF" roster if it was real.
 

jaytalks

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Though it's not a slam dunk, it's still pretty freakin' significant to see Roy get consistently high marks in polls. Either way, with Ike being a recurrent lord with an established heavyweight moveset and Roy being above multiple characters that still appeared in Brawl despite not having been playable for 7 years inbetween, Chrom really has some stiff competition. It really depends on which route Intelligent Systems and Sakurai want to take in representing Fire Emblem.
Thanks for the info. News to me. Red Hero isnt a character I would add yet though, maybe Smash 5. He's gotta get in line behind all the Wii, DS, and GBA franchises yet to be represented

Not to mention he has to worry about Lucina as well. If you are going with two reps, Chrom definitely has competition, but he has the edge (not in popularity but other factors). If its three reps, then I think its between Ike and Roy, not Chrom. And I think would Ike would come out on top of that as well. I can't see a scenario where the characters are Marth, Ike, and Roy, or even Marth and Roy.
 

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Bowser Jr. will probably join and I think Shadow Mario is indeed relevant to him, considering Mario will equip his F.L.U.D.D on his back with Down+B.
Pokemon Dawn -> Johto trainer
I still don't know if Mewtwo will going to make it... but whatever.
Adeleine -> Waddle Dee
Ridley? K.Rool? Don't make me laugh! They'd be so huge in size compared to all other fighters!
Nabooru could join because of her potential moves...
Star Fox: I still don't think Falco will make it to SSB4 because of what Sakurai said; he wants less clones. Falco is one best clone I can find that might get cut.
ROB 64 is R.O.B.'s successor.
TL: I like Opossum's idea how Toon Link differs of that Spirit Tracker Link. I am going to replace him over Masked Link.
F-zero: Samurai Goroh isn't good new-comer as he was one in the assist trophies. I'll let Takamaru take his spot.
Tom Nook: Who's going to be 2nd rep of AC anyway?
I couldn't add more characters because it got lots of characters already...
 

God Robert's Cousin

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Not to mention he has to worry about Lucina as well. If you are going with two reps, Chrom definitely has competition, but he has the edge (not in popularity but other factors). If its three reps, then I think its between Ike and Roy, not Chrom. And I think would Ike would come out on top of that as well. I can't see a scenario where the characters are Marth, Ike, and Roy, or even Marth and Roy.
Based on the poll results, however, Lucina is barely past the notable landmark. Even Skull Kid (god forbid we get into that discussion again) is several tiers higher in votes.

But I can definitely see the scenario of Marth, Chrom, and Ike with Roy as DLC. Roy seems to fit the bill perfectly for what warrants being an "additional" character in Smash Bros. He certainly has the popularity for it, at least.
 

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Bowser Jr. will probably join but I think Shadow Mario is indeed relevant to him, considering Mario will equip his F.L.U.D.D on his back with Down+B.
Eh. I just feel that the transformation would be pointlessly tacked on.


Pokemon Dawn -> Johto trainer
Once again, why replace the current trainer?


I still don't know if Mewtwo will going to make it... but whatever.
Don't worry, he's a good bet.

Adeleine -> Waddle Dee
That's good. Bandanna Dee's a much better choice.


Ridley? K.Rool? Don't make me laugh! They'd be so huge in size compared to all other fighters!
And there goes all credibility. K. Rool has been shown to be no bigger than Bowser. See Mario Super Sluggers.

And Ridley has never had a consistent size, so resizing him to be smaller is no big deal. You do realize that Olimar was the size of a quarter in Pikmin, right? Resizing can happen.


Nabooru could join because of her potential moves...
Literally everything can have moveset potential. That's not an argument.

Star Fox: I still don't think Falco will make it to SSB4 because of what Sakurai said; he wants less clones. Falco is one best clone I can find that might get cut.
When did he ever say that this time around? If Falco was going to get cut, he'd have been cut in Brawl like some of the other clones.


ROB 64 is R.O.B.'s successor.

...What? ROB 64's name just references ROB. Not to mention that ROB is still on your roster, so I don't see how he's a "successor." Not that ROB should be removed anyway.


TL: I like Opossum's idea how Toon Link differs of that Spirit Tracker Link. I am going to replace him over Masked Link.
Well, that's good.

F-zero: Samurai Goroh isn't good new-comer as he was one in the assist trophies. I'll let Takamaru take his spot.
Charizard was a Poke Ball Pokemon in Melee, but was made playable in Brawl. This argument is invalid.

Tom Nook: Who's going to be 2nd rep of AC anyway?

Who's to say we need one? I doubt we'll get one.



And I'd still suggest adding Little Mac, along with one of Isaac, Shulk, or Starfy.
 

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Yes, but why add him when he's neither requested or important, and from an established series? And why remove Falco to put him in? There's no reasoning behind it.
 

MagnesD3

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New realistic roster (although I think the zelda series will receive another rep, I could see takamaru being cut for said rep, heck samurai goroh may even replace takamaru if he finally wants to give f zero another rep.)

 

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I could put Metaknight and Ike there, but would you really care if the others were removed (not from a gameplay standpoint).
Yeah? At the very least, Peach, Zelda, and Jiggs should be kept considering those are Melee veterans. I'm still not excited by the prospect of obscure characters like Muddy Mole and Harry replacing characters like Wolf and Toon Link in a game about "Nintendo's All-stars". You're definitely not going to make any happy campers to be adding Tom Nook and King Hippo when Villager was just confirmed and Little Mac isn't even in yet.

Newcomer series should be kept to 1 character. Larger, veteran series like Mario and Zelda shouldn't be compressed to match the same size lesser series like Kid Icarus or Pikmin. It's like some strange Smash Socialism to make the franchises equal like that.

I know Sakurai said he wants to the roster to a different direction this time, but for god's sake, he's not going to go out of his way to replace anyone and everyone not quintessential to their series. That much is fact.
 

Curious Villager

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People have been doing this "Too Big" joke so much now that it honestly wouldn't surprise me if I ever looked up the word "Big" on the dictionary and saw a picture of Ridley in it.... c:
 

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The limitations of the number of third parties that could be in the roster. Three is fine, but four would be a bit too much.
Based on what though exactly? And how is it that snake is always first on the chopping block? He has just a good a chance as sonic since there is no criteria for returning third parties, and i highly doubt they would favor one over the other, sakurai seems like he would respect each more than that.
 

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It's too big. :p

It has a total of 56 characters (including transformations), which I really don't see happening.
I know but character slot wise it is under 50, so I see it as feasible. I doubt sakurai Is going to do major cuts and I doubt sakurai isnt going produce several new characters so its pretty realistic in my eyes but I do have a smaller list as well.
 

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You're definitely not going to make any happy campers to be adding Tom Nook and King Hippo when Villager was just confirmed and Little Mac isn't even in yet.
Larger, veteran series like Mario and Zelda shouldn't be compressed to match the same size lesser series like Kid Icarus or Pikmin.
Isn't Animal Crossing a big enough series to add at least two characters?
 

papagenos

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It's pretty crucial to Awakening so it would be a great way to acknowledge it and keep fans of both lords happy. It would basically be a two form transformation character. I think more people would be thin king about it as a possibility if there werent those 3DS limitations comments by Sakurai.
Am I the only person who thunks the 3DS limitations comment makes pair characters more likely? As in they are making them and running into problems. I'm more confident they won't cut characters they are already testing and having issues with and instead just find a way around the 3DS limitations in some way. I don't know much about awakening but if there is pair potential i feel like it might happen, just like diddy/dixie i feel is likely. reason being it gets more reps in a limited number of spaces and from what we know of brawl cuts (diddy/dixie, toon zelda) and stuff like pokemon trainer and zero suit samus sakurai is a fan of getting many characters under one selection spot.

and again the fact he's run into problems with characters LIKE ice climbers should really confirm he's making characters LIKE ice climbers.
 

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Based on what though exactly? And how is it that snake is always first on the chopping block? He has just a good a chance as sonic since there is no criteria for returning third parties, and i highly doubt they would favor one over the other, sakurai seems like he would respect each more than that.
Well Sega and Nintendo are basically in bed togehter with how much Sonic is being nintendo only recently. Sonic was/is considered Mario's biggest rival. Sonic also has much more revelance to Nintendo then Snake does. Snake was only put in Brawl as a favor to the person who created it. The only real argument for Snake to come back is that he is unique and lets face it, that isn't going to be enough of a reason to keep a character when there are more relevant character. Snake is pretty much the most likely and not at all surprising 3rd party to not come back. Sonic has considerably better chances then Snake in the regard.
 

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Thanks for the info. News to me. Red Hero isnt a character I would add yet though, maybe Smash 5. He's gotta get in line behind all the Wii, DS, and GBA franchises yet to be represented
After further reading, I still would like more info. From the very little I know about trademarks and copyrights, it seems to me that both are very different. So owning a trademark is different than owning the IP.Info: http://yourstory.in/2012/10/trademark-and-copyright-are-they-not-the-same/
A copyright is who has the right to create and / or sell copies of a particular property.
A trademark is a is a mark with which represents the trade of a business. Like the nike trademark.
I'm not saying Nintendo doesn't own the IP, but owning a trademark does not prove they do. I think. Any legal experts feel free to correct me.
Based on the poll results, however, Lucina is barely past the notable landmark. Even Skull Kid (god forbid we get into that discussion again) is several tiers higher in votes.

But I can definitely see the scenario of Marth, Chrom, and Ike with Roy as DLC. Roy seems to fit the bill perfectly for what warrants being an "additional" character in Smash Bros. He certainly has the popularity for it, at least.
I think Lucina's inclusion will have to be more than just popularity. Her best case would other factors, which I can go into detail about.

I can see Roy being DLC, but I think he would probably still be using Marth's Moveset.

I'm seeing a definite lack of Pokemon generation V and VI in these rosters, or at the very least being too generation I heavy. I don't think they'll put Lucario over having a new rep from generation V or VI. Mewtwo's new form has not been revealed on how it works. I'm thinking he was never caught (in canon) and therefore he adapted himself, so I don't think it's a transformation. But even then I don't think having Newtwo is enough further generational representation.

I can't imagine Sakurai going to the Pokemon Company and just coming back with a new form of a veteran. I think we will see a new, innovative representative for Pokemon like they did with Brawl.
 

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Isn't Animal Crossing a big enough series to add at least two characters?
It's not that. It just seems excessive to suddenly add two characters from a brand new series. The series that do add two characters at once are always pre-existing ones. The only real exception to this is Fire Emblem, and even then, Roy was a last minute addition Sakurai figured he'd throw in promote the next game of the Fire Emblem series. Marth was the only one that made it to the transition to Brawl, however, which should speak for itself.
 

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It's not that. It just seems excessive to suddenly add two characters from a brand new series. The series that do add two characters at once are always pre-existing ones. The only real exception to this is Fire Emblem, and even then, Roy was a last minute addition Sakurai figured he'd throw in promote the next game of the Fire Emblem series. Marth was the only one that made it to the transition to Brawl, however, which should speak for itself.
How is it an exception? :p
 

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Well Sega and Nintendo are basically in bed togehter with how much Sonic is being nintendo only recently. Sonic was/is considered Mario's biggest rival. Sonic also has much more revelance to Nintendo then Snake does. Snake was only put in Brawl as a favor to the person who created it. The only real argument for Snake to come back is that he is unique and lets face it, that isn't going to be enough of a reason to keep a character when there are more relevant character. Snake is pretty much the most likely and not at all surprising 3rd party to not come back. Sonic has considerably better chances then Snake in the regard.
When did brand loyalty become a factor for 3rd parties though? It didnt stop him from getting in before, and it shouldnt stop him this time. Sonic's 3 game deal may have no impact at all on this game, people are just assuming since that and "the rivalry" are sure things for sonic's inclusion. No one can say with any definite fact that sonic has better chances than snake, anytime this is brought up people automatically make that assumption when there is no basis for it other than people thinking snake didnt fit or his ties arent strong enough, when if sakurai wants him in, hes gonna be in. Dont you guys think sakurai wouldnt just ditch one and keep the other? Id say if anything theres a bigger chance of them both not returning, it would at least respect both series and their characters if they were treated in the same respect as guests, while they bring in two new characters.
 
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