Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[volbound1700]

I think Lucario survives this cut but could get cut in the future.

I am looking at Lucas, Wolf, and perhaps Snake getting cut this time around.

 

[Deleted member]

Oh, you mean like how consumers who want newer Pokémon are so impressed with how Jigglypuff is kept?

So many ****ing double standards....

 

[TumblrFamous]

well there is command but that came out only about a year after Assault so it still has been awhile

Geez, I forgot about Command! But yeah, it has been awhile since a brand-new StarFox game. Not to steer the conversation, but I really wish Nintendo would listen to fans and give them a StarFox game. (Maybe they can stop making the exact same Mario game since 2009)

 

[BluePikmin11]

Lucas is not going anywhere.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

I cut Ice Climbers (due to the issues with the 3DS), Snake (for obvious reasons), Toon Link (Zelda 3DS vs. Wind Waker HD), and Lucario (who I'm actually considering re-adding because how unique he was).

 

[BluePikmin11]

Oh, you mean like how consumers who want newer Pokémon are so impressed with how Jigglypuff is kept?

So many ****ing double standards....

Kanto gets all the special treatment in Smash I guess.

 

[Swift Fox]

Sakurai be GenWunner if Lucario was going to get cut.

 

[TumblrFamous]

I cut Ice Climbers (due to the issues with the 3DS), Snake (for obvious reasons), Toon Link (Zelda 3DS vs. Wind Waker HD), and Lucario (who I'm actually considering re-adding because how unique he was).

I'm perfectly fine with your cuts. However, I hope Nintendo will try their hardest to keep the Ice Climbers in. I think they will find a way.

 

[Deleted member]

While Lucario is potentially on the chopping block this time around, people need to realize that Jigglypuff is too.
No bull**** excuses about some fabricated "Original 12" rule or "she's Fairy type now" is going to change that.

While Mewtwo was low-priority and cut due to time in Brawl, people seem to forget that Jigglypuff was in the exact same position as Mewtwo in terms of being a low-priority character. She was just one of the lucky ones to not have to be cut for time.

It's (sadly) likely that she will be a low-priority character again, especially given what Sakurai said about how Pokémon characters are chosen.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Take Two of the roster is complete. I added Shulk, Dixie, and Starfy. Revived Lucario and murdered Krystal.

That makes the roster a good 48, two less than the overachieving 50. Then again, I haven't really thought of some good ideas of DLC.

 

[Swift Fox]

While Lucario is potentially on the chopping block this time around, people need to realize that Jigglypuff is too.
No bull**** excuses about some fabricated "Original 12" rule or "she's Fairy type now" is going to change that.

While Mewtwo was low-priority and cut due to time in Brawl, people seem to forget that Jigglypuff was in the exact same position as Mewtwo in terms of being a low-priority character. She was just one of the lucky ones to not have to be cut for time.

It's (sadly) likely that she will be a low-priority character again, especially given what Sakurai said about how Pokémon characters are chosen.

-Diddy
-Falco
-Sonic
-Snake
-TL

Those are five characters I believe to have lowest priorities: two are 3rd party fighters, one as NPC, one is a clone, one gets a replacement.

 

[Deleted member]

You seriously think Diddy will be cut?

Worst that will happen to Diddy is that Sakurai revives his original concept of a Diddy/Dixie tag-team.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Yeah, Diddy's not going anywhere.

 

[Swift Fox]

Yeah, it's Dixie that takes spot for Diddy. And don't forget that Sakurai has said it'd be difficult to implement character with sidekicks into the 3DS. I don't think Diddy+Dixie will ever happen, leave alone I.C.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Take Two of the roster is complete. I added Shulk, Dixie, and Starfy. Revived Lucario and murdered Krystal.

That makes the roster a good 48, two less than the overachieving 50. Then again, I haven't really thought of some good ideas of DLC.

Just get rid of Bowser Jr. and it's a fine regular roster.

 

[3Bismyname]

Yeah, it's Dixie that takes spot for Diddy. And don't forget that Sakurai has said it'd be difficult to implement character with sidekicks into the 3DS. I don't think Diddy+Dixie will ever happen, leave alone I.C.

if the choice is between Diddy and Dixie then its no question that Dixie just wouldnt get in. Diddy is far more important to the Donkey Kong franchise than she is.

 

[ZeldaMaster]

Who here actually thinks FE will get 3 reps this time around?

If it it does, than I think a Marth, Ike, Chrom is a very plausible idea.

Also, I think Lucas and Wolf should stay, as they literally have no justifiable reason to be cut. Mother has two reps, why reduce it? And for Starfox, Wolf wins over Krystal anyday. I think Lucario, Toon Link, and Snake are definite cuts... but if there are to be more than 3 cuts... I'm at a loss of who else to pick.... I would persoanlly want Jiigs and ROB to be cut, but we as hell know that's not gonna happen...

 

[Swift Fox]

if the choice is between Diddy and Dixie then its no question that Dixie just wouldnt get in. Diddy is far more important to the Donkey Kong franchise than she is.

Really? I remember one new DKC game that Dixie took over Diddy as DK's new sidekick...

 

[3Bismyname]

Really? I remember one new DKC game that Dixie took over Diddy as DK's new sidekick...

and i remember Diddy appearing in more games as well as gaining his own spinoff franchise. and if ur talking about Tropical Breeze, Diddy is still in that

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah, it's Dixie that takes spot for Diddy. And don't forget that Sakurai has said it'd be difficult to implement character with sidekicks into the 3DS. I don't think Diddy+Dixie will ever happen, leave alone I.C.

Difficult =/= impossible.

And besides, if Diddy/Dixie is "impossible", then we'd just get Diddy alone again.
There is no logic in replacing Diddy with Dixie.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Sakurai is a loser if he gives up on implementing Ice Climbers.

 

[Swift Fox]

I must be wrong then...

Impossible =/= Difficult = time consuming

EDIT: Just wanted to know how can Palutena fight? I'm seeing her in some rosters and just wondering how can it work out.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

I must be wrong then...

Impossible =/= Difficult = time consuming

EDIT: Just wanted to know how can Palutena fight? I'm seeing her in some rosters and just wondering how can it work out.

Light spells, Centurions, attacking with her staff, and possibly using the other Uprising weapons. In Uprising, there is one point where you were forced to fight her (obviously in her normal size).

 

[Opossum]

-Diddy
-Falco
-Sonic
-Snake
-TL

Those are five characters I believe to have lowest priorities: two are 3rd party fighters, one as NPC, one is a clone, one gets a replacement.

I'm still wondering who you consider an NPC...the only characters in Smash that haven't been playable outside of Smash are Sheik, Ganondorf, and Wii Fit Trainer...

 

[MagnesD3]

It seems this thread has circled around again to being pessimistic about cuts again. At most it will be 2, and those two will probably be toon link and falco, if even them.

 

[AEMehr]

I just have a feeling that Pac-man is not going to happen...

You see, most of times the skeptical characters got weapons on hands, for example, Wii Fit Trainer got arms and legs and uses yoga techniques as attacks, G&W can fight with objects/weapons from his game, R.O.B can fight because he has talents IRL, I.C. got partner and they have hammers, AC Villager uses inventory as weapons, and what about Pac-man? All he can do is eating, vomiting, chasing, evading...

Well that still isn't a justifiable reason to say he has no shot.
You can choose to believe in Pac-Man or not to believe in him, but saying he can't make it because of a lack in moveset potential isn't a viable reason to decline him the possibility.

Also, R.O.B.'s talents? You mean string at a television while making lots of noise when he moves incredibly slow?

Really? I remember one new DKC game that Dixie took over Diddy as DK's new sidekick...

Dixie Kong is an additional playable character, Diddy Kong is still playable too.

 

[jaytalks]

You seriously think Diddy will be cut?

Worst that will happen to Diddy is that Sakurai revives his original concept of a Diddy/Dixie tag-team.

I don't think Diddy will be cut, but I also don't think it would be bad thing to have a combination of the two. It's not at all likely, but the concept isn't bad, as it's one way you can play the DKC series. With the DKC series revival, it would be a nice throwback.

EDIT: Just wanted to know how can Palutena fight? I'm seeing her in some rosters and just wondering how can it work out.

You fight Palutena in KI:U for two boss fights. She shoots magic at you and can hit if you're close. They can base it off that.

 

[BluePikmin11]

This is just a roster I made for boredom, I limited franchises to having two characters:
Left lots of space for more characters for other franchises:

 

[FalKoopa]

If you're limiting FE to two characters, go with Marth and Ike.

Also,
No Luigi, no like.

 

[Swift Fox]

So I'll have to finish Uprising. I only play as Pit up until Chapter 5 and yet to play as Palutena...

 

[MagnesD3]

If you're limiting FE to two characters, go with Marth and Ike.

Also,
No Luigi, no like.

The cutting has gone so far as to getting rid of luigi... FP...

 

[mimgrim]

So I'll have to finish Uprising. I only play as Pit up until Chapter 5 and yet to play as Palutena...

Palutena is a boss fight, in a much later chapter. .-.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

So I dug this out of Shortie's poll thread.
[collapse="Post #15561427, Myself quoted"]
Alright, here's the data I've grabbed from this.

Mewtwo - #3, #3, #3, #2, #1
2.4 average
Mega Man - #2, #5, #8, #1, #2
3.6 average
Ridley - #5, #1, #2, #3, #3
2.8 average
King K. Rool - #6, #2, #1, #4, #4
3.4 average
Roy - #8, #9, #14, #9, #5
9 average
Little Mac - #11, #10, #5, #5, #6
7.4 average
Palutena - #16 or more, #16 or more, #12, #11, #7
>12.4 average
Bowser Jr. - #10, #8, #16 or more, #8, #8
>10 average
Krystal - #4, #7, #7, #14, #9
8.2 average
Isaac - #1, #6, #4, #7, #10
5.6 average
Paper Mario - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #11
>15 average
Chrom - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #12
>15.2 average
Waluigi - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #6, #13
>13.4 average
Shulk - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #15, #14
>15.4 average
Banjo & Kazooie - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #15
>15.8 average
Tails - #7, #16 or more for rest
>14.2 average
Toad - #9, #4, #6, #16 or more for rest
>10.2 average
Shadow - #12, #16 or more for rest
>15.2 average
Dark Samus - #13, #16 or more for rest
>15.4 average
Pichu - #14, #16 or more for rest
>15.6 average
Dixie Kong - #15, #12, #10, #16 or more for rest
>13.8 average
Plusle & Minun - #16 or more, #11, #16 or more for rest
>15 average
Zoroark - #16 or more, #13, #16 or more, #13, #16 or more
>14.8 average
Samurai Goroh - #16 or more, #15, #11, #16 or more for rest
>14.8 average
Medusa - #16 or more, #16 or more, #9, #16 or more for rest
>14.6 average
Waddle Dee - #16 or more, #16 or more, #13, #16 or more for rest
>15.4 average
Saki - #16 or more, #16 or more, #15, #16 or more for rest
>15.8 average
Ghirahim - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #10, #16 or more
>14.8 average

Which means that based on the collection of votes over time, we can determine that the ranking of consistency of the characters' requests is this:

2.4 - Mewtwo
2.8 - Ridley
3.4 - King K. Rool
3.6 - Mega Man
5.6 - Isaac
7.4 - Little Mac
8.2 - Krystal
9 - Roy
>9.8 - Bowser Jr.
>10.2 - Toad
>12 - Palutena
>13.4 - Waluigi
>13.8 - Dixie Kong
>14.2 - Tails
>14.6 - Medusa
>14.8 - Zoroark
>14.8 - Samurai Goroh
>14.8 - Ghirahim
>15 - Paper Mario
>15 - Plusle & Minun
>15.2 - Shadow
>15.2 - Chrom
>15.4 - Dark Samus
>15.4 - Shulk
>15.4 - Waddle Dee
>15.6 - Pichu
>15.8 - Banjo & Kazooie
>15.8 - Saki
>16 - Anyone not mentioned above

What this ultimately means is that over the years, the most consistently requested characters are as followed:
1. Mewtwo
2. Ridley
3. King K. Rool
4. Mega Man
5. Isaac
6. Little Mac
7. Krystal
8. Roy
9. Everyone else mentioned
10. Anybody not mentioned

This being the case, we can confirm that we have a Golden 8 who have never left the Top 15. This means that they have been around long enough to garner fan support over the years and have kept ahold of their support, never letting them slip into "One-Hit Wonder" status. Everyone else has either only had a fad of support that wore off, is a very recent character, or both.

Do take the data with a grain of salt, as I rounded up any ranking less than 15 as 16, and obviously the "overall support" isn't relevant to the support going on now. It's merely a chronology of the most requested characters. The only purpose I saw with collecting this data is that it may mean something to Sakurai and his team, knowing that the most consistently liked characters will be for more appreciated than the characters that only saw a brief moment in the spotlight. That being said, the Golden 8 certainly have credibility with the Smash Bros. fanbase. To see any of them not make it to SSB4 will indeed be surprise, statistically speaking.

Hopefully that came off as at least remotely interesting to you all. It took me over an hour to manually collect, calculate, and sort this all out.[/quote]
[/collapse]

I figured I would take that data and apply it to the more recent 1400 vote poll results. With Mega Man confirmed, I figured I should make an update to this. By taking the previous data, adding a 6th variable to the current Top 15, and averaging their placement by 6, this is what I've come up with:
[collapse="Recent character placement data and averages"]

Mewtwo - #3, #3, #3, #2, #1, #1
Ridley - #5, #1, #2, #3, #3, #3
King K. Rool - #6, #2, #1, #4, #4, #2
Roy - #8, #9, #14, #9, #5, #4
Little Mac - #11, #10, #5, #5, #6, #5
Palutena - #16 or more, #16 or more, #12, #11, #7, #8
Bowser Jr. - #10, #8, #16 or more, #8, #8, #6
Krystal - #4, #7, #7, #14, #9, #7
Isaac - #1, #6, #4, #7, #10, #9
Paper Mario - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #11, #10
Chrom - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #12, #11
Waluigi - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #6, #13, #12
Shulk - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #15, #14, #14
Banjo & Kazooie - #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #16 or more, #15, #15
Dixie Kong - #15, #12, #10, #16 or more, #16 or more, #13

2.167 - Mewtwo
2.833 - Ridley
3.167 - King K. Rool
6.167 - Isaac
8.167 - Roy
7.000 - Little Mac
8.000 - Krystal
>9.333 - Bowser Jr.
>11.67 - Palutena
>13.17 - Waluigi
>13.67 - Dixie Kong
>14.17 - Paper Mario
>14.50 - Chrom
>15.17 - Shulk
>15.67 - Banjo & Kazooie
[/collapse]

Which basically means that these are the all-time most requested characters as of June 2013:

1. Mewtwo
2. Ridley
3. King K. Rool
4. Isaac
5. Roy
6. Little Mac
7. Krystal
8. Others listed that had went below #15 at any point in time

Just thought I would share this here rather than in the poll thread on part of the users here having more to discuss than just the poll itself.

Things I find that stand out:

• Roy is currently requested much more than Chrom is
• Dixie Kong does not have near as much popularity as King K. Rool does
• Palutena isn't largely as popular as once thought, but still has the extra variable of whether Sakurai has bias towards her
• Banjo & Kazooie seem to be the next most popular 3rd-party characters, even with Namco-Bandai candidates as competition
• There have been no changes in the Top 7 aside from Roy getting a sudden boost over Little Mac and Krystal

 

[BluePikmin11]

Now with Luigi:

I don't know why but I feel really comfortable if this was the final roster despite the major cuts.
We got a variety of unique characters here

 

[Opossum]

As far as Palutena's placing, it could be due to the fact that Uprising hadn't come out yet, when looking at her placement in the older polls.

 

[HylianHeroBigBoss]

Snake (for obvious reasons),

And what would those be?

 

[Bowserlick]

I can see Ike getting replaced by another FE representative only because of the Shulk possibility.

Shulk seems like he would fit in the powerhouse swordsman category. While also offering long range with his sword.

Therefore, if Sakurai has an idea for a new FE representative, it might be worth cutting Ike and allow Shulk to fill the niche behind since he also brings a new series to the table.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

As far as Palutena's placing, it could be due to the fact that Uprising hadn't come out yet, when looking at her placement in the older polls.

I'm aware of that. Understand however that these results are based on "Most popular of all time", meaning that these are characters that have been around for quite a while, have garnered support, and have held onto that support since then. These characters are the ones that have passed the test of time and are surely the ones that have gotten Sakurai's attention over the years.

That being said, I still think Palutena is likely myself, but I'm saying that on part of her only getting recent popularity, she isn't on the same caliber as the other characters. There's no fault involved, it's just a matter of criteria.

 

[Opossum]

Ah, okay. Looks like I misunderstood your post. My bad.

 

[jaytalks]

• Roy is currently requested much more than Chrom is
• Dixie Kong does not have near as much popularity as King K. Rool does
• Palutena isn't largely as popular as once thought, but still has the extra variable of whether Sakurai has bias towards her
• Banjo & Kazooie seem to be the next most popular 3rd-party characters, even with Namco-Bandai candidates as competition
• There have been no changes in the Top 7 aside from Roy getting a sudden boost over Little Mac and Krystal

I really don't agree with Roy, Dr. Mario, Mewtwo, etc being in a poll with newcomers. I know this is the poll's design so I don't fault the poll, but it just doesn't make sense. These are characters that people want back, rather than just the characters themselves. Like people want to make sure they get Ike and Lucario back. They should be in poll with all Smash veterans rather than with newcomers. When people vote for these characters; they are also voting with a moveset and playstyle in mind. It's unavoidable. But putting them in a poll like this would be like be having a story writing contest but Mewtwo and Roy can bring short novellas they have has since Melee but all other newcomers can only bring short stories.

Now with Luigi:

I don't know why but I feel really comfortable if this was the final roster despite the major cuts.
We got a variety of unique characters here

Definitely a reach roster, but some fun retro choices like Mike Jones and Lip. Many franchises have two reps (like Punchout) which should focus on getting on one first.

And a lot of people are putting on Red Hero as if its first party, but I think Wonderful 101 is a Platinum Games franchise like Bayonetta. PG has talked in interviews about why its on the Wii U as opposed to PS3 or XBOX 360, which would indicate that they had the choice.