I'm putting him on Mewtwo's level because of the reasoning behind why Ike was picked, and what happened to Roy in Brawl. Ike was suggested. (Like Roy was in Melee) Ike and Chrom are both worldwide released characters which is a plus as well. Chrom is the new dude, who's in the same seat that Ike was in Pre-Brawl. I don't really see a reason to not think Chrom will be included. I also don't see a reason to believe Roy will be anything more than what he was in Brawl. I don't see Roy getting in without Chrom getting in. But why I think Chrom is getting isn't all that important. Just it's silly to say he doesn't have a substantial support group. . It's like just closing your eyes and saying "No support see". Look at his thread. Look at my polls. He's like 5th most wanted newcomer over at 4chan, and like 10th most wanted in my general poll. He's got fans.
Actually, I'll bring this up here. Someone may find it interesting.
From right to left, going down these are the top 25 choices from 4chan (right) and Every other Smash community (left)
YMewtwo Represents a 6th Generation Pokemon Slot, and Sonic Represents a second character from the Sonic series. What this says to me, is mostly that 4chan puts much more value on 3rd parties than adding remaining Nintendo choices. Which isn't surprising. I will say the results for 4chan are subject to change as more votes come in, but the "Smash Community general" is pretty stable. (4chan has about 300 votes, SCG has about 2400)
The communities I polled were: SWF, IGN, Reddit, GamFAQs, Tumblr, Deviantart, ZeldaInformer, NintendoLife, NeoGAF, NeoSeeker, SerenasForest, Serebii, Starmen, Cutstuff, Wiichat and others I can't name right off the top of my head.
OH AND 4CHAN LOVES WONDER RED. He wasn't an option on my poll, but I believe he would be to 25 material.